arXiv subjects

Xiangao Xia

Publications and source records attributed to Xiangao Xia.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Probabilistic reconstruction of global sea surface temperature using generative diffusion models

Accurate reconstruction of global Sea surface temperature (SST), which dominates the air-sea coupling and global climate variability, underpins climate monitoring and prediction. Existing SST reconstruction products primarily provide one deterministic field derived from heterogeneous satellite data and in situ observations, limiting their ability to represent observation uncertainty and to support probabilistic forecasting. Here, we introduce Satellite and in situ Adaptive Guided Estimation (SAGE), a diffusion-based uncertainty-aware generative framework for probabilistic SST reconstruction. SAGE learns a physically consistent prior from historical SST data and performs observation-conditioned posterior sampling without requiring satellite or in situ data during training, enabling flexible state inference from heterogeneous observations. Through a progressive data-fusion strategy, observations from two FengYun-3D polar-orbiting satellites constrain basin-scale structures, while sparse in situ measurements serve to refine local anomalies and extremes. The resulting ensemble SST fields well capture observational uncertainty and scale-dependent variability. Validation against independent in situ observations shows that SAGE substantially reduces reconstruction errors compared with widely used operational products. When used to initialize forecasting systems, SAGE-generated SST fields substantially reduce 10-day SST forecast errors relative to current operational analyses. At the climate scale, SAGE-driven forecasts of the 2023-2024 El Nino event show added value in capturing its onset and intensity evolution compared to conventional approaches. Our results demonstrate that SAGE represents a step toward a new paradigm for ocean state estimation and climate prediction.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

Searth Transformer: A Transformer Architecture Incorporating Earth's Geospheric Physical Priors for Global Mid-Range Weather Forecasting

Accurate global medium-range weather forecasting is fundamental to Earth system science. Most existing Transformer-based forecasting models adopt vision-centric architectures that neglect the Earth's spherical geometry and zonal periodicity. In addition, conventional autoregressive training is computationally expensive and limits forecast horizons due to error accumulation. To address these challenges, we propose the Shifted Earth Transformer (Searth Transformer), a physics-informed architecture that incorporates zonal periodicity and meridional boundaries into window-based self-attention for physically consistent global information exchange. We further introduce a Relay Autoregressive (RAR) fine-tuning strategy that enables learning long-range atmospheric evolution under constrained memory and computational budgets. Based on these methods, we develop YanTian, a global medium-range weather forecasting model. YanTian achieves higher accuracy than the high-resolution forecast of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and performs competitively with state-of-the-art AI models at one-degree resolution, while requiring roughly 200 times lower computational cost than standard autoregressive fine-tuning. Furthermore, YanTian attains a longer skillful forecast lead time for Z500 (10.3 days) than HRES (9 days). Beyond weather forecasting, this work establishes a robust algorithmic foundation for predictive modeling of complex global-scale geophysical circulation systems, offering new pathways for Earth system science.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Advancing global aerosol forecasting with artificial intelligence

Aerosol forecasting is essential for air quality warnings, health risk assessment, and climate change mitigation. However, it is more complex than weather forecasting due to the intricate interactions between aerosol physicochemical processes and atmospheric dynamics, resulting in significant uncertainty and high computational costs. Here, we develop an artificial intelligence-driven global aerosol-meteorology forecasting system (AI-GAMFS), which provides reliable 5-day, 3-hourly forecasts of aerosol optical components and surface concentrations at a 0.5° x 0.625° resolution. AI-GAMFS combines Vision Transformer and U-Net in a backbone network, robustly capturing the complex aerosol-meteorology interactions via global attention and spatiotemporal encoding. Trained on 42 years of advanced aerosol reanalysis data and initialized with GEOS Forward Processing (GEOS-FP) analyses, AI-GAMFS delivers operational 5-day forecasts in one minute. It outperforms the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) global forecasting system, GEOS-FP forecasts, and several regional dust forecasting systems in forecasting most aerosol variables including aerosol optical depth and dust components. Our results mark a significant step forward in leveraging AI to refine physics-based aerosol forecasting, facilitating more accurate global warnings for aerosol pollution events, such as dust storms and wildfires.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2020

Validation of GFS day-ahead solar irradiance forecasts in China

This paper provides a benchmark to evaluate operational day-ahead solar irradiance forecasts of Global Forecast System (GFS) for solar energy applications in China. First, GFS day-ahead solar irradiance forecasts are validated quantitatively with hourly observations at 17 first-class national solar monitoring stations and 1 Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) station all over China. Second, a hybrid forecast method based on Gradient Boosting (GB) and GFS product is proposed to improve forecasts accuracy. Both GFS forecasts and GB-based forecasts are compared with persistence forecasts. The results demonstrate persistence model is more accurate than GFS forecasts, and the hybrid method has the best performance. Besides, parameter optimization of direct-diffuse separation fails to reduce the errors of direct normal irradiance (DNI) forecasts.

physics.ao-ph↗