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Xiaolu Tan

Publications and source records attributed to Xiaolu Tan.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Particle Methods with Deep Learning for Stochastic Control under Partial Observation

Numerical computation of stochastic control problems under partial observation is challenging because the dynamic programming formulation is naturally posed on the conditional distribution of the hidden state. We propose particle-based methods that replace this infinite-dimensional filtering state by a finite-dimensional weighted particle system, building on recent limit theory for mean-field control with common-noise-adapted controls. We prove, under suitable assumptions, convergence of the fully discretized particle approximation to the original continuous-time partially observed control problem. The particle reformulation is high-dimensional but permutation-invariant, a structure that can be exploited by symmetric neural network architectures. We develop two deep learning algorithms: a direct optimization method for feedback controls and a Deep BSDE method for particle problems admitting a backward stochastic differential equation representation. We also extend the computational framework to partially observed mean-field control problems, which have been studied theoretically but remain less developed numerically. Numerical experiments on a linear--quadratic benchmark, a nonlinear partially observed mean-field control problem, and two financial applications, portfolio liquidation and asset allocation, demonstrate the accuracy and practical utility of the approach.

math.OC

Comparison of viscosity solutions for a class of non-linear PDEs on the space of finite nonnegative measures

We establish a comparison principle for viscosity solutions of a class of nonlinear partial differential equations posed on the space of nonnegative finite measures, thereby extending recent results for PDEs defined on the Wasserstein space of probability measures. As an application, we study a controlled branching McKean-Vlasov diffusion and characterize the associated value function as the unique viscosity solution of the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. This yields a PDE-based approach to the optimal control of branching processes.

math.PR

Optimal incentive scheme for ESG disclosure

This paper characterises optimal incentive schemes for ESG disclosure in a continuous-time principal-agent setting. We model a risk-averse principal (e.g., a platform or standard-setter) contracting with a team of heterogeneous agents whose disclosure signals are each correlated with a traded climate risk factor. The optimal contract balances incentive provision against the variance of aggregate payouts by leveraging three instruments: own-signal loading, cross-signal loadings across agents, and hedging tilts on the traded asset. We derive closed-form linear optimal controls in a tractable linear-quadratic-Gaussian framework. When the principal is nearly risk-neutral, the contract uses the traded asset purely to hedge the specific `enforcement risk' generated by high-powered incentives. As the principal's risk aversion increases, the optimal scheme converges to a `market-neutral' regime where aggregate asset exposure is eliminated and the cross-signal structure tightens to an `identity pooling' constraint. We characterise this limit analytically as a constrained quadratic program governed by an M-matrix. In the high-risk-aversion regime, heterogeneity creates genuinely new effects absent under symmetry: the cross-section of S-tilts must change sign (unless degenerate), and an agent's own-signal diagonal can turn negative when that row is too strongly exposed to the common traded factor relative to the rest of the group. The results provide a theoretical foundation for `mixed' compensation structures in Regenerative Finance (ReFi), rationalising the use of both stable payments and volatile governance tokens to optimise risk-sharing.

econ.GN

Quantitative weak propagation of chaos for McKean--Vlasov branching diffusion processes

We study in this paper the weak propagation of chaos for McKean--Vlasov diffusions with branching, whose induced marginal measures are nonnegative finite measures but not necessary probability measures. The flow of marginal measures satisfies a non-linear Fokker--Planck equation, along which we provide a functional Itô's formula. We then consider a functional of the terminal marginal measure of the branching process, whose conditional value is solution to a Kolmogorov backward master equation. By using Itô's formula and based on the estimates of second-order linear and intrinsic functional derivatives of the value function, we finally derive a quantitative weak convergence rate for the empirical measures of the branching diffusion processes with finite population.

math.PR

Optimal Control of McKean--Vlasov Branching Diffusion Processes

We study an optimal control problem of McKean--Vlasov branching diffusion processes, in which the interaction term is determined by the marginal measure induced by all alive particles in the system. Accordingly, the value function is defined on the space of finite nonnegative measures over the Euclidean space. Within the framework of Lipschitz continuous closed-loop controls, and by using the uniqueness of solution to the associated nonlinear Fokker--Planck equation, we establish the dynamic programming principle. Further, under the regularity assumptions, we show that the value function satisfies a Hamilton--Jacobi--Bellman (HJB) master equation defined on the space of finite nonnegative measures. We next provide a corresponding verification theorem. Finally, we study a linear--quadratic controlled branching processes problem, for which explicit solutions are derived in terms of Riccati-type equations.

math.OC

Unbiased simulation of Asian options

We provide an extension of the unbiased simulation method for SDEs developed in Henry-Labordere et al. [Ann Appl Probab. 27:6 (2017) 1-37] to a class of path-dependent dynamics, pertaining for Asian options. In our setting, both the payoff and the SDE's coefficients depend on the (weighted) average of the process or, more precisely, on the integral of the solution to the SDE against a continuous function with bounded variations. In particular, this applies to the numerical resolution of the class of path-dependent PDEs whose regularity, in the sens of Dupire, is studied in Bouchard and Tan [Ann. I.H.P., to appear].

math.PR

Limit theory for mean-field control problems with common noise adapted controls

We consider a mean-field control problem in which admissible controls are required to be adapted to the common noise filtration. The main objective is to show how the mean-field control problem can be approximates by time consistent centralized finite population problems in which the central planner has full information on all agents' states and gives an identical signal to all agents. We also aim at establishing the optimal convergence rate. In a first general path-dependent setting, we only prove convergence by using weak convergence techniques of probability measures on the canonical space. Next, when only the drift coefficient is controlled, we obtain a backward SDE characterization of the value process, based on which a convergence rate is established in terms of the Wasserstein distance between the original measure and the empirical one induced by the particles. It requires Lipschitz continuity conditions in the Wasserstein sense. The convergence rate is optimal. In a Markovian setting and under convexity conditions on the running reward function, we next prove uniqueness of the optimal control and provide regularity results on the value function, and then deduce the optimal weak convergence rate in terms of the number of particles. Finally, we apply these results to the study of a classical optimal control problem with partial observation, leading to an original approximation method by particle systems.

math.OC

A mean-field version of Bank-El Karoui's representation of stochastic processes

We study a mean-field version of Bank-El Karoui's representation theorem of stochastic processes. Under different technical conditions, we establish some existence and uniqueness results. As motivation and first applications, our mean-field representation results provide a unified approach to study different Mean-Field Games (MFGs) in the setting with common noise and multiple populations, including the MFG of timing, the MFG with singular control, etc. As a crucial technical step, we provide a stability result on the classical Bank-El Karoui's representation theorem, which has its own interests and other applications, such as in deriving stability results of the optimizers (in the strong sense) for a class of optimal stopping problems and singular control problems.

math.PR

Exit Incentives for Carbon Emissive Firms

We develop a continuous-time model of incentives for carbon emissive firms to exit the market based on a compensation payment identical to all firms. In our model, firms enjoy profits from production modeled as a simple geometric Brownian motion and do not bear any environmental damage from production. A regulator maximises the expected discounted value of firms profits from production minus environmental damages caused by production and proposes a compensation payment whose dynamics is known to the firms. We provide in both situations closed-form expressions for the compensation payment process and the exit thresholds of each firms. We apply our model to the crude oil market. We show that market concentration both reduces the total expected discounted payment to firms and the expected closing time of polluting assets. We extend this framework to the case of two countries each regulating its own market. The presence of a second mover advantage leads to the possibility of multiple equilibria. Applying this result to large producing countries, we find that they are unlikely to agree on the timing to exit market.

econ.GN

Capacities, Measurable Selection and Dynamic Programming Part II: Application in Stochastic Control Problems

We provide an overview on how to use the measurable selection techniques to derive the dynamic programming principle for a general stochastic optimal control/stopping problem. By considering its martingale problem formulation on the canonical space of paths, one can check the required measurability conditions. This covers in particular the most classical controlled/stopped diffusion processes problems. Further, we study the approximation property of the optimal control problems by piecewise constant control problems. As a byproduct, we obtain an equivalence result of the strong, weak and relaxed formulations of the controlled/stopped diffusion processes problem.

math.OC

On McKean-Vlasov Branching Diffusion Processes

We study a nonlinear branching diffusion process in the sense of McKean, i.e., where particles are subjected to a mean-field interaction. We consider first a strong formulation of the problem and we provide an existence and uniqueness result by using contraction arguments. Then we consider the notion of weak solution and its equivalent martingale problem formulation. In this setting, we provide a general weak existence result, as well as a propagation of chaos property, i.e., the McKean-Vlasov branching diffusion is the limit of a large population branching diffusion process with mean-field interaction.

math.PR

An exit contract optimization problem

We study an exit contract design problem, where one provides a universal exit contract to multiple heterogeneous agents, with which each agent chooses an optimal (exit) stopping time. The problem consists in optimizing the universal exit contract w.r.t. some criterion depending on the contract as well as the agents' exit times. Under a technical monotonicity condition, and by using Bank-El Karoui's representation of stochastic processes, we are able to transform the initial contract optimization problem into an optimal control problem. The latter is also equivalent to an optimal multiple stopping problem and the existence of the optimal contract is proved. We next show that the problem in the continuous-time setting can be approximated by a sequence of discrete-time ones, which would induce a natural numerical approximation method. We finally discuss the optimaization problem over the class of all Markovian and/or continuous exit contracts.

math.PR

A $C^1$-Itô's formula for flows of semimartingale distributions

We provide an Itô's formula for $C^1$-functionals of flows of conditional marginal distributions of continuous semimartingales. This is based on the notion of weak Dirichlet process, and extends the $C^1$-Itô's formula in Gozzi and Russo (2006) to this context. As the first application, we study a class of McKean-Vlasov optimal control problems, and establish a verification theorem which only requires $C^1$-regularity of its value function, which is equivalently the (viscosity) solution of the associated HJB master equation. It goes together with a novel duality result.

math.PR

Ergodicity of the underdamped mean-field Langevin dynamics

We study the long time behavior of an underdamped mean-field Langevin (MFL) equation, and provide a general convergence as well as an exponential convergence rate result under different conditions. The results on the MFL equation can be applied to study the convergence of the Hamiltonian gradient descent algorithm for the overparametrized optimization. We then provide a numerical example of the algorithm to train a generative adversarial networks (GAN).

math.PR

On the regularity of solutions of some linear parabolic path-dependent PDEs

We study a class of linear parabolic path-dependent PDEs (PPDEs) defined on the space of càdlàg paths $x \in D([0,T])$, in which the coefficient functions at time $t$ depend on $x(t)$ and $\int_{0}^{t}x(s)dA_{s}$, for some (deterministic) continuous function $A$ with bounded variations. Under uniform ellipticity and Hölder regularity conditions on the coefficients, together with some technical conditions on $A$, we obtain the existence of a smooth solution to the PPDE by appealing to the notion of Dupire's derivatives. It provides a generalization to the existing literature studying the case where $A_t = t$, and complements our recent work, Bouchard and Tan (2021), on the regularity of approximate viscosity solutions for parabolic PPDEs. As a by-product, we also obtain existence and uniqueness of weak solutions for a class of path-dependent SDEs.

math.PR

Entropic optimal planning for path-dependent mean field games

In the context of mean field games, with possible control of the diffusion coefficient, we consider a path-dependent version of the planning problem introduced by P.L. Lions: given a pair of marginal distributions $(μ_0, μ_1)$, find a specification of the game problem starting from the initial distribution $μ_0$, and inducing the target distribution $μ_1$ at the mean field game equilibrium. Our main result reduces the path-dependent planning problem into an embedding problem, that is, constructing a McKean-Vlasov dynamics with given marginals $(μ_0,μ_1)$. Some sufficient conditions on $(μ_0,μ_1)$ are provided to guarantee the existence of solutions. We also characterize, up to integrability, the minimum entropy solution of the planning problem. In particular, as uniqueness does not hold anymore in our path-dependent setting, one can naturally introduce an optimal planning problem which would be reduced to an optimal transport problem along with controlled McKean-Vlasov dynamics.

math.OC

Discrete-time Approximation of Stochastic Optimal Control with Partial Observation

We consider a class of stochastic optimal control problems with partial observation, and study their approximation by discrete-time control problems. We establish a convergence result by using weak convergence technique of Kushner and Dupuis [Numerical Methods for Stochastic Control Problems in Continuous Time (2001), Springer-Verlag, New York], together with the notion of relaxed control rule introduced by El Karoui, Huu Nguyen and Jeanblanc-Picqué [SIAM J. Control Optim., 26 (1988) 1025-1061]. In particular, with a well chosen discrete-time control system, we obtain a first implementable numerical algorithm (with convergence) for the partially observed control problem. Moreover, our discrete-time approximation result would open the door to study convergence of more general numerical approximation methods, such as machine learning based methods. Finally, we illustrate our convergence result by the numerical experiments on a partially observed control problem in a linear quadratic setting.

math.OC

Convergence of Simulated Annealing Using Kinetic Langevin Dynamics

We study the simulated annealing algorithm based on the kinetic Langevin dynamics, in order to find the global minimum of a non-convex potential function. For both the continuous time formulation and a discrete time analogue, we obtain the convergence rate results under technical conditions on the potential function, together with an appropriate choice of the cooling schedule and the time discretization parameters.

math.PR