SearcharxivSearch

arXiv subjects

William Thompson

Publications and source records attributed to William Thompson.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Emergent contagion complexity: Disentangling mechanistic complexity from correlated heterogeneity

Simple and complex contagions differ mechanistically; multiple exposures act synergistically in the latter but independently in the former. Yet correlated mixtures of simple contagions may appear complex when inferring global contagion rules, a phenomenon we call "emergent complexity." We present a measure of contagion complexity and an inferential framework for estimating mixtures of nonparametric contagion rules from time-series data. Our work reframes past studies on complex contagion by offering heterogeneous mixtures of simple contagions as an alternative explanation.

physics.soc-ph

The Companions to B and A Stars Snapshot (C-BASS) Survey: I. Discovery of a Young Brown Dwarf Companion to HIP 17453

We report the detection of a new brown dwarf companion to HIP 17453 A, a chemically peculiar A0V star located at a distance of 81 pc. HIP 17453 A was observed with high-resolution adaptive optics imaging using the Near-Infrared Camera 2 on the Keck II telescope as part of the Companions to B and A Stars Snapshot (C-BASS) survey over a ten-year baseline, revealing the presence of a companion with proper motion consistent with the primary. We estimate the age of the HIP 17453 system as 280 $\pm$ 125 Myr, and with follow-up intermediate resolution (R~1800) spectroscopic observations with the Gemini Near Infra-Red Spectrograph (GNIRS) on the Gemini-North telescope, we found the spectrum of HIP 17453 B to be consistent with a spectral type of L2 $\pm$ 1. Through interpolation of Sonora Diamondback evolutionary models, we calculate an effective temperature of $1953^{+84}_{-78}$ K and mass of $53^{+10}_{-8}$ $M_{Jup}$ for HIP 17453 B, which corresponds to a mass ratio of $q = 0.024 \pm 0.004$ for the HIP 17453 system. With its intermediate mass and young age, HIP 17453 B joins a small set of benchmark brown dwarf companions around early-type stars that are suitable for follow-up atmospheric and evolutionary studies.

astro-ph.SR

Gaia Exoplanet Orbits, Demographics, and Evolution Survey (GEODES): Characteristics of Three Long-Period Companions Accelerating their Host Stars

The upcoming release of $Gaia$ DR4 will yield thousands of giant planet candidates, eventually enabling studies of giant planet eccentricities, masses, and occurrence rates across a broad range of stellar host masses, metallicities, and ages. However, some of these planet candidates are expected to be false positives, and even genuine detections will require additional observations to precisely determine their orbits and masses. We present here the first results of the $Gaia$ Exoplanet Orbits, Demographics, and Evolution Survey (GEODES), an observational campaign to identify the most promising planet candidate hosts for pre-DR4 vetting and post-DR4 validation and characterization. In this paper we showcase three systems from our broader sample exhibiting both tangential and radial accelerations, each representing a distinct outcome of our survey strategy. We combine $Hipparcos$, $Hipparcos$-$Gaia$, $Gaia$ DR2, and $Gaia$ DR3 absolute astrometry with adaptive optics (AO) imaging and precision RVs to constrain companion masses and orbits. HIP 18512, a nearby (15.3 pc) K4V dwarf, hosts a low-mass stellar companion at 10.87" $\pm$ 0.07" (166 AU) which produces significant RV and astrometric accelerations on its host star. The RV trend and astrometric acceleration of the nearby (24.2 pc) K4V star HIP 45839, together with an AO imaging non-detection, constrain the companion to $a$ = 17.9^{+4.8}_{-2.7} AU ($P$ = 70--127 years) and $M$ = 45.2^{+10.5}_{-12.7} $M_{Jup}$. In the case of HIP 81991 (43.8 pc, G5V), the astrometric and RV data indicate that the companion has a separation of 6.4^{+0.6}_{-0.3} AU ($P$ = 14.4--17.7 years) and a mass of 9.5^{+5.4}_{-2.2} $M_{Jup}$, and is more likely a planet (65%) than a brown dwarf (35%).

astro-ph.EP

Worlds Next Door. IV. Mapping the Late Stages of Giant Planet Evolution with a Precise Dynamical Mass and Luminosity for $\epsilon$ Ind Ab

We present new JWST/NIRCam 4-5 $\mu$m (F410M, F430M) and JWST/MIRI 18-25 $\mu$m (F1800W, F2100W, F2550W) imaging detections of the nearby (3.6 pc) cold (275 K) gas giant exoplanet $\epsilon$ Ind Ab. The F2550W detection of $\epsilon$ Ind Ab constitutes the longest wavelength image of an exoplanet acquired to date. Combining three decades of radial velocity monitoring, Gaia-Hipparcos absolute astrometry, and relative astrometry from direct imaging (including the new NIRCam astrometry), we conduct a comprehensive re-analysis of $\epsilon$ Ind Ab's orbit and obtain a dynamical mass $M_{\rm Ab} = 6.5^{+0.7}_{-0.6}\;M_{\rm Jup}$. Using $\epsilon$ Ind Ab's NIRCam and MIRI photometry, we assemble the first 4-25 $\mu$m spectral energy distribution (SED) of a cold gas giant outside the Solar System. The NIRCam photometry supports a metal-enriched atmosphere for $\epsilon$ Ind Ab based on analysis with atmospheric model grids, consistent with predictions from the giant planet mass-metallicity relation. While the current data do not provide definitive evidence for or against the presence of water ice clouds, we tentatively find that the H$_2$O vapor absorption-dominated F2550W photometry is systematically brighter ($>1\sigma$, but $<2\sigma$) than predictions from cloud-free/rainout chemistry models and better explained by a cloudy model. We calculate a bolometric luminosity of $\log L_{\rm bol}/L_\odot = -7.23 \pm 0.03$ dex by directly integrating $\epsilon$ Ind Ab's SED. Combining this with the planet's dynamical mass and age ($3.5 \pm 1.0$ Gyr), we demonstrate excellent agreement with evolutionary model predictions in a new regime of low luminosities, low masses, and old ages. Our results establish $\epsilon$ Ind Ab as a benchmark system for planetary evolution studies and set the stage for the detailed atmospheric characterization of this temperate extrasolar world.

astro-ph.EP

Worlds Next Door. III. Indirect Evidence for Enhanced Atmospheric Metallicity and/or the Presence of Water Clouds in the Nearest Jupiter-analog $\epsilon$ Eri b

We present the most sensitive direct imaging search for the nearest ($d = 3.2$ pc) Jupiter-analog exoplanet, $\epsilon$ Eri b, with JWST/NIRCam coronagraphy between 4-5 $\mu$m (F444W). We achieve a 5$\sigma$ contrast sensitivity $\approx3.0\times10^{-7}$ ($\Delta \approx 16.3$ mag) in the F444W filter at the expected planet separation of $\approx$1". This is the deepest 4-5 $\mu$m contrast performance achieved for any JWST/NIRCam observation to date at these separations (and $>10\times$ better than ground-based limits). Yet, the planet remains elusive to imaging. We update the star's age to $1.1\pm0.1$ Gyr, older than previous age estimates, using the latest gyrochronology relations. This significantly impacts $\epsilon$ Eri b's inferred effective temperature ($T_{\rm eff}$), which is now expected to lie between 150-200 K based on evolutionary models for a 1 $M_{\rm Jup}$ planet. Using cloud-free Sonora Flame Skimmer models and custom PICASO patchy cloud models in the above $T_{\rm eff}$ range, we find that the F444W non-detection of $\epsilon$ Eri b can be explained by a metal-enriched atmosphere and/or an atmosphere containing water ice clouds. Both possibilities suggest that $\epsilon$ Eri b's atmosphere is strikingly similar to that of Jupiter in our Solar System. Alternatively, if we do not enforce the dynamical mass ($0.98 \pm 0.09\;M_{\rm Jup}$), a solar metallicity, cloud-free, $\lesssim0.81\;M_{\rm Jup}$ planet would be consistent with the NIRCam upper limit based on the Sonora Flame Skimmer evolutionary models. Finally, we place limits on the size of a potential ring system using the NIRCam/F210M data and discuss the opportunity to directly image $\epsilon$ Eri b with additional JWST observations, the Roman Coronagraph Instrument, the ExtraSolar Coronagraph on the Lazuli Observatory, and EELT/METIS.

astro-ph.EP

Dynamical Mass Constraints on Transition Disk Perturbers with the G23H Catalog

We present dynamical mass constraints on perturbers in 11 transition disk systems using a novel combination of calibrated Hipparcos and Gaia absolute astrometry data. Out of the sample of 11, we find support for companions in four systems, with significant detections in two. These systems are: HD 142527, where we clearly detect the known low-mass stellar companion HD 142527 B and MWC 758, where we detect a likely sub-stellar companion. We also find moderate evidence of companions to AB Aur and UX Tau A. For the seven systems with non-detections, we find no evidence for companions more massive than $\sim$12 $M_{\mathrm{Jup}}$ with a semi-major axis greater than 3 au for both HD 100546 and HD 100453, nor for companions more massive than $\sim$3 $M_{\mathrm{Jup}}$ with a semi-major axis greater than 2 au for TW Hya. We also find no evidence for stellar mass companions with semi-major axes between $\sim$4 and $\sim$25 au for HD 34282, HD 97048, CQ Tau and RY Lup. In addition to our fiducial model, we perform cross validation between astrometry sources. By comparing results across models, we find tentative evidence of a short timescale excess astrometric noise that may impact some protoplanetary disk systems. We conclude with predictions for the prospects of making dynamical mass constraints on protoplanets in protoplanetary disk systems with Gaia data release 4 using detailed simulations of Gaia DR4 data of PDS 70 and WISPIT 2.

astro-ph.EP

Detecting and Characterizing Companions with a Calibrated Gaia DR2, DR3, and Hipparcos Catalog (G23H)

Gaia DR4 epoch astrometry will enable the detection of thousands of exoplanets through astrometric motion. Here, we present a composite catalog and modeling framework that extracts the maximum information from existing Hipparcos and Gaia data releases. We calibrate Gaia DR2 proper motions and DR3-DR2 scaled position differences against the Gaia DR3 reference frame, and combine these with the Hipparcos-Gaia Catalog of Accelerations, the Hipparcos intermediate astrometric data, Gaia astrometric excess noise, and Gaia radial velocity variability constraints. We implement a joint likelihood model for these data in Octofitter that marginalizes over Gaia's unpublished observation epochs. This results in full orbit posteriors that can be computed uniformly for a large class of companions. We compare these posteriors to published orbital solutions for 25 stellar binaries from the Sixth Catalog of Orbits of Visual Binary Stars, recovering all companions at high significance and broadly consistent orbital separations. We then recover independent evidence to support 94 of 120 tested Jovian exoplanetary systems from the NASA Exoplanet Archive (plus 3 known stellar companions, and one previously detected planet we now rule out). We demonstrate that in cases like 14 Her b, the posteriors confirm the planetary nature of a signal using only Gaia and Hipparcos data. We find no false positives among 25 RV-quiet standard stars without significant Hipparcos-Gaia accelerations. Our method can break degeneracies inherent to proper motion anomaly or excess noise modeling alone by resolving orbital curvature within the Gaia baseline. The catalog and updated Octofitter are made publicly available to the community.

astro-ph.EP

SCExAO/CHARIS and Gaia Direct Imaging and Astrometric Discovery of a Superjovian Planet 3--4 lambda/D from the Accelerating Star HIP 54515

We present the discovery of a superjovian planet around the young A5 star HIP 54515, detected using precision astrometry from the Hipparcos Gaia Catalogue of Accelerations and high-contrast imaging with SCExAO/CHARIS from the recently-commenced OASIS program. SCExAO/CHARIS detects HIP 54515 b in five epochs 0\farcs{}145--0\farcs{}192 from the star ($\sim$3--4 $\lambda$/D at 1.65 $\mu m$), exhibiting clockwise orbital motion. HIP 54515 b lies near the M/L transition with a luminosity of log(L/L$_{\rm \odot}$) $\sim$ -3.52 $\pm$ 0.03. Dynamical modeling constrains its mass and mass ratio to be ${17.7}_{-4.9}^{+7.6}$ $M_{\rm Jup}$ and ${0.0090}_{-0.0024}^{+0.0036}$ and favors a $\sim$25 au semimajor axis. HIP 54515 b adds to a growing list of superjovian planets with moderate eccentricities (e $\approx$ 0.4). Now the third planet discovered from surveys combining high-contrast extreme adaptive optics imaging with precision astrometry, HIP 54515 b should help improve empirical constraints on the luminosity evolution and eccentricity distribution of the most massive planets. It may also provide a key technical test of the Roman Space Telescope Coronagraph Instrument's performance in the low stellar flux, small angular separation limit and a demonstration of its ability to yield constrainable planet spectral properties.

astro-ph.EP

OASIS Survey Direct Imaging and Astrometric Discovery of HIP 71618 B: A Substellar Companion Suitable for the Roman Coronagraph Technology Demonstration

We present the OASIS survey program discovery of a substellar companion orbiting the young A1V star HIP 71618, detected using precision astrometry from Gaia and Hipparcos and high-contrast imaging with SCExAO/CHARIS and Keck/NIRC2. Atmospheric modeling favors a spectral type of M5--M8 and a temperature of $\sim$2700 $\pm$ 100 $K$. Dynamical modeling constrains HIP 71618 B's mass to be ${60}_{-21}^{+27}$ $M_{\rm Jup}$ or ${65}_{-29}^{+54}$ $M_{\rm Jup}$, depending on the adopted companion mass prior. It has a nearly edge-on, 11 au-orbit with a high eccentricity. HIP 71618 B will be located within Roman Coronagraph's dark hole region during the instrument's technological demonstration phase. A high signal-to-noise ratio detection of HIP 71618 B at 575 nm would demonstrate a 5-$\sigma$ contrast of 10$^{-7}$ or better. The system is also located within or very close to Roman's Continuous Viewing Zone -- near multiple candidate reference stars for dark-hole digging -- and its primary is bright ($V$ $\approx$ 5). The suitability of HIP 71618 as one potential Roman Coronagraph target for demonstrating the instrument's core requirement (TTR5) should motivate the timely, deep vetting of candidate reference stars.

astro-ph.SR

Variation of the disk thickness across ice bands: A method to determine ice abundances in highly inclined protoplanetary disks

The James Webb Space Telescope provides unprecedented information to study ices in protoplanetary disks. However, the saturation of ice bands in highly inclined disks hinders the measurement of ice abundances using classical spectroscopy. This is unfortunate as the presence and more importantly abundance of ices plays a key role in, e.g., the evolution of dust (because it modifies the sticking properties) and the composition of planetesimals and exoplanetary atmospheres. To overcome this issue and quantify the ice abundance within disks, we introduce a new method based on measuring the changes in the apparent disk thickness as a function of wavelength, which is directly and quantitatively related to the grain opacity. Specifically, we expect i) that the increased opacity within ice bands should result in a thicker disk than in the adjacent continuum, and ii) the thickness variations to be proportional to the abundance of ice. We extracted the disk thickness in model images of edge-on disks containing different abundances of water ice, as well as in James Webb Space Telescope spectral imaging of four edge-on disks. For both models and observations, the disk thickness decreases toward longer wavelengths except across the positions of ice absorption features where the thickness is enhanced across the band. In the model images, we demonstrate that this effect increases with ice abundance without any hint of saturation. This definitely demonstrates the presence of the ice species within each disk and confirms our expectation that this method can be applied to estimate ice abundances. Thanks to this method, it will thus be possible to constrain the ice abundance in highly inclined disks with disks model fitting. Unlike spectroscopic analysis, this method is not subject to saturation and should therefore be more robust and applicable to all disks for which the two surfaces can be resolved.

astro-ph.SR

New Orbital Constraints for YSES 1 b and HR 2562 B from High-Precision Astrometry and Planetary Radial Velocities

We present new VLTI/GRAVITY astrometry and updated orbit fits for the directly imaged companions YSES 1 b and HR 2562 B, substellar objects straddling the planet-brown dwarf boundary. Using high-precision astrometry, radial velocity (RV) data, and proper motions, we derive revised orbital parameters with orbitize! arXiv:1910.01756. For YSES 1 b, the inclusion of GRAVITY astrometry and a relative radial velocity measurement from arXiv:2409.16660 overcomes the traditional challenge of constraining eccentricities for distant companions, enabling the first orbit fit and yielding a constrained eccentricity of 0.44 (0.20). This represents the first full orbit fit for the system. Additionally, we calculate a median line-of-sight stellar obliquity of 12 (+11, -8) degrees, providing further insight into the system's dynamical architecture. For HR 2562 B, our analysis agrees with arXiv:2302.04893, confirming a low-eccentricity orbit (0.34 (0.20)) and an inclination of 87 (1) degrees. We find HR 2562 B's orbit to be nearly coplanar with the debris disk, with a mutual inclination of 3.7 (0.3) degrees. For both YSES 1 b and HR 2562 B the lower eccentricities favor an in situ formation scenario over extreme scattering or cloud fragmentation.

astro-ph.EP

Ground-Based Mid-IR Direct Imaging: The Origin of the Thermal Background on the Keck II Telescope and Correcting Instrumental Systematics

Mid-IR wavelengths are of particular interest to exoplanet science due to the fact they can extend the searchable parameter space to planets that are older and/or colder. However, a significant source of uncertainty at mid-IR wavelengths on ground-based telescopes is the thermal background. This background comes from blackbody radiation in the atmosphere and telescope and is therefore dependent on instrument design and atmospheric conditions. When performing imaging observations, this background manifests as a slowly varying, inhomogeneous signal throughout the image, underlying our data. Photometry at mid-IR can greatly constrain atmospheric models but existing data are usually scarce or have significant error bars due to the difficulty of subtracting the background. Using M-band direct imaging observing sequences on NIRC2, we evaluate the thermal background of the Keck II telescope and attempt to subtract the background in a more comprehensive way. For our primary science target, the forming protoplanet AB Aur b, we present a contrast upper limit of $2 \times 10^{-4}$ in M-band and address the limiting factors in our observation due to the thermal background. We determine that the origin of the systematic components of the thermal background comes from the K-mirror and find that the thermal background is also strongly influenced by emission from the secondary spiders on Keck II.

astro-ph.IM

An on-sky investigation into factors limiting the performance of Keck-NIRC2 for conducting infrared high-contrast imaging

The most common instrument used by the exoplanet/brown dwarf direct imaging community at the W.M. Keck Observatory is currently the NIRC2 near-infrared imager. We performed on-sky testing to investigate three effects which may be limiting the performance of NIRC2 when conducting high-contrast imaging observations from $3-5\mu$m. First, we report the measurements of an on-sky test of the throughput of the L/M vector vortex coronagraph. We quantify the throughput and additional background flux penalties, noting that the performance effects of using the vector vortex coronagraph in the Ms-filter are greater than in the Lp-filter. Second, we utilize the recently commissioned NIRC2 electronics upgrade to measure the sky variability at sub-second speeds. We find that the background varies at timescales of less than 30s, indicating that the electronics upgrade may open an opportunity to improve the sky-background subtraction of future surveys. Third, we document the contribution of the image derotator to the spatial non-uniformity in the background flux. We conclude by giving a set of recommendations of how the Keck-NIRC2 high-contrast imaging community can adapt their observing strategies to improve the sensitivity of future surveys.

astro-ph.IM

Active region upflows in various coronal structures and their coupling to the lower atmosphere

Plasma upflows with a Doppler shift exceeding -10 km/s at active region (AR) boundaries are considered potential sources of the nascent slow solar wind. We investigate the driving mechanisms of a pair of coronal upflow regions on the western and eastern peripheries of an AR, which have different magnetic topologies and surroundings. It is aimed to explore how these upflows couple to the lower atmosphere. Using observations of the Fe XII 19.51 nm line from Hinode, we identified two upflow regions at the western and eastern boundaries of a decaying AR. Context images for the two regions were obtained by the High Resolution Imager (HRI) telescope of the Extreme Ultraviolet Imager (EUI) on board the Solar Orbiter mission. Other instruments on Solar Orbiter and other observatories provide diagnostics to the lower atmosphere. Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) extrapolations were used to examine the magnetic field configuration associated with the AR upflows. The eastern upflow region, located over the AR moss, displays small-scale dynamic fibril structures, whereas the western region hosts fan-like loops. We found blueshifted Ne VIII emission at the eastern site, in contrast to redshifted Ne VIII profiles in the west. Magnetic field extrapolations reveal a pseudostreamer topology connecting both these regions. Moreover, low transition-region lines show systematically reduced redshift below the eastern footpoint. The observations support the scenario in which both upflows are driven by pressure imbalances created by coronal reconnection, leading to a continuous upflow above approximately 0.6 MK (i.e., Ne VIII line formation temperature). Meanwhile, mass flows in the lower transition region beneath the eastern upflow region appear to respond passively to the pressure-driven coronal upflows.

astro-ph.SR

Searching for Planets Orbiting $\epsilon$~Eridani with JWST/NIRCam

We present observations of \epseri~with the JWST/NIRCam coronagraph aimed at imaging planets orbiting within this system. In particular, these observations targeted (1) the Jupiter-like planet, first detected orbiting at 3.5 AU with radial velocity observations, and (2) the planet postulated to be responsible for carving the edges of \epseri's outer ring, expected to orbit at 40-50 AU. However, no point sources were detected at a statistically significant level. We report new, improved upper limits at 4 $\mu$m: $\sim$1e-7~contrast at 1\arcsec, and $\sim$2e-8~beyond 5\arcsec. The latter contrast limit precludes Saturn-mass planets at separations $>$16~AU given current models. We also report upper limits for \epseri's disk emission at 4 $\mu$m. While the radial surface brightness profile shows no evidence of emission, we detect a 1-$\sigma$ surface brightness signal on the east side of the system, consistent with forward scattering emission expected for \epseri's disk inclination. Finally, we evaluate the performance of the 3-roll observation strategy, which was first employed in these observations: the gains in contrast are modest, with 20-30\% improvements with respect to the conventional 2-roll strategy.

astro-ph.EP

Requirements for Joint Orbital Characterization of Cold Giants and Habitable Worlds with Habitable Worlds Observatory

We determine optimal requirements for the joint detection of habitable-zone planets and cold giant planets with the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO). Analysis of 164 nearby stars shows that a coronagraph outer working angle (OWA) of 1440 milliarcseconds (mas) is necessary to achieve 80-90% visibility of cold giants. Approximately 40 precursor radial velocity measurements with 1 m/s precision are required to adequately constrain orbital parameters before HWO observations. We demonstrate that 6-8 astrometric measurements distributed across the mission timeline, compared to radial velocity constraints alone and to astrometry constraints alone, significantly improve orbital parameter precision, enabling direct determination of orbital inclination with uncertainties of 0.8-3 degrees. For habitable-zone planet characterization, 4-5 epochs provide moderate confidence, while high-confidence (95%) confirmation requires 8+ observations. These specifications are essential for the comprehensive characterization of planetary system architectures and understanding the potential habitability of terrestrial exoplanets.

astro-ph.EP

Simulation and Performance Studies for the Tau Air-Shower Mountain-Based Observatory

While IceCube's detection of astrophysical neutrinos at energies up to a few PeV has opened a new window to our Universe, much remains to be discovered regarding these neutrinos' origin and nature. In particular, the difficulty of differentiating electron- and tau-neutrino charged-current (CC) events limits our ability to measure precisely the flavor ratio of this flux. The Tau Air-Shower Mountain-Based Observatory (TAMBO) is a next-generation neutrino observatory capable of producing a high-purity sample of tau-neutrino CC events in the energy range from 1 PeV--100 PeV, i.e. just above the IceCube measurements. An array of water Cherenkov tanks and plastic scintillators deployed in the Colca Canyon will observe the air-shower produced when a tau lepton, produced in a tau-neutrino CC interaction, emerges from the opposite face and decays in the air. In this contribution, I will present the performance studies for TAMBO -- including the expected rates, effective areas, and discrimination potential -- as well as the simulation on which these studies are based.

astro-ph.HE

Animated Visual Encoding and Layer Blending for Identification of Educational Game Strategies

Game-Based Learning has proven to be an effective method for enhancing engagement with educational material. However, gaining a deeper understanding of player strategies remains challenging. Sequential game-state and action-based tracking tools often gather extensive data that can be difficult to interpret as long-term strategy. This data presents unique problems to visualization, as it can be fairly natural, noisy data but is constrained within synthetic, controlled environments, leading to issues such as overplotting which can make interpretation complicated. We propose an animated visual encoding tool that utilizes kinetic visualization to address these issues. This tool enables researchers to construct animated data narratives through the configuration of parameter interpolation curves and blending layers. Finally, we demonstrate the usefulness of the tool while addressing specific interests as outlined by a domain expert collaborator.

cs.HC