arXiv subjects

Xiaohui Zhong

Publications and source records attributed to Xiaohui Zhong.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Diffusion Disambiguation Models for Partial Label Learning

Learning from ambiguous labels is a long-standing problem in practical machine learning applications. The purpose of \emph{partial label learning} (PLL) is to identify the ground-truth label from a set of candidate labels associated with a given instance. Inspired by the remarkable performance of diffusion models in various generation tasks, this paper explores their potential to denoise ambiguous labels through the reverse denoising process. Therefore, this paper reformulates the label disambiguation problem from the perspective of generative models, where labels are generated by iteratively refining initial random guesses. This perspective enables the diffusion model to learn how label information is generated stochastically. By modeling the generation uncertainty, we can use the maximum likelihood estimate of the label for classification inference. However, such ambiguous labels lead to a mismatch between instance and label, which reduces the quality of generated data. To address this issue, this paper proposes a \emph{diffusion disambiguation model for PLL} (DDMP), which first uses the potential complementary information between instances and labels to construct pseudo-clean labels for initial diffusion training. Furthermore, a transition-aware matrix is introduced to estimate the potential ground-truth labels, which are dynamically updated during the diffusion generation. During training, the ground-truth label is progressively refined, improving the classifier. Experiments show the advantage of the DDMP and its suitability for PLL.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

HybridOM: Hybrid Physics-Based and Data-Driven Global Ocean Modeling with Efficient Spatial Downscaling

Global ocean modeling is vital for climate science but struggles to balance computational efficiency with accuracy. Traditional numerical solvers are accurate but computationally expensive, while pure deep learning approaches, though fast, often lack physical consistency and long-term stability. To address this, we introduce HybridOM, a framework integrating a lightweight, differentiable numerical solver as a skeleton to enforce physical laws, with a neural network as the flesh to correct subgrid-scale dynamics. To enable efficient high-resolution modeling, we further introduce a physics-informed regional downscaling mechanism based on flux gating. This design achieves the inference efficiency of AI-based methods while preserving the accuracy and robustness of physical models. Extensive experiments on the GLORYS12V1 and OceanBench dataset validate HybridOM's performance in two distinct regimes: long-term subseasonal-to-seasonal simulation and short-term operational forecasting coupled with the FuXi-2.0 weather model. Results demonstrate that HybridOM achieves state-of-the-art accuracy while strictly maintaining physical consistency, offering a robust solution for next-generation ocean digital twins. Our source code is available at https://github.com/ChiyodaMomo01/HybridOM.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

FuXi-Nowcast: Environment-conditioned deep learning for severe convection nowcasting

Severe convection produces localized hazards that often require warnings before radar echoes fully reveal storm development. Convective initiation and the maintenance of intense convection remain challenging for radar-only nowcasting because pre-convective signals may be absent from recent radar observations and strong echoes often decay rapidly in forecasts. Here we present FuXi-Nowcast, an environment-conditioned deep learning system that combines high-resolution observations with three-dimensional atmospheric forecasts to predict composite reflectivity, precipitation, wind gusts, and surface variables up to 12 h ahead. In April--July 2024 evaluations over East China, FuXi-Nowcast outperforms operational numerical, persistence and extrapolation baselines for reflectivity and precipitation. Case studies, diagnostics, and ablation experiments suggest that atmospheric moisture information and explicit preservation of strong convective signals contribute to forecasts of convective initiation and maintenance. These results show that environmental conditioning can mitigate important failure modes of radar-only nowcasting for high-impact convective weather.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

QuantWeather: Quantile-Aware Probabilistic Forecasting for Subseasonal Precipitation

Subseasonal precipitation forecasting is inherently uncertain due to chaotic atmospheric dynamics, making reliable uncertainty estimation essential for real-world applications. Existing approaches typically represent uncertainty through ensemble forecasts rather than directly modeling predictive distributions. However, due to systematic model biases, raw ensemble outputs are often not well calibrated and cannot be directly interpreted as reliable uncertainty estimates. As a result, operational systems rely on post-hoc calibration based on reforecast datasets, which are computationally expensive to generate and maintain. To address these limitations, we propose QuantWeather, an end-to-end probabilistic forecasting framework with a dual-head design. The probabilistic and deterministic heads are supervised with separate objectives and optimized jointly. The framework further supports stochastic sampling, enabling probabilistic outputs even with a single stochastic forward pass and allowing optional multi-sample aggregation. Extensive experiments show that QuantWeather demonstrates superior probabilistic forecasting skill while substantially reducing inference-time computational and storage costs.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2026

FuXi-TC: A generative framework integrating deep learning and physics-based models for improved tropical cyclone forecasts

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most devastating natural hazards, yet their intensity remains notoriously difficult to predict. NWP models are constrained by both computational demands and intrinsic predictability, while state-of-the-art deep learning-based weather forecasting models tend to underestimate TC intensity due to biases in reanalysis-based training data. Here, we present FuXi-TC, a diffusion-based generative forecasting framework that combines the track prediction strength of the FuXi model with the intensity representation of NWP simulations. By conditioning a diffusion model on the large-scale forecasts of the global FuXi model, FuXi-TC effectively downscales and delivers higher-accuracy forecasts of fine-grained variable fields such as wind speed and precipitation. In evaluations across the 2024 Western North Pacific, our approach matches the TC intensity forecast skill of the operational ECMWF deterministic model while delivering superior precipitation forecasts. Meanwhile this is achieved with significantly higher inference speeds and lower computational costs. Moreover, FuXi-TC demonstrates robust zero-shot generalization directly when applied to North Atlantic hurricanes without any fine-tuning. When applied to the FuXi ensemble model, this framework effectively yields well-dispersed probabilistic forecasts and refines the ensemble intensity predictions.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

Data-driven ensemble prediction of the global ocean

Data-driven models have advanced deterministic ocean forecasting, but extending machine learning to probabilistic global ocean prediction remains an open challenge. Here we introduce FuXi-ONS, the first machine-learning ensemble forecasting system for the global ocean, providing 5-day forecasts on a global 1° grid up to 365 days for sea-surface temperature, sea-surface height, subsurface temperature, salinity and ocean currents. Rather than relying on repeated integration of computationally expensive numerical models, FuXi-ONS learns physically structured perturbations and incorporates an atmospheric encoding module to stabilize long-range forecasts. Evaluated against GLORYS12 reanalysis, FuXi-ONS improves both ensemble-mean skill and probabilistic forecast quality relative to deterministic and noise-perturbed baselines, and shows competitive performance against established seasonal forecast references for SST and Niño3.4 variability, while running orders of magnitude faster than conventional ensemble systems. These results provide a strong example of machine learning advancing a core problem in ocean science, and establish a practical path toward efficient probabilistic ocean forecasting and climate risk assessment.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

3DTCR: A Physics-Based Generative Framework for Vortex-Following 3D Reconstruction to Improve Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting

Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasting remains challenging as current numerical and AI-based weather models fail to satisfactorily represent extreme TC structure and intensity. Although intensity time-series forecasting has achieved significant advances, it outputs intensity sequences rather than the three-dimensional inner-core fine-scale structure and physical mechanisms governing TC evolution. High-resolution numerical simulations can capture these features but remain computationally expensive and inefficient for large-scale operational applications. Here we present 3DTCR, a physics-based generative framework combining physical constraints with generative AI efficiency for 3D TC structure reconstruction. Trained on a six-year, 3-km-resolution moving-domain WRF dataset, 3DTCR enables region-adaptive vortex-following reconstruction using conditional Flow Matching(CFM), optimized via latent domain adaptation and two-stage transfer learning. The framework mitigates limitations imposed by low-resolution targets and over-smoothed forecasts, improving the representation of TC inner-core structure and intensity while maintaining track stability. Results demonstrate that 3DTCR outperforms the ECMWF high-resolution forecasting system (ECMWF-HRES) in TC intensity prediction at nearly all lead times up to 5 days and reduces the RMSE of maximum WS10M by 36.5% relative to its FuXi inputs. These findings highlight 3DTCR as a physics-based generative framework that efficiently resolves fine-scale structures at lower computational cost, which may offer a promising avenue for improving TC intensity forecasting.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

FuXiWeather2: Learning accurate atmospheric state estimation for operational global weather forecasting

Numerical weather prediction has long been constrained by the computational bottlenecks inherent in data assimilation and numerical modeling. While machine learning has accelerated forecasting, existing models largely serve as "emulators of reanalysis products," thereby retaining their systematic biases and operational latencies. Here, we present FuXiWeather2, a unified end-to-end neural framework for assimilation and forecasting. We align training objectives directly with a combination of real-world observations and reanalysis data, enabling the framework to effectively rectify inherent errors within reanalysis products. To address the distribution shift between NWP-derived background inputs during training and self-generated backgrounds during deployment, we introduce a recursive unrolling training method to enhance the precision and stability of analysis generation. Furthermore, our model is trained on a hybrid dataset of raw and simulated observations to mitigate the impact of observational distribution inconsistency. FuXiWeather2 generates high-resolution ($0.25^{\circ}$) global analysis fields and 10-day forecasts within minutes. The analysis fields surpass the NCEP-GFS across most variables and demonstrate superior accuracy over both ERA5 and the ECMWF-HRES system in lower-tropospheric and surface variables. These high-quality analysis fields drive deterministic forecasts that exceed the skill of the HRES system in 91\% of evaluated metrics. Additionally, its outstanding performance in typhoon track prediction underscores its practical value for rapid response to extreme weather events. The FuXiWeather2 analysis dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18872728.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

CLIP-driven Zero-shot Learning with Ambiguous Labels

Zero-shot learning (ZSL) aims to recognize unseen classes by leveraging semantic information from seen classes, but most existing methods assume accurate class labels for training instances. However, in real-world scenarios, noise and ambiguous labels can significantly reduce the performance of ZSL. To address this, we propose a new CLIP-driven partial label zero-shot learning (CLIP-PZSL) framework to handle label ambiguity. First, we use CLIP to extract instance and label features. Then, a semantic mining block fuses these features to extract discriminative label embeddings. We also introduce a partial zero-shot loss, which assigns weights to candidate labels based on their relevance to the instance and aligns instance and label embeddings to minimize semantic mismatch. As the training goes on, the ground-truth labels are progressively identified, and the refined labels and label embeddings in turn help improve the semantic alignment of instance and label features. Comprehensive experiments on several datasets demonstrate the advantage of CLIP-PZSL.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

AviaSafe: A Physics-Informed Data-Driven Model for Aviation Safety-Critical Cloud Forecasts

Current AI weather forecasting models predict conventional atmospheric variables but cannot distinguish between cloud microphysical species critical for aviation safety. We introduce AviaSafe, a hierarchical, physics-informed neural forecaster that produces global, six-hourly predictions of these four hydrometeor species for lead times up to 7 days. Our approach addresses the unique challenges of cloud prediction: extreme sparsity, discontinuous distributions, and complex microphysical interactions between species. We integrate the Icing Condition (IC) index from aviation meteorology as a physics-based constraint that identifies regions where supercooled water fuels explosive ice crystal growth. The model employs a hierarchical architecture that first predicts cloud spatial distribution through masked attention, then quantifies species concentrations within identified regions. Training on ERA5 reanalysis data, our model achieves lower RMSE for cloud species compared to baseline and outperforms operational numerical models on certain key variables at 7-day lead times. The ability to forecast individual cloud species enables new applications in aviation route optimization where distinguishing between ice and liquid water determines engine icing risk.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

A unified multimodal understanding and generation model for cross-disciplinary scientific research

Scientific discovery increasingly relies on integrating heterogeneous, high-dimensional data across disciplines nowadays. While AI models have achieved notable success across various scientific domains, they typically remain domain-specific or lack the capability of simultaneously understanding and generating multimodal scientific data, particularly for high-dimensional data. Yet, many pressing global challenges and scientific problems are inherently cross-disciplinary and require coordinated progress across multiple fields. Here, we present FuXi-Uni, a native unified multimodal model for scientific understanding and high-fidelity generation across scientific domains within a single architecture. Specifically, FuXi-Uni aligns cross-disciplinary scientific tokens within natural language tokens and employs science decoder to reconstruct scientific tokens, thereby supporting both natural language conversation and scientific numerical prediction. Empirically, we validate FuXi-Uni in Earth science and Biomedicine. In Earth system modeling, the model supports global weather forecasting, tropical cyclone (TC) forecast editing, and spatial downscaling driven by only language instructions. FuXi-Uni generates 10-day global forecasts at 0.25° resolution that outperform the SOTA physical forecasting system. It shows superior performance for both TC track and intensity prediction relative to the SOTA physical model, and generates high-resolution regional weather fields that surpass standard interpolation baselines. Regarding biomedicine, FuXi-Uni outperforms leading multimodal large language models on multiple biomedical visual question answering benchmarks. By unifying heterogeneous scientific modalities within a native shared latent space while maintaining strong domain-specific performance, FuXi-Uni provides a step forward more general-purpose, multimodal scientific models.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Revealing the Potential of Learnable Perturbation Ensemble Forecast Model for Tropical Cyclone Prediction

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are highly destructive and inherently uncertain weather systems. Ensemble forecasting helps quantify these uncertainties, yet traditional systems are constrained by high computational costs and limited capability to fully represent atmospheric nonlinearity. FuXi-ENS introduces a learnable perturbation scheme for ensemble generation, representing a novel AI-based forecasting paradigm. Here, we systematically compare FuXi-ENS with ECMWF-ENS using all 90 global TCs in 2018, examining their performance in TC-related physical variables, track and intensity forecasts, and the associated dynamical and thermodynamical fields. FuXi-ENS demonstrates clear advantages in predicting TC-related physical variables, and achieves more accurate track forecasts with reduced ensemble spread, though it still underestimates intensity relative to observations. Further dynamical and thermodynamical analyses reveal that FuXi-ENS better captures large-scale circulation, with moisture turbulent energy more tightly concentrated around the TC warm core, whereas ECMWF-ENS exhibits a more dispersed distribution. These findings highlight the potential of learnable perturbations to improve TC forecasting skill and provide valuable insights for advancing AI-based ensemble prediction of extreme weather events that have significant societal impacts.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

FuXi-Ocean: A Global Ocean Forecasting System with Sub-Daily Resolution

Accurate, high-resolution ocean forecasting is crucial for maritime operations and environmental monitoring. While traditional numerical models are capable of producing sub-daily, eddy-resolving forecasts, they are computationally intensive and face challenges in maintaining accuracy at fine spatial and temporal scales. In contrast, recent data-driven approaches offer improved computational efficiency and emerging potential, yet typically operate at daily resolution and struggle with sub-daily predictions due to error accumulation over time. We introduce FuXi-Ocean, the first data-driven global ocean forecasting model achieving six-hourly predictions at eddy-resolving 1/12° spatial resolution, reaching depths of up to 1500 meters. The model architecture integrates a context-aware feature extraction module with a predictive network employing stacked attention blocks. The core innovation is the Mixture-of-Time (MoT) module, which adaptively integrates predictions from multiple temporal contexts by learning variable-specific reliability , mitigating cumulative errors in sequential forecasting. Through comprehensive experimental evaluation, FuXi-Ocean demonstrates superior skill in predicting key variables, including temperature, salinity, and currents, across multiple depths.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Generative artificial intelligence improves projections of climate extremes

Climate change is amplifying extreme events, posing escalating risks to biodiversity, human health, and food security. GCMs are essential for projecting future climate, yet their coarse resolution and high computational costs constrain their ability to represent extremes. Here, we introduce FuXi-CMIPAlign, a generative deep learning framework for downscaling CMIP outputs. The model integrates Flow Matching for generative modeling with domain adaptation via MMD loss to align feature distributions between training data and inference data, thereby mitigating input discrepancies and improving accuracy, stability, and generalization across emission scenarios. FuXi-CMIPAlign performs spatial, temporal, and multivariate downscaling, enabling more realistic simulation of compound extremes such as TCs.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

A data-driven global ocean forecasting model with sub-daily and eddy-resolving resolution

High-fidelity ocean forecasting at high spatial and temporal resolution is essential for capturing fine-scale dynamical features, with profound implications for hazard prediction, maritime navigation, and sustainable ocean management. While conventional numerical models can generate sub-daily, eddy-resolving forecasts, they demand substantial computational resources and often struggle to maintain predictive skill at such fine scales. Data-driven models offer a promising alternative with significantly higher computational efficiency; however, most are constrained to daily outputs and show a rapid decay in accuracy when extended to sub-daily timescales. Here, we introduce TianHai, the first-of-its-kind global data-driven 6-hour forecasting model, which delivers predictions at 1/12° eddy-resolving resolution with a vertical extent down to 1,500 m. A key feature of TianHai is the integration of atmospheric forcings through FuXi-Atmosphere, a data-driven atmospheric forecasting system, which enables the explicit representation of air-sea coupling effects. Unlike conventional approaches, TianHai does not rely on numerical atmospheric models or external meteorological forecasts, making it a fully data-driven framework for coupled prediction. Benchmark experiments demonstrate that TianHai delivers state-of-the-art performance in forecasting temperature and salinity profiles, zonal and meridional currents, sea surface temperature, and sea level anomalies for lead times ranging from 1 to 10 days.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

Enhanced predictions of the Madden-Julian oscillation using the FuXi-S2S machine learning model: Insights into physical mechanisms

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of tropical atmospheric variability on intraseasonal timescales, and reliable MJO predictions are essential for protecting lives and mitigating impacts on societal assets. However, numerical models still fall short of achieving the theoretical predictability limit for the MJO due to inherent constraints. In an effort to extend the skillful prediction window for the MJO, machine learning (ML) techniques have gained increasing attention. This study examines the MJO prediction performance of the FuXi subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ML model during boreal winter, comparing it with the European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts S2S model. Results indicate that for the initial strong MJO phase 3, the FuXi-S2S model demonstrates reduced biases in intraseasonal outgoing longwave radiation anomalies averaged over the tropical western Pacific (WP) region during days 15-20, with the convective center located over this area. Analysis of multiscale interactions related to moisture transport suggests that improvements could be attributed to the FuXi-S2S model's more accurate prediction of the area-averaged meridional gradient of low-frequency background moisture over the tropical WP. These findings not only explain the enhanced predictive capability of the FuXi-S2S model but also highlight the potential of ML approaches in advancing the MJO forecasting.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

Terrain-aware Deep Learning for Wind Energy Applications: From Kilometer-scale Forecasts to Fine Wind Fields

High-resolution wind information is essential for wind energy planning and power forecasting, particularly in regions with complex terrain. However, most AI-based weather forecasting models operate at kilometer-scale resolution, constrained by the reanalysis datasets they are trained on. Here we introduce FuXi-CFD, an AI-based downscaling framework designed to generate detailed three-dimensional wind fields at 30-meter horizontal resolution, using only coarse-resolution atmospheric inputs. The model is trained on a large-scale dataset generated via computational fluid dynamics (CFD), encompassing a wide range of terrain types, surface roughness, and inflow conditions. Remarkably, FuXi-CFD predicts full 3D wind structures -- including vertical wind and turbulent kinetic energy -- based solely on horizontal wind input at 10 meters above ground, the typical output of AI-based forecast systems. It achieves CFD-comparable accuracy while reducing inference time from hours to seconds. By bridging the resolution gap between regional forecasts and site-specific wind dynamics, FuXi-CFD offers a scalable and operationally efficient solution to support the growing demands of renewable energy deployment.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

A machine learning model for skillful climate system prediction

Climate system models (CSMs), through integrating cross-sphere interactions among the atmosphere, ocean, land, and cryosphere, have emerged as pivotal tools for deciphering climate dynamics and improving forecasting capabilities. Recent breakthroughs in artificial intelligence (AI)-driven meteorological modeling have demonstrated remarkable success in single-sphere systems and partially spheres coupled systems. However, the development of a fully coupled AI-based climate system model encompassing atmosphere-ocean-land-sea ice interactions has remained an unresolved challenge. This paper introduces FengShun-CSM, an AI-based CSM model that provides 60-day global daily forecasts for 29 critical variables across atmospheric, oceanic, terrestrial, and cryospheric domains. The model significantly outperforms the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) model in predicting most variables, particularly precipitation, land surface, and oceanic components. This enhanced capability is primarily attributed to its improved representation of intra-seasonal variability modes, most notably the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Remarkably, FengShun-CSM exhibits substantial potential in predicting subseasonal extreme events. Such breakthroughs will advance its applications in meteorological disaster mitigation, marine ecosystem conservation, and agricultural productivity enhancement. Furthermore, it validates the feasibility of developing AI-powered CSMs through machine learning technologies, establishing a transformative paradigm for next-generation Earth system modeling.

cs.LG↗