arXiv subjects

Xiangyi Xiao

Publications and source records attributed to Xiangyi Xiao.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Beyond Isolated Investor: Predicting Startup Success via Roleplay-Based Collective Agents

Due to the high value and high failure rates of startups, predicting their success is a critical challenge. Existing approaches typically model startup success from a single decision-maker's perspective, overlooking the collective dynamics that dominate real-world venture capital (VC) decision-making. We propose SimVC-CAS, a collective agent system that simulates VC decisions as a multi-agent interaction process. By designing role-playing agents and a GNN-based supervised interaction module, we reformulate startup financing prediction as a group decision-making task, capturing both enterprise fundamentals and investor network dynamics. Each agent represents an investor with distinct traits and preferences, enabling heterogeneous evaluations and realistic information exchange over a graph-structured co-investment network. Using both proprietary and public VC data with strict anti-leakage controls, we show that SimVC-CAS significantly improves predictive performance, achieving approximately 25% relative improvement in average precision@10, while exhibiting consistency with real investor decisions. The interaction mechanism is particularly effective for network-central startups, confirming the importance of network in VC decision-making. Analysis of agents' reasoning for decision changes further reveals how network environment influence decision quality, demonstrating the system's interpretability. Our approach may generalize to broader group decision-making scenarios.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

The Gaining Paths to Investment Success: Information-Driven LLM Graph Reasoning for Venture Capital Prediction

Most venture capital (VC) investments fail, while a few deliver outsized returns. Accurately predicting startup success requires synthesizing complex relational evidence, including company disclosures, investor track records, and investment network structures, through explicit reasoning to form coherent, interpretable investment theses. Traditional machine learning and graph neural networks both lack this reasoning capability. Large language models (LLMs) offer strong reasoning but face a modality mismatch with graphs. Recent graph-LLM methods target in-graph tasks where answers lie within the graph, whereas VC prediction is off-graph: the target exists outside the network. The core challenge is selecting graph paths that maximize predictor performance on an external objective while enabling step-by-step reasoning. We present MIRAGE-VC, a multi-perspective retrieval-augmented generation framework that addresses two obstacles: path explosion (thousands of candidate paths overwhelm LLM context) and heterogeneous evidence fusion (different startups need different analytical emphasis). Our information-gain-driven path retriever iteratively selects high-value neighbors, distilling investment networks into compact chains for explicit reasoning. A multi-agent architecture integrates three evidence streams via a learnable gating mechanism based on company attributes. Under strict anti-leakage controls, MIRAGE-VC achieves +5.0% F1 and +16.6% PrecisionAt5, and sheds light on other off-graph prediction tasks such as recommendation and risk assessment. Code: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/MIRAGE-VC-323F.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Tracing Footsteps of Similar Cities: Modeling Urban Economic Vitality with Dynamic Inter-City Graph Embeddings

Urban economic vitality is a crucial indicator of a city's long-term growth potential, comprising key metrics such as the annual number of new companies and the population employed. However, modeling urban economic vitality remains challenging. This study develops ECO-GROW, a multi-graph framework modeling China's inter-city networks (2005-2021) to generate urban embeddings that model urban economic vitality. Traditional approaches relying on static city-level aggregates fail to capture a fundamental dynamic: the developmental trajectory of one city today may mirror that of its structurally similar counterparts tomorrow. ECO-GROW overcomes this limitation by integrating industrial linkages, POI similarities, migration similarities and temporal network evolution over 15 years. The framework combines a Dynamic Top-K GCN to adaptively select influential inter-city connections and an adaptive Graph Scorer mechanism to dynamically weight cross-regional impacts. Additionally, the model incorporates a link prediction task based on Barabasi Proximity, optimizing the graph representation. Experimental results demonstrate ECO-GROW's superior accuracy in predicting entrepreneurial activities and employment trends compared to conventional models. By open-sourcing our code, we enable government agencies and public sector organizations to leverage big data analytics for evidence-based urban planning, economic policy formulation, and resource allocation decisions that benefit society at large.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

When Life Paths Cross: Extracting Human Interactions in Time and Space from Wikipedia

Interactions among notable individuals -- whether examined individually, in groups, or as networks -- often convey significant messages across cultural, economic, political, scientific, and historical perspectives. By analyzing the times and locations of these interactions, we can observe how dynamics unfold across regions over time. However, relevant studies are often constrained by data scarcity, particularly concerning the availability of specific location and time information. To address this issue, we mine millions of biography pages from Wikipedia, extracting 685,966 interaction records in the form of (Person1, Person2, Time, Location) interaction quadruplets. The key elements of these interactions are often scattered throughout the heterogeneous crowd-sourced text and may be loosely or indirectly associated. We overcome this challenge by designing a model that integrates attention mechanisms, multi-task learning, and feature transfer methods, achieving an F1 score of 86.51%, which outperforms baseline models. We further conduct an empirical analysis of intra- and inter-party interactions among political figures to examine political polarization in the US, showcasing the potential of the extracted data from a perspective that may not be possible without this data. We make our code, the extracted interaction data, and the WikiInteraction dataset of 4,507 labeled interaction quadruplets publicly available.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2023

Conservative adventurers have more future academic impact

Some scientists explore unfamiliar topics, while others exploit existing ones, yet the link between these choices and academic performance remains unclear. Prior studies offer conflicting evidence, often relying on single metrics and overlooking confounding factors. To address this, we complement the traditional switch frequency metric with switch distances, control for confounders, and establish a clear connection between past switching behaviors and future performance. We identify a group, 'conservative adventurers', who frequently switch topics within close domains, excelling in future performance compared to others (up to 19% more citations per future paper). This rare behavioral pattern suggests an effective balance between exploration and exploitation. Beyond correlations, we question whether conservative adventuring can be intentionally adopted as a strategy. While proving intentionality is challenging, individuals who drastically transition to conservative adventurers likely do so purposefully, achieving significant performance gains. Our findings, based on three datasets covering 31,780,857 papers in physics, biomedicine, and chemistry primarily since the twentieth century (1976-2015 for physics; 1900-2021 for biomedicine and chemistry), provide insights for scientific career understanding and planning, particularly for junior scientists.

cs.DL↗