arXiv subjects

William F. Bottke

Publications and source records attributed to William F. Bottke.

52 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2015

Orbit and dynamic origin of the recently recovered Annama's H5 chondrite

We describe the fall of Annama meteorite occurred in the remote Kola Peninsula (Russia) close to Finnish border on April 19, 2014 (local time). The fireball was instrumentally observed by the Finnish Fireball Network. From these observations the strewnfield was computed and two first meteorites were found only a few hundred meters from the predicted landing site on May 29th and May 30th 2014, so that the meteorite (an H4-5 chondrite) experienced only minimal terrestrial alteration. The accuracy of the observations allowed a precise geocentric radiant to be obtained, and the heliocentric orbit for the progenitor meteoroid to be calculated. Backward integrations of the orbits of selected near-Earth asteroids and the Annama meteoroid showed that they rapidly diverged so that the Annama meteorites are unlikely related to them. The only exception seems to be the recently discovered 2014UR116 that shows a plausible dynamic relationship. Instead, analysis of the heliocentric orbit of the meteoroid suggests that the delivery of Annama onto an Earth-crossing Apollo type orbit occurred via the 4:1 mean motion resonance with Jupiter or the nu6 secular resonance, dynamic mechanisms that are responsible for delivering to Earth most meteorites studied so far.

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arXiv2015

Link between the Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (86039) 1999 NC43 and the Chelyabinsk meteoroid tenuous

We explored the statistical and compositional link between Chelyabinsk meteoroid and potentially hazardous asteroid (86039) 1999 NC43 to investigate their proposed relation proposed by Borovička et al. (2013). Using detailed computation we confirm that the orbit of the Chelyabinsk impactor is anomalously close to 1999 NC43. We find about (1-3) x 10-4 likelihood of that to happen by chance. Taking the standpoint that the Chelyabinsk impactor indeed separated from 1999 NC43 by a cratering or rotational fission event, we run a forward probability calculation, which is an independent statistical test. However, we find this scenario is unlikely at the about (10-3 -10-2) level. We also verified compositional link between Chelyabinska and 1999NC43. Mineralogical analysis of Chelyabinsk (LL chondrite) and (8) Flora (the largest member of the presumed LL chondrite parent family) shows that their olivine and pyroxene chemistries are similar to LL chondrites. Similar analysis of 1999 NC43 shows that its olivine and pyroxene chemistries are more similar to L chondrites than LL chondrites (like Chelyabinsk). We also took photometric observations of 1999 NC43 over 54 nights during two apparitions (2000, 2014). The lightcurve of 1999 NC43 resembles simulated lightcurves of tumblers in Short-Axis Mode with the mean wobbling angle 20-30 deg. While, a mechanism of the non-principal axis rotation excitation is unclear, we can rule out the formation of asteroid in disruption of its parent body as a plausible cause, as it is unlikely that the rotation of an asteroid fragment from catastrophic disruption would be nearly completely halted. Considering all these facts, we find the proposed link between the Chelyabinsk meteoroid and the asteroid 1999 NC43 to be unlikely.

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arXiv2015

The Dynamical Evolution of the Asteroid Belt

The asteroid belt is the leftover of the original planetesimal population in the inner solar system. However, currently the asteroids have orbits with all possible values of eccentricities and inclinations compatible with long-term dynamical stability, whereas the initial planetesimal orbits should have been quasi-circular and almost co-planar. The total mass in the asteroid population is a small fraction of that existing primordially. Also, asteroids with different chemical/mineralogical properties are not ranked in an orderly manner with mean heliocentric distance as one could expect from the existence of a radial gradient of the temperature in the proto-planetary disk, but they are partially mixed. These properties show that the asteroid belt has been severely sculpted by one or a series of processes during its lifetime. This paper reviews the processes that have been proposed so far, discussing the properties that they explain and the problems that they are confronted with. Emphasis is paid to the interplay between the dynamical and the collisional evolution of the asteroid population, which allows the use of the size distribution to constrain the dynamical models. We divide the asteroid belt evolution into three phases. The first phase started during the lifetime of the gaseous proto-planetary disk, when the giant planets formed and presumably experienced large-scale migrations, and continued after the removal of the gas, during the build-up of the terrestrial planets. The second phase occurred after the removal of the gaseous proto-planetary disk and it became particularly lively for the asteroid belt when the giant planets suddenly changed their orbits, as a result of a mutual dynamical instability and the interaction with the trans-Neptunian planetesimal disk. The third phase covers the aftermath of the giant planet instability, until today.

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arXiv2014

The Design Reference Asteroid for the OSIRIS-REx Mission Target (101955) Bennu

The Design Reference Asteroid (DRA) is a compilation of all that is known about the OSIRIS-REx mission target, asteroid (101955) Bennu. It contains our best knowledge of the properties of Bennu based on an extensive observational campaign that began shortly after its discovery, and has been used to inform mission plan development and flight system design. The DRA will also be compared with post-encounter science results to determine the accuracy of our Earth-based characterization efforts. The extensive observations of Bennu in 1999 has made it one of the best-characterized near-Earth asteroids. Many physical parameters are well determined, and span a number of categories: Orbital, Bulk, Rotational, Radar, Photometric, Spectroscopic, Thermal, Surface Analog, and Environment Properties. Some results described in the DRA have been published in peer-reviewed journals while others have been reviewed by OSIRIS-REx Science Team members and/or external reviewers. Some data, such as Surface Analog Properties, are based on our best knowledge of asteroid surfaces, in particular those of asteroids Eros and Itokawa. This public release of the OSIRIS-REx Design Reference Asteroid is a annotated version of the internal OSIRIS-REx document OREX-DOCS-04.00-00002, Rev 9 (accepted by the OSIRIS-REx project on 2014-April-14). The supplemental data products that accompany the official OSIRIS-REx version of the DRA are not included in this release. We are making this document available as a service to future mission planners in the hope that it will inform their efforts.

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arXiv2014

Constraining the Cratering Chronology of Vesta

Vesta has a complex cratering history, with ancient terrains as well as recent large impacts that have led to regional resurfacing. Crater counts can help constrain the relative ages of different units on Vesta's surface, but converting those crater counts to absolute ages requires a chronology function. We present a cratering chronology based on the best current models for the dynamical evolution of asteroid belt, and calibrate it to Vesta using the record of large craters on its surface. While uncertainties remain, our chronology function is broadly consistent with an ancient surface of Vesta as well as other constraints such as the bombardment history of the rest of the inner Solar System and the Ar-Ar age distribution of howardite, eucrite and diogenite (HED) meteorites from Vesta.

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arXiv2014

Orbit and Bulk Density of the OSIRIS-REx Target Asteroid (101955) Bennu

The target asteroid of the OSIRIS-REx asteroid sample return mission, (101955) Bennu (formerly 1999 RQ$_{36}$), is a half-kilometer near-Earth asteroid with an extraordinarily well constrained orbit. An extensive data set of optical astrometry from 1999--2013 and high-quality radar delay measurements to Bennu in 1999, 2005, and 2011 reveal the action of the Yarkovsky effect, with a mean semimajor axis drift rate $da/dt = (-19.0 \pm 0.1)\times 10^{-4}$ au/Myr or $284\pm 1.5\;\rm{m/yr}$. The accuracy of this result depends critically on the fidelity of the observational and dynamical model. As an example, neglecting the relativistic perturbations of the Earth during close approaches affects the orbit with $3σ$ significance in $da/dt$. The orbital deviations from purely gravitational dynamics allow us to deduce the acceleration of the Yarkovsky effect, while the known physical characterization of Bennu allows us to independently model the force due to thermal emissions. The combination of these two analyses yields a bulk density of $ρ= 1260\pm70\,\rm{kg/m^3}$, which indicates a macroporosity in the range $40\pm10$% for the bulk densities of likely analog meteorites, suggesting a rubble-pile internal structure. The associated mass estimate is $(7.8\pm0.9)\times 10^{10}\, \rm{kg}$ and $GM = 5.2\pm0.6\,\rm{m^3/s^2}$. Bennu's Earth close approaches are deterministic over the interval 1654--2135, beyond which the predictions are statistical in nature. In particular, the 2135 close approach is likely within the lunar distance and leads to strong scattering and therefore numerous potential impacts in subsequent years, from 2175--2196. The highest individual impact probability is $9.5\times 10^{-5}$ in 2196, and the cumulative impact probability is $3.7\times 10^{-4}$, leading to a cumulative Palermo Scale of -1.70.

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arXiv2013

Olivine-dominated asteroids: Mineralogy and origin

Olivine-dominated asteroids are a rare type of objects formed either in nebular processes or through magmatic differentiation. The analysis of meteorite samples suggest that at least 100 parent bodies in the main belt experienced partial or complete melting and differentiation before being disrupted. However, only a few olivine-dominated asteroids, representative of the mantle of disrupted differentiated bodies, are known to exist. Due to the paucity of these objects in the main belt their origin and evolution have been a matter of great debate over the years. In this work we present a detailed mineralogical analysis of twelve olivine-dominated asteroids. Within our sample we distinguish two classes, one that we call monomineralic-olivine asteroids and another referred to as olivine-rich asteroids. For the monomineralic-olivine asteroids the olivine chemistry was found to range from ~ Fo49 to Fo70, consistent with the values measured for brachinites and R chondrites. In the case of the olivine-rich asteroids we determined their olivine and low-Ca pyroxene abundance using a new set of spectral calibrations derived from the analysis of R chondrites spectra. We found that the olivine abundance for these asteroids varies from 0.68 to 0.93, while the fraction of low-Ca pyroxene to total pyroxene ranges from 0.6 to 0.9. A search for dynamical connections between the olivine-dominated asteroids and asteroid families found no genetic link (of the type core-mantel-crust) between these objects.

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arXiv2013

Introducing the Eulalia and new Polana asteroid families: re-assessing primitive asteroid families in the inner Main Belt

The so-called Nysa-Polana complex of asteroids is a diverse and widespread group. It appears to be two overlapping families of different asteroid taxonomies: (44) Nysa is an E-type asteroid with the lowest number in the midst of a predominantly S-type cluster and (142) Polana is a B-type asteroid near the low-albedo B- and C-type cluster. Using the data from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) mission we have re-analyzed the region around the Nysa-Polana complex in the inner Main Belt, focusing on the low-albedo population. (142) Polana does not appear to be a member of the family of low-albedo asteroids in the Nysa-Polana complex. Rather, the largest is asteroid (495) Eulalia. This asteroid has never before been linked to this complex for an important dynamical reason: it currently has a proper eccentricity slightly below the range of most of the family members. However, its orbit is very close to the 3:1 mean motion resonance with Jupiter and is in a weak secular resonance. We show that its osculating eccentricity varies widely on short timescales and the averaged value diffuses over long timescales. The diffusive orbit, low-albedo, taxonomic similarity and semimajor axis strongly suggests that despite its current proper eccentricity, (495) Eulalia could have recently been at an orbit very central to the family. Hierarchical Clustering Method tests confirm that at an eccentricity of e=0.15, (495) Eulalia could be the parent of the family. The ``Eulalia family'' was formed between 900--1500 Myr ago, and likely resulted from the breakup of a 100--160 km parent body. There is also compelling evidence for an older and more widespread primitive family in the same region of the asteroid belt parented by asteroid (142) Polana.

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arXiv2012

A Sawtooth-like Timeline for the First Billion Year of Lunar Bombardment

We revisit the early evolution of the Moon's bombardment. Our work combines modeling (based on plausible projectile sources and their dynamical decay rates) with constraints from the lunar crater record, radiometric ages of the youngest lunar basins, and the abundance of highly siderophile elements in the lunar crust and mantle. We deduce that the evolution of the impact flux did not decline exponentially over the first billion years of lunar history, but also there was no prominent and "narrow" impact spike some 3.9 Gy ago, unlike that typically envisioned in the lunar cataclysm scenario. Instead, we show the timeline of the lunar bombardment has a sawtooth-like profile, with an uptick in the impact flux near 4.1 Gy ago. The impact flux at the beginning of this weaker cataclysm was 5-10 times higher than the immediately preceding period. The Nectaris basin should have been one of the first basins formed at the sawtooth. We predict the bombardment rate since about 4.1Gy ago declined slowly and adhered relatively close to classic crater chronology models (Neukum and Ivanov (1994)). Overall we expect that the sawtooth event accounted for about 1/4 of the total bombardment suffered by the Moon since its formation. Consequently, considering that about 12-14 basins formed during the sawtooth event, we expect that the net number of basins formed on the Moon was about 45-50. From our expected bombardment timeline, we derived a new and improved lunar chronology suitable for use on Pre-Nectarian surface units. According to this chronology, a significant portion of the oldest lunar cratered terrains has an age of 4.38-4.42 Gyr. Moreover, the largest lunar basin, South Pole Aitken, is older than 4.3Gy, and therefore was not produced during the lunar cataclysm.

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arXiv2012

Delivery of Dark Material to Vesta via Carbonaceous Chondritic Impacts

NASA's Dawn spacecraft observations of asteroid (4) Vesta reveal a surface with the highest albedo and color variation of any asteroid we have observed so far. Terrains rich in low albedo dark material (DM) have been identified using Dawn Framing Camera (FC) 0.75 μm filter images in several geologic settings: associated with impact craters (in the ejecta blanket material and/or on the crater walls and rims); as flow-like deposits or rays commonly associated with topographic highs; and as dark spots (likely secondary impacts) nearby impact craters. This DM could be a relic of ancient volcanic activity or exogenic in origin. We report that the majority of the spectra of DM are similar to carbonaceous chondrite meteorites mixed with materials indigenous to Vesta. Using high-resolution seven color images we compared DM color properties (albedo, band depth) with laboratory measurements of possible analog materials. Band depth and albedo of DM are identical to those of carbonaceous chondrite xenolith-rich howardite Mt. Pratt (PRA) 04401. Laboratory mixtures of Murchison CM2 carbonaceous chondrite and basaltic eucrite Millbillillie also show band depth and albedo affinity to DM. Modeling of carbonaceous chondrite abundance in DM (1-6 vol%) is consistent with howardite meteorites. We find no evidence for large-scale volcanism (exposed dikes/pyroclastic falls) as the source of DM. Our modeling efforts using impact crater scaling laws and numerical models of ejecta reaccretion suggest the delivery and emplacement of this DM on Vesta during the formation of the ~400 km Veneneia basin by a low-velocity (<2 km/sec) carbonaceous impactor. This discovery is important because it strengthens the long-held idea that primitive bodies are the source of carbon and probably volatiles in the early Solar System.

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arXiv2011

Dynamical Model for the Zodiacal Cloud and Sporadic Meteors

The solar system is dusty, and would become dustier over time as asteroids collide and comets disintegrate, except that small debris particles in interplanetary space do not last long. They can be ejected from the solar system by Jupiter, thermally destroyed near the Sun, or physically disrupted by collisions. Also, some are swept by the Earth (and other planets), producing meteors. Here we develop a dynamical model for the solar system meteoroids and use it to explain meteor radar observations. We find that the Jupiter Family Comets (JFCs) are the main source of the prominent concentrations of meteors arriving to the Earth from the helion and antihelion directions. To match the radiant and orbit distributions, as measured by the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR) and Advanced Meteor Orbit Radar (AMOR), our model implies that comets, and JFCs in particular, must frequently disintegrate when reaching orbits with low perihelion distance. Also, the collisional lifetimes of millimeter particles may be longer (>10^5 yr at 1 AU) than postulated in the standard collisional models (10^4 yr at 1 AU), perhaps because these chondrule-sized meteoroids are stronger than thought before. Using observations of the Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS) to calibrate the model, we find that the total cross section and mass of small meteoroids in the inner solar system are (1.7-3.5)x10^11 km^2 and 4x10^19 g, respectively, in a good agreement with previous studies. The mass input required to keep the Zodiacal Cloud (ZC) in a steady state is estimated to be 10^4-10^5 kg/s. The input is up to 10 times larger than found previously, mainly because particles released closer to the Sun have shorter collisional lifetimes, and need to be supplied at a faster rate.

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arXiv2011

Observed Binary Fraction Sets Limits on the Extent of Collisional Grinding in the Kuiper Belt

The size distribution in the cold classical Kuiper belt can be approximated by two idealized power laws: one with steep slope for radii R>R* and one with shallow slope for R<R*, where R*~25-50 km. Previous works suggested that the SFD roll-over at R* can be the result of extensive collisional grinding in the Kuiper belt that led to the catastrophic disruption of most bodies with R<R*. Here we use a new code to test the effect of collisions in the Kuiper belt. We find that the observed roll-over could indeed be explained by collisional grinding provided that the initial mass in large bodies was much larger than the one in the present Kuiper belt, and was dynamically depleted. In addition to the size distribution changes, our code also tracks the effects of collisions on binary systems. We find that it is generally easier to dissolve wide binary systems, such as the ones existing in the cold Kuiper belt today, than to catastrophically disrupt objects with R~R*. Thus, the binary survival sets important limits on the extent of collisional grinding in the Kuiper belt. We find that the extensive collisional grinding required to produce the SFD roll-over at R* would imply a strong gradient of the binary fraction with R and separation, because it is generally easier to dissolve binaries with small components and/or those with wide orbits. The expected binary fraction for R<R* is <0.1. The present observational data do not show such a gradient. Instead, they suggest a large binary fraction of ~0.4 for R=30-40 km. This may indicate that the roll-over was not produced by disruptive collisions, but is instead a fossil remnant of the KBO formation process.

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arXiv2010

Do Planetary Encounters Reset Surfaces of Near Earth Asteroids?

Processes such as the solar wind sputtering and micrometeorite impacts can modify optical properties of surfaces of airless bodies. This explains why spectra of the main belt asteroids, exposed to these `space weathering' processes over eons, do not match the laboratory spectra of ordinary chondrite (OC) meteorites. In contrast, an important fraction of Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs), defined as Q-types in the asteroid taxonomy, display spectral attributes that are a good match to OCs. Here we study the possibility that the Q-type NEAs underwent recent encounters with the terrestrial planets and that the tidal gravity (or other effects) during these encounters exposed fresh OC material on the surface (thus giving it the Q-type spectral properties). We used numerical integrations to determine the statistics of encounters of NEAs to planets. The results were used to calculate the fraction and orbital distribution of Q-type asteroids expected in the model as a function of the space weathering timescale, t_sw (see main text for definition), and maximum distance, r*, at which planetary encounters can reset the surface. We found that t_sw ~ 1e6 yr (at 1 AU) and r* ~ 5 R_pl, where R_pl is the planetary radius, best fit the data. Values t_sw < 1e5 yr would require that r* > 20 R_pl, which is probably implausible because these very distant encounters should be irrelevant. Also, the fraction of Q-type NEAs would be probably much larger than the one observed if t_sw > 1e7 yr. We found that t_sw ~ q^2, where q is the perihelion distance, expected if the solar wind sputtering controls t_sw, provides a better match to the orbital distribution of Q-type NEAs than models with fixed t_sw. We also discuss how the Earth magnetosphere and radiation effects such as YORP can influence the spectral properties of NEAs.

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arXiv2010

Searching for Trojan Asteroids in the HD 209458 System: Space-based MOST Photometry and Dynamical Modeling

We have searched Microvariability and Oscillations of STars (MOST) satellite photometry obtained in 2004, 2005, and 2007 of the solar-type star HD 209458 for Trojan asteroid swarms dynamically coupled with the system's transiting "hot Jupiter" HD 209458b. Observations of the presence and nature of asteroids around other stars would provide unique constraints on migration models of exoplanetary systems. Our results set an upper limit on the optical depth of Trojans in the HD 209458 system that can be used to guide current and future searches of similar systems by upcoming missions. Using cross-correlation methods with artificial signals implanted in the data, we find that our detection limit corresponds to a relative Trojan transit depth of 1\times10-4, equivalent to ~1 lunar mass of asteroids, assuming power-law Trojan size distributions similar to Jupiter's Trojans in our solar system. We confirm with dynamical interpretations that some asteroids could have migrated inward with the planet to its current orbit at 0.045 AU, and that the Yarkovsky effect is ineffective at eliminating objects of > 1 m in size. However, using numerical models of collisional evolution we find that, due to high relative speeds in this confined Trojan environment, collisions destroy the vast majority of the asteroids in <10 Myr. Our modeling indicates that the best candidates to search for exoTrojan swarms in 1:1 mean resonance orbits with "hot Jupiters" are young systems (ages of about 1 Myr or less). Years of Kepler satellite monitoring of such a system could detect an asteroid swarm with a predicted transit depth of 3\times10-7.

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arXiv2010

Towards Initial Mass Functions for Asteroids and Kuiper Belt Objects

Our goal is to understand primary accretion of the first planetesimals. The primitive meteorite record suggests that sizeable planetesimals formed in the asteroid belt over a period longer than a million years, each composed entirely of an unusual, but homogeneous, mixture of mm-size particles. We sketch a scenario in which primary accretion of 10-100km size planetesimals proceeds directly, if sporadically, from aerodynamically-sorted mm-size particles (generically "chondrules"). These planetesimal sizes are in general agreement with the currently observed asteroid mass peak near 100km diameter, which has been identified as a "fossil" property of the pre-erosion, pre-depletion population. We extend our primary accretion theory to make predictions for outer solar system planetesimals, which may also have a preferred size in the 100km diameter range. We estimate formation rates of planetesimals and assess the conditions needed to match estimates of both asteroid and Kuiper Belt Object (KBO) formation rates. For nebula parameters that satisfy observed mass accretion rates of Myr-old protoplanetary nebulae, the scenario is roughly consistent with not only the "fossil" sizes of the asteroids, and their estimated production rates, but also with the observed spread in formation ages of chondrules in a given chondrite, and with a tolerably small radial diffusive mixing during this time between formation and accretion (the model naturally helps explain the peculiar size distribution of chondrules within such objects). The scenario also produces 10-100km diameter primary KBOs. The optimum range of parameters, however, represents a higher gas density and fractional abundance of solids, and a smaller difference between keplerian and pressure-supported orbital velocities, than "canonical" models of the solar nebula. We discuss several potential explanations for these differences.

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arXiv2009

Cometary Origin of the Zodiacal Cloud and Carbonaceous Micrometeorites

The zodiacal cloud is a thick circumsolar disk of small debris particles produced by asteroid collisions and comets. Here, we present a zodiacal cloud model based on the orbital properties and lifetimes of comets and asteroids, and on the dynamical evolution of dust after ejection. The model is quantitatively constrained by IRAS observations of thermal emission, but also qualitatively consistent with other zodiacal cloud observations. We find that 85-95% of the observed mid-infrared emission is produced by particles from the Jupiter-family comets (JFCs) and $<$10% by dust from long period comets. Asteroidal dust is found to be present at $<$10%. We suggest that spontaneous disruptions of JFCs, rather than the usual cometary activity driven by sublimating volatiles, is the main mechanism that librates cometary particles into the zodiacal cloud. Our results imply that JFC particles represent $\sim$85% of the total mass influx at Earth. Since their atmospheric entry speeds are typically low ($\approx$14.5 km s$^{-1}$ mean for D=100-200 $μ$m with $\approx$12 km s$^{-1}$ being the most common case), many JFC grains should survive frictional heating and land on the Earth's surface. This explains why most micrometeorites collected in antarctic ice have primitive carbonaceous composition. The present mass of the inner zodiacal cloud at $<$5 AU is estimated to be 1-$2\times10^{19}$ g, mainly in D=100-200 $μ$m particles. The inner zodiacal cloud should have been $>10^4$ times brighter during the Late Heavy Bombardment (LHB) epoch $\approx$3.8 Gyr ago, when the outer planets scattered numerous comets into the inner solar system. The bright debris disks with a large 24-$μ$m excess observed around mature stars may be an indication of massive cometary populations existing in those systems.

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