arXiv subjects

Xiaojing Du

Publications and source records attributed to Xiaojing Du.

18 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

When Interference Graphs Evolve: Doubly Robust Estimation of Dynamic Peer Effects

Peer effects are difficult to estimate when interaction graphs evolve because pre-assignment network history, dynamic peer exposure, and post-assignment network change have distinct causal roles. We introduce a controlled contrast framework that indexes potential outcomes by own treatment, temporally aggregated peer exposure, and a post-assignment evolution summary. Differences between the resulting means define own-treatment, peer-exposure, controlled network-evolution, and joint controlled contrasts rather than a mediation decomposition. We develop the Dynamic Network Doubly Robust estimator, DynaNet-DR, which combines a temporally factorized propensity with normalized augmentation. Under consistency, summary sufficiency, sequential exchangeability, positivity, nuisance convergence, and weak dependence, its canonical estimator is consistent when either the outcome regression or the propensity estimator is consistent. The reported implementation adds representative-score prediction, fixed clipping, and finite-sample stabilization. Semi-synthetic benchmarks on fixed real temporal graph sequences show favorable estimation accuracy among methods targeting the full profile. These benchmarks assess summary-indexed contrasts rather than counterfactual edge generation, and the MathOverflow study is an observational illustration under the stated assumptions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Transportable Causal Effect Estimation across Networks under Interference

Estimating causal effects under network interference typically assumes that the network used for training and the network used for deployment coincide. In practice, an intervention is run on one population while the question of interest concerns a different population, and the two generally differ in topology, node-covariate composition, and spillover pathways. Transporting a causal effect across networks is therefore a data-fusion problem that no existing algorithm solves. We employ a selection diagram, extended to the network setting so that covariate shift and structural network shift enter as separate selectors, and derive from it a transport formula for the direct, spillover, and total effects in the deployment population. Each formula makes explicit which interventional mechanism is assumed invariant and which observational distribution must be reweighted. We then turn the formulas into TranCE (Transported Causal Effects), a doubly-robust algorithm combining an interventional outcome model, a domain density-ratio correction, and cross-fitted inference. Extensive experiments on two semi-synthetic benchmarks derived from real-world social networks and on a fully real weather-insurance field experiment, where the transported effects are checked against held-out randomized estimates, confirm the effectiveness of our approach. Our findings have the potential to improve intervention strategies in networked systems, particularly in social networks and public health.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

TempoNet: Slack-Quantized Transformer-Guided Reinforcement Scheduler for Adaptive Deadline-Centric Real-Time Dispatchs

Real-time schedulers must reason about tight deadlines under strict compute budgets. We present TempoNet, a reinforcement learning scheduler that pairs a permutation-invariant Transformer with a deep Q-approximation. An Urgency Tokenizer discretizes temporal slack into learnable embeddings, stabilizing value learning and capturing deadline proximity. A latency-aware sparse attention stack with blockwise top-k selection and locality-sensitive chunking enables global reasoning over unordered task sets with near-linear scaling and sub-millisecond inference. A multicore mapping layer converts contextualized Q-scores into processor assignments through masked-greedy selection or differentiable matching. Extensive evaluations on industrial mixed-criticality traces and large multiprocessor settings show consistent gains in deadline fulfillment over analytic schedulers and neural baselines, together with improved optimization stability. Diagnostics include sensitivity analyses for slack quantization, attention-driven policy interpretation, hardware-in-the-loop and kernel micro-benchmarks, and robustness under stress with simple runtime mitigations; we also report sample-efficiency benefits from behavioral-cloning pretraining and compatibility with an actor-critic variant without altering the inference pipeline. These results establish a practical framework for Transformer-based decision making in high-throughput real-time scheduling.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

NeuroSymActive: Differentiable Neural-Symbolic Reasoning with Active Exploration for Knowledge Graph Question Answering

Large pretrained language models and neural reasoning systems have advanced many natural language tasks, yet they remain challenged by knowledge-intensive queries that require precise, structured multi-hop inference. Knowledge graphs provide a compact symbolic substrate for factual grounding, but integrating graph structure with neural models is nontrivial: naively embedding graph facts into prompts leads to inefficiency and fragility, while purely symbolic or search-heavy approaches can be costly in retrievals and lack gradient-based refinement. We introduce NeuroSymActive, a modular framework that combines a differentiable neural-symbolic reasoning layer with an active, value-guided exploration controller for Knowledge Graph Question Answering. The method couples soft-unification style symbolic modules with a neural path evaluator and a Monte-Carlo style exploration policy that prioritizes high-value path expansions. Empirical results on standard KGQA benchmarks show that NeuroSymActive attains strong answer accuracy while reducing the number of expensive graph lookups and model calls compared to common retrieval-augmented baselines.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Group Cognition Learning: Making Everything Better Through Governed Two-Stage Agents Collaboration

Centralized multimodal learning commonly compresses language, acoustic, and visual signals into a single fused representation for prediction. While effective, this paradigm suffers from two limitations: modality dominance, where optimization gravitates towards the path of least resistance, ignoring weaker but informative modalities, and spurious modality coupling, where models overfit to incidental cross-modal correlations. To address these, we propose Group Cognition Learning (GCL), a governed collaboration paradigm that applies a two-stage protocol after modality-specific encoding. In Stage 1 (Selective Interaction), a Routing Agent proposes directed interaction routes, and an Auditing Agent assigns sample-wise gates to emphasize exchanges that yield positive marginal predictive gain while suppressing redundant coupling. In Stage 2 (Consensus Formation), a Public-Factor Agent maintains an explicit shared factor, and an Aggregation Agent produces the final prediction through contribution-aware weighting while keeping each modality representation as a specialization channel. Extensive experiments on CMU-MOSI, CMU-MOSEI, and MIntRec demonstrate that GCL mitigates dominance and coupling, establishing state-of-the-art results across both regression and classification benchmarks. Analysis experiments further demonstrate the effectiveness of the design.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Deconfounded Time Series Forecasting: A Causal Inference Approach

Time series forecasting is a critical task in various domains, where accurate predictions can drive informed decision-making. Traditional forecasting methods often rely on current observations of variables to predict future outcomes, typically overlooking the influence of latent confounders, unobserved variables that simultaneously affect both the predictors and the target outcomes. This oversight can introduce bias and degrade the performance of predictive models. In this study, we address this challenge by proposing an enhanced forecasting approach that incorporates representations of latent confounders derived from historical data. By integrating these confounders into the predictive process, our method aims to improve the accuracy and robustness of time series forecasts. The proposed approach is demonstrated through its application to climate science data, showing significant improvements over traditional methods that do not account for confounders.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Identifying the Group to Intervene on to Maximise Effect Under Cross-Group Interference

In many networked systems, interventions applied to one group of units can induce substantial causal effects on another group through cross-group interference pathways. Despite its practical importance in domains such as public health, digital marketing, and social policy, the problem of identifying which intervention subset in a source group maximizes the benefit on a target group remains largely unaddressed. We formalize this problem as cross-group causal influence estimation and introduce the core-to-group causal effect (Co2G), a formally defined causal estimand that quantifies the contrast in target-group outcomes under intervention versus non-intervention on a candidate source subset. We establish the nonparametric identifiability of Co2G from observational network data using do-calculus under standard causal assumptions, and develop a graph neural network-based estimator that captures cross-group interference patterns. To navigate the combinatorial search space of candidate subsets, we propose CauMax, an uncertainty-aware causal effect maximization framework with two scalable selection algorithms: (i)CauMax-G, an iterative greedy search with Monte Carlo dropout--based lower confidence bounds, and (ii)CauMax-D, a differentiable gradient-based optimization via Gumbel-Softmax relaxation. Extensive experiments on two real-world social networks demonstrate that CauMax achieves an order-of-magnitude reduction in regret compared with structural heuristics and diffusion-based baselines, and that moderate uncertainty penalization consistently improves subset selection quality.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2026

Temporal-Spatial Decouple before Act: Disentangled Representation Learning for Multimodal Sentiment Analysis

Multimodal Sentiment Analysis integrates Linguistic, Visual, and Acoustic. Mainstream approaches based on modality-invariant and modality-specific factorization or on complex fusion still rely on spatiotemporal mixed modeling. This ignores spatiotemporal heterogeneity, leading to spatiotemporal information asymmetry and thus limited performance. Hence, we propose TSDA, Temporal-Spatial Decouple before Act, which explicitly decouples each modality into temporal dynamics and spatial structural context before any interaction. For every modality, a temporal encoder and a spatial encoder project signals into separate temporal and spatial body. Factor-Consistent Cross-Modal Alignment then aligns temporal features only with their temporal counterparts across modalities, and spatial features only with their spatial counterparts. Factor specific supervision and decorrelation regularization reduce cross factor leakage while preserving complementarity. A Gated Recouple module subsequently recouples the aligned streams for task. Extensive experiments show that TSDA outperforms baselines. Ablation analysis studies confirm the necessity and interpretability of the design.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

FinSentLLM: Multi-LLM and Structured Semantic Signals for Enhanced Financial Sentiment Forecasting

Financial sentiment analysis (FSA) has attracted significant attention, and recent studies increasingly explore large language models (LLMs) for this field. Yet most work evaluates only classification metrics, leaving unclear whether sentiment signals align with market behavior. We propose FinSentLLM, a lightweight multi-LLM framework that integrates an expert panel of sentiment forecasting LLMs, and structured semantic financial signals via a compact meta-classifier. This design captures expert complementarity, semantic reasoning signal, and agreement/divergence patterns without costly retraining, yielding consistent 3-6% gains over strong baselines in accuracy and F1-score on the Financial PhraseBank dataset. In addition, we also provide econometric evidence that financial sentiment and stock markets exhibit statistically significant long-run comovement, applying Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH (DCC-GARCH) and the Johansen cointegration test to daily sentiment scores computed from the FNSPID dataset and major stock indices. Together, these results demonstrate that FinSentLLM delivers superior forecasting accuracy for financial sentiment and further establish that sentiment signals are robustly linked to long-run equity market dynamics.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2025

From Noise to Precision: A Diffusion-Driven Approach to Zero-Inflated Precipitation Prediction

Zero-inflated data pose significant challenges in precipitation forecasting due to the predominance of zeros with sparse non-zero events. To address this, we propose the Zero Inflation Diffusion Framework (ZIDF), which integrates Gaussian perturbation for smoothing zero-inflated distributions, Transformer-based prediction for capturing temporal patterns, and diffusion-based denoising to restore the original data structure. In our experiments, we use observational precipitation data collected from South Australia along with synthetically generated zero-inflated data. Results show that ZIDF demonstrates significant performance improvements over multiple state-of-the-art precipitation forecasting models, achieving up to 56.7\% reduction in MSE and 21.1\% reduction in MAE relative to the baseline Non-stationary Transformer. These findings highlight ZIDF's ability to robustly handle sparse time series data and suggest its potential generalizability to other domains where zero inflation is a key challenge.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Peer Effect Estimation in the Presence of Simultaneous Feedback and Unobserved Confounders

Estimating peer causal effects within complex real-world networks such as social networks is challenging, primarily due to simultaneous feedback between peers and unobserved confounders. Existing methods either address unobserved confounders while ignoring the simultaneous feedback, or account for feedback but under restrictive linear assumptions, thus failing to obtain accurate peer effect estimation. In this paper, we propose DIG2RSI, a novel Deep learning framework which leverages I-G transformation (matrix operation) and 2SRI (an instrumental variable or IV technique) to address both simultaneous feedback and unobserved confounding, while accommodating complex, nonlinear and high-dimensional relationships. DIG2RSI first applies the I-G transformation to disentangle mutual peer influences and eliminate the bias due to the simultaneous feedback. To deal with unobserved confounding, we first construct valid IVs from network data. In stage 1 of 2RSI, we train a neural network on these IVs to predict peer exposure, and extract residuals as proxies for the unobserved confounders. In the stage 2, we fit a separate neural network augmented by an adversarial discriminator that incorporates these residuals as a control function and enforces the learned representation to contain no residual confounding signal. The expressive power of deep learning models in capturing complex non-linear relationships and adversarial debiasing enhances the effectiveness of DIG2RSI in eliminating bias from both feedback loops and hidden confounders. We prove consistency of our estimator under standard regularity conditions, ensuring asymptotic recovery of the true peer effect. Empirical results on two semi-synthetic benchmarks and a real-world dataset demonstrate that DIG2RSI outperforms existing approaches.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Deconfounding Multi-Cause Latent Confounders: A Factor-Model Approach to Climate Model Bias Correction

Global Climate Models (GCMs) are crucial for predicting future climate changes by simulating the Earth systems. However, the GCM Outputs exhibit systematic biases due to model uncertainties, parameterization simplifications, and inadequate representation of complex climate phenomena. Traditional bias correction methods, which rely on historical observation data and statistical techniques, often neglect unobserved confounders, leading to biased results. This paper proposes a novel bias correction approach to utilize both GCM and observational data to learn a factor model that captures multi-cause latent confounders. Inspired by recent advances in causality based time series deconfounding, our method first constructs a factor model to learn latent confounders from historical data and then applies them to enhance the bias correction process using advanced time series forecasting models. The experimental results demonstrate significant improvements in the accuracy of precipitation outputs. By addressing unobserved confounders, our approach offers a robust and theoretically grounded solution for climate model bias correction.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Galaxy Mergers in the Epoch of Reionization I: A JWST Study of Pair Fractions, Merger Rates, and Stellar Mass Accretion Rates at $z = 4.5-11.5$

We present a full analysis of galaxy major merger pair fractions, merger rates, and mass accretion rates, thus uncovering the role of mergers in galaxy formation at the earliest previously unexplored epoch of $4.5<z<11.5$. We target galaxies with masses $\log_{10}(\mathrm{M}_*/\mathrm{M}_\odot) = 8.0 - 10.0$, utilizing data from eight JWST Cycle-1 fields (CEERS, JADES GOODS-S, NEP-TDF, NGDEEP, GLASS, El-Gordo, SMACS-0723, MACS-0416), covering an unmasked area of 189.36 $\mathrm{arcmin}^2$. We develop a new probabilistic pair-counting methodology that integrates full photometric redshift posteriors and corrects for detection incompleteness to quantify close pairs with physical projected separations between 20 and 50 kpc. Our analysis reveals an increase in pair fractions up to $z = 8$, reaching $0.211 \pm 0.065$, followed by a statistically flat evolution to $z = 11.5$. We find that the galaxy merger rate increases from the local Universe up to $z = 6$ and then stabilizes at a value of $\sim 6$ Gyr$^{-1}$ up to $z = 11.5$. The redshift evolution of both pair fractions and merger rates is well described by a power-law plus exponential model. In addition, we measure that the average galaxy increases its stellar mass due to mergers by a factor of $2.77 \pm 0.99$ from redshift $z = 10.5$ to $z = 5.0$. Lastly, we investigate the impact of mergers on galaxy stellar mass growth, revealing that mergers contribute as much as $71 \pm 25\%$ to galaxy stellar mass growth. This indicates that mergers drive about half of galaxy assembly at high redshift.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

Galaxy Mergers in the Epoch of Reionization II: Major Merger-Triggered Star Formation and AGN Activities at $z =$ 4.5-8.5

Galaxy mergers are a key driver of galaxy formation and evolution, including the triggering of AGN and star formation to a still unknown degree. We thus investigate the impact of galaxy mergers on star formation and AGN activity using a sample of 3,330 galaxies at $z = [4.5, 8.5]$ from eight JWST fields (CEERS, JADES GOODS-S, NEP-TDF, NGDEEP, GLASS, El-Gordo, SMACS-0723, and MACS-0416), collectively covering an unmasked area of 189 arcmin$^2$. We focuses on star formation rate (SFR) enhancement, AGN fraction, and AGN excess in major merger ($μ> 1/4$) close-pair samples, defined by $Δz < 0.3$ and projected separations $r_p < 100$ kpc, compared to non-merger samples. We find that SFR enhancement occurs only at $r_p < 20$ kpc, with values of $0.25 \pm 0.10$ dex and $0.26 \pm 0.11$ dex above the non-merger medians for $z = [4.5, 6.5]$ and $z = [6.5, 8.5]$. No other statistically significant enhancements in galaxy sSFR or stellar mass are observed at any projected separation or redshift bin. We also compare our observational results with predictions from the SC-SAM simulation and find no evidence of star formation enhancement in the simulations at any separation range. Finally, we examine the AGN fraction and AGN excess, finding that the fraction of AGNs in AGN-galaxy pairs, relative to the total AGN population, is $3.25^{+1.50}_{-1.06}$ times greater than the fraction of galaxy pairs relative to the overall galaxy population at the same redshift. We find that nearly all AGNs have a companion within 100 kpc and observe an excess AGN fraction in close-pair samples compared to non-merger samples. This excess is found to be $1.26 \pm 0.06$ and $1.34 \pm 0.06$ for AGNs identified via the inferred BPT diagram and photometric SED selection, respectively.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2024

Mitigating Dual Latent Confounding Biases in Recommender Systems

Recommender systems are extensively utilised across various areas to predict user preferences for personalised experiences and enhanced user engagement and satisfaction. Traditional recommender systems, however, are complicated by confounding bias, particularly in the presence of latent confounders that affect both item exposure and user feedback. Existing debiasing methods often fail to capture the complex interactions caused by latent confounders in interaction data, especially when dual latent confounders affect both the user and item sides. To address this, we propose a novel debiasing method that jointly integrates the Instrumental Variables (IV) approach and identifiable Variational Auto-Encoder (iVAE) for Debiased representation learning in Recommendation systems, referred to as IViDR. Specifically, IViDR leverages the embeddings of user features as IVs to address confounding bias caused by latent confounders between items and user feedback, and reconstructs the embedding of items to obtain debiased interaction data. Moreover, IViDR employs an Identifiable Variational Auto-Encoder (iVAE) to infer identifiable representations of latent confounders between item exposure and user feedback from both the original and debiased interaction data. Additionally, we provide theoretical analyses of the soundness of using IV and the identifiability of the latent representations. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that IViDR outperforms state-of-the-art models in reducing bias and providing reliable recommendations.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2024

Estimating Peer Direct and Indirect Effects in Observational Network Data

Estimating causal effects is crucial for decision-makers in many applications, but it is particularly challenging with observational network data due to peer interactions. Many algorithms have been proposed to estimate causal effects involving network data, particularly peer effects, but they often overlook the variety of peer effects. To address this issue, we propose a general setting which considers both peer direct effects and peer indirect effects, and the effect of an individual's own treatment, and provide identification conditions of these causal effects and proofs. To estimate these causal effects, we utilize attention mechanisms to distinguish the influences of different neighbors and explore high-order neighbor effects through multi-layer graph neural networks (GNNs). Additionally, to control the dependency between node features and representations, we incorporate the Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC) into the GNN, fully utilizing the structural information of the graph, to enhance the robustness and accuracy of the model. Extensive experiments on two semi-synthetic datasets confirm the effectiveness of our approach. Our theoretical findings have the potential to improve intervention strategies in networked systems, with applications in areas such as social networks and epidemiology.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

Causal GNNs: A GNN-Driven Instrumental Variable Approach for Causal Inference in Networks

As network data applications continue to expand, causal inference within networks has garnered increasing attention. However, hidden confounders complicate the estimation of causal effects. Most methods rely on the strong ignorability assumption, which presumes the absence of hidden confounders-an assumption that is both difficult to validate and often unrealistic in practice. To address this issue, we propose CgNN, a novel approach that leverages network structure as instrumental variables (IVs), combined with graph neural networks (GNNs) and attention mechanisms, to mitigate hidden confounder bias and improve causal effect estimation. By utilizing network structure as IVs, we reduce confounder bias while preserving the correlation with treatment. Our integration of attention mechanisms enhances robustness and improves the identification of important nodes. Validated on two real-world datasets, our results demonstrate that CgNN effectively mitigates hidden confounder bias and offers a robust GNN-driven IV framework for causal inference in complex network data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

MRC-based Nested Medical NER with Co-prediction and Adaptive Pre-training

In medical information extraction, medical Named Entity Recognition (NER) is indispensable, playing a crucial role in developing medical knowledge graphs, enhancing medical question-answering systems, and analyzing electronic medical records. The challenge in medical NER arises from the complex nested structures and sophisticated medical terminologies, distinguishing it from its counterparts in traditional domains. In response to these complexities, we propose a medical NER model based on Machine Reading Comprehension (MRC), which uses a task-adaptive pre-training strategy to improve the model's capability in the medical field. Meanwhile, our model introduces multiple word-pair embeddings and multi-granularity dilated convolution to enhance the model's representation ability and uses a combined predictor of Biaffine and MLP to improve the model's recognition performance. Experimental evaluations conducted on the CMeEE, a benchmark for Chinese nested medical NER, demonstrate that our proposed model outperforms the compared state-of-the-art (SOTA) models.

cs.CL↗