arXiv subjects

Xiaohu Zhang

Publications and source records attributed to Xiaohu Zhang.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Evaluation of non-pharmaceutical interventions and optimal strategies for containing the COVID-19 pandemic

Given multiple new COVID-19 variants are continuously emerging, non-pharmaceutical interventions are still primary control strategies to curb the further spread of coronavirus. However, implementing strict interventions over extended periods of time is inevitably hurting the economy. With an aim to solve this multi-objective decision-making problem, we investigate the underlying associations between policies, mobility patterns, and virus transmission. We further evaluate the relative performance of existing COVID-19 control measures and explore potential optimal strategies that can strike the right balance between public health and socio-economic recovery for individual states in the US. The results highlight the power of state of emergency declaration and wearing face masks and emphasize the necessity of pursuing tailor-made strategies for different states and phases of epidemiological transmission. Our framework enables policymakers to create more refined designs of COVID-19 strategies and can be extended to inform policy makers of any country about best practices in pandemic response.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2022

Improving short-term bike sharing demand forecast through an irregular convolutional neural network

As an important task for the management of bike sharing systems, accurate forecast of travel demand could facilitate dispatch and relocation of bicycles to improve user satisfaction. In recent years, many deep learning algorithms have been introduced to improve bicycle usage forecast. A typical practice is to integrate convolutional (CNN) and recurrent neural network (RNN) to capture spatial-temporal dependency in historical travel demand. For typical CNN, the convolution operation is conducted through a kernel that moves across a "matrix-format" city to extract features over spatially adjacent urban areas. This practice assumes that areas close to each other could provide useful information that improves prediction accuracy. However, bicycle usage in neighboring areas might not always be similar, given spatial variations in built environment characteristics and travel behavior that affect cycling activities. Yet, areas that are far apart can be relatively more similar in temporal usage patterns. To utilize the hidden linkage among these distant urban areas, the study proposes an irregular convolutional Long-Short Term Memory model (IrConv+LSTM) to improve short-term bike sharing demand forecast. The model modifies traditional CNN with irregular convolutional architecture to extract dependency among "semantic neighbors". The proposed model is evaluated with a set of benchmark models in five study sites, which include one dockless bike sharing system in Singapore, and four station-based systems in Chicago, Washington, D.C., New York, and London. We find that IrConv+LSTM outperforms other benchmark models in the five cities. The model also achieves superior performance in areas with varying levels of bicycle usage and during peak periods. The findings suggest that "thinking beyond spatial neighbors" can further improve short-term travel demand prediction of urban bike sharing systems.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2022

Defining Urban Boundaries by Characteristic Scales

Defining an objective boundary for a city is a difficult problem, which remains to be solved by an effective method. Recent years, new methods for identifying urban boundary have been developed by means of spatial search techniques (e.g. CCA). However, the new algorithms are involved with another problem, that is, how to determine the characteristic radius of spatial search. This paper proposes new approaches to looking for the most advisable spatial searching radius for determining urban boundary. We found that the relationships between the spatial searching radius and the corresponding number of clusters take on an exponential function. In the exponential model, the scale parameter just represents the characteristic length that we can use to define the most objective urban boundary objectively. Two sets of China's cities are employed to test this method, and the results lend support to the judgment that the characteristic parameter can well serve for the spatial searching radius. The research may be revealing for making urban spatial analysis in methodology and implementing identification of urban boundaries in practice.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Estimating the potential for shared autonomous scooters

Recent technological developments have shown significant potential for transforming urban mobility. Considering first- and last-mile travel and short trips, the rapid adoption of dockless bike-share systems showed the possibility of disruptive change, while simultaneously presenting new challenges, such as fleet management or the use of public spaces. In this paper, we evaluate the operational characteristics of a new class of shared vehicles that are being actively developed in the industry: scooters with self-repositioning capabilities. We do this by adapting the methodology of shareability networks to a large-scale dataset of dockless bike-share usage, giving us estimates of ideal fleet size under varying assumptions of fleet operations. We show that the availability of self-repositioning capabilities can help achieve up to 10 times higher utilization of vehicles than possible in current bike-share systems. We show that actual benefits will highly depend on the availability of dedicated infrastructure, a key issue for scooter and bicycle use. Based on our results, we envision that technological advances can present an opportunity to rethink urban infrastructures and how transportation can be effectively organized in cities.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2020

Modeling Event Propagation via Graph Biased Temporal Point Process

Temporal point process is widely used for sequential data modeling. In this paper, we focus on the problem of modeling sequential event propagation in graph, such as retweeting by social network users, news transmitting between websites, etc. Given a collection of event propagation sequences, conventional point process model consider only the event history, i.e. embed event history into a vector, not the latent graph structure. We propose a Graph Biased Temporal Point Process (GBTPP) leveraging the structural information from graph representation learning, where the direct influence between nodes and indirect influence from event history is modeled respectively. Moreover, the learned node embedding vector is also integrated into the embedded event history as side information. Experiments on a synthetic dataset and two real-world datasets show the efficacy of our model compared to conventional methods and state-of-the-art.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

Simulating and Evaluating Rebalancing Strategies for Dockless Bike-Sharing Systems

Following the growth of dock-based bike sharing systems as an eco-friendly solution for transportation in urban areas, Dockless systems are revolutionizing the market for the increased flexibility they offer to users. Bike redistribution is a common approach to improve service, and there exists extensive research considering static and dynamic rebalancing strategies for dock-based systems. We approach the dockless problem by defining abstract stations from trip start and end location frequency. This paper offers an optimizing Mixed Integer Program framework to model the effects of various bike repositioning strategies for dockless systems. We process 30 days worth of Singapore-based dockless bike data from September 2017 to extract trips. Pairing our mixed integer program with a demand model built from the processed data, we unveil trends between fleet size, lost demand, and magnitude of repositioning proper to the repositioning strategy employed. We also show that increasing repositioning potential does not always improve service performance.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2020

Addressing the "minimum parking" problem for on-demand mobility

Parking infrastructure is pervasive and occupies large swaths of land in cities. However, on-demand (OD) mobility -- such as commercial services Uber, Grab or Didi -- has started reducing parking needs in urban areas around the world. This trend is expected to grow significantly with the advent of autonomous driving, which might render on-demand mobility predominant. Recent studies have started looking at expected parking reductions with on-demand mobility, but a systematic framework is still lacking. In this paper, we apply a data-driven methodology based on shareability networks to address what we call the "minimum parking" problem: what is the minimum parking infrastructure needed in a city for given on-demand mobility needs? While solving the problem, we also identify a critical tradeoff between two public policy goals: less parking means increased vehicle travel from deadheading between trips. By applying our methodology to the city of Singapore we discover that parking infrastructure reduction of up to 86% is possible, but at the expense of a 24% increase in traffic measured as vehicle kilometers travelled (VKT). However, a more modest 57% reduction in parking is achievable with only a 1.3% increase in VKT. We find that the tradeoff between parking and traffic obeys an inverse exponential law which is invariant with the size of the vehicle fleet, leading to a simple methodology to estimate aggregate parking demand in a city. Finally, we analyze parking requirements due to passenger pick-ups and show that increasing convenience produces a substantial increase in parking for passenger pickup/dropoff. The above mathematical findings can inform policy-makers, mobility operators, and society at large on the tradeoffs required in the transition towards pervasive on-demand mobility.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

AI-Based Autonomous Line Flow Control via Topology Adjustment for Maximizing Time-Series ATCs

This paper presents a novel AI-based approach for maximizing time-series available transfer capabilities (ATCs) via autonomous topology control considering various practical constraints and uncertainties. Several AI techniques including supervised learning and deep reinforcement learning (DRL) are adopted and improved to train effective AI agents for achieving the desired performance. First, imitation learning (IL) is used to provide a good initial policy for the AI agent. Then, the agent is trained by DRL algorithms with a novel guided exploration technique, which significantly improves the training efficiency. Finally, an Early Warning (EW) mechanism is designed to help the agent find good topology control strategies for long testing periods, which helps the agent to determine action timing using power system domain knowledge; thus, effectively increases the system error-tolerance and robustness. Effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated in the "2019 Learn to Run a Power Network (L2RPN)" global competition, where the developed AI agents can continuously and safely control a power grid to maximize ATCs without operator's intervention for up to 1-month's operation data and eventually won the first place in both development and final phases of the competition. The winning agent has been open-sourced on GitHub.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2019

Community Microgrid Planning Considering Building Thermal Dynamics

In this paper, the building thermal dynamic characteristics are introduced in the community microgrid (MG) planning model. The proposed planning model is formulated as a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) which seeks to determine the optimal deployment strategy for various distributed energy resources (DER). The objective is to minimize the annualized cost of community MG, including investment cost in DER, operation cost for dispatchable fuel-generators (DFG), energy storage system (ESS) degradation cost, energy purchasing and peak demand charge at PCC, customer discomfort cost due to the room temperature deviation and load curtailment cost. Given the slow thermal dynamic characteristics of buildings, the heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) system in the proposed model is treated as a demand side management (DSM) component, whose dispatch commands are provided by the central MG controller. Numerical results based on a community MG comprising of 20 residential buildings demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed planning model and the benefits of introducing the building thermal dynamic model.

math.OC↗

arXiv2019

A Deep Reinforcement Learning Based Approach for Optimal Active Power Dispatch

The stochastic and dynamic nature of renewable energy sources and power electronic devices are creating unique challenges for modern power systems. One such challenge is that the conventional mathematical systems models-based optimal active power dispatch (OAPD) method is limited in its ability to handle uncertainties caused by renewables and other system contingencies. In this paper, a deep reinforcement learning-based (DRL) method is presented to provide a near-optimal solution to the OAPD problem without system modeling. The DRL agent undergoes offline training, based on which, it is able to obtain the OAPD points under unseen scenarios, e.g., different load patterns. The DRL-based OAPD method is tested on the IEEE 14-bus system, thereby validating its feasibility to solve the OAPD problem. Its utility is further confirmed in that it can be leveraged as a key component for solving future model-free AC-OPF problems.

math.OC↗

arXiv2019

Autonomous Voltage Control for Grid Operation Using Deep Reinforcement Learning

Modern power grids are experiencing grand challenges caused by the stochastic and dynamic nature of growing renewable energy and demand response. Traditional theoretical assumptions and operational rules may be violated, which are difficult to be adapted by existing control systems due to the lack of computational power and accurate grid models for use in real time, leading to growing concerns in the secure and economic operation of the power grid. Existing operational control actions are typically determined offline, which are less optimized. This paper presents a novel paradigm, Grid Mind, for autonomous grid operational controls using deep reinforcement learning. The proposed AI agent for voltage control can learn its control policy through interactions with massive offline simulations, and adapts its behavior to new changes including not only load/generation variations but also topological changes. A properly trained agent is tested on the IEEE 14-bus system with tens of thousands of scenarios, and promising performance is demonstrated in applying autonomous voltage controls for secure grid operation.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2019

Adaptive Online Learning with Momentum for Contingency-based Voltage Stability Assessment

Voltage stability refers to the ability of a power system to maintain acceptable voltages among all buses under normal operating conditions and after a disturbance. In this paper, a measurement-based voltage stability assessment (VSA) framework using online deep learning is developed. Since the topology changes induced by transmission contingencies may significantly reduce the voltage stability margin, different network topologies under different operating conditions are involved in our training dataset. To achieve high accuracy in the training process, a gradient-based adaptive learning algorithms is adopted. Numerical results based on the NETS-NYPS 68-bus system demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed VSA approach. Moreover, with the proximal function modified adaptively, the adaptive algorithm with momentum outperforms traditional nonadaptive algorithms whose learning rate is constant.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2018

Optimal Energy Management for Commercial Buildings Considering Comprehensive Comfort Levels in a Retail Electricity Market

Demand response has been implemented by distribution system operators to reduce peak demand and mitigate contingency issues on distribution lines and substations. Specifically, the campus based commercial buildings make the major contributions to peak demand in a distribution system. Note that prior works neglect the consumers comfort level in performing demand response, which limits their applications as the incentives are not worth as compared to the loss in comfort levels for most time. Thus, a framework to comprehensively consider both operating costs and comfort levels is necessary. Moreover, distributed energy resources are widely deployed in commercial buildings such as roof top solar panels, plug in electric vehicles, and energy storage units, which bring various uncertainties to the distribution systems, i.e., output of renewable; electricity prices; arrival and departure of plug-in electric vehicles; business hour demand response signals and flexible energy demand. In this paper, we propose an optimal demand response framework to enable local control of demand-side appliances that are usually too small to participate in a retail electricity market. Several typical small demand side appliances, i.e., heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems, electric water heaters and plug-in electric vehicles, are considered in our proposed model. Their operations are coordinated by a central controller, whose objective is to minimize the total cost and maximize the customers comfort levels for multiple commercial buildings. A scenario-based stochastic programming is leveraged to handle the aforementioned uncertainties. Numerical results based on the practical data demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework. In addition, the trade off between the operation costs of commercial buildings and customers comfort levels is illustrated.

math.OC↗

arXiv2018

Networked Microgrids for Improving Economics and Resiliency

In this paper, we propose networked microgrids to facilitate the integration of variable renewable generation and improve the economics and resiliency of electricity supply in microgrids. A new concept, probability of successful islanding (PSI) is used to quantify the islanding capability of a microgrid considering the uncertainty of renewable energy resources and load as well as exchanged power at PCC. With the goal of minimizing the total operating cost while preserving user specified PSI, a chance-constrained optimization problem is formulated for the optimal scheduling of both individual microgrid and networked microgrids. Numerical simulation results show significant saving in electricity cost can be achieved by proposed networked microgrids without compromising the resiliency. The impact of correlation coefficients among the renewable generation and load of adjacent microgrids has been studied as well.

math.OC↗

arXiv2018

Optimal Allocation of Series FACTS Devices Under High Penetration of Wind Power Within a Market Environment

Series FACTS devices are one of the key enablers for very high penetration of renewables due to their capabilities in continuously controlling power flows on transmission lines. This paper proposes a bilevel optimization model to optimally locate variable series reactor (VSR) and phase shifting transformer (PST) in the transmission network considering high penetration of wind power. The upper level problem seeks to minimize the \textcolor{black}{investment cost} on series FACTS, the cost of wind power curtailment and possible load shedding. The lower level problems capture the market clearing under different operating scenarios. Due to the poor scalability of $Bθ$ formulation, the \textsl{shift factor} structure of FACTS allocation is derived. A customized reformulation and decomposition algorithm is designed and implemented to solve the proposed bilevel model with binary variables in both upper and lower levels. Detailed numerical results based on 118-bus system demonstrate the efficient performance of the proposed planning model and the important role of series FACTS for facilitating the integration of wind power.

math.OC↗

arXiv2018

Sensitivity Based Thevenin Index for Voltage Stability Assessment Considering N-1 Contingency

This paper proposes an approach to address the voltage stability assessment (VSA) considering N-1 contingency. The approach leverages the sensitivity based Thevenin index (STI) which involves evaluating the Jacobian matrix at current operating condition. Since the N-1 contingency case is hypothetical, there is no information regarding the operating condition after a foreseen contingency. The proposed approach first estimates the post-contingency operating point as well as possible PV-PQ transitions based on the current operating point. Then the STI for each contingency can be predicted using the estimated operating condition. Numerical results based on IEEE 14-bus system demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed approach in predicting the voltage stability margin under contingency. Moreover, the on-line implementation of the proposed approach is promising since it only involves solving several linear equations.

math.OC↗

arXiv2018

A Robust Power Grid Defense Model Considering Load Demand and Wind Generation Uncertainties

It is a major task to develop effective strategies for defending the power system against deliberate attacks. It is critical to comprehensively consider the human-related and environmental risks and uncertainties, which is missing in existing literature. This paper considers the load demand uncertainties and wind generation uncertainties in addition to the interactive attacker/defender behaviors. Specifically, a defender-attacker-nature-operator model is proposed, which incorporates the attack/defense interaction, the corrective re-dispatch of the operator, the coordination between the attack strategy and the stochastic nature of load demands and wind generations. The Column-and-Constraint Generation (C&CG) algorithm is adopted for solving the proposed model by decomposing the proposed model into a master problem and a sub-problem. Simulations are performed using MATLAB and CPLEX on a modified IEEE RTS79 system. The simulation results verify the validity of the proposed model.

math.OC↗

arXiv2018

Optimal Allocation of Series FACTS Devices in Large Scale Systems

Series FACTS devices, such as the variable series reactor (VSR), have the ability to continuously regulate the transmission line reactance so as to control power flow. This paper presents a new approach to optimally locating such devices in the transmission network considering multiple operating states and contingencies. To investigate optimal investment, a single target year planning with three different load patterns is considered. The transmission contingencies may occur under any of the three load conditions and the coupling constraints between base case and contingencies are included. A reformulation technique transforms the original mixed integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) model into mixed integer linear programing (MILP) model. To further relieve the computational burden and enable the planning model to be directly applied to practical large scale systems, a two phase decomposition algorithm is introduced. Detailed numerical simulation results on IEEE 118-bus system and the Polish 2383-bus system illustrate the efficient performance of the proposed algorithm.

math.OC↗