arXiv subjects

William F. Bottke

Publications and source records attributed to William F. Bottke.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Size Constraints for the Pre-atmospheric Parent Bodies of Ordinary Chondrites

The study of S-complex near-Earth objects (NEOs), the parent bodies of ordinary chondrites, has shown that they are dominated by asteroids with LL chondrite-like compositions. This is surprising because among the three subtypes of ordinary chondrites (H, L, and LL), LL chondrites are the least common, representing only 10\% of all ordinary chondrite falls. This discrepancy has been attributed to the size of the NEOs studied, which are likely too large to be the immediate precursors of the meteorites that fall on Earth. To test this hypothesis, we obtained near-infrared spectra (0.7-2.5 $μ$m) of a group of objects with absolute magnitudes 20.0 $\leq$ $H$ $\leq$ 29.2 (sizes $\sim$4-343 m). The sample was divided into subgroups based on their $H$ value, and the composition of the asteroids was determined. We found that the dominance of LL chondrite-like objects disappears at sizes of $\sim$31-49 m. At this size range, asteroids with L chondrite-like compositions become dominant, matching the fraction of L chondrite meteorite falls. In contrast, the fraction of H chondrite-like NEOs was found to be much lower than the proportion of H chondrite falls, even among the smallest objects. We determined an upper size limit of $\sim$18 m for the parent bodies of these meteorites. The same upper limit was established for the pre-atmospheric parent bodies of LL chondrites. These results constitute the first observational evidence for a size dependence in the composition of S-complex NEOs.

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arXiv2026

An 800-Million-Year-Old Impact Shower on the Terrestrial Planets from the Breakup of the Eulalia Parent Body

Multiple studies have proposed a substantial surge in large lunar impacts approximately $800$ million years ago (Ma). Some are based on analyses of the ages of large lunar craters, such as the $93$ km Copernicus crater. Others focus on the age distributions of impact glasses returned by lunar missions. A key challenge has been identifying and testing a plausible source for this putative impact spike. Here we use collisional and dynamical models to link this event to the formation of the Eulalia asteroid family, whose primitive carbonaceous chondrite-like parent body disrupted $\sim 800$ Ma near the 3:1 mean motion resonance with Jupiter (J3:1). Our simulations indicate that approximately three-quarters of the family's fragments eventually entered the J3:1 over a $\sim 150$-million year interval. While some fragments were injected into the resonance immediately after the disruption, others migrated more gradually via non-gravitational (Yarkovsky) thermal forces. Once in the J3:1, the fragments were dynamically transported into the planet-crossing region, leading to an elevated rate of bombardment on the Moon and terrestrial planets. Our results demonstrate that the Eulalia breakup can plausibly account for the observed lunar craters formed near $800$ Ma. Intriguingly, this event may also have had widespread repercussions across the inner Solar System. On Earth, its timing coincides with significant shifts in the biosphere, possibly linked to large impacts. On Mars, these impacts might have triggered a pulse of volcanic activity. Together, they showcase how certain catastrophic collisions in the main belt can have far-reaching consequences for the history of the terrestrial planets.

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arXiv2026

Analysis of Karin and Koronis2 asteroid families: new findings and challenges

We use our home catalog of the asteroid proper elements to study the Karin family. The hierarchical clustering method provides formal identification with 3,863 members, but this set also includes objects from the neighboring Koronis2 and Kuitaisi families, as well as interlopers originating from the much older Koronis family. By tracking the trajectories of cluster objects backward in time, we identified 2,161 asteroids whose orbits converged with that of their parent body (832) Karin at $5.72\pm 0.09$ My ago ($95$\% C.L.). This method of calculating the family's age is based on a novel convergence metric that is directly related to the velocities at which fragments were ejected from (832) Karin. We analyze the extent to which members $\leq 1.5$ km in diameter had drifted in semimajor axis due to Yarkovsky thermal forces and find it reflects the tilt of their rotation poles away from the ecliptic, recording the influence of the YORP torque. Karin's size frequency distribution in the $\simeq(0.8-3)$ km range follows a power-law with a cumulative slope index $-3.20\pm 0.01$. Removing members of the Karin family from the original group, we examine the Koronis2 family, whose members are associated with (158) Koronis. We find it difficult for large members of the Koronis2 family to converge with the orbit of (158) Koronis within its previously estimated age of $7.6$ My. Achieving such convergence would require the Koronis2 family to be older than $10$ My, but our result must be verified with a direct numerical approach in the future.

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arXiv2025

Terrestrial Planet Formation from Two Source Reservoirs

This work describes new dynamical simulations of terrestrial planet formation. The simulations started at the protoplanetary disk stage, when planetesimals formed and accreted into protoplanets, and continued past the late stage of giant impacts. We explored the effect of different parameters, such as the initial radial distribution of planetesimals and Type-I migration of protoplanets, on the final results. In each case, a thousand simulations were completed to characterize the stochastic nature of the accretion process. In the model best able to satisfy various constraints, Mercury, Venus, and Earth accreted from planetesimals that formed early near the silicate sublimation line near 0.5 au and migrated by disk torques. For Venus and Earth to end up at 0.7-1 au, Type-I migration had to be directed outward, for example as the magnetically driven winds reduced the surface gas density in the inner part of the disk. Mercury was left behind near the original ring location. We suggest that Mars and multiple Mars-sized protoplanets grew from a distinct outer source of planetesimals at 1.5-2 au. While many migrated inwards to accrete onto the proto-Earth, our Mars was the lone survivor. This model explains: (1) the masses and orbits of the terrestrial planets, (2) the chemical composition of the Earth, where ~70% and ~30% come from reduced inner-ring and more-oxidized outer-ring materials, and (3) the isotopic differences of the Earth and Mars. It suggests that the Moon-forming impactor Theia plausibly shared a similar isotopic composition and accretion history with that of the proto-Earth.

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arXiv2025

Size-Frequency Distribution of Terrestrial Leftover Planetesimals and S-complex Implanted Asteroids

The isotopic composition of meteorites linked to S-complex asteroids has been used to suggest that these asteroids originated in the terrestrial planet's region, i.e., within 1.5 au, and later got implanted into the main asteroid belt (MAB). Dynamical models of planet formation support this view. Yet, it remains to be demonstrated whether the currently observed size-frequency distribution (SFD) of S-complex bodies in the MAB can be reproduced via this implantation process. Here we studied the evolution of the SFD of planetesimals during the accretion of terrestrial planets with the code LIPAD self-consistently accounting for growth and fragmentation of planetesimals. In our simulations we vary the initial surface density of planetesimals, the gaseous disk lifetime, and the power slope of the initial planetesimals' SFD. We compared the final SFDs of leftover planetesimals in the terrestrial planet region with the SFD of observed S-complex MAB objects (D $>$ 100km). We found that the SFDs of our planetesimal populations and that of S-complex MAB objects show very similar cumulative power index (i.e., q $\approx$ 3.15 in N($>$D)$~\propto$ D$^{-q}$) for slopes in the diameter range 100 km $<$ D $<$ 400 km by the end of our simulations. Our results support the hypothesis of S-complex MAB implantation from the terrestrial planet forming region, assuming implantation is size-independent, and implies that implantation efficiency is smaller than $\mathcal{O}$(10$^{\rm -2}$--10$^{\rm -4}$) to avoid over-implantation of (4) Vesta-sized objects or larger.

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arXiv2025

A pre-flyby view on the origin of asteroid Donaldjohanson, a target of the NASA Lucy mission

The NASA Lucy mission is scheduled to fly-by the main belt asteroid (52246) Donaldjohanson on April 20, 2025. Donaldjohanson (DJ hereafter) is a member of the primitive (C-type class) Erigone collisional asteroid family located in the inner main belt in proximity of the source regions of asteroid (101955)~Bennu and (162173)~Ryugu, visited respectively by OSIRIS-REx and Hayabusa2 missions. In this paper we provide an updated model for the Erigone family age, and discuss DJ evolution resulting from non-gravitational forces (namely Yarkovsky and YORP), as well as its collisional evolution. We conclude the best-fit family age to be $\sim 155$~Myr, and that, on such timescales, both Yarkovsky and YORP effects may have affected the orbit and spin properties of DJ. Furthermore, we discuss how the NASA Lucy mission could provide independent insights on such processes, namely by constraining DJ shape, surface geology and cratering history.

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arXiv2025

Orbital and absolute magnitude distribution of Hilda population

The Hilda population of asteroids is located in a large orbital zone of long-term stability associated with the Jupiter J3/2 mean motion resonance. They are a sister population of the Jupiter Trojans, since both of them are likely made up of objects captured from the primordial Kuiper belt early in the solar system history. Comparisons between the orbital and physical properties of the Hilda and Trojan populations thus represent a test of outer planet formation models. Here we use a decade of observations from the Catalina Sky Survey (G96 site) to determine the bias-corrected orbital and magnitude distributions of Hildas. We also identify collisional families and the background population by computing a new catalog of synthetic proper elements for Hildas. We model the cumulative magnitude distribution of the background population using a local power-law representation with slope $γ(H)$, where $H$ is the absolute magnitude. For the largest Hildas, we find $γ\simeq 0.5$ with large uncertainty due to the limited population. Beyond $H\simeq 11$, we find that $γ$ transitions to a mean value ${\bar γ}=0.32\pm 0.04$ with a slight dependence on $H$ (significantly smaller than Jupiter Trojans with ${\bar γ}=0.43\pm 0.02$). We find that members of identified collisional families represent more than $60$\% of the total population (both bias counts). The bias-corrected populations contain about the same number of Hildas within the families and the background for $H\leq 16$, but this number may increase to $60$\% families when their location in the orbital space is further improved in the future.

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arXiv2024

The Debiased Near-Earth Object Population from ATLAS Telescopes

This work is dedicated to debias the Near-Earth Objects (NEO) population based on observations from the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescopes. We have applied similar methods used to develop the recently released NEO model generator (NEOMOD), once debiasing the NEO population using data from Catalina Sky Survey (CSS) G96 telescope. ATLAS is composed of four different telescopes. We first analyzed observational data from each of all four telescopes separately and later combined them. Our results highlight main differences between CSS and ATLAS, e.g., sky coverage and survey power at debiasing the NEO population. ATLAS has a much larger sky coverage than CSS, allowing it to find bright NEOs that would be constantly "hiding" from CSS. Consequently, ATLAS is more powerful than CSS at debiasing the NEO population for H $\lesssim$ 19. With its intrinsically greater sensitivity and emphasis on observing near opposition, CSS excels in the debiasing of smaller objects. ATLAS, as an all sky survey designed to find imminent hazardous objects, necessarily spends a significant fraction of time looking at places on the sky where objects do not appear, reducing its power for debiasing the population of small objects. We estimate a NEO population completeness of $\approx$ 88%$^{+3\%}_{-2\%}$ for H $<$ 17.75 and $\approx$ 36%$^{+1\%}_{-1\%}$ for H $<$ 22.25. Those numbers are similar to previous estimates (within error bars for H $<$ 17.75) from CSS, yet, around 3% and 8% smaller at their face values, respectively. We also confirm previous finding that the $ν_6$ secular resonance is the main source of small and faint NEOs at H = 28, whereas the 3:1 mean motion resonance with Jupiter dominates for larger and brighter NEOs at H = 15.

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arXiv2024

Origin of Asteroid (101955) Bennu and its Connection to the New Polana Family

The asteroid (142) Polana is classified as a B-type asteroid located in the inner Main Belt. This asteroid is the parent of the New Polana family, which has been proposed to be the likely source of primitive near-Earth asteroids such as the B-type asteroid (101955) Bennu. To investigate the compositional correlation between Polana and Bennu at the 3-micron band and their aqueous alteration histories, we analyzed the spectra of Polana in the ~2.0-4.0-micron spectral range using the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility in Hawaii. Our findings indicate that Polana does not exhibit discernable 3-micron hydrated mineral absorption (within 2 sigma), which is in contrast to asteroid Bennu. Bennu displayed a significant 3-micron absorption feature similar to CM- and CI-type carbonaceous chondrites. This suggests two possibilities: either Bennu did not originate from the New Polana family parented by asteroid Polana or the interior of Bennu's parent body was not homogenous, with diverse levels of aqueous alteration. Several explanations support the latter possibility, including heating due to shock waves and pressure, which could have caused the current dehydrated state of Bennu's parent body.

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arXiv2024

NEOMOD 3: The Debiased Size Distribution of Near Earth Objects

Our previous model (NEOMOD2) for the orbital and absolute magnitude distribution of Near Earth Objects (NEOs) was calibrated on the Catalina Sky Survey observations between 2013 and 2022. Here we extend NEOMOD2 to include visible albedo information from the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer. The debiased albedo distribution of NEOs can be approximated by the sum of two Rayleigh distributions with the scale parameters p_V,dark=0.03 and p_V,bright=0.17. We find evidence for smaller NEOs having (on average) higher albedos than larger NEOs; this is likely a consequence of the size-dependent sampling of different main belt sources. These inferences and the absolute magnitude distribution from NEOMOD2 are used to construct the debiased size distribution of NEOs. We estimate 830+/-60 NEOs with diameters D>1 km and 20,000+/-2,000 NEOs with D>140 m. The new model, NEOMOD3, is available via the NEOMOD Simulator -- an easy-to-operate code that can be used to generate user-defined samples (orbits, sizes and albedos) from the model.

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arXiv2024

The population of small near-Earth objects: composition, source regions and rotational properties

The study of small ($<$300 m) near-Earth objects (NEOs) is important because they are more closely related than larger objects to the precursors of meteorites that fall on Earth. Collisions of these bodies with Earth are also more frequent. Although such collisions cannot produce massive extinction events, they can still produce significant local damage. Here we present the results of a photometric and spectroscopic survey of small NEOs, which include near-infrared (NIR) spectra of 84 objects with a mean diameter of 126 m and photometric data of 59 objects with a mean diameter of 87 m. We found that S-complex asteroids are the most abundant among the NEOs, comprising $\sim$66\% of the sample. Most asteroids in the S-complex were found to have compositions consistent with LL-chondrites. Our study revealed the existence of NEOs with spectral characteristics similar to those in the S-complex, but that could be hidden within the C- or X-complex due to their weak absorption bands. We suggest that the presence of metal or shock-darkening could be responsible for the attenuation of the absorption bands. These objects have been grouped into a new subclass within the S-complex called Sx-types. The dynamical modeling showed that 83\% of the NEOs escaped from the $ν_{6}$ resonance, 16\% from the 3:1 and just 1\% from the 5:2 resonance. Lightcurves and rotational periods were derived from the photometric data. No clear trend between the axis ratio and the absolute magnitude or rotational period of the NEOs was found.

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arXiv2024

Accretion and Uneven Depletion of the Main Asteroid Belt

The main asteroid belt (MAB) is known to be primarily composed of objects from two distinct taxonomic classes, generically defined here as S- and C-complex. The former probably originated from the inner solar system (interior to Jupiter's orbit), while the latter probably from the outer solar system. Following this definition, (4) Vesta, a V-type residing in the inner MAB (a < 2.5 au), is the sole D > 500 km object akin to S-complex that potentially formed in-situ. This provides a useful constraint on the number of D > 500 km bodies that could have formed, or grown, within the primordial MAB. In this work we numerically simulate the accretion of objects in the MAB region during the time when gas in the protoplanetary disk still existed, while assuming different MAB primordial masses. We then accounted for the depletion of that population happening after gas disk dispersal. In our analysis, we subdivided the MAB into five sub-regions and showed that the depletion factor varies throughout the MAB. This results in uneven radial- and size-dependent depletion of the MAB. We show that the MAB primordial mass has to be $\lesssim$ 2.14$\times$10$^{-3}$ Earth masses. Larger primordial masses would lead to the accretion of tens-to-thousands of S-complex objects with D > 500 km in the MAB. Such large objects would survive depletion even in the outer sub-regions (a > 2.5 au), thus being inconsistent with observations. Our results also indicate that S-complex objects with D > 200-300 km, including (4) Vesta, are likely to be terrestrial planetesimals implanted into the MAB rather than formed in-situ.

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arXiv2024

Orbital and absolute magnitude distribution of Jupiter Trojans

Jupiter Trojans (JTs) librate about the Lagrangian stationary centers L4 and L5 associated with this planet on a typically small-eccentricity and moderate-inclination heliocentric orbits. The physical and orbital properties of JTs provide important clues about the dynamical evolution of the giant planets in the early Solar System, as well as populations of planetesimals in their source regions. Here we use decade long observations from the Catalina Sky Survey (station G96) to determine the bias-corrected orbital and magnitude distributions of JTs. We distinguish the background JT population, filling smoothly the long-term stable orbital zone about L4 and L5 points, and collisional families. We find that the cumulative magnitude distribution of JTs (the background population in our case) has a steep slope for $H\leq 9$, followed with a moderately shallow slope till $H\simeq 14.5$, beyond which the distribution becomes even shallower. At $H=15$ we find a local power-law exponent $0.38\pm 0.01$. We confirm the asymmetry between the magnitude limited background populations in L4 and L5 clouds characterized by a ratio $1.45\pm 0.05$ for $H<15$. Our analysis suggests an asymmetry in the inclination distribution of JTs, with the L4 population being tighter and the L5 population being broader. We also provide a new catalog of the synthetic proper elements for JTs with an updated identification of statistically robust families (9 at L4, and 4 at L5). The previously known Ennomos family is found to consist of two, overlapping Deiphobus and Ennomos families.

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arXiv2023

NEOMOD 2: An Updated Model of Near-Earth Objects from a Decade of Catalina Sky Survey Observations

Catalina Sky Survey (CSS) is a major survey of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs). In a recent work, we used CSS observations from 2005-2012 to develop a new population model of NEOs (NEOMOD). CSS's G96 telescope was upgraded in 2016 and detected over 10,000 unique NEOs since then. Here we characterize the NEO detection efficiency of G96 and use G96's NEO detections from 2013-2022 to update NEOMOD. This resolves previous model inconsistencies related to the population of large NEOs. We estimate there are 936+/-29 NEOs with absolute magnitude H<17.75 (diameter D>1 km for the reference albedo p_V=0.14). The slope of the NEO size distribution for H=25-28 is found to be relatively shallow (cumulative index 2.6) and the number of H<28 NEOs (D>9 m) is determined to be (1.20+/-0.04)x10^7. Small NEOs have a different orbital distribution and higher impact probabilities than large NEOs. We estimate 0.034+/-0.002 impacts of H<28 NEOs on the Earth per year, which is near the low end of the impact flux range inferred from atmospheric bolide observations. Relative to a model where all NEOs are delivered directly from the main belt, the population of small NEOs detected by G96 shows an excess of low-eccentricity orbits with a=1--1.6 au that appears to increase with H. We suggest that the population of very small NEOs is boosted by tidal disruption of large NEOs during close encounters to the terrestrial planets. When the effect of tidal disruption is (approximately) accounted for in the model, we estimate 0.06+/-0.01 impacts of H<28 NEOs on the Earth per year, which is more in line with the bolide data.

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arXiv2023

Origin and Evolution of Jupiter's Trojan Asteroids

The origin of the Jupiter Trojan asteroids has long been a mystery. Dynamically, the population, which is considerably smaller than the main asteroid belt, librates around Jupiter's stable L4 and L5 Lagrange points, 60 deg ahead and behind Jupiter. It is thought that these bodies were captured into these orbits early in solar system history, but any capture mechanism must also explain why the Trojans have an excited inclination distribution, with some objects reaching inclinations of 35 deg. The Trojans themselves, individually and in aggregate, also have spectral and physical properties that appear consistent with many small bodies found in the outer solar system (e.g., irregular satellites, Kuiper belt objects). In this review, we assemble what is known about the Trojans and discuss various models for their origin and collisional evolution. It can be argued that the Trojans are unlikely to be captured planetesimals from the giant planet zone, but instead were once denizens of the primordial Kuiper belt, trapped by the events taking place during a giant planet instability. The Lucy mission to the Trojans is therefore well positioned to not only answer questions about these objects, but also about their place in planet formation and solar system evolution studies.

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arXiv2023

The NEO Surveyor Near Earth Asteroid Known Object Model

The known near-Earth object (NEO) population consists of over 32,000 objects, with a yearly discovery rate of over 3000 NEOs per year. An essential component of the next generation of NEO surveys is an understanding of the population of known objects, including an accounting of the discovery rate per year as a function of size. Using a near-Earth asteroid (NEA) reference model developed for NASA's NEO Surveyor (NEOS) mission and a model of the major current and historical ground-based surveys, an estimate of the current NEA survey completeness as a function of size and absolute magnitude has been determined (termed the Known Object Model; KOM). This allows for understanding of the intersection of the known catalog of NEAs and the objects expected to be observed by NEOS. The current NEA population is found to be $\sim38\%$ complete for objects larger than 140m, consistent with estimates by Harris & Chodas (2021). NEOS is expected to catalog more than two thirds of the NEAs larger than 140m, resulting in $\sim76\%$ of NEAs cataloged at the end of its 5 year nominal survey (Mainzer et al, 2023}, making significant progress towards the US Congressional mandate. The KOM estimates that $\sim77\%$ of the currently cataloged objects will be detected by NEOS, with those not detected contributing $\sim9\%$ to the final completeness at the end its 5 year mission. This model allows for placing the NEO Surveyor mission in the context of current surveys to more completely assess the progress toward the goal of cataloging the population of hazardous asteroids.

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arXiv2023

Spectroscopic Links Among Giant Planet Irregular Satellites and Trojans

We collect near-infrared spectra ($\sim0.75-2.55\ μm$) of four Jovian irregular satellites and visible spectra ($\sim0.32-1.00\ μm$) of two Jovian irregular satellites, two Uranian irregular satellites, and four Neptune Trojans. We find close similarities between observed Jovian irregular satellites and previously characterized Jovian Trojans. However, irregular satellites' unique collisional histories complicate comparisons to other groups. Laboratory study of CM and CI chondrites show that grain size and regolith packing conditions strongly affect spectra of dark, carbonaceous materials. We hypothesize that different activity histories of these objects, which may have originally contained volatile ices that subsequently sublimated, could cause differences in regolith grain-size or packing properties and therefore drive spectral variation. The Uranian satellites Sycorax and Caliban appear similar to TNOs. However, we detect a feature near 0.7 $μm$ on Sycorax, suggesting the presence of hydrated materials. While the sample of Neptune Trojans have more neutral spectra than the Uranian satellites we observe, they remain consistent with the broad color distribution of the Kuiper belt. We detect a possible feature near 0.65-0.70 $μm$ on Neptune Trojan 2006 RJ103, suggesting that hydrated material may also be present in this population. Characterizing hydrated materials in the outer solar system may provide critical context regarding the origins of hydrated CI and CM chondrite meteorites. We discuss how the hydration state(s) of the irregular satellites constrains the thermal histories of the interiors of their parent bodies, which may have formed among the primordial Kuiper belt.

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arXiv2023

Debiased population of very young asteroid families

We use observations from the Catalina Sky Survey (CSS) to determine the bias-corrected population of small members in four very young families down to sizes equivalent to several hundred meters. Using the most recent catalog of known asteroids, we identified members from four young families for which the population has grown appreciably over recent times. A large fraction of these bodies have also been detected by CSS. We used synthetic populations of asteroids, with their magnitude distribution controlled by a small number of parameters, as a template for the bias-corrected model of these families. Applying the known detection probability of the CSS observations, we could adjust these model parameters to match the observed (biased) populations in the young families. In the case of three families, Datura, Adelaide, and Rampo, we find evidence that the magnitude distribution transitions from steep to shallow slopes near $300$ to $400$ meters. Conversely, the Hobson family population may be represented by a single power-law model. The Lucascavin family has a limited population; no new members have been discovered over the past two decades. We consider a model of parent body rotational fission with the escaping secondary tidally split into two components (thereby providing three members within this family). In support of this idea, we find that no other asteroid with absolute magnitude $H\leq 18.3$ accompanies the known three members in the Lucascavin family. A similar result is found for the archetypal asteroid pair Rheinland--Kurpfalz.

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