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Xiangcheng Ma

Publications and source records attributed to Xiangcheng Ma.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Galaxy Metallicity Gradients in the Reionization Epoch from the FIRE-2 Simulations

We employ the high-redshift suite of FIRE-2 cosmological hydrodynamic zoom-in simulations to investigate the evolution of gas-phase metallicity radial gradients in galaxies in the epoch of reionization (EoR). Our sample consists of 22 galaxies spanning the redshift range $z \sim 10-5$. We find that galaxies at $z\sim10$ exhibit a median metallicity gradient of $-0.15\,\mathrm{dex\cdot kpc^{-1}}$ with substantial scatter, which gradually flatten to $-0.1\,\mathrm{dex\cdot kpc^{-1}}$ at $z\sim6$, accompanied by a reduction in scatter. In the EoR, metallicity gradients correlate positively with stellar mass: more massive galaxies display flatter gradients with smaller scatter, broadly consistent with recent JWST observations. At fixed stellar mass, galaxies with higher star formation rates (SFRs) exhibit steeper negative gradients, while sSFR shows a strong anti-correlation with gradient slope. Because EoR galaxies in FIRE-2 generally lack significant rotational support, we adopt the ratio of peak-to-peak velocity shear to twice the velocity dispersion ($\Delta v/2\sigma$) as a proxy for the strength of gas flows. We find a strong positive correlation between metallicity gradients and $\Delta v/2\sigma$: galaxies with lower $\Delta v/2\sigma$ (i.e., weaker gas flows) tend to exhibit steeper negative gradients. Furthermore, galaxies with steeper gradients display higher central SFR surface densities, suggesting localized star formation with inefficient interstellar medium mixing that drives inside-out chemical enrichment in galaxy evolution in the early Universe.

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Second public data release of the FIRE-2 cosmological zoom-in simulations of galaxy formation

We describe the second data release (DR2) of the FIRE-2 cosmological zoom-in simulations of galaxy formation, from the Feedback In Realistic Environments (FIRE) project, available at http://flathub.flatironinstitute.org/fire. DR2 includes all snapshots for most simulations, starting at z ~ 99, with all snapshot time spacings <~ 25 Myr. The Core suite -- comprising 14 Milky Way-mass galaxies, 5 SMC/LMC-mass galaxies, and 4 lower-mass galaxies -- includes 601 snapshots to z = 0. For the Core suite, we also release resimulations with physics variations: (1) dark-matter-only versions; (2) a modified ultraviolet background with later reionization at z = 7.8; (3) magnetohydrodynamics, anisotropic conduction, and viscosity in gas; and (4) a model for cosmic-ray injection, transport, and feedback (assuming a constant diffusion coefficient). The Massive Halo suite now includes 8 massive galaxies with 278 snapshots to z = 1. The High Redshift suite includes 34 simulations: in addition to the 22 simulations run to z = 5, we now include 12 additional simulations run to z = 7 and z = 9. We also release 4 dark-matter-only cosmological boxes used to generate zoom-in initial conditions for many FIRE simulations. Most simulations include catalogs of (sub)halos and galaxies at all available snapshots, and most Core simulations to z = 0 include full halo merger trees.

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The physical origin of positive metallicity radial gradients in high-redshift galaxies: insights from the FIRE-2 cosmological hydrodynamic simulations

Using the FIRE-2 cosmological zoom-in simulations, we investigate the temporal evolution of gas-phase metallicity radial gradients of Milky Way-mass progenitors in the redshift range of $0.4<z<3$. We pay special attention to the occurrence of positive (i.e. inverted) metallicity gradients -- where metallicity increases with galactocentric radius. This trend, contrary to the more commonly observed negative radial gradients, has been frequently seen in recent spatially resolved grism observations. The rate of occurrence of positive gradients in FIRE-2 is about $\sim7\%$ for $0.4<z<3$ and $\sim13\%$ at higher redshifts ($1.5<z<3$), broadly consistent with observations. Moreover, we investigate the correlations among galaxy metallicity gradient, stellar mass, star formation rate (SFR), and degree of rotational support. Metallicity gradients show a strong correlation with both sSFR and the rotational-to-dispersion velocity ratio ($v_c/\sigma$), implying that starbursts and kinematic morphology of galaxies play significant roles in shaping these gradients. The FIRE-2 simulations indicate that galaxies with high sSFR (${\rm log(sSFR~[yr^{-1}])}\gtrsim-9.2$) and weak rotational support ($v_c/\sigma\lesssim 1$) are more likely -- by $\sim$15\% -- to develop positive metallicity gradients. This trend is attributed to galaxy-scale gas flows driven by stellar feedback, which effectively redistribute metals within the interstellar medium. Our results support the important role of stellar feedback in governing the chemo-structural evolution and disk formation of Milky Way-mass galaxies at the cosmic noon epoch.

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Host-galaxy stars can dominate the ionizing radiation field of the circumgalactic medium in galaxies at Cosmic Noon

Elucidating the processes that shape the circumgalactic medium (CGM) is crucial for understanding galaxy evolution. Absorption and emission diagnostics can be interpreted using photoionization calculations to obtain information about the phase and ionization structure of the CGM. For simplicity, typically only the metagalactic background is considered in photoionization calculations, and local sources are ignored. To test this simplification, we perform Monte Carlo radiation transfer on 12 cosmological zoom-in simulations from the Feedback in Realistic Environments (FIRE) project with halo masses $10^{10.5}-10^{13} \mathrm{M}_{\odot}$ in the redshift range $z = 0-3.5$ to determine the spatial extent over which local sources appreciably contribute to the ionizing radiation field in the CGM. We find that on average, the contribution of stars within the galaxy is small beyond one-tenth of the virial radius, $R_{\mathrm{vir}}$, for $z < 1$. For $1 10^{12} \mathrm{M}_{\odot}$ at $z \sim 1.5-2.5$ and for all $M_{\mathrm{vir}}$ considered at $z>3$ , this transition radius can sometimes exceed 0.5 $R_{\mathrm{vir}}$. We also compute the escape fraction at $R_{\mathrm{vir}}$, finding typical values of less than $0.1$, except in higher-mass halos ($M_{\mathrm{halo}} \gtrsim 10^{12} \mathrm{M}_{\odot}$), which have consistently high values of $\sim 0.5-0.6$. Our results indicate that at low redshift, it is reasonable to ignore the ionizing radiation from host-galaxy stars outside of 0.2 $R_{\mathrm{vir}}$, while at Cosmic Noon, local stellar ionizing radiation likely extends further into the CGM and thus should be included in photoionization calculations.

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Inspiraling streams of enriched gas observed around a massive galaxy 11 billion years ago

Stars form in galaxies, from gas that has been accreted from the intergalactic medium. Simulations have shown that recycling of gas-the reaccretion of gas that was previously ejected from a galaxy-could sustain star formation in the early Universe. We observe the gas surrounding a massive galaxy at redshift 2.3 and detect emission lines from neutral hydrogen, helium, and ionized carbon that extend 100 kiloparsecs from the galaxy. The kinematics of this circumgalactic gas is consistent with an inspiraling stream. The carbon abundance indicates that the gas had already been enriched with elements heavier than helium, previously ejected from a galaxy. We interpret the results as evidence of gas recycling during high-redshift galaxy assembly.

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Public data release of the FIRE-2 cosmological zoom-in simulations of galaxy formation

We describe a public data release of the FIRE-2 cosmological zoom-in simulations of galaxy formation, available at http://flathub.flatironinstitute.org/fire, from the Feedback In Realistic Environments (FIRE) project. FIRE-2 simulations achieve parsec-scale resolution to explicitly model the multi-phase interstellar medium while implementing direct models for stellar evolution and feedback, including stellar winds, core-collapse and Ia supernovae, radiation pressure, photoionization, and photoelectric heating. We release complete snapshots from 3 suites of simulations. The first comprises 20 simulations that zoom in on 14 Milky Way-mass galaxies, 5 SMC/LMC-mass galaxies, and 4 lower-mass galaxies including 1 ultra-faint; we release 39 snapshots across z = 0 - 10. The second comprises 4 massive galaxies, with 19 snapshots across z = 1 - 10. Finally, a high-redshift suite comprises 22 simulations, with 11 snapshots across z = 5 - 10. Each simulation also includes dozens of resolved lower-mass (satellite) galaxies in its zoom-in region. Snapshots include all stored properties for all dark matter, gas, and star particles, including 11 elemental abundances for stars and gas, and formation times (ages) of star particles. We also release accompanying (sub)halo catalogs, which include galaxy properties and member star particles. For the simulations to z = 0, including all Milky Way-mass galaxies, we release the formation coordinates and an "ex-situ" flag for all star particles, pointers to track particles across snapshots, catalogs of stellar streams, and multipole basis expansions for the halo mass distributions. We describe publicly available python packages for reading and analyzing these simulations.

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Spatially Resolved Gas-phase Metallicity in FIRE-2 Dwarfs: Late-Time Evolution of Metallicity Relations in Simulations with Feedback and Mergers

We present an analysis of spatially resolved gas-phase metallicity relations in five dwarf galaxies ($M_{halo} \approx 10^{11} M_\odot$, $M_\star \approx 10^{8.8}-10^{9.6} M_\odot$) from the FIRE-2 (Feedback in Realistic Environments) cosmological zoom-in simulation suite, which include an explicit model for sub-grid turbulent mixing of metals in gas, near $z\approx 0$, over a period of 1.4 Gyrs, and compare our findings with observations. While these dwarf galaxies represent a diverse sample, we find that all simulated galaxies match the observed mass-metallicity (MZR) and mass-metallicity gradient (MZGR) relations. We note that in all five galaxies, the metallicities are effectively identical between phases of the interstellar medium (ISM), with 95$\%$ being within $\pm$0.1 dex between various ISM phases, including the cold and dense gas ($T < 500$ K and $n_{\rm H} > 1$ cm$^{-3}$), ionized gas (near the H$α$ $T \approx 10^4$ K ridge-line), and nebular regions (ionized gas where the 10 Myr-averaged star formation rate is non-zero). We find that most of the scatter in relative metallicity between cold and dense gas and ionized gas/nebular regions can be attributed to either local starburst events or metal-poor inflows. We also note the presence of a major merger in one of our galaxies, m11e, with a substantial impact on the metallicity distribution in the spatially resolved map, showing two strong metallicity peaks and triggering a starburst in the main galaxy.

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Formation of proto-globular cluster candidates in cosmological simulations of dwarf galaxies at $z>4$

We perform cosmological hydrodynamical simulations to study the formation of proto-globular cluster candidates in progenitors of present-day dwarf galaxies $(M_{\rm vir} \approx 10^{10}\, {\rm M}_\odot$ at $z=0$) as part of the "Feedback in Realistic Environment" (FIRE) project. Compact ($r_{1/2}<30$ pc), relatively massive ($0.5 \times 10^5 \lesssim M_{\star}/{\rm M}_\odot \lesssim 5\times10^5$), self-bound stellar clusters form at $11\gtrsim z \gtrsim 5$ in progenitors with $M_{\rm vir} \approx 10^9\,{\rm M}_\odot$. Cluster formation is triggered when at least $10^7\,{\rm M}_\odot$ of dense, turbulent gas reaches $Σ_{\rm gas} \approx 10^4\, {\rm M}_\odot\, {\rm pc}^{-2}$ as a result of the compressive effects of supernova feedback or from cloud-cloud collisions. The clusters can survive for $2-3\,{\rm Gyr}$; absent numerical effects, they would likely survive substantially longer, perhaps to $z=0$. The longest-lived clusters are those that form at significant distance -- several hundreds of pc -- from their host galaxy. We therefore predict that globular clusters forming in progenitors of present-day dwarf galaxies will be offset from any pre-existing stars within their host dark matter halos as opposed to deeply embedded within a well-defined galaxy. Properties of the nascent clusters are consistent with observations of some of the faintest and most compact high-redshift sources in \textit{Hubble Space Telescope} lensing fields and are at the edge of what will be detectable as point sources in deep imaging of non-lensed fields with the \textit{James Webb Space Telescope}. By contrast, the star clusters' host galaxies will remain undetectable.

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FIRE-3: Updated Stellar Evolution Models, Yields, & Microphysics and Fitting Functions for Applications in Galaxy Simulations

Increasingly, uncertainties in predictions from galaxy formation simulations (at sub-Milky Way masses) are dominated by uncertainties in stellar evolution inputs. In this paper, we present the full set of updates from the FIRE-2 version of the Feedback In Realistic Environments (FIRE) project code, to the next version, FIRE-3. While the transition from FIRE-1 to FIRE-2 focused on improving numerical methods, here we update the stellar evolution tracks used to determine stellar feedback inputs, e.g. stellar mass-loss (O/B and AGB), spectra (luminosities and ionization rates), and supernova rates (core-collapse and Ia), as well as detailed mass-dependent yields. We also update the low-temperature cooling and chemistry, to enable improved accuracy at $T \lesssim 10^{4}\,$K and densities $n\gg 1\,{\rm cm^{-3}}$, and the meta-galactic ionizing background. All of these synthesize newer empirical constraints on these quantities and updated stellar evolution and yield models from a number of groups, addressing different aspects of stellar evolution. To make the updated models as accessible as possible, we provide fitting functions for all of the relevant updated tracks, yields, etc, in a form specifically designed so they can be directly 'plugged in' to existing galaxy formation simulations. We also summarize the default FIRE-3 implementations of 'optional' physics, including spectrally-resolved cosmic rays and supermassive black hole growth and feedback.

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Seeds Don't Sink: Even Massive Black Hole "Seeds" Cannot Migrate to Galaxy Centers Efficiently

Possible formation scenarios of supermassive black holes in the early universe include rapid growth from less massive seed black holes (BHs) via super-Eddington accretion or runaway mergers, yet both of these scenarios would require seed BHs to efficiently sink to and be trapped in the galactic center via dynamical friction. This may not be true for their complicated dynamics in clumpy high-$z$ galaxies. In this work we study this "sinking problem" with state-of-the-art high-resolution cosmological simulations, combined with both direct $N$-body integration of seed BH trajectories and post-processing of randomly generated test particles with a newly developed dynamical friction estimator. We find that seed BHs less massive than $10^8\,M_\odot$ (i.e., all but the already-supermassive seeds) cannot efficiently sink in typical high-$z$ galaxies. We also discuss two possible solutions: dramatically increasing the number of seeds such that one seed can end up trapped in the galactic center by chance, or seed BHs being embedded in dense structures (e.g. star clusters) with effective masses above the mass threshold. We discuss the limitations of both solutions.

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3-D gas-phase elemental abundances across the formation histories of Milky Way-mass galaxies in the FIRE simulations: initial conditions for chemical tagging

We use FIRE-2 simulations to examine 3-D variations of gas-phase elemental abundances of [O/H], [Fe/H], and [N/H] in 11 Milky Way (MW) and M31-mass galaxies across their formation histories at $z \leq 1.5$ ($t_{\rm lookback} \leq 9.4$ Gyr), motivated by characterizing the initial conditions of stars for chemical tagging. Gas within $1$ kpc of the disk midplane is vertically homogeneous to $\lesssim 0.008$ dex at all $z \leq 1.5$. We find negative radial gradients (metallicity decreases with galactocentric radius) at all times, which steepen over time from $\approx -0.01$ dex kpc$^{-1}$ at $z = 1$ ($t_{\rm lookback} = 7.8$ Gyr) to $\approx -0.03$ dex kpc$^{-1}$ at $z = 0$, and which broadly agree with observations of the MW, M31, and nearby MW/M31-mass galaxies. Azimuthal variations at fixed radius are typically $0.14$ dex at $z = 1$, reducing to $0.05$ dex at $z = 0$. Thus, over time radial gradients become steeper while azimuthal variations become weaker (more homogeneous). As a result, azimuthal variations were larger than radial variations at $z \gtrsim 0.8$ ($t_{\rm lookback} \gtrsim 6.9$ Gyr). Furthermore, elemental abundances are measurably homogeneous (to $\lesssim 0.05$ dex) across a radial range of $ΔR \approx 3.5$ kpc at $z \gtrsim 1$ and $ΔR \approx 1.7$ kpc at $z = 0$. We also measure full distributions of elemental abundances, finding typically negatively skewed normal distributions at $z \gtrsim 1$ that evolve to typically Gaussian distributions by $z = 0$. Our results on gas abundances inform the initial conditions for stars, including the spatial and temporal scales for applying chemical tagging to understand stellar birth in the MW.

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Testing the Relationship Between Bursty Star Formation and Size Fluctuations of Local Dwarf Galaxies

Stellar feedback in dwarf galaxies plays a critical role in regulating star formation via galaxy-scale winds. Recent hydrodynamical zoom simulations of dwarf galaxies predict that the periodic outward flow of gas can change the gravitational potential sufficiently to cause radial migration of stars. To test the effect of bursty star formation on stellar migration, we examine star formation observables and sizes of 86 local dwarf galaxies. We find a correlation between the R-band half-light radius (R$_e$) and far-UV luminosity (L$_{FUV}$) for stellar masses below 10$^8 $ M$_{\odot}$ and a weak correlation between the R$_e$ and H$α$ luminosity (L$_{Hα}$). We produce mock observations of eight low-mass galaxies from the FIRE-2 cosmological simulations and measure the similarity of the time sequences of R$_e$ and a number of star formation indicators with different timescales. Major episodes of R$_e$ time sequence align very well with the major episodes of star formation, with a delay of $\sim$ 50 Myrs. This correlation decreases towards SFR indicators of shorter timescales such that $R_e$ is weakly correlated with L$_{FUV}$ (10-100 Myr timescale) and is completely uncorrelated with L$_{Hα}$ (a few Myr timescale), in agreement with the observations. Our findings based on FIRE-2 suggest that the R-band size of a galaxy reacts to star formation variations on a $\sim50$ Myr timescale. With the advent of a new generation of large space telescopes (e.g., JWST), this effect can be examined explicitly in galaxies at higher redshifts where bursty star formation is more prominent.

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The contribution of globular clusters to cosmic reionization

We study the escape fraction of ionizing photons (f_esc) in two cosmological zoom-in simulations of galaxies in the reionization era with halo mass M_halo~10^10 and 10^11 M_sun (stellar mass M*~10^7 and 10^9 M_sun) at z=5 from the Feedback in Realistic Environments project. These simulations explicitly resolve the formation of proto-globular clusters (GCs) self-consistently, where 17-39% of stars form in bound clusters during starbursts. Using post-processing Monte Carlo radiative transfer calculations of ionizing radiation, we compute f_esc from cluster stars and non-cluster stars formed during a starburst over ~100 Myr in each galaxy. We find that the averaged f_esc over the lifetime of a star particle follows a similar distribution for cluster stars and non-cluster stars. Clusters tend to have low f_esc in the first few Myrs, presumably because they form preferentially in more extreme environments with high optical depths; the f_esc increases later as feedback starts to disrupt the natal cloud. On the other hand, non-cluster stars formed between cluster complexes or in the compressed shell at the front of a superbubble can also have high f_esc. We find that cluster stars on average have comparable f_esc to non-cluster stars. This result is robust across several star formation models in our simulations. Our results suggest that the fraction of ionizing photons from proto-GCs to cosmic reionization is comparable to the cluster formation efficiency in high-redshift galaxies and hence proto-GCs likely contribute an appreciable fraction of photons but are not the dominant sources for reionization.

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The bursty origin of the Milky Way thick disc

We investigate thin and thick stellar disc formation in Milky-Way-mass galaxies using twelve FIRE-2 cosmological zoom-in simulations. All simulated galaxies experience an early period of bursty star formation that transitions to a late-time steady phase of near-constant star formation. Stars formed during the late-time steady phase have more circular orbits and thin-disc-like morphology at $z=0$, whilst stars born during the bursty phase have more radial orbits and thick-disc structure. The median age of thick-disc stars at $z=0$ correlates strongly with this transition time. We also find that galaxies with an earlier transition from bursty to steady star formation have a higher thin-disc fractions at $z=0$. Three of our systems have minor mergers with LMC-size satellites during the thin-disc phase. These mergers trigger short starbursts but do not destroy the thin disc nor alter broad trends between the star formation transition time and thin/thick disc properties. If our simulations are representative of the Universe, then stellar archaeological studies of the Milky Way (or M31) provide a window into past star-formation modes in the Galaxy. Current age estimates of the Galactic thick disc would suggest that the Milky Way transitioned from bursty to steady phase $\sim$6.5 Gyr ago; prior to that time the Milky Way likely lacked a recognisable thin disc.

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Exploring the epoch of hydrogen reionization using FRBs

We describe three different methods for exploring the hydrogen reionization epoch using fast radio bursts (FRBs) and provide arguments for the existence of FRBs at high redshift (z). The simplest way, observationally, is to determine the maximum dispersion measure (DM$_{\rm max}$) of FRBs for an ensemble that includes bursts during the reionization. The DM$_{\rm max}$ provides information regarding reionization much like the optical depth of the CMB to Thomson scattering does, and it has the potential to be more accurate than constraints from Planck, if DM$_{\rm max}$ can be measured to a precision better than 500 $\mbox{pc cm}^{-3}$. Another method is to measure redshifts of about 40 FRBs between z of 6-10 with$\sim10\%$ accuracy to obtain the average electron density in 4 different z-bins with $\sim4\%$ accuracy. These two methods don't require knowledge of the FRB luminosity function and its possible redshift evolution. Finally, we show that the reionization history is reflected in the number of FRBs per unit DM, given a fluence limited survey of FRBs that includes bursts during the reionization epoch; we show using FIRE simulations that the contributions to DM from the FRB host galaxy $\&$ CGM during the reionization era is a small fraction of the observed DM. This third method requires no redshift information but does require knowledge of the FRB luminosity function.

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Virialization of the inner CGM in the FIRE simulations and implications for galaxy discs, star formation and feedback

We use the FIRE-2 cosmological simulations to study the formation of a quasi-static, virial-temperature gas phase in the circumgalactic medium (CGM) at redshifts 0<z<5, and how the formation of this virialized phase affects the evolution of galactic discs. We demonstrate that when the halo mass crosses ~10^12 M_sun, the cooling time of shocked gas in the inner CGM (~0.1 R_vir, where R_vir is the virial radius) exceeds the local free-fall time. The inner CGM then experiences a transition from on average sub-virial temperatures (T<<T_vir), large pressure fluctuations and supersonic inflow/outflow velocities, to virial temperatures (T~T_vir), uniform pressures and subsonic velocities. This transition occurs when the outer CGM (~0.5 R_vir) is already subsonic and has a temperature ~T_vir, indicating that the longer cooling times at large radii allow the outer CGM to virialize at lower halo masses than the inner CGM. This outside-in CGM virialization scenario is in contrast with inside-out scenarios commonly envisioned based on more idealized simulations. We demonstrate that inner CGM virialization coincides with abrupt changes in the central galaxy and its stellar feedback: the galaxy settles into a stable rotating disc, star formation transitions from `bursty' to `steady,' and stellar-driven galaxy-scale outflows are suppressed. Our results thus suggest that CGM virialization is initially associated with the formation of rotation-dominated thin galactic discs, rather than with the quenching of star formation as often assumed.

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No missing photons for reionization: moderate ionizing photon escape fractions from the FIRE-2 simulations

We present the escape fraction of hydrogen ionizing photons (f_esc) from a sample of 34 high-resolution cosmological zoom-in simulations of galaxies at z>5 in the Feedback in Realistic Environments project, post-processed with a Monte Carlo radiative transfer code for ionizing radiation. Our sample consists of 8500 halos in M_vir~10^8--10^{12} M_sun (M_star~10^4--10^{10} M_sun) at z=5--12. We find the sample average increases with halo mass for M_vir~10^8--10^{9.5} M_sun, becomes nearly constant for M_vir~10^{9.5}--10^{11} M_sun, and decreases at M_vir>10^{11} M_sun. Equivalently, increases with stellar mass up to M_star~10^8 M_sun and decreases at higher masses. Even applying single-star stellar population synthesis models, we find a moderate ~0.2 for galaxies at M_star~10^8 M_sun. Nearly half of the escaped ionizing photons come from stars 1--3 Myr old and the rest from stars 3--10 Myr old. Binaries only have a modest effect, boosting by ~25--35% and the number of escaped photons by 60--80%. Most leaked ionizing photons are from vigorously star-forming regions that usually contain a feedback-driven kpc-scale superbubble surrounded by a dense shell. The shell is forming stars while accelerated, so new stars formed earlier in the shell are already inside the shell. Young stars in the bubble and near the edge of the shell can fully ionize some low-column-density paths pre-cleared by feedback, allowing a large fraction of their ionizing photons to escape. The decrease of at the high-mass end is due to dust attenuation, while at the low-mass end, decreases owing to inefficient star formation (and hence feedback). At fixed mass, tends to increase with redshift. Our simulations produce sufficient ionizing photons for cosmic reionization.

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A model for the formation of stellar associations and clusters from giant molecular clouds

We present a large suite of MHD simulations of turbulent, star-forming giant molecular clouds(GMCs) with stellar feedback, extending previous work by simulating 10 different random realizations for each point in the parameter space of cloud mass and size. It is found that oncethe clouds disperse due to stellar feedback, both self-gravitating star clusters and unbound stars generally remain, which arise from the same underlying continuum of substructured stellar density, ie. the hierarchical cluster formation scenario. The fraction of stars that are born within gravitationally-bound star clusters is related to the overall cloud star formation efficiency set by stellar feedback, but has significant scatter due to stochastic variations in the small-scale details of the star-forming gas flow. We use our numerical results to calibrate a model for mapping the bulk properties (mass, size, and metallicity) of self-gravitating GMCs onto the star cluster populations they form, expressed statistically in terms of cloud-level distributions. Synthesizing cluster catalogues from an observed GMC catalogue in M83, we find that this model predicts initial star cluster masses and sizes that are in good agreement with observations, using only standard IMF and stellar evolution models as inputs for feedback. Within our model, the ratio of the strength of gravity to stellar feedback is the key parameter setting the masses of star clusters, and of the various feedback channels direct stellar radiation(photon momentum and photoionization) is the most important on GMC scales.

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