arXiv subjects

William J. Borucki

Publications and source records attributed to William J. Borucki.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Why Estimating $η_\oplus$ is Difficult: A Kepler-Centric Perspective

$η_{\oplus}$, the occurrence rate of rocky habitable zone exoplanets orbiting Sun-like stars, is of great interest to both the astronomical community and the general public. The Kepler space telescope has made it possible to estimate $η_{\oplus}$, but estimates by different groups vary by more than an order of magnitude. We identify several causes for this range of estimates. We first review why, despite being designed to estimate $η_{\oplus}$, Kepler's observations are not sufficient for a high-confidence estimate, due to Kepler's detection limit coinciding with the $η_{\oplus}$ regime. This results in a need to infer $η_{\oplus}$, for example extrapolating from a regime of non-habitable zone, non-rocky exoplanets. We examine two broad classes of causes that can account for the large discrepancy in $η_\oplus$ found in the literature: a) differences in definitions and input data between studies, and b) fundamental limits in Kepler data that lead to large uncertainties and poor accuracy. We highlight the risk of large biases when using extrapolation to describe small exoplanet populations in the habitable zone. We discuss how $η_{\oplus}$ estimates based on Kepler data can be improved, such as reprocessing Kepler data for more complete, higher-reliability detections and better exoplanet catalog characterization. We briefly survey upcoming space telescopes capable of measuring $η_{\oplus}$, and how they can be used to supplement Kepler data.

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arXiv2023

Exoplanet Science From {\it Kepler}

The Kepler spacecraft, whose single instrument was a 0.95 m diameter wide-field telescope, operated in a heliocentric orbit for nearly a decade, returning a wealth of data that have revolutionized exoplanet science. Kepler data have been used to discover thousands of planets, including hundreds of multi-planet systems. Kepler discoveries have greatly expanded the diversity of known exoplanets and planetary system properties. Moreover, Kepler has provided the best estimates of exoplanet occurrence rates as functions of planetary sizes, orbital periods and stellar type, with precise values for planets with $P \lesssim 1$ yr. We provide herein an overview of the mission and its major findings regarding the occurrence rates of planets, the mass-radius relationship for exoplanets and the architectures of planetary systems.

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arXiv2020

The Occurrence of Rocky Habitable Zone Planets Around Solar-Like Stars from Kepler Data

We present occurrence rates for rocky planets in the habitable zones (HZ) of main-sequence dwarf stars based on the Kepler DR25 planet candidate catalog and Gaia-based stellar properties. We provide the first analysis in terms of star-dependent instellation flux, which allows us to track HZ planets. We define $η_\oplus$ as the HZ occurrence of planets with radius between 0.5 and 1.5 $R_\oplus$ orbiting stars with effective temperatures between 4800 K and 6300 K. We find that $η_\oplus$ for the conservative HZ is between $0.37^{+0.48}_{-0.21}$ (errors reflect 68\% credible intervals) and $0.60^{+0.90}_{-0.36}$ planets per star, while the optimistic HZ occurrence is between $0.58^{+0.73}_{-0.33}$ and $0.88^{+1.28}_{-0.51}$ planets per star. These bounds reflect two extreme assumptions about the extrapolation of completeness beyond orbital periods where DR25 completeness data are available. The large uncertainties are due to the small number of detected small HZ planets. We find similar occurrence rates using both a Poisson likelihood Bayesian analysis and Approximate Bayesian Computation. Our results are corrected for catalog completeness and reliability. Both completeness and the planet occurrence rate are dependent on stellar effective temperature. We also present occurrence rates for various stellar populations and planet size ranges. We estimate with $95\%$ confidence that, on average, the nearest HZ planet around G and K dwarfs is about 6 pc away, and there are about 4 HZ rocky planets around G and K dwarfs within 10 pc of the Sun.

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arXiv2020

Science Merit Function for the KEPLER Mission

The Kepler Mission was a NASA Discovery-class mission designed to continuously monitor the brightness of at least 100,000 stars to determine the frequency of Earth-size and larger planets orbiting other stars. Once the Kepler proposal was chosen for a flight opportunity, it was necessary to optimize the design to accomplish the ambitious goals specified in the proposal and still stay within the available resources. To maximize the science return from the mission, a merit function (MF) was constructed that relates the science value (as determined by the PI and the Science Team) to the chosen mission characteristics and to models of the planetary and stellar systems. This MF served several purposes; prediction of the science results of the proposed mission, effects of varying the values of the mission parameters to increase the science product or to reduce the mission costs, and assessment of risks. The Merit Function was also valuable for the purposes of advocating the Mission by illustrating its expected capability. Later, it was used to keep management informed of the changing mission capability as trade-offs and mission down-sizing occurred. The MF consisted of models of the stellar environment, assumed exoplanet characteristics and distributions, parameter values for the mission point-design, and equations that related the science value to the predicted number and distributions of detected exoplanets. A description of the MF model and representative results are presented.

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arXiv2018

Planetary Candidates Observed by Kepler. VIII. A Fully Automated Catalog With Measured Completeness and Reliability Based on Data Release 25

We present the Kepler Object of Interest (KOI) catalog of transiting exoplanets based on searching four years of Kepler time series photometry (Data Release 25, Q1-Q17). The catalog contains 8054 KOIs of which 4034 are planet candidates with periods between 0.25 and 632 days. Of these candidates, 219 are new and include two in multi-planet systems (KOI-82.06 and KOI-2926.05), and ten high-reliability, terrestrial-size, habitable zone candidates. This catalog was created using a tool called the Robovetter which automatically vets the DR25 Threshold Crossing Events (TCEs, Twicken et al. 2016). The Robovetter also vetted simulated data sets and measured how well it was able to separate TCEs caused by noise from those caused by low signal-to-noise transits. We discusses the Robovetter and the metrics it uses to sort TCEs. For orbital periods less than 100 days the Robovetter completeness (the fraction of simulated transits that are determined to be planet candidates) across all observed stars is greater than 85%. For the same period range, the catalog reliability (the fraction of candidates that are not due to instrumental or stellar noise) is greater than 98%. However, for low signal-to-noise candidates between 200 and 500 days around FGK dwarf stars, the Robovetter is 76.7% complete and the catalog is 50.5% reliable. The KOI catalog, the transit fits and all of the simulated data used to characterize this catalog are available at the NASA Exoplanet Archive.

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arXiv2017

Validation of small Kepler transiting planet candidates in or near the habitable zone

A main goal of NASA's Kepler Mission is to establish the frequency of potentially habitable Earth-size planets (eta Earth). Relatively few such candidates identified by the mission can be confirmed to be rocky via dynamical measurement of their mass. Here we report an effort to validate 18 of them statistically using the BLENDER technique, by showing that the likelihood they are true planets is far greater than that of a false positive. Our analysis incorporates follow-up observations including high-resolution optical and near-infrared spectroscopy, high-resolution imaging, and information from the analysis of the flux centroids of the Kepler observations themselves. While many of these candidates have been previously validated by others, the confidence levels reported typically ignore the possibility that the planet may transit a different star than the target along the same line of sight. If that were the case, a planet that appears small enough to be rocky may actually be considerably larger and therefore less interesting from the point of view of habitability. We take this into consideration here, and are able to validate 15 of our candidates at a 99.73% (3 sigma) significance level or higher, and the other three at slightly lower confidence. We characterize the GKM host stars using available ground-based observations and provide updated parameters for the planets, with sizes between 0.8 and 2.9 Earth radii. Seven of them (KOI-0438.02, 0463.01, 2418.01, 2626.01, 3282.01, 4036.01, and 5856.01) have a better than 50% chance of being smaller than 2 Earth radii and being in the habitable zone of their host stars.

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arXiv2016

A Catalog of Kepler Habitable Zone Exoplanet Candidates

The NASA Kepler mission has discovered thousands of new planetary candidates, many of which have been confirmed through follow-up observations. A primary goal of the mission is to determine the occurrance rate of terrestrial-size planets within the Habitable Zone (HZ) of their host stars. Here we provide a list of HZ exoplanet candidates from the Kepler Data Release 24 Q1-Q17 data vetting process. This work was undertaken as part of the Kepler Habitable Zone Working Group. We use a variety of criteria regarding HZ boundaries and planetary sizes to produce complete lists of HZ candidates, including a catalog of 104 candidates within the optimistic HZ and 20 candidates with radii less than two Earth radii within the conservative HZ. We cross-match our HZ candidates with the Data Release 25 stellar properties and confirmed planet properties to provide robust stellar parameters and candidate dispositions. We also include false positive probabilities recently calculated by Morton et al. (2016) for each of the candidates within our catalogs to aid in their validation. Finally, we performed dynamical analysis simulations for multi-planet systems that contain candidates with radii less than two Earth radii as a step toward validation of those systems.

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arXiv2016

Kepler-1647b: the largest and longest-period Kepler transiting circumbinary planet

We report the discovery of a new Kepler transiting circumbinary planet (CBP). This latest addition to the still-small family of CBPs defies the current trend of known short-period planets orbiting near the stability limit of binary stars. Unlike the previous discoveries, the planet revolving around the eclipsing binary system Kepler-1647 has a very long orbital period (~1100 days) and was at conjunction only twice during the Kepler mission lifetime. Due to the singular configuration of the system, Kepler-1647b is not only the longest-period transiting CBP at the time of writing, but also one of the longest-period transiting planets. With a radius of 1.06+/-0.01 RJup it is also the largest CBP to date. The planet produced three transits in the light-curve of Kepler-1647 (one of them during an eclipse, creating a syzygy) and measurably perturbed the times of the stellar eclipses, allowing us to measure its mass to be 1.52+/-0.65 MJup. The planet revolves around an 11-day period eclipsing binary consisting of two Solar-mass stars on a slightly inclined, mildly eccentric (e_bin = 0.16), spin-synchronized orbit. Despite having an orbital period three times longer than Earth's, Kepler-1647b is in the conservative habitable zone of the binary star throughout its orbit.

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arXiv2016

Planetary Candidates Observed by Kepler. VII. The First Fully Uniform Catalog Based on The Entire 48 Month Dataset (Q1-Q17 DR24)

We present the seventh Kepler planet candidate catalog, which is the first to be based on the entire, uniformly processed, 48 month Kepler dataset. This is the first fully automated catalog, employing robotic vetting procedures to uniformly evaluate every periodic signal detected by the Q1-Q17 Data Release 24 (DR24) Kepler pipeline. While we prioritize uniform vetting over the absolute correctness of individual objects, we find that our robotic vetting is overall comparable to, and in most cases is superior to, the human vetting procedures employed by past catalogs. This catalog is the first to utilize artificial transit injection to evaluate the performance of our vetting procedures and quantify potential biases, which are essential for accurate computation of planetary occurrence rates. With respect to the cumulative Kepler Object of Interest (KOI) catalog, we designate 1,478 new KOIs, of which 402 are dispositioned as planet candidates (PCs). Also, 237 KOIs dispositioned as false positives (FPs) in previous Kepler catalogs have their disposition changed to PC and 118 PCs have their disposition changed to FP. This brings the total number of known KOIs to 8,826 and PCs to 4,696. We compare the Q1-Q17 DR24 KOI catalog to previous KOI catalogs, as well as ancillary Kepler catalogs, finding good agreement between them. We highlight new PCs that are both potentially rocky and potentially in the habitable zone of their host stars, many of which orbit solar-type stars. This work represents significant progress in accurately determining the fraction of Earth-size planets in the habitable zone of Sun-like stars. The full catalog is publicly available at the NASA Exoplanet Archive.

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arXiv2015

Discovery and Validation of Kepler-452b: A 1.6-Re Super Earth Exoplanet in the Habitable Zone of a G2 Star

We report on the discovery and validation of Kepler-452b, a transiting planet identified by a search through the 4 years of data collected by NASA's Kepler Mission. This possibly rocky 1.63$^{+0.23}_{-0.20}$ R$_\oplus$ planet orbits its G2 host star every 384.843$^{+0.007}_{0.012}$ days, the longest orbital period for a small (R$_p$ < 2 R$_\oplus$) transiting exoplanet to date. The likelihood that this planet has a rocky composition lies between 49% and 62%. The star has an effective temperature of 5757$\pm$85 K and a log g of 4.32$\pm$0.09. At a mean orbital separation of 1.046$^{+0.019}_{-0.015}$ AU, this small planet is well within the optimistic habitable zone of its star (recent Venus/early Mars), experiencing only 10% more flux than Earth receives from the Sun today, and slightly outside the conservative habitable zone (runaway greenhouse/maximum greenhouse). The star is slightly larger and older than the Sun, with a present radius of 1.11$^{+0.15}_{-0.09}$ R$_\odot$ and an estimated age of 6 Gyr. Thus, Kepler-452b has likely always been in the habitable zone and should remain there for another 3 Gyr.

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arXiv2015

Terrestrial Planet Occurrence Rates for the Kepler GK Dwarf Sample

We measure planet occurrence rates using the planet candidates discovered by the Q1-Q16 Kepler pipeline search. This study examines planet occurrence rates for the Kepler GK dwarf target sample for planet radii, 0.75<Rp<2.5 Rearth, and orbital periods, 50<Porb<300 days, with an emphasis on a thorough exploration and identification of the most important sources of systematic uncertainties. Integrating over this parameter space, we measure an occurrence rate of F=0.77 planets per star, with an allowed range of 0.3<F<1.9. The allowed range takes into account both statistical and systematic uncertainties, and values of F beyond the allowed range are significantly in disagreement with our analysis. We generally find higher planet occurrence rates and a steeper increase in planet occurrence rates towards small planets than previous studies of the Kepler GK dwarf sample. Through extrapolation, we find that the one year orbital period terrestrial planet occurrence rate, zeta_1=0.1, with an allowed range of 0.01<zeta_1<2, where zeta_1 is defined as the number of planets per star within 20% of the Rp and Porb of Earth. For G dwarf hosts, the zeta_1 parameter space is a subset of the larger eta_earth parameter space, thus zeta_1 places a lower limit on eta_earth for G dwarf hosts. From our analysis, we identify the leading sources of systematics impacting Kepler occurrence rate determinations as: reliability of the planet candidate sample, planet radii, pipeline completeness, and stellar parameters.

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arXiv2015

Low False-Positive Rate of Kepler Candidates Estimated From A Combination Of Spitzer And Follow-Up Observations

(Abridged) NASA's Kepler mission has provided several thousand transiting planet candidates, yet only a small subset have been confirmed as true planets. Therefore, the most fundamental question about these candidates is the fraction of bona fide planets. Estimating the rate of false positives of the overall Kepler sample is necessary to derive the planet occurrence rate. We present the results from two large observational campaigns that were conducted with the Spitzer telescope during the the Kepler mission. These observations are dedicated to estimating the false positive rate (FPR) amongst the Kepler candidates. We select a sub-sample of 51 candidates, spanning wide ranges in stellar, orbital and planetary parameter space, and we observe their transits with Spitzer at 4.5 microns. We use these observations to measures the candidate's transit depths and infrared magnitudes. A bandpass-dependent depth alerts us to the potential presence of a blending star that could be the source of the observed eclipse: a false-positive scenario. For most of the candidates (85%), the transit depths measured with Kepler are consistent with the depths measured with Spitzer as expected for planetary objects, while we find that the most discrepant measurements are due to the presence of unresolved stars that dilute the photometry. The Spitzer constraints on their own yield FPRs between 5-40%, depending on the KOIs. By considering the population of the Kepler field stars, and by combining follow-up observations (imaging) when available, we find that the overall FPR of our sample is low. The measured upper limit on the FPR of our sample is 8.8% at a confidence level of 3 sigma. This observational result, which uses the achromatic property of planetary transit signals that is not investigated by the Kepler observations, provides an independent indication that Kepler's false positive rate is low.

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arXiv2015

Planetary Candidates Observed by Kepler V: Planet Sample from Q1-Q12 (36 Months)

The Kepler mission discovered 2842 exoplanet candidates with 2 years of data. We provide updates to the Kepler planet candidate sample based upon 3 years (Q1-Q12) of data. Through a series of tests to exclude false-positives, primarily caused by eclipsing binary stars and instrumental systematics, 855 additional planetary candidates have been discovered, bringing the total number known to 3697. We provide revised transit parameters and accompanying posterior distributions based on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm for the cumulative catalogue of Kepler Objects of Interest. There are now 130 candidates in the cumulative catalogue that receive less than twice the flux the Earth receives and more than 1100 have a radius less than 1.5 Rearth. There are now a dozen candidates meeting both criteria, roughly doubling the number of candidate Earth analogs. A majority of planetary candidates have a high probability of being bonafide planets, however, there are populations of likely false-positives. We discuss and suggest additional cuts that can be easily applied to the catalogue to produce a set of planetary candidates with good fidelity. The full catalogue is publicly available at the NASA Exoplanet Archive.

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arXiv2015

Validation of Twelve Small Kepler Transiting Planets in the Habitable Zone

We present an investigation of twelve candidate transiting planets from Kepler with orbital periods ranging from 34 to 207 days, selected from initial indications that they are small and potentially in the habitable zone (HZ) of their parent stars. Few of these objects are known. The expected Doppler signals are too small to confirm them by demonstrating that their masses are in the planetary regime. Here we verify their planetary nature by validating them statistically using the BLENDER technique, which simulates large numbers of false positives and compares the resulting light curves with the Kepler photometry. This analysis was supplemented with new follow-up observations (high-resolution optical and near-infrared spectroscopy, adaptive optics imaging, and speckle interferometry), as well as an analysis of the flux centroids. For eleven of them (KOI-0571.05, 1422.04, 1422.05, 2529.02, 3255.01, 3284.01, 4005.01, 4087.01, 4622.01, 4742.01, and 4745.01) we show that the likelihood they are true planets is far greater than that of a false positive, to a confidence level of 99.73% (3 sigma) or higher. For KOI-4427.01 the confidence level is about 99.2% (2.6 sigma). With our accurate characterization of the GKM host stars, the derived planetary radii range from 1.1 to 2.7 R_Earth. All twelve objects are confirmed to be in the HZ, and nine are small enough to be rocky. Excluding three of them that have been previously validated by others, our study doubles the number of known rocky planets in the HZ. KOI-3284.01 (Kepler-438b) and KOI-4742.01 (Kepler-442b) are the planets most similar to the Earth discovered to date when considering their size and incident flux jointly.

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arXiv2014

KIC 9632895 - The 10th Kepler Transiting Circumbinary Planet

We present the discovery of KIC 9632895b, a 6.2 Earth-radius planet in a low-eccentricity, 240.5-day orbit about an eclipsing binary. The binary itself consists of a 0.93 and 0.194 solar mass pair of stars with an orbital period of 27.3 days. The plane of the planet's orbit is rapidly precessing, and its inclination only becomes sufficiently aligned with the primary star in the latter portion of the Kepler data. Thus three transits are present in the latter half of the light curve, but none of the three conjunctions that occurred during the first half of the light curve produced transits. The precession period is ~103 years, and during that cycle, transits are visible only ~8% of the time. This has the important implication that for every system like KIC 9632895 that we detect, there are ~12 circumbinary systems that exist but are not currently exhibiting transits. The planet's mass is too small to noticeably perturb the binary, consequently its mass is not measurable with these data; but our photodynamical model places a 1-sigma upper limit of 16 Earth masses. With a period 8.8 times that of the binary, the planet is well outside the dynamical instability zone. It does, however, lie within the habitable zone of the binary, and making it the third of ten Kepler circumbinary planets to do so.

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arXiv2014

Validation of Kepler's Multiple Planet Candidates. III: Light Curve Analysis & Announcement of Hundreds of New Multi-planet Systems

The Kepler mission has discovered over 2500 exoplanet candidates in the first two years of spacecraft data, with approximately 40% of them in candidate multi-planet systems. The high rate of multiplicity combined with the low rate of identified false-positives indicates that the multiplanet systems contain very few false-positive signals due to other systems not gravitationally bound to the target star (Lissauer, J. J., et al., 2012, ApJ 750, 131). False positives in the multi- planet systems are identified and removed, leaving behind a residual population of candidate multi-planet transiting systems expected to have a false-positive rate less than 1%. We present a sample of 340 planetary systems that contain 851 planets that are validated to substantially better than the 99% confidence level; the vast majority of these have not been previously verified as planets. We expect ~2 unidentified false-positives making our sample of planet very reliable. We present fundamental planetary properties of our sample based on a comprehensive analysis of Kepler light curves and ground-based spectroscopy and high-resolution imaging. Since we do not require spectroscopy or high-resolution imaging for validation, some of our derived parameters for a planetary system may be systematically incorrect due to dilution from light due to additional stars in the photometric aperture. None the less, our result nearly doubles the number of verified exoplanets.

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arXiv2014

Validation of Kepler's Multiple Planet Candidates. II: Refined Statistical Framework and Descriptions of Systems of Special Interest

We extend the statistical analysis of Lissauer et al. (2012, ApJ 750, 112), which demonstrates that the overwhelming majority of Kepler candidate multiple transiting systems (multis) represent true transiting planets, and develop therefrom a procedure to validate large numbers of planet candidates in multis as bona fide exoplanets. We show that this statistical framework correctly estimates the abundance of false positives already identified around Kepler targets with multiple sets of transit-like signatures based on their abundance around targets with single sets of transit-like signatures. We estimate the number of multis that represent split systems of one or more planets orbiting each component of a binary star system. We use the high reliability rate for multis to validate more than one dozen particularly interesting multi-planet systems are validated in a companion paper by Rowe et al. (2014, ApJ, this issue). We note that few very short period (P < 1.6 days) planets orbit within multiple transiting planet systems and discuss possible reasons for their absence. There also appears to be a shortage of planets with periods exceeding a few months in multis.

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arXiv2014

Masses, Radii, and Orbits of Small Kepler Planets: The Transition from Gaseous to Rocky Planets

We report on the masses, sizes, and orbits of the planets orbiting 22 Kepler stars. There are 49 planet candidates around these stars, including 42 detected through transits and 7 revealed by precise Doppler measurements of the host stars. Based on an analysis of the Kepler brightness measurements, along with high-resolution imaging and spectroscopy, Doppler spectroscopy, and (for 11 stars) asteroseismology, we establish low false-positive probabilities for all of the transiting planets (41 of 42 have a false-positive probability under 1%), and we constrain their sizes and masses. Most of the transiting planets are smaller than 3X the size of Earth. For 16 planets, the Doppler signal was securely detected, providing a direct measurement of the planet's mass. For the other 26 planets we provide either marginal mass measurements or upper limits to their masses and densities; in many cases we can rule out a rocky composition. We identify 6 planets with densities above 5 g/cc, suggesting a mostly rocky interior for them. Indeed, the only planets that are compatible with a purely rocky composition are smaller than ~2 R_earth. Larger planets evidently contain a larger fraction of low-density material (H, He, and H2O).

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