arXiv subjects

Xiaofeng Shao

Publications and source records attributed to Xiaofeng Shao.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Testing Serial Independence of Object-Valued Time Series

We propose a novel method for testing serial independence of object-valued time series in metric spaces, which is more general than Euclidean or Hilbert spaces. The proposed method is fully nonparametric, free of tuning parameters, and can capture all nonlinear pairwise dependence. The key concept used in this paper is the distance covariance in metric spaces, which is extended to auto distance covariance for object-valued time series. Furthermore, we propose a generalized spectral density function to account for pairwise dependence at all lags and construct a Cramer-von Mises type test statistic. New theoretical arguments are developed to establish the asymptotic behavior of the test statistic. A wild bootstrap is also introduced to obtain the critical values of the non-pivotal limiting null distribution. Extensive numerical simulations and two real data applications are conducted to illustrate the effectiveness and versatility of our proposed method.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Two-Sample and Change-Point Inference for Non-Euclidean Valued Time Series

Data objects taking value in a general metric space have become increasingly common in modern data analysis. In this paper, we study two important statistical inference problems, namely, two-sample testing and change-point detection, for such non-Euclidean data under temporal dependence. Typical examples of non-Euclidean valued time series include yearly mortality distributions, time-varying networks, and covariance matrix time series. To accommodate unknown temporal dependence, we advance the self-normalization (SN) technique (Shao, 2010) to the inference of non-Euclidean time series, which is substantially different from the existing SN-based inference for functional time series that reside in Hilbert space (Zhang et al., 2011). Theoretically, we propose new regularity conditions that could be easier to check than those in the recent literature, and derive the limiting distributions of the proposed test statistics under both null and local alternatives. For change-point detection problem, we also derive the consistency for the change-point location estimator, and combine our proposed change-point test with wild binary segmentation to perform multiple change-point estimation. Numerical simulations demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of our proposed tests compared with existing methods in the literature. Finally, we apply our tests to two-sample inference in mortality data and change-point detection in cryptocurrency data.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Slicing-free Inverse Regression in High-dimensional Sufficient Dimension Reduction

Sliced inverse regression (SIR, Li 1991) is a pioneering work and the most recognized method in sufficient dimension reduction. While promising progress has been made in theory and methods of high-dimensional SIR, two remaining challenges are still nagging high-dimensional multivariate applications. First, choosing the number of slices in SIR is a difficult problem, and it depends on the sample size, the distribution of variables, and other practical considerations. Second, the extension of SIR from univariate response to multivariate is not trivial. Targeting at the same dimension reduction subspace as SIR, we propose a new slicing-free method that provides a unified solution to sufficient dimension reduction with high-dimensional covariates and univariate or multivariate response. We achieve this by adopting the recently developed martingale difference divergence matrix (MDDM, Lee & Shao 2018) and penalized eigen-decomposition algorithms. To establish the consistency of our method with a high-dimensional predictor and a multivariate response, we develop a new concentration inequality for sample MDDM around its population counterpart using theories for U-statistics, which may be of independent interest. Simulations and real data analysis demonstrate the favorable finite sample performance of the proposed method.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Adaptive Testing for High-dimensional Data

In this article, we propose a class of $L_q$-norm based U-statistics for a family of global testing problems related to high-dimensional data. This includes testing of mean vector and its spatial sign, simultaneous testing of linear model coefficients, and testing of component-wise independence for high-dimensional observations, among others. Under the null hypothesis, we derive asymptotic normality and independence between $L_q$-norm based U-statistics for several $q$s under mild moment and cumulant conditions. A simple combination of two studentized $L_q$-based test statistics via their $p$-values is proposed and is shown to attain great power against alternatives of different sparsity. Our work is a substantial extension of He et al. (2021), which is mostly focused on mean and covariance testing, and we manage to provide a general treatment of asymptotic independence of $L_q$-norm based U-statistics for a wide class of kernels. To alleviate the computation burden, we introduce a variant of the proposed U-statistics by using the monotone indices in the summation, resulting in a U-statistic with asymmetric kernel. A dynamic programming method is introduced to reduce the computational cost from $O(n^{qr})$, which is required for the calculation of the full U-statistic, to $O(n^r)$ where $r$ is the order of the kernel. Numerical studies further corroborate the advantage of the proposed adaptive test as compared to some existing competitors.

math.ST↗

arXiv2023

On Variance Estimation of Random Forests with Infinite-Order U-statistics

Infinite-order U-statistics (IOUS) has been used extensively on subbagging ensemble learning algorithms such as random forests to quantify its uncertainty. While normality results of IOUS have been studied extensively, its variance estimation approaches and theoretical properties remain mostly unexplored. Existing approaches mainly utilize the leading term dominance property in the Hoeffding decomposition. However, such a view usually leads to biased estimation when the kernel size is large or the sample size is small. On the other hand, while several unbiased estimators exist in the literature, their relationships and theoretical properties, especially the ratio consistency, have never been studied. These limitations lead to unguaranteed performances of constructed confidence intervals. To bridge these gaps in the literature, we propose a new view of the Hoeffding decomposition for variance estimation that leads to an unbiased estimator. Instead of leading term dominance, our view utilizes the dominance of the peak region. Moreover, we establish the connection and equivalence of our estimator with several existing unbiased variance estimators. Theoretically, we are the first to establish the ratio consistency of such a variance estimator, which justifies the coverage rate of confidence intervals constructed from random forests. Numerically, we further propose a local smoothing procedure to improve the estimator's finite sample performance. Extensive simulation studies show that our estimators enjoy lower bias and archive targeted coverage rates.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

Testing the martingale difference hypothesis in high dimension

In this paper, we consider testing the martingale difference hypothesis for high-dimensional time series. Our test is built on the sum of squares of the element-wise max-norm of the proposed matrix-valued nonlinear dependence measure at different lags. To conduct the inference, we approximate the null distribution of our test statistic by Gaussian approximation and provide a simulation-based approach to generate critical values. The asymptotic behavior of the test statistic under the alternative is also studied. Our approach is nonparametric as the null hypothesis only assumes the time series concerned is martingale difference without specifying any parametric forms of its conditional moments. As an advantage of Gaussian approximation, our test is robust to the cross-series dependence of unknown magnitude. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first valid test for the martingale difference hypothesis that not only allows for large dimension but also captures nonlinear serial dependence. The practical usefulness of our test is illustrated via simulation and a real data analysis. The test is implemented in a user-friendly R-function.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2022

Segmenting Time Series via Self-Normalization

We propose a novel and unified framework for change-point estimation in multivariate time series. The proposed method is fully nonparametric, enjoys effortless tuning and is robust to temporal dependence. One salient and distinct feature of the proposed method is its versatility, where it allows change-point detection for a broad class of parameters (such as mean, variance, correlation and quantile) in a unified fashion. At the core of our method, we couple the self-normalization (SN) based tests with a novel nested local-window segmentation algorithm, which seems new in the growing literature of change-point analysis. Due to the presence of an inconsistent long-run variance estimator in the SN test, non-standard theoretical arguments are further developed to derive the consistency and convergence rate of the proposed SN-based change-point detection method. Extensive numerical experiments and relevant real data analysis are conducted to illustrate the effectiveness and broad applicability of our proposed method in comparison with state-of-the-art approaches in the literature.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Robust Inference for Change Points in High Dimension

This paper proposes a new test for a change point in the mean of high-dimensional data based on the spatial sign and self-normalization. The test is easy to implement with no tuning parameters, robust to heavy-tailedness and theoretically justified with both fixed-$n$ and sequential asymptotics under both null and alternatives, where $n$ is the sample size. We demonstrate that the fixed-$n$ asymptotics provide a better approximation to the finite sample distribution and thus should be preferred in both testing and testing-based estimation. To estimate the number and locations when multiple change-points are present, we propose to combine the p-value under the fixed-$n$ asymptotics with the seeded binary segmentation (SBS) algorithm. Through numerical experiments, we show that the spatial sign based procedures are robust with respect to the heavy-tailedness and strong coordinate-wise dependence, whereas their non-robust counterparts proposed in Wang et al. (2022) appear to under-perform. A real data example is also provided to illustrate the robustness and broad applicability of the proposed test and its corresponding estimation algorithm.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Inference for Change Points in High Dimensional Data via Self-Normalization

This article considers change point testing and estimation for a sequence of high-dimensional data. In the case of testing for a mean shift for high-dimensional independent data, we propose a new test which is based on $U$-statistic in Chen and Qin (2010) and utilizes the self-normalization principle [Shao (2010), Shao and Zhang (2010)]. Our test targets dense alternatives in the high-dimensional setting and involves no tuning parameters. To extend to change point testing for high-dimensional time series, we introduce a trimming parameter and formulate a self-normalized test statistic with trimming to accommodate the weak temporal dependence. On the theory front, we derive the limiting distributions of self-normalized test statistics under both the null and alternatives for both independent and dependent high-dimensional data. At the core of our asymptotic theory, we obtain weak convergence of a sequential U-statistic based process for high-dimensional independent data, and weak convergence of sequential trimmed U-statistic based processes for high-dimensional linear processes, both of which are of independent interests. Additionally, we illustrate how our tests can be used in combination with wild binary segmentation to estimate the number and location of multiple change points. Numerical simulations demonstrate the competitiveness of our proposed testing and estimation procedures in comparison with several existing methods in the literature.

math.ST↗

arXiv2021

Gaussian approximation and spatially dependent wild bootstrap for high-dimensional spatial data

In this paper, we establish a high-dimensional CLT for the sample mean of $p$-dimensional spatial data observed over irregularly spaced sampling sites in $\mathbb{R}^d$, allowing the dimension $p$ to be much larger than the sample size $n$. We adopt a stochastic sampling scheme that can generate irregularly spaced sampling sites in a flexible manner and include both pure increasing domain and mixed increasing domain frameworks. To facilitate statistical inference, we develop the spatially dependent wild bootstrap (SDWB) and justify its asymptotic validity in high dimensions by deriving error bounds that hold almost surely conditionally on the stochastic sampling sites. Our dependence conditions on the underlying random field cover a wide class of random fields such as Gaussian random fields and continuous autoregressive moving average random fields. Through numerical simulations and a real data analysis, we demonstrate the usefulness of our bootstrap-based inference in several applications, including joint confidence interval construction for high-dimensional spatial data and change-point detection for spatio-temporal data.

math.ST↗

arXiv2021

Adaptive Inference for Change Points in High-Dimensional Data

In this article, we propose a class of test statistics for a change point in the mean of high-dimensional independent data. Our test integrates the U-statistic based approach in a recent work by \cite{hdcp} and the $L_q$-norm based high-dimensional test in \cite{he2018}, and inherits several appealing features such as being tuning parameter free and asymptotic independence for test statistics corresponding to even $q$s. A simple combination of test statistics corresponding to several different $q$s leads to a test with adaptive power property, that is, it can be powerful against both sparse and dense alternatives. On the estimation front, we obtain the convergence rate of the maximizer of our test statistic standardized by sample size when there is one change-point in mean and $q=2$, and propose to combine our tests with a wild binary segmentation (WBS) algorithm to estimate the change-point number and locations when there are multiple change-points. Numerical comparisons using both simulated and real data demonstrate the advantage of our adaptive test and its corresponding estimation method.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Adaptive Change Point Monitoring for High-Dimensional Data

In this paper, we propose a class of monitoring statistics for a mean shift in a sequence of high-dimensional observations. Inspired by the recent U-statistic based retrospective tests developed by Wang et al.(2019) and Zhang et al.(2020), we advance the U-statistic based approach to the sequential monitoring problem by developing a new adaptive monitoring procedure that can detect both dense and sparse changes in real-time. Unlike Wang et al.(2019) and Zhang et al.(2020), where self-normalization was used in their tests, we instead introduce a class of estimators for $q$-norm of the covariance matrix and prove their ratio consistency. To facilitate fast computation, we further develop recursive algorithms to improve the computational efficiency of the monitoring procedure. The advantage of the proposed methodology is demonstrated via simulation studies and real data illustrations.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

Time Series Analysis of COVID-19 Infection Curve: A Change-Point Perspective

In this paper, we model the trajectory of the cumulative confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 (in log scale) via a piecewise linear trend model. The model naturally captures the phase transitions of the epidemic growth rate via change-points and further enjoys great interpretability due to its semiparametric nature. On the methodological front, we advance the nascent self-normalization (SN) technique (Shao, 2010) to testing and estimation of a single change-point in the linear trend of a nonstationary time series. We further combine the SN-based change-point test with the NOT algorithm (Baranowski et al., 2019) to achieve multiple change-point estimation. Using the proposed method, we analyze the trajectory of the cumulative COVID-19 cases and deaths for 30 major countries and discover interesting patterns with potentially relevant implications for effectiveness of the pandemic responses by different countries. Furthermore, based on the change-point detection algorithm and a flexible extrapolation function, we design a simple two-stage forecasting scheme for COVID-19 and demonstrate its promising performance in predicting cumulative deaths in the U.S.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2020

Interpoint Distance Based Two Sample Tests in High Dimension

In this paper, we study a class of two sample test statistics based on inter-point distances in the high dimensional and low sample size setting. Our test statistics include the well-known energy distance and maximum mean discrepancy with Gaussian and Laplacian kernels, and the critical values are obtained via permutations. We show that all these tests are inconsistent when the two high dimensional distributions correspond to the same marginal distributions but differ in other aspects of the distributions. The tests based on energy distance and maximum mean discrepancy are mainly targeting the differences between marginal means and variances, whereas the test based on $L^1$-distance can capture the difference in marginal distributions. Our theory sheds new light on the limitation of inter-point distance based tests, the impact of different distance metrics, and the behavior of permutation tests in high dimension. Some simulation results and a real data illustration are also presented to corroborate our theoretical findings.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

Dating the Break in High-dimensional Data

This paper is concerned with estimation and inference for the location of a change point in the mean of independent high-dimensional data. Our change point location estimator maximizes a new U-statistic based objective function, and its convergence rate and asymptotic distribution after suitable centering and normalization are obtained under mild assumptions. Our estimator turns out to have better efficiency as compared to the least squares based counterpart in the literature. Based on the asymptotic theory, we construct a confidence interval by plugging in consistent estimates of several quantities in the normalization. We also provide a bootstrap-based confidence interval and state its asymptotic validity under suitable conditions. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate favorable finite sample performance of the new change point location estimator as compared to its least squares based counterpart, and our bootstrap-based confidence intervals, as compared to several existing competitors. The asymptotic theory based on high-dimensional U-statistic is substantially different from those developed in the literature and is of independent interest.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2019

Distance-based and RKHS-based Dependence Metrics in High Dimension

In this paper, we study distance covariance, Hilbert-Schmidt covariance (aka Hilbert-Schmidt independence criterion [Gretton et al. (2008)]) and related independence tests under the high dimensional scenario. We show that the sample distance/Hilbert-Schmidt covariance between two random vectors can be approximated by the sum of squared componentwise sample cross-covariances up to an asymptotically constant factor, which indicates that the distance/Hilbert-Schmidt covariance based test can only capture linear dependence in high dimension. As a consequence, the distance correlation based t-test developed by Szekely and Rizzo (2013) for independence is shown to have trivial limiting power when the two random vectors are nonlinearly dependent but component-wisely uncorrelated. This new and surprising phenomenon, which seems to be discovered for the first time, is further confirmed in our simulation study. As a remedy, we propose tests based on an aggregation of marginal sample distance/Hilbert-Schmidt covariances and show their superior power behavior against their joint counterparts in simulations. We further extend the distance correlation based t-test to those based on Hilbert-Schmidt covariance and marginal distance/Hilbert-Schmidt covariance. A novel unified approach is developed to analyze the studentized sample distance/Hilbert-Schmidt covariance as well as the studentized sample marginal distance covariance under both null and alternative hypothesis. Our theoretical and simulation results shed light on the limitation of distance/Hilbert-Schmidt covariance when used jointly in the high dimensional setting and suggest the aggregation of marginal distance/Hilbert-Schmidt covariance as a useful alternative.

math.ST↗

arXiv2018

Bootstrap-Assisted Unit Root Testing With Piecewise Locally Stationary Errors

In unit root testing, a piecewise locally stationary process is adopted to accommodate nonstationary errors that can have both smooth and abrupt changes in second- or higher-order properties. Under this framework, the limiting null distributions of the conventional unit root test statistics are derived and shown to contain a number of unknown parameters. To circumvent the difficulty of direct consistent estimation, we propose to use the dependent wild bootstrap to approximate the non-pivotal limiting null distributions and provide a rigorous theoretical justification for bootstrap consistency. The proposed method is compared through finite sample simulations with the recolored wild bootstrap procedure, which was developed for errors that follow a heteroscedastic linear process. Further, a combination of autoregressive sieve recoloring with the dependent wild bootstrap is shown to perform well. The validity of the dependent wild bootstrap in a nonstationary setting is demonstrated for the first time, showing the possibility of extensions to other inference problems associated with locally stationary processes.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2017

Testing mutual independence in high dimension via distance covariance

In this paper, we introduce a ${\mathcal L}_2$ type test for testing mutual independence and banded dependence structure for high dimensional data. The test is constructed based on the pairwise distance covariance and it accounts for the non-linear and non-monotone dependences among the data, which cannot be fully captured by the existing tests based on either Pearson correlation or rank correlation. Our test can be conveniently implemented in practice as the limiting null distribution of the test statistic is shown to be standard normal. It exhibits excellent finite sample performance in our simulation studies even when the sample size is small albeit dimension is high, and is shown to successfully identify nonlinear dependence in empirical data analysis. On the theory side, asymptotic normality of our test statistic is shown under quite mild moment assumptions and with little restriction on the growth rate of the dimension as a function of sample size. As a demonstration of good power properties for our distance covariance based test, we further show that an infeasible version of our test statistic has the rate optimality in the class of Gaussian distribution with equal correlation.

stat.ME↗