arXiv subjects

Xiao-Hua Zhou

Publications and source records attributed to Xiao-Hua Zhou.

35 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

ADRNet: A Generalized Collaborative Filtering Framework Combining Clinical and Non-Clinical Data for Adverse Drug Reaction Prediction

Adverse drug reaction (ADR) prediction plays a crucial role in both health care and drug discovery for reducing patient mortality and enhancing drug safety. Recently, many studies have been devoted to effectively predict the drug-ADRs incidence rates. However, these methods either did not effectively utilize non-clinical data, i.e., physical, chemical, and biological information about the drug, or did little to establish a link between content-based and pure collaborative filtering during the training phase. In this paper, we first formulate the prediction of multi-label ADRs as a drug-ADR collaborative filtering problem, and to the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to provide extensive benchmark results of previous collaborative filtering methods on two large publicly available clinical datasets. Then, by exploiting the easy accessible drug characteristics from non-clinical data, we propose ADRNet, a generalized collaborative filtering framework combining clinical and non-clinical data for drug-ADR prediction. Specifically, ADRNet has a shallow collaborative filtering module and a deep drug representation module, which can exploit the high-dimensional drug descriptors to further guide the learning of low-dimensional ADR latent embeddings, which incorporates both the benefits of collaborative filtering and representation learning. Extensive experiments are conducted on two publicly available real-world drug-ADR clinical datasets and two non-clinical datasets to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed ADRNet. The code is available at https://github.com/haoxuanli-pku/ADRnet.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2022

Multiple Robust Learning for Recommendation

In recommender systems, a common problem is the presence of various biases in the collected data, which deteriorates the generalization ability of the recommendation models and leads to inaccurate predictions. Doubly robust (DR) learning has been studied in many tasks in RS, with the advantage that unbiased learning can be achieved when either a single imputation or a single propensity model is accurate. In this paper, we propose a multiple robust (MR) estimator that can take the advantage of multiple candidate imputation and propensity models to achieve unbiasedness. Specifically, the MR estimator is unbiased when any of the imputation or propensity models, or a linear combination of these models is accurate. Theoretical analysis shows that the proposed MR is an enhanced version of DR when only having a single imputation and propensity model, and has a smaller bias. Inspired by the generalization error bound of MR, we further propose a novel multiple robust learning approach with stabilization. We conduct extensive experiments on real-world and semi-synthetic datasets, which demonstrates the superiority of the proposed approach over state-of-the-art methods.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2022

Hypothesis test on a mixture forward-incubation-time epidemic model with application to COVID-19 outbreak

The distribution of the incubation period of the novel coronavirus disease that emerged in 2019 (COVID-19) has crucial clinical implications for understanding this disease and devising effective disease-control measures. Qin et al. (2020) designed a cross-sectional and forward follow-up study to collect the duration times between a specific observation time and the onset of COVID-19 symptoms for a number of individuals. They further proposed a mixture forward-incubation-time epidemic model, which is a mixture of an incubation-period distribution and a forward time distribution, to model the collected duration times and to estimate the incubation-period distribution of COVID-19. In this paper, we provide sufficient conditions for the identifiability of the unknown parameters in the mixture forward-incubation-time epidemic model when the incubation period follows a two-parameter distribution. Under the same setup, we propose a likelihood ratio test (LRT) for testing the null hypothesis that the mixture forward-incubation-time epidemic model is a homogeneous exponential distribution. The testing problem is non-regular because a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative. We establish the limiting distribution of the LRT and identify an explicit representation for it. The limiting distribution of the LRT under a sequence of local alternatives is also obtained. Our simulation results indicate that the LRT has desirable type I errors and powers, and we analyze a COVID-19 outbreak dataset from China to illustrate the usefulness of the LRT.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Causal Inference with Truncation-by-Death and Unmeasured Confounding

Clinical studies sometimes encounter truncation by death, rendering outcomes undefined. Statistical analysis based solely on observed survivors may give biased results because the characteristics of survivors differ between treatment groups. By principal stratification, the survivor average causal effect was proposed as a causal estimand defined in always-survivors. However, this estimand is not identifiable when there is unmeasured confounding between the treatment assignment and survival or outcome process. In this paper, we consider the comparison between an aggressive treatment and a conservative treatment with monotonicity on survival. First, we show that the survivor average causal effect on the conservative treatment is identifiable based on a substitutional variable under appropriate assumptions, even when the treatment assignment is not ignorable. Next, we propose an augmented inverse probability weighting (AIPW) type estimator for this estimand with double robustness. Finally, large sample properties of this estimator are established. The proposed method is applied to investigate the effect of allogeneic stem cell transplantation types on leukemia relapse.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

A Generalized Doubly Robust Learning Framework for Debiasing Post-Click Conversion Rate Prediction

Post-click conversion rate (CVR) prediction is an essential task for discovering user interests and increasing platform revenues in a range of industrial applications. One of the most challenging problems of this task is the existence of severe selection bias caused by the inherent self-selection behavior of users and the item selection process of systems. Currently, doubly robust (DR) learning approaches achieve the state-of-the-art performance for debiasing CVR prediction. However, in this paper, by theoretically analyzing the bias, variance and generalization bounds of DR methods, we find that existing DR approaches may have poor generalization caused by inaccurate estimation of propensity scores and imputation errors, which often occur in practice. Motivated by such analysis, we propose a generalized learning framework that not only unifies existing DR methods, but also provides a valuable opportunity to develop a series of new debiasing techniques to accommodate different application scenarios. Based on the framework, we propose two new DR methods, namely DR-BIAS and DR-MSE. DR-BIAS directly controls the bias of DR loss, while DR-MSE balances the bias and variance flexibly, which achieves better generalization performance. In addition, we propose a novel tri-level joint learning optimization method for DR-MSE in CVR prediction, and an efficient training algorithm correspondingly. We conduct extensive experiments on both real-world and semi-synthetic datasets, which validate the effectiveness of our proposed methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

On the Opportunity of Causal Learning in Recommendation Systems: Foundation, Estimation, Prediction and Challenges

Recently, recommender system (RS) based on causal inference has gained much attention in the industrial community, as well as the states of the art performance in many prediction and debiasing tasks. Nevertheless, a unified causal analysis framework has not been established yet. Many causal-based prediction and debiasing studies rarely discuss the causal interpretation of various biases and the rationality of the corresponding causal assumptions. In this paper, we first provide a formal causal analysis framework to survey and unify the existing causal-inspired recommendation methods, which can accommodate different scenarios in RS. Then we propose a new taxonomy and give formal causal definitions of various biases in RS from the perspective of violating the assumptions adopted in causal analysis. Finally, we formalize many debiasing and prediction tasks in RS, and summarize the statistical and machine learning-based causal estimation methods, expecting to provide new research opportunities and perspectives to the causal RS community.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2022

A Semi-Synthetic Dataset Generation Framework for Causal Inference in Recommender Systems

Accurate recommendation and reliable explanation are two key issues for modern recommender systems. However, most recommendation benchmarks only concern the prediction of user-item ratings while omitting the underlying causes behind the ratings. For example, the widely-used Yahoo!R3 dataset contains little information on the causes of the user-movie ratings. A solution could be to conduct surveys and require the users to provide such information. In practice, the user surveys can hardly avoid compliance issues and sparse user responses, which greatly hinders the exploration of causality-based recommendation. To better support the studies of causal inference and further explanations in recommender systems, we propose a novel semi-synthetic data generation framework for recommender systems where causal graphical models with missingness are employed to describe the causal mechanism of practical recommendation scenarios. To illustrate the use of our framework, we construct a semi-synthetic dataset with Causal Tags And Ratings (CTAR), based on the movies as well as their descriptive tags and rating information collected from a famous movie rating website. Using the collected data and the causal graph, the user-item-ratings and their corresponding user-item-tags are automatically generated, which provides the reasons (selected tags) why the user rates the items. Descriptive statistics and baseline results regarding the CTAR dataset are also reported. The proposed data generation framework is not limited to recommendation, and the released APIs can be used to generate customized datasets for other research tasks.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2021

Improving efficiency of inference in clinical trials with external control data

Suppose we are interested in the effect of a treatment in a clinical trial. The efficiency of inference may be limited due to small sample size. However, external control data are often available from historical studies. Motivated by an application to Helicobacter pylori infection, we show how to borrow strength from such data to improve efficiency of inference in the clinical trial. Under an exchangeability assumption about the potential outcome mean, we show that the semiparametric efficiency bound for estimating the average treatment effect can be reduced by incorporating both the clinical trial data and external controls. We then derive a doubly robust and locally efficient estimator. The improvement in efficiency is prominent especially when the external control dataset has a large sample size and small variability. Our method allows for a relaxed overlap assumption, and we illustrate with the case where the clinical trial only contains a treated group. We also develop doubly robust and locally efficient approaches that extrapolate the causal effect in the clinical trial to the external population and the overall population. Our results also offer a meaningful implication for trial design and data collection. We evaluate the finite-sample performance of the proposed estimators via simulation. In the Helicobacter pylori infection application, our approach shows that the combination treatment has potential efficacy advantages over the triple therapy.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Robust Estimation of Propensity Score Weights via Subclassification

Weighting estimators based on propensity scores are widely used for causal estimation in a variety of contexts, such as observational studies, marginal structural models and interference. They enjoy appealing theoretical properties such as consistency and possible efficiency under correct model specification. However, this theoretical appeal may be diminished in practice by sensitivity to misspecification of the propensity score model. To improve on this, we borrow an idea from an alternative approach to causal effect estimation in observational studies, namely subclassification estimators. It is well known that compared to weighting estimators, subclassification methods are usually more robust to model misspecification. In this paper, we first discuss an intrinsic connection between the seemingly unrelated weighting and subclassification estimators, and then use this connection to construct robust propensity score weights via subclassification. We illustrate this idea by proposing so-called full-classification weights and accompanying estimators for causal effect estimation in observational studies. Our novel estimators are both consistent and robust to model misspecification, thereby combining the strengths of traditional weighting and subclassification estimators for causal effect estimation from observational studies. Numerical studies show that the proposed estimators perform favorably compared to existing methods.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Joint Learning of Multiple Differential Networks with fMRI data for Brain Connectivity Alteration Detection

In this study we focus on the problem of joint learning of multiple differential networks with function Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) data sets from multiple research centers. As the research centers may use different scanners and imaging parameters, joint learning of differential networks with fMRI data from different centers may reflect the underlying mechanism of neurological diseases from different perspectives while capturing the common structures. We transform the task as a penalized logistic regression problem, and exploit sparse group Minimax Concave Penalty (gMCP) to induce common structures among multiple differential networks and the sparse structures of each differential network. To further enhance the empirical performance, we develop an ensemble-learning procedure. We conduct thorough simulation study to assess the finite-sample performance of the proposed method and compare with state-of-the-art alternatives. We apply the proposed method to analyze fMRI datasets related with Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder from various research centers. The identified common hub nodes and differential interaction patterns coincides with the existing experimental studies.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Prevent the Language Model from being Overconfident in Neural Machine Translation

The Neural Machine Translation (NMT) model is essentially a joint language model conditioned on both the source sentence and partial translation. Therefore, the NMT model naturally involves the mechanism of the Language Model (LM) that predicts the next token only based on partial translation. Despite its success, NMT still suffers from the hallucination problem, generating fluent but inadequate translations. The main reason is that NMT pays excessive attention to the partial translation while neglecting the source sentence to some extent, namely overconfidence of the LM. Accordingly, we define the Margin between the NMT and the LM, calculated by subtracting the predicted probability of the LM from that of the NMT model for each token. The Margin is negatively correlated to the overconfidence degree of the LM. Based on the property, we propose a Margin-based Token-level Objective (MTO) and a Margin-based Sentencelevel Objective (MSO) to maximize the Margin for preventing the LM from being overconfident. Experiments on WMT14 English-to-German, WMT19 Chinese-to-English, and WMT14 English-to-French translation tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, with 1.36, 1.50, and 0.63 BLEU improvements, respectively, compared to the Transformer baseline. The human evaluation further verifies that our approaches improve translation adequacy as well as fluency.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2021

Model-Assisted Inference for Covariate-Specific Treatment Effects with High-dimensional Data

Covariate-specific treatment effects (CSTEs) represent heterogeneous treatment effects across subpopulations defined by certain selected covariates. In this article, we consider marginal structural models where CSTEs are linearly represented using a set of basis functions of the selected covariates. We develop a new approach in high-dimensional settings to obtain not only doubly robust point estimators of CSTEs, but also model-assisted confidence intervals, which are valid when a propensity score model is correctly specified but an outcome regression model may be misspecified. With a linear outcome model and subpopulations defined by discrete covariates, both point estimators and confidence intervals are doubly robust for CSTEs. In contrast, confidence intervals from existing high-dimensional methods are valid only when both the propensity score and outcome models are correctly specified. We establish asymptotic properties of the proposed point estimators and the associated confidence intervals. We present simulation studies and empirical applications which demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method compared with competing ones.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2019

On rank estimators in increasing dimensions

The family of rank estimators, including Han's maximum rank correlation (Han, 1987) as a notable example, has been widely exploited in studying regression problems. For these estimators, although the linear index is introduced for alleviating the impact of dimensionality, the effect of large dimension on inference is rarely studied. This paper fills this gap via studying the statistical properties of a larger family of M-estimators, whose objective functions are formulated as U-processes and may be discontinuous in increasing dimension set-up where the number of parameters, $p_{n}$, in the model is allowed to increase with the sample size, $n$. First, we find that often in estimation, as $p_{n}/n\rightarrow 0$, $(p_{n}/n)^{1/2}$ rate of convergence is obtainable. Second, we establish Bahadur-type bounds and study the validity of normal approximation, which we find often requires a much stronger scaling requirement than $p_{n}^{2}/n\rightarrow 0.$ Third, we state conditions under which the numerical derivative estimator of asymptotic covariance matrix is consistent, and show that the step size in implementing the covariance estimator has to be adjusted with respect to $p_{n}$. All theoretical results are further backed up by simulation studies.

math.ST↗

arXiv2018

Identification and Estimation of Causal Effects with Outcomes Truncated by Death

It is common in medical studies that the outcome of interest is truncated by death, meaning that a subject has died before the outcome could be measured. In this case, restricted analysis among survivors may be subject to selection bias. Hence, it is of interest to estimate the survivor average causal effect, defined as the average causal effect among the subgroup consisting of subjects who would survive under either exposure. In this paper, we consider the identification and estimation problems of the survivor average causal effect. We propose to use a substitution variable in place of the latent membership in the always-survivor group. The identification conditions required for a substitution variable are conceptually similar to conditions for a conditional instrumental variable, and may apply to both randomized and observational studies. We show that the survivor average causal effect is identifiable with use of such a substitution variable, and propose novel model parameterizations for estimation of the survivor average causal effect under our identification assumptions. Our approaches are illustrated via simulation studies and a data analysis.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2016

Causal analysis of ordinal treatments and binary outcomes under truncation by death

It is common that in multiarm randomized trials, the outcome of interest is "truncated by death," meaning that it is only observed or well defined conditioning on an intermediate outcome. In this case, in addition to pairwise contrasts, the joint inference for all treatment arms is also of interest. Under a monotonicity assumption we present methods for both pairwise and joint causal analyses of ordinal treatments and binary outcomes in presence of truncation by death. We illustrate via examples the appropriateness of our assumptions in different scientific contexts.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2016

On estimating causal controlled direct and mediator effects for count outcomes without assuming sequential ignorability

Causal mediation analysis is an important statistical method in social and medical studies, as it can provide insights about why an intervention works and inform the development of future interventions. Currently, most causal mediation methods focus on mediation effects defined on a mean scale. However, in health-risk studies, such as alcohol or risky sex, outcomes are typically count data and heavily skewed. Thus, mediation effects in these setting would be natural on a rate ratio scale, such as in Poisson and negative binomial regression methods. Existing methods also mainly rely on the assumption of no unmeasured confounding between mediator and outcome. To allow for potential confounders between the mediator and outcome, we define the direct and mediator effects on a new scale and propose a multiplicative structural mean model for mediation analysis with count outcomes. The estimator is compared with both Poisson and negative binomial regression methods assuming sequential ignorability using a simulation study and a real world example about an alcohol-related intervention study. Mediation analyses using the new methods confirm the study hypothesis that the intervention decreases drinking by decreasing individual's normative perceptions of alcohol use.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2014

Semiparametric Inference of the Complier Average Causal Effect with Nonignorable Missing Outcomes

Noncompliance and missing data often occur in randomized trials, which complicate the inference of causal effects. When both noncompliance and missing data are present, previous papers proposed moment and maximum likelihood estimators for binary and normally distributed continuous outcomes under the latent ignorable missing data mechanism. However, the latent ignorable missing data mechanism may be violated in practice, because the missing data mechanism may depend directly on the missing outcome itself. Under noncompliance and an outcome-dependent nonignorable missing data mechanism, previous studies showed the identifiability of complier average causal effect for discrete outcomes. In this paper, we study the semiparametric identifiability and estimation of complier average causal effect in randomized clinical trials with both all-or-none noncompliance and the outcome-dependent nonignorable missing continuous outcomes, and propose a two-step maximum likelihood estimator in order to eliminate the infinite dimensional nuisance parameter. Our method does not need to specify a parametric form for the missing data mechanism. We also evaluate the finite sample property of our method via extensive simulation studies and sensitivity analysis, with an application to a double-blinded psychiatric clinical trial.

stat.ME↗