William Schafer | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

When Should a Robot Replan? Regret-Guided Update Scheduling in Time-Varying MDPs

Robots operating in non-stationary environments must continually adapt their policies as the dynamics drift, but onboard energy and compute budgets cap how often a full state estimation and re-planning step can be performed. This raises a question: \emph{when}, along a horizon, should a robot spend its limited budget? We formulate this problem in time-varying Markov decision processes (TVMDPs) with a known bound on the rate of transition drift. We model execution as a \emph{skip-update} scheme in which, at chosen update times, the agent estimates the transition kernel by maximum likelihood and computes a finite-horizon policy, and between updates reuses this policy under a propagated state estimate. We analyze the dynamic regret of this scheme and show how it grows during skip intervals in terms of the properties of the TVMDP and the skip lengths; the resulting bound answers the opening question via an online, regret-guided update rule that allocates the budget adaptively. We evaluate the rule in a simulated Mars-rover navigation task with time-varying slip dynamics and on a Crazyflie quadrotor in indoor obstacle fields. Adaptive allocation outperforms other budgeted baselines.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2025

Online Learning of Deceptive Policies under Intermittent Observation

In supervisory control settings, autonomous systems are not monitored continuously. Instead, monitoring often occurs at sporadic intervals within known bounds. We study the problem of deception, where an agent pursues a private objective while remaining plausibly compliant with a supervisor's reference policy when observations occur. Motivated by the behavior of real, human supervisors, we situate the problem within Theory of Mind: the representation of what an observer believes and expects to see. We show that Theory of Mind can be repurposed to steer online reinforcement learning (RL) toward such deceptive behavior. We model the supervisor's expectations and distill from them a single, calibrated scalar -- the expected evidence of deviation if an observation were to happen now. This scalar combines how unlike the reference and current action distributions appear, with the agent's belief that an observation is imminent. Injected as a state-dependent weight into a KL-regularized policy improvement step within an online RL loop, this scalar informs a closed-form update that smoothly trades off self-interest and compliance, thus sidestepping hand-crafted or heuristic policies. In real-world, real-time hardware experiments on marine (ASV) and aerial (UAV) navigation, our ToM-guided RL runs online, achieves high return and success with observed-trace evidence calibrated to the supervisor's expectations.

cs.RO↗