arXiv subjects

Xiaoming Kan

Publications and source records attributed to Xiaoming Kan.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Technology interactions reshape the economics of China's coal power decarbonization

Decarbonizing existing coal-fired power plants can contribute to near-term climate mitigation, but identifying cost-effective retrofit strategies is complicated by interactions among mitigation technologies. Here we develop an interaction-aware optimization framework that jointly evaluates energy conservation, biomass co-firing, and carbon capture across 1,885 coal-fired power plants in China while accounting for plant heterogeneity and shared biomass and CO2 storage resources. We find that technology interactions alter both mitigation costs and the emission reductions attributable to individual measures, thereby changing cost-optimal technology portfolios and marginal abatement cost curve at the fleet level. Approximately 1.2 Gt CO2 yr-1 can be mitigated at negative marginal cost, while reaching carbon neutrality requires a marginal abatement cost of US$56 t CO2-1. Progressively deeper mitigation shifts the cost-optimal portfolio from energy conservation toward biomass co-firing and ultimately carbon capture, with biomass combined with carbon capture enabling net-negative emissions. Explicitly accounting for interactions among mitigation technologies therefore provides a more consistent basis for evaluating coal-power decarbonization and coordinating retrofit investment, infrastructure development, and climate policy.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

Adaptive Robust Optimization for European Electricity System Planning Considering Regional Dunkelflaute Events

The expansion of wind and solar power is driving the European energy system transformation, thereby also driving our reliance on this weather-dependent resources. Integrating renewable scarcity events into long-term planning has therefore become essential. This study demonstrates how worst-case regional renewable scarcity events - such as the Dunkelflaute, prolonged periods of low wind and solar availability - can be incorporated endogenously into the planning of a weather-robust, interconnected energy system. We develop a capacity expansion model for a fully decarbonized European electricity system using an adaptive robust optimization framework which incorporates multiple extreme weather realizations within a single optimization run. Results show that system costs rise nonlinearly with the geographic extent of these events: a single worst-case regional disruption increases costs by 9%, but broader disruptions across multiple regions lead to much sharper increases, up to 51%. As Dunkelflaute conditions extend across most of Europe, additional cost impacts level off, with a maximum increase of 71%. The optimal technology mix evolves with the severity of weather stress: while renewables, batteries, and interregional transmission are sufficient to manage localized events, large-scale disruptions require long-term hydrogen storage and load shedding to maintain system resilience. Central European regions, especially Germany and France, emerge as systemic bottlenecks, while peripheral regions bear the cost of compensatory overbuilding. These findings underscore the need for a coordinated European policy strategy that goes beyond national planning to support cross-border infrastructure investment, scale up flexible technologies such as long-duration storage, and promote a geographically balanced deployment of renewables to mitigate systemic risks associated with Dunkelflaute events.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

Modeling Robust Energy Systems Considering Weather Uncertainty and Nuclear Power Failures: A Case Study in Northern Europe

Capacity expansion models used for policy support have increasingly represented both the variability and uncertainty of weather-dependent generation (wind and solar). However, although also uncertain, as demonstrated by the performance of the French nuclear power fleet in 2022, uncertainty arising from nuclear power outages has been largely neglected in the literature. This paper presents the first capacity expansion model that considers uncertainty in nuclear power availability caused by unplanned outages. We propose a mathematical model that combines a scenario-based stochastic optimization approach (to deal with weather-related uncertainties) with a data-driven adjustable robust optimization approach (to deal with nuclear failure-related uncertainties). The robust model represents the bulky behavior of nuclear power plants, with large (1 GW) units that are either on or off, while at the same time letting the model decide on the optimal amount of nuclear capacity. We tested the model in a case for Northern Europe (seven nodes) with a time resolution of 1250 time steps. Our findings show that nuclear power outages do, in fact, impose a vulnerability on the energy system if not considered in the planning phase. Our proposed model performs well and finds solutions that prevent Loss-of-Load (at a price of robustness of 0.6%), even in more extreme weather conditions. Robust solutions are characterized by a higher capacity of gas plants, but, perhaps surprisingly, nuclear power capacity is barely affected.

math.OC↗

arXiv2024

Chasing the eternal sun: Does a global super grid favor the deployment of solar power?

The One Sun One World One Grid (OSOWOG) initiative advocates the development of a global Super grid for sharing renewable energy, especially solar energy. This study evaluates the economic benefits of such a Super grid, which connects six large regions spanning from Australia to the US, utilizing a detailed energy system optimization model and considering heterogeneous discount rates among countries. Integrating the six regions into a Super grid reduces the electricity system cost by 3.8% compared to isolating them. In contrast, grid expansion within each region reduces the electricity system cost by 12% on average. The economic benefits of the OSOWOG initiative's global Super grid expansion seem to be rather limited. Moreover, the allowance for a Super grid consistently results in decreased investments in solar power, indicating that it is not an effective strategy for enhancing the deployment of solar power, even when transmission grids covering 18 time zones are available.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

Renewable levelized cost of energy available for export: An indicator for exploring global renewable energy trade potential

Renewable energy resources are widely available, yet they are unevenly distributed globally. In a renewable future, countries lacking high-quality renewable resources may choose to import energy from other countries. To assess the resource-dependent and techno-economic basis for global renewable energy trade and identify potential importers and exporters, this study introduces two new metrics: Renewable Levelized Cost of Energy available for Export (RLCOE_Ex) and Potential Energy Export Volume (PEEV). These metrics are computed based on regional resource potential, domestic energy demand and varying financial costs across countries, without the need for any energy system modeling. By applying these two metrics to 165 countries/regions, we identify countries with significant potential for exporting renewable energy (e.g., the US, China) and those that lack the domestic resources to satisfy demand (e.g., South Korea, Japan). The RLCOE_Ex and PEEV metrics are validated through a separate analysis, employing a comprehensive energy system model for each country/region.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

The impacts of the electricity demand pattern on electricity system cost and the electricity supply mix: a comprehensive modeling analysis for Europe

Energy system models for long-term planning are widely used to explore the future electricity system. Typically, to represent the future electricity demand in these models, historical demand profiles are used directly or scaled up linearly. Although the volume change for the electricity demand is considered, the potential change of the demand pattern is ignored. Meanwhile, the future electricity demand pattern is highly uncertain due to various factors, including climate change, e-mobility, electric heating, and electric cooling. We use a techno-economic cost optimization model to investigate a stylized case and assess the effects on system cost and electricity supply mix of assuming different demand patterns for the models. Our results show that differences in diurnal demand patterns affect the system cost by less than 3%. Similarly, demand profiles with a flat seasonal variation or a winter peak result in only minor changes in system cost, as compared to the present demand profile. Demand profiles with a summer peak may display a system cost increase of up to 8%, whereas the electricity supply mix may differ by a factor of two. A more detailed case study is conducted for Europe and the results are consistent with the findings from the stylized case.

physics.pop-ph↗

arXiv2020

The cost of a future low-carbon electricity system without nuclear power for Sweden

To achieve the goal of deep decarbonization of the electricity system, more and more variable renewable energy (VRE) is being adopted. However, there is no consensus among researchers on whether the goal can be accomplished without large cost escalation if nuclear power is excluded in the future electricity system. In Sweden, where nuclear power generated 41% of the annual electricity supply in 2014, the official goal is 100% renewable electricity production by 2040. Therefore, we investigate the cost of a future low-carbon electricity system without nuclear power for Sweden. We model the European electricity system with a focus on Sweden and run a techno-economic cost optimization model for capacity investment and dispatch of generation, transmission, storage and demand-response, under a CO2 emission constraint of 10 g/kWh. Our results show that there are no, or only minor, cost benefits to reinvest in nuclear power plants in Sweden once the old ones are decommissioned. This holds for a large range of assumptions on technology costs and possibilities for investment in additional transmission capacity. We contrast our results with the recent study that claims severe cost penalties for not allowing nuclear power in Sweden and discuss the implications of methodology choice.

physics.soc-ph↗