arXiv subjects

Wolfram Wiesemann

Publications and source records attributed to Wolfram Wiesemann.

25 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

Partial Policy Iteration for L1-Robust Markov Decision Processes

Robust Markov decision processes (MDPs) allow to compute reliable solutions for dynamic decision problems whose evolution is modeled by rewards and partially-known transition probabilities. Unfortunately, accounting for uncertainty in the transition probabilities significantly increases the computational complexity of solving robust MDPs, which severely limits their scalability. This paper describes new efficient algorithms for solving the common class of robust MDPs with s- and sa-rectangular ambiguity sets defined by weighted $L_1$ norms. We propose partial policy iteration, a new, efficient, flexible, and general policy iteration scheme for robust MDPs. We also propose fast methods for computing the robust Bellman operator in quasi-linear time, nearly matching the linear complexity the non-robust Bellman operator. Our experimental results indicate that the proposed methods are many orders of magnitude faster than the state-of-the-art approach which uses linear programming solvers combined with a robust value iteration.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Optimistic Distributionally Robust Optimization for Nonparametric Likelihood Approximation

The likelihood function is a fundamental component in Bayesian statistics. However, evaluating the likelihood of an observation is computationally intractable in many applications. In this paper, we propose a non-parametric approximation of the likelihood that identifies a probability measure which lies in the neighborhood of the nominal measure and that maximizes the probability of observing the given sample point. We show that when the neighborhood is constructed by the Kullback-Leibler divergence, by moment conditions or by the Wasserstein distance, then our \textit{optimistic likelihood} can be determined through the solution of a convex optimization problem, and it admits an analytical expression in particular cases. We also show that the posterior inference problem with our optimistic likelihood approximation enjoys strong theoretical performance guarantees, and it performs competitively in a probabilistic classification task.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Calculating Optimistic Likelihoods Using (Geodesically) Convex Optimization

A fundamental problem arising in many areas of machine learning is the evaluation of the likelihood of a given observation under different nominal distributions. Frequently, these nominal distributions are themselves estimated from data, which makes them susceptible to estimation errors. We thus propose to replace each nominal distribution with an ambiguity set containing all distributions in its vicinity and to evaluate an \emph{optimistic likelihood}, that is, the maximum of the likelihood over all distributions in the ambiguity set. When the proximity of distributions is quantified by the Fisher-Rao distance or the Kullback-Leibler divergence, the emerging optimistic likelihoods can be computed efficiently using either geodesic or standard convex optimization techniques. We showcase the advantages of working with optimistic likelihoods on a classification problem using synthetic as well as empirical data.

math.OC↗

arXiv2019

Size Matters: Cardinality-Constrained Clustering and Outlier Detection via Conic Optimization

Plain vanilla K-means clustering has proven to be successful in practice, yet it suffers from outlier sensitivity and may produce highly unbalanced clusters. To mitigate both shortcomings, we formulate a joint outlier detection and clustering problem, which assigns a prescribed number of datapoints to an auxiliary outlier cluster and performs cardinality-constrained K-means clustering on the residual dataset, treating the cluster cardinalities as a given input. We cast this problem as a mixed-integer linear program (MILP) that admits tractable semidefinite and linear programming relaxations. We propose deterministic rounding schemes that transform the relaxed solutions to feasible solutions for the MILP. We also prove that these solutions are optimal in the MILP if a cluster separation condition holds.

math.OC↗

arXiv2018

K-Adaptability in Two-Stage Mixed-Integer Robust Optimization

We study two-stage robust optimization problems with mixed discrete-continuous decisions in both stages. Despite their broad range of applications, these problems pose two fundamental challenges: (i) they constitute infinite-dimensional problems that require a finite-dimensional approximation, and (ii) the presence of discrete recourse decisions typically prohibits duality-based solution schemes. We address the first challenge by studying a $K$-adaptability formulation that selects $K$ candidate recourse policies before observing the realization of the uncertain parameters and that implements the best of these policies after the realization is known. We address the second challenge through a branch-and-bound scheme that enjoys asymptotic convergence in general and finite convergence under specific conditions. We illustrate the performance of our algorithm in numerical experiments involving benchmark data from several application domains.

math.OC↗

arXiv2017

Scenario Reduction Revisited: Fundamental Limits and Guarantees

The goal of scenario reduction is to approximate a given discrete distribution with another discrete distribution that has fewer atoms. We distinguish continuous scenario reduction, where the new atoms may be chosen freely, and discrete scenario reduction, where the new atoms must be chosen from among the existing ones. Using the Wasserstein distance as measure of proximity between distributions, we identify those $n$-point distributions on the unit ball that are least susceptible to scenario reduction, i.e., that have maximum Wasserstein distance to their closest $m$-point distributions for some prescribed $m<n$. We also provide sharp bounds on the added benefit of continuous over discrete scenario reduction. Finally, to our best knowledge, we propose the first polynomial-time constant-factor approximations for both discrete and continuous scenario reduction as well as the first exact exponential-time algorithms for continuous scenario reduction.

math.OC↗

arXiv2016

Chebyshev Inequalities for Products of Random Variables

We derive sharp probability bounds on the tails of a product of symmetric non-negative random variables using only information about their first two moments. If the covariance matrix of the random variables is known exactly, these bounds can be computed numerically using semidefinite programming. If only an upper bound on the covariance matrix is available, the probability bounds on the right tails can be evaluated analytically. The bounds under precise and imprecise covariance information coincide for all left tails as well as for all right tails corresponding to quantiles that are either sufficiently small or sufficiently large. We also prove that all left probability bounds reduce to the trivial bound 1 if the number of random variables in the product exceeds an explicit threshold. Thus, in the worst case, the weak-sense geometric random walk defined through the running product of the random variables is absorbed at 0 with certainty as soon as time exceeds the given threshold. The techniques devised for constructing Chebyshev bounds for products can also be used to derive Chebyshev bounds for sums, maxima and minima of non-negative random variables.

math.PR↗