arXiv subjects

Xiangchen Liu

Publications and source records attributed to Xiangchen Liu.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

DyGeoVLN: Infusing Dynamic Geometry Foundation Model into Vision-Language Navigation

Vision-language Navigation (VLN) requires an agent to understand visual observations and language instructions to navigate in unseen environments. Most existing approaches rely on static scene assumptions and struggle to generalize in dynamic, real-world scenarios. To address this challenge, we propose DyGeoVLN, a dynamic geometry-aware VLN framework. Our method infuses a dynamic geometry foundation model into the VLN framework through cross-branch feature fusion to enable explicit 3D spatial representation and visual-semantic reasoning. To efficiently compress historical token information in long-horizon, dynamic navigation, we further introduce a novel pose-free and adaptive-resolution token-pruning strategy. This strategy can remove spatio-temporal redundant tokens to reduce inference cost. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance on multiple benchmarks and exhibits strong robustness in real-world environments.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2026

How Wrong Can Your Counterfactual Be? Quantifying Confounding Bias for Continuous Treatments without a Control Group

Stress testing poses a causal question: how would portfolio credit losses change if the macroeconomy followed an adverse counterfactual path? Yet standard practice remains predictive and might be therefore vulnerable to omitted-variable bias. We propose a partial identification framework for causal stress testing in panel data with a continuous common treatment and no control group. By assuming that the unobserved confounder affects outcome and macro variables additively, we derive a closed-form confounding envelope parameterized by two interpretable sensitivity parameters. We further analyze two practical estimators -- recursive rollout and direct multi-horizon prediction -- derive non-asymptotic error bounds, and characterize when recursive compounding makes direct estimation preferable. For inference, we combine the identification envelope with importance-weighted conformal prediction, yielding finite-sample intervals that separate estimation uncertainty from identification uncertainty under covariate shift. In semi-synthetic experiments built from real U.S. unemployment paths, standard high-accuracy predictive models remain causally biased and substantially under-cover, whereas the proposed framework achieves near-nominal coverage across stress horizons.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Bridging Expectation Signals: LLM-Based Experiments and a Behavioral Kalman Filter Framework

As LLMs increasingly function as economic agents, the specific mechanisms LLMs use to update their belief with heterogeneous signals remain opaque. We design experiments and develop a Behavioral Kalman Filter framework to quantify how LLM-based agents update expectations, acting as households or firm CEOs, update expectations when presented with individual and aggregate signals. The results from experiments and model estimation reveal four consistent patterns: (1) agents' weighting of priors and signals deviates from unity; (2) both household and firm CEO agents place substantially larger weights on individual signals compared to aggregate signals; (3) we identify a significant and negative interaction between concurrent signals, implying that the presence of multiple information sources diminishes the marginal weight assigned to each individual signal; and (4) expectation formation patterns differ significantly between household and firm CEO agents. Finally, we demonstrate that LoRA fine-tuning mitigates, but does not fully eliminate, behavioral biases in LLM expectation formation.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

FlowVLA: Visual Chain of Thought-based Motion Reasoning for Vision-Language-Action Models

Many Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models are built upon an internal world model trained via next-frame prediction ``$v_t \rightarrow v_{t+1}$''. However, this paradigm attempts to predict the future frame's appearance directly, without explicitly reasoning about the underlying dynamics. \textbf{This lack of an explicit motion reasoning step} often leads to physically implausible visual forecasts and inefficient policy learning. To address this limitation, we introduce the \textbf{Visual Chain of Thought (Visual CoT)}, a paradigm that compels the model to first reason about \textbf{motion dynamics} before generating the future frame. We instantiate this paradigm by proposing \textbf{FlowVLA}, an autoregressive Transformer that explicitly materializes this reasoning process as ``$v_t \rightarrow f_t \rightarrow v_{t+1}$'', where $f_t$ is an intermediate optical flow prediction that inherently encodes motion. By forcing the model to first follow the motion plan encoded by $f_t$, this process inherently \textbf{aligns the pre-training objective of dynamics prediction with the downstream task of action generation.} We conduct experiments on challenging robotics manipulation benchmarks, as well as real-robot evaluations. Our FlowVLA not only generates \textbf{more coherent and physically plausible visual predictions}, but also achieves state-of-the-art policy performance with \textbf{substantially improved sample efficiency}, pointing toward a more principled foundation for world modeling in VLAs. Project page: https://irpn-lab.github.io/FlowVLA/

cs.RO↗