arXiv subjects

Xiangmin Zhou

Publications and source records attributed to Xiangmin Zhou.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

JAPE: Joint Anomaly Prediction and Intrinsic Explanation in Multivariate Time Series

Multivariate time-series anomaly prediction aims to identify whether and when anomalies will occur over a future horizon from historical observations. Existing methods primarily characterize anomalies as deviations in future numerical values, which may overlook subtle dependency changes induced by weak anomaly precursors and provide no native variable-level explanation together with the alert. To bridge these gaps, we propose JAPE, a Joint Anomaly Prediction and Explanation framework that lifts anomaly prediction from numerical-deviation modeling to dependency-structure modeling. JAPE is the first anomaly prediction framework to explicitly model evolving dependency structures for both point-wise alerting and native variable-level explanation. Specifically, JAPE (i) proposes a Decoupled Spatio-Temporal Representation (DSTR) backbone that decouples temporal and spatial modeling and captures lag-aware dependencies via learnable lag aggregation, thereby perceiving structural precursors before numerical deviations emerge; (ii) designs a dual-view alerting mechanism that fuses numerical forecasts with evolving dependency graphs for point-wise anomaly prediction, capturing structural evidence even under subtle numerical deviations; and (iii) presents Native Predictive Explanation (NPE), which directly reuses the predicted dependency graphs to rank variables by structural deviations without additional models or training. Extensive experiments on five real-world benchmarks across three prediction horizons demonstrate that JAPE improves average F1 and AUC-PR by 19.7% and 41.3%, respectively, while improving explainability with 26.6% gain in MRR.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Social Media Data Mining of Human Behaviour during Bushfire Evacuation

Traditional data sources on bushfire evacuation behaviour, such as quantitative surveys and manual observations have severe limitations. Mining social media data related to bushfire evacuations promises to close this gap by allowing the collection and processing of a large amount of behavioural data, which are low-cost, accurate, possibly including location information and rich contextual information. However, social media data have many limitations, such as being scattered, incomplete, informal, etc. Together, these limitations represent several challenges to their usefulness to better understand bushfire evacuation. To overcome these challenges and provide guidance on which and how social media data can be used, this scoping review of the literature reports on recent advances in relevant data mining techniques. In addition, future applications and open problems are discussed. We envision future applications such as evacuation model calibration and validation, emergency communication, personalised evacuation training, and resource allocation for evacuation preparedness. We identify open problems such as data quality, bias and representativeness, geolocation accuracy, contextual understanding, crisis-specific lexicon and semantics, and multimodal data interpretation.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2025

MFiSP: A Multimodal Fire Spread Prediction Framework

The 2019-2020 Black Summer bushfires in Australia devastated 19 million hectares, destroyed 3,000 homes, and lasted seven months, demonstrating the escalating scale and urgency of wildfire threats requiring better forecasting for effective response. Traditional fire modeling relies on manual interpretation by Fire Behaviour Analysts (FBAns) and static environmental data, often leading to inaccuracies and operational limitations. Emerging data sources, such as NASA's FIRMS satellite imagery and Volunteered Geographic Information, offer potential improvements by enabling dynamic fire spread prediction. This study proposes a Multimodal Fire Spread Prediction Framework (MFiSP) that integrates social media data and remote sensing observations to enhance forecast accuracy. By adapting fuel map manipulation strategies between assimilation cycles, the framework dynamically adjusts fire behavior predictions to align with the observed rate of spread. We evaluate the efficacy of MFiSP using synthetically generated fire event polygons across multiple scenarios, analyzing individual and combined impacts on forecast perimeters. Results suggest that our MFiSP integrating multimodal data can improve fire spread prediction beyond conventional methods reliant on FBAn expertise and static inputs.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2025

Enhanced Influence-aware Group Recommendation for Online Media Propagation

Group recommendation over social media streams has attracted significant attention due to its wide applications in domains such as e-commerce, entertainment, and online news broadcasting. By leveraging social connections and group behaviours, group recommendation (GR) aims to provide more accurate and engaging content to a set of users rather than individuals. Recently, influence-aware GR has emerged as a promising direction, as it considers the impact of social influence on group decision-making. In earlier work, we proposed Influence-aware Group Recommendation (IGR) to solve this task. However, this task remains challenging due to three key factors: the large and ever-growing scale of social graphs, the inherently dynamic nature of influence propagation within user groups, and the high computational overhead of real-time group-item matching. To tackle these issues, we propose an Enhanced Influence-aware Group Recommendation (EIGR) framework. First, we introduce a Graph Extraction-based Sampling (GES) strategy to minimise redundancy across multiple temporal social graphs and effectively capture the evolving dynamics of both groups and items. Second, we design a novel DYnamic Independent Cascade (DYIC) model to predict how influence propagates over time across social items and user groups. Finally, we develop a two-level hash-based User Group Index (UG-Index) to efficiently organise user groups and enable real-time recommendation generation. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed framework, EIGR, consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both effectiveness and efficiency.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2023

Online Anomaly Detection over Live Social Video Streaming

Social video anomaly is an observation in video streams that does not conform to a common pattern of dataset's behaviour. Social video anomaly detection plays a critical role in applications from e-commerce to e-learning. Traditionally, anomaly detection techniques are applied to find anomalies in video broadcasting. However, they neglect the live social video streams which contain interactive talk, speech, or lecture with audience. In this paper, we propose a generic framework for effectively online detecting Anomalies Over social Video LIve Streaming (AOVLIS). Specifically, we propose a novel deep neural network model called Coupling Long Short-Term Memory (CLSTM) that adaptively captures the history behaviours of the presenters and audience, and their mutual interactions to predict their behaviour at next time point over streams. Then we well integrate the CLSTM with a decoder layer, and propose a new reconstruction error-based scoring function $RE_{IA}$ to calculate the anomaly score of each video segment for anomaly detection. After that, we propose a novel model update scheme that incrementally maintains CLSTM and decoder. Moreover, we design a novel upper bound and ADaptive Optimisation Strategy (ADOS) for improving the efficiency of our solution. Extensive experiments are conducted to prove the superiority of AOVLIS.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2019

Online Social Media Recommendation over Streams

As one of the most popular services over online communities, the social recommendation has attracted increasing research efforts recently. Among all the recommendation tasks, an important one is social item recommendation over high speed social media streams. Existing streaming recommendation techniques are not effective for handling social users with diverse interests. Meanwhile, approaches for recommending items to a particular user are not efficient when applied to a huge number of users over high speed streams. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for the social recommendation over streaming environments. Specifically, we first propose a novel Bi-Layer Hidden Markov Model (BiHMM) that adaptively captures the behaviors of social users and their interactions with influential official accounts to predict their long-term and short-term interests. Then, we design a new probabilistic entity matching scheme for effectively identifying the relevance score of a streaming item to a user. Following that, we propose a novel indexing scheme called {\Tree} for improving the efficiency of our solution. Extensive experiments are conducted to prove the high performance of our approach in terms of the recommendation quality and time cost.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2012

MediaWise - Designing a Smart Media Cloud

The MediaWise project aims to expand the scope of existing media delivery systems with novel cloud, personalization and collaboration capabilities that can serve the needs of more users, communities, and businesses. The project develops a MediaWise Cloud platform that supports do-it-yourself creation, search, management, and consumption of multimedia content. The MediaWise Cloud supports pay-as-you-go models and elasticity that are similar to those offered by commercially available cloud services. However, unlike existing commercial CDN services providers such as Limelight Networks and Akamai the MediaWise Cloud require no ownerships of computing infrastructure and instead rely on the public Internet and public cloud services (e.g., commercial cloud storage to store its content). In addition to integrating such public cloud services into a public cloud-based Content Delivery Network, the MediaWise Cloud also provides advanced Quality of Service (QoS) management as required for the delivery of streamed and interactive high resolution multimedia content. In this paper, we give a brief overview of MediaWise Cloud architecture and present a comprehensive discussion on research objectives related to its service components. Finally, we also compare the features supported by the existing CDN services against the envisioned objectives of MediaWise Cloud.

cs.DC↗