arXiv subjects

Xiaofeng Xiao

Publications and source records attributed to Xiaofeng Xiao.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

LMT: A Bayesian Framework for Causal Discovery from Textual Alarm Records in Manufacturing Systems

Textual event records, such as alarm logs, have become an increasingly common data source in engineering and manufacturing systems. Beyond identifying correlations or recurring patterns, engineers are often interested in understanding which types of events causally trigger or influence other events during system operation. Textual event descriptions may contain semantic clues about such causal relationships, and recent large language models (LLMs) provide a promising tool for extracting these signals. However, relying solely on LLM-encoded textual information is insufficient for accurate causal discovery, since semantic patterns do not directly reveal causal mechanisms and may confuse causation with correlation or frequent sequential patterns. To address these challenges, we propose \textbf{LMT}, a Bayesian causal discovery framework for engineering event data that jointly leverages textual descriptions and timestamps. Specifically, LMT first uses LLMs to extract semantic causal signals from event descriptions and constructs a prior distribution over causal graphs among event types or event clusters. It then incorporates temporal evidence through a Poisson-process-based likelihood, allowing the LLM-informed prior to be refined by timestamp-based statistical evidence. By integrating the textual and temporal information, LMT produces a causal graph that is both interpretable and data-supported. Simulation studies show that the proposed framework is effective across different settings and is especially advantageous in small-sample alarm-event scenarios.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

CausalGDP: Causality-Guided Diffusion Policies for Reinforcement Learning

Reinforcement learning (RL) has achieved remarkable success in a wide range of sequential decision-making problems. Recent diffusion-based policies further improve RL by modeling complex, high-dimensional action distributions. However, existing diffusion policies primarily rely on statistical associations and fail to explicitly account for causal relationships among states, actions, and rewards, limiting their ability to identify which action components truly cause high returns. In this paper, we propose Causality-guided Diffusion Policy (CausalGDP), a unified framework that integrates causal reasoning into diffusion-based RL. CausalGDP first learns a base diffusion policy and an initial causal dynamical model from offline data, capturing causal dependencies among states, actions, and rewards. During real-time interaction, the causal information is continuously updated and incorporated as a guidance signal to steer the diffusion process toward actions that causally influence future states and rewards. By explicitly considering causality beyond association, CausalGDP focuses policy optimization on action components that genuinely drive performance improvements. Experimental results demonstrate that CausalGDP consistently achieves competitive or superior performance over state-of-the-art diffusion-based and offline RL methods, especially in complex, high-dimensional control tasks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Causality-informed Anomaly Detection in Partially Observable Sensor Networks: Moving beyond Correlations

Nowadays, as AI-driven manufacturing becomes increasingly popular, the volume of data streams requiring real-time monitoring continues to grow. However, due to limited resources, it is impractical to place sensors at every location to detect unexpected shifts. Therefore, it is necessary to develop an optimal sensor placement strategy that enables partial observability of the system while detecting anomalies as quickly as possible. Numerous approaches have been proposed to address this challenge; however, most existing methods consider only variable correlations and neglect a crucial factor: Causality. Moreover, although a few techniques incorporate causal analysis, they rely on interventions-artificially creating anomalies-to identify causal effects, which is impractical and might lead to catastrophic losses. In this paper, we introduce a causality-informed deep Q-network (Causal DQ) approach for partially observable sensor placement in anomaly detection. By integrating causal information at each stage of Q-network training, our method achieves faster convergence and tighter theoretical error bounds. Furthermore, the trained causal-informed Q-network significantly reduces the detection time for anomalies under various settings, demonstrating its effectiveness for sensor placement in large-scale, real-world data streams. Beyond the current implementation, our technique's fundamental insights can be applied to various reinforcement learning problems, opening up new possibilities for real-world causality-informed machine learning methods in engineering applications.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Explainable Federated Bayesian Causal Inference and Its Application in Advanced Manufacturing

Causal inference has recently gained notable attention across various fields like biology, healthcare, and environmental science, especially within explainable artificial intelligence (xAI) systems, for uncovering the causal relationships among multiple variables and outcomes. Yet, it has not been fully recognized and deployed in the manufacturing systems. In this paper, we introduce an explainable, scalable, and flexible federated Bayesian learning framework, \texttt{xFBCI}, designed to explore causality through treatment effect estimation in distributed manufacturing systems. By leveraging federated Bayesian learning, we efficiently estimate posterior of local parameters to derive the propensity score for each client without accessing local private data. These scores are then used to estimate the treatment effect using propensity score matching (PSM). Through simulations on various datasets and a real-world Electrohydrodynamic (EHD) printing data, we demonstrate that our approach outperforms standard Bayesian causal inference methods and several state-of-the-art federated learning benchmarks.

cs.LG↗