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Xiaoshuai Zhu

Publications and source records attributed to Xiaoshuai Zhu.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

The Deep Learning-Based Dual-Branch Multimodal Fusion Model for Solar Flare Prediction

Solar flares are intense eruptive events caused by the rapid release of magnetic energy, often impacting Earth's space environment through electromagnetic radiation and high-energy particles. Accurate flare prediction is critical for space weather forecasting. However, many existing deep learning approaches often rely on single-modal inputs or shallow feature fusion, limiting their ability to capture complementary information. In this study, we propose a dual-branch multimodal fusion deep learning model for predicting 24-hour solar flares. The model integrates magnetograms and magnetic parameters through cross-attention mechanisms, followed by cross-scale interactions at the feature level to enhance multi-scale representation. It is designed to perform both binary prediction of $\geqslant$ C-class flares and multi-class classification of C, M, and X-class flares. To ensure rigorous evaluation, we employ a stratified group five-fold cross-validation scheme to preserve class representativeness and adopt a splitting-before-sampling strategy based on NOAA active region numbers to prevent data leakage. Experimental results show that the model achieves a TSS of 0.661 and an HSS of 0.658 for binary $\geqslant$ C-class prediction, while notably attaining a TSS of 0.780 and an HSS of 0.775 for X-class flares in the multi-class task. Compared with existing approaches, the model demonstrates superior performance in predicting intense X-class flares, effectively suppresses the false alarm rate, and exhibits strong generalization capability.

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A Major Geomagnetic Storm in 2024 October Linked to Sympathetic CME--Prominence Eruptions

Improving predictions of the geomagnetic impact of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) requires understanding how solar source properties relate to in-situ measurements at Earth. However, major geomagnetic storms frequently arise from interacting CMEs, complicating the link back to their solar origins. We analyze a CME interaction event that caused a major geomagnetic storm in 2024 October 10-11 (D$_{st}$ $\sim$-333 nT). Multiviewpoint observations reveal that the storm was related to a sympathetic eruption involving a quiescent filament and an active-region CME. The coronagraph on board the Advanced Space-based Solar Observatory clearly shows that this sympathetic eruption resulted in two distinct CMEs. Due to the overlap of the CMEs in the coronagraph field of view (FOV), a spheroid shock model was used to fit the observed shock. Kinematic analysis indicates that the interacting CMEs had completed their impulsive acceleration phase before entering the coronagraph FOV, with a slow deceleration continuing beyond 100 R$_\odot$. In-situ measurements indicate that the enhanced southward magnetic fields, arising from compression during CME interactions, were the primary driver of the storm. Compared to photospheric fields, the in-situ magnetic fields suggest that the trailing CME maintained flux-rope-like signatures consistent with the source region. In contrast, the compressed leading CME displayed varying magnetic configurations between Wind and STEREO-A, featuring distorted flux-rope signatures and inconsistent inferred axis orientations. Our study bridges solar source dynamics to in-situ multipoint measurements, providing key insights for space weather prediction. Nevertheless, the direct linkage between source-region magnetic field configurations and these measurements remains tentative and requires further investigation.

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Probing Solar Polar Regions

The magnetic fields and dynamical processes in the solar polar regions play a crucial role in the solar magnetic cycle and in supplying mass and energy to the fast solar wind, ultimately being vital in controlling solar activities and driving space weather. Despite numerous efforts to explore these regions, to date no imaging observations of the Sun's poles have been achieved from vantage points out of the ecliptic plane, leaving their behavior and evolution poorly understood. This observation gap has left three top-level scientific questions unanswered, 1) How does the solar dynamo work and drive the solar magnetic cycle? 2) What drives the fast solar wind? 3) How do space weather processes globally originate from the Sun and propagate throughout the solar system? The Solar Polar-orbit Observatory (SPO) mission, a solar polar exploration spacecraft, is proposed to address these three unanswered scientific questions by imaging the Sun's poles from high heliolatitudes. In order to achieve its scientific goals, SPO will carry six remote-sensing and four in-situ instruments to measure the vector magnetic fields and Doppler velocity fields in the photosphere, to observed the Sun in the extreme ultraviolet, X-ray, and radio wavelengths, to image the corona and the heliosphere up to 45 $R_\odot$, and to perform in-situ detection of magnetic fields, and low- and high-energy particles in the solar wind.

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Observational study of the formation of homologous confined circular-ribbon flares

When several solar flares with comparable classes occur successively at the same location and exhibit similar morphological features, they are called homologous flares. During 2012 May 8-10, five M-class homologous circular-ribbon flares associated with no coronal mass ejection occurred in active region (AR) 11476. The formation process of these homologous confined flares, particularly the homologous aspect, is unclear and inconclusive. This paper is dedicated to studying how the energy for this series of flares was accumulated and whether there existed null points responsible for the flare energy release. Before and during the five flares, the sunspots with opposite polarities sheared against each other and also rotated individually. Before each flare, the magnetic fields at the polarity inversion line were highly sheared and there existed a magnetic flux rope overlain by arch-shaped loops. For the first four flares, we find magnetic null points in the fan-spine topology, situated at about 3.8 Mm, 5.7 Mm, 3.4 Mm, and 2.6 Mm above the photosphere, respectively. For the fifth flare, no null point is detected. However, in the (extreme-)ultraviolet images, the evolution behaviors of all the flares were almost identical. Therefore, we speculate that a null point responsible for the occurrence of the fifth flare may have existed. These results reveal that, for these homologous flares in AR 11476, the sunspot rotation and shearing motion play important roles in energy accumulation, the null point of the fan-spine topology is crucial for energy release through magnetic reconnection therein, and large-scale magnetic loops prevent the erupting material from escaping the Sun, thus forming the observed homologous confined major circular-ribbon flares. This study provides clear evidence for the drivers of successive, homologous flares as well as the nature of confined events.

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The physics of solar spectral imaging observations in dm-cm wavelengths and the application on space weather

Recently, several new solar radio telescopes have been put into operation and provided spectral-imaging observations with much higher resolutions in decimeter (dm) and centimeter (cm) wavelengths. These telescopes include the Mingantu Spectral Radioheliograph (MUSER, at frequencies of 0.4 - 15 GHz), the Expanded Owens Valley Solar Array (EOVSA, at frequencies of 1 - 18 GHz), and the Siberian Radio Heliograph (SRH, at frequencies of 3 - 24 GHz). These observations offer unprecedented opportunities to study solar physics and space weather, especially to diagnose the coronal magnetic fields, reveal the basic nature of solar eruptions and the related non-thermal energy release, particle accelerations and propagation, and the related emission mechanisms. These results might be the important input to the space weather modeling for predicting the occurrence of disastrous powerful space weather events. In order to provide meaningful reference for other solar physicists and space weather researchers, this paper mainly focus on discussing the potential scientific problems of solar radio spectral-imaging observations in dm-cm wavelengths and its possible applications in the field of space weather. These results will provide a helpful reference for colleagues to make full use of the latest and future observation data obtained from the above solar radio telescopes.

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Change ratios of magnetic helicity and magnetic free energy during major solar flares

Magnetic helicity is an important concept in solar physics, with a number of theoretical statements pointing out the important role of magnetic helicity in solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Here we construct a sample of 47 solar flares, which contains 18 no-CME-associated confined flares and 29 CME-associated eruptive flares. We calculate the change ratios of magnetic helicity and magnetic free energy before and after these 47 flares. Our calculations show that the change ratios of magnetic helicity and magnetic free energy show distinct different distributions in confined flares and eruptive flares. The median value of the change ratios of magnetic helicity in confined flares is $-0.8$%, while this number is $-14.5$% for eruptive flares. For the magnetic free energy, the median value of the change ratios is $-4.3$% for confined flares, whereas this number is $-14.6$% for eruptive flares. This statistical result, using observational data, is well consistent with the theoretical understandings that magnetic helicity is approximately conserved in the magnetic reconnection, as shown by confined flares, and the CMEs take away magnetic helicity from the corona, as shown by eruptive flares.

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Magnetic field extrapolation in active region well comparable with observations in multiple layers

Magnetic field extrapolation is a fundamental tool to reconstruct the three-dimensional magnetic field above the solar photosphere. However, the prevalently used force-free field model might not be applicable in the lower atmosphere with non-negligible plasma \b{eta}, where the crucial process of flux rope formation and evolution could happen. In this work, we perform extrapolation in active region (AR) 12158, based on an recently developed magnetohydrostatic (MHS) method which takes plasma forces into account. By comparing the results with those from the force-free field extrapolation methods, we find that the overall properties, which are characterized by the magnetic free energy and helicity, are roughly the same. The major differences lie in the magnetic configuration and the twist number of magnetic flux rope (MFR). Unlike previous works either obtained sheared arcades or one coherent flux rope, the MHS method derives two sets of MFR, which are highly twisted and slightly coupled. Specifically, the result in the present work is more comparable with the high-resolution observations from the chromosphere, through the transition region to the corona, such as the filament fibrils, pre-eruptive braiding characteristics and the eruptive double-J shaped hot channel. Overall, our work shows that the newly developed MHS method is more promising to reproduce the magnetic fine structures that can well match the observations at multiple layers, and future data-driven simulation based on such extrapolation will benefit in understanding the critical and precise dynamics of flux rope before eruption.

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Magnetohydrostatic Modeling of the Solar Atmosphere

Understanding structures and evolutions of the magnetic fields and plasma in multiple layers on the Sun is very important. A force-free magnetic field which is an accurate approximation of the solar corona due to the low plasma $β$ has been widely studied and used to model the coronal magnetic structure. While the force-freeness assumption is well satisfied in the solar corona, the lower atmosphere is not force-free given the high plasma $β$. Therefore, a magnetohydrostatic (MHS) equilibrium which takes into account plasma forces, such as pressure gradient and gravitational force, is considered to be more appropriate to describe the lower atmosphere. This paper reviews both analytical and numerical extrapolation methods based on the MHS assumption for calculating the magnetic fields and plasma in the solar atmosphere from measured magnetograms.

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Toward a fast and consistent approach to model solar magnetic fields in multiple layers

Aims. We aim to develop a fast and consistent extrapolation method to model multiple layers of the solar atmosphere. Methods. The new approach combines the magnetohydrostatic (MHS) extrapolation which models the solar low atmosphere in a flat box and the nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) extrapolation which models the solar corona with a chromospheric vector magnetogram deduced from the MHS extrapolation. We test our code with a snapshot of a radiative magnetohydrodynamic simulation of a solar flare. Comparisons are conducted by several metrics quantitatively. Results. Based on a number of test runs, we find out the optimized configuration for the combination of two extrapolations with a 5.8-Mm-high box for the MHS extrapolation and a magnetogram at a height of 1 Mm for the NLFFF extrapolation. The new approach under this configuration is able to reconstruct the magnetic fields in multi-layers accurately and efficiently. Based on figures of merit that are used to assess the performance of different extrapolations (NLFFF extrapolation, MHS extrapolation, and the combined one), we find the combined extrapolation reaches accuracy of the MHS extrapolation which is better than the NLFFF extrapolation. The combined extrapolation is moderately efficient for application to magnetograms with high resolution.

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Formation of solar quiescent coronal loops through magnetic reconnection in an emerging active region

Coronal loops are building blocks of solar active regions. However, their formation mechanism is still not well understood. Here we present direct observational evidence for the formation of coronal loops through magnetic reconnection as new magnetic fluxes emerge into the solar atmosphere. Extreme-ultraviolet observations of the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) clearly show the newly formed loops following magnetic reconnection within a plasma sheet. Formation of the loops is also seen in the hα line-core images taken by the New Vacuum Solar Telescope. Observations from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager onboard SDO show that a positive-polarity flux concentration moves towards a negative-polarity one with a speed of ~0.4 km/s, before the formation of coronal loops. During the loop formation process, we found signatures of flux cancellation and subsequent enhancement of the transverse field between the two polarities. The three-dimensional magnetic field structure reconstructed through a magnetohydrostatic model shows field lines consistent with the loops in AIA images. Numerous bright blobs with an average width of 1.37 Mm appear intermittently in the plasma sheet and move upward with a projected velocity of ~114 km/s. The temperature, emission measure and density of these blobs are about 3 MK, 2.0x10^(28) cm^(-5) and 1.2x10^(10) cm^(-3), respectively. A power spectral analysis of these blobs indicates that the observed reconnection is likely not dominated by a turbulent process. We have also identified flows with a velocity of 20 to 50 km/s towards the footpoints of the newly formed coronal loops.

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An overall view of temperature oscillations in the solar chromosphere with ALMA

By direct measurements of the gas temperature, the Atacama Large Millimeter/sub-millimeter Array (ALMA) has yielded a new diagnostic tool to study the solar chromosphere. Here we present an overview of the brightness-temperature fluctuations from several high-quality and high-temporal-resolution (i.e., 1 and 2 sec cadence) time series of images obtained during the first two years of solar observations with ALMA, in Band 3 and Band 6, centred at around 3 mm (100 GHz) and 1.25 mm (239 GHz), respectively. The various datasets represent solar regions with different levels of magnetic flux. We perform Fast Fourier and Lomb-Scargle transforms to measure both the spatial structuring of dominant frequencies and the average global frequency distributions of the oscillations (i.e., averaged over the entire field of view). We find that the observed frequencies significantly vary from one dataset to another, which is discussed in terms of the solar regions captured by the observations (i.e., linked to their underlying magnetic topology). While the presence of enhanced power within the frequency range 3-5 mHz is found for the most magnetically quiescent datasets, lower frequencies dominate when there is significant influence from strong underlying magnetic field concentrations (present inside and/or in the immediate vicinity of the observed field of view). We discuss here a number of reasons which could possibly contribute to the power suppression at around 5.5 mHz in the ALMA observations. However, it remains unclear how other chromospheric diagnostics (with an exception of Halpha line-core intensity) are unaffected by similar effects, i.e., they show very pronounced 3-min oscillations dominating the dynamics of the chromosphere, whereas only a very small fraction of all the pixels in the ten ALMA data sets analysed here show peak power near 5.5 mHz.

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Preprocessing of vector magnetograms for magnetohydrostatic extrapolations

Context. Understanding the 3D magnetic field as well as the plasma in the chromosphere and transition region is important. One way is to extrapolate the magnetic field and plasma from the routinely measured vector magnetogram on the photosphere based on the assumption of the magnetohydrostatic (MHS) state. However, photospheric data may be inconsistent with the MHS assumption. Therefore, we must study the restriction on the photospheric magnetic field, which is required by the MHS system. Moreover, the data should be transformed accordingly before MHS extrapolations can be applied. Aims. We aim to obtain a set of surface integrals as criteria for the MHS system and use this set of integrals to preprocess a vector magnetogram. Methods. By applying Gauss' theorem and assuming an isolated active region on the Sun, we related the magnetic energy and forces in the volume to the surface integral on the photosphere. The same method was applied to obtain restrictions on the photospheric magnetic field as necessary criteria for a MHS system. We used an optimization method to preprocess the data to minimize the deviation from the criteria as well as the measured value. Results. By applying the virial theorem to the active region, we find the boundary integral that is used to compute the energy of a force-free field usually underestimates the magnetic energy of a large active region. We also find that the MHS assumption only requires the x-, y-component of net Lorentz force and the z-component of net torque to be zero. These zero components are part of Aly's criteria for a force-free field. However, other components of net force and torque can be non-zero values. According to new criteria, we preprocess the magnetogram to make it more consistent with the MHS system and, at the same time close, to the original data.

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Magnetohydrostatic modeling of AR11768 based on a SUNRISE/IMaX vector magnetogram

Context. High resolution magnetic field measurements are routinely done only in the solar photosphere. Higher layers like the chromosphere and corona can be modeled by extrapolating the photospheric magnetic field upward. In the solar corona, plasma forces can be neglected and the Lorentz force vanishes. This is not the case in the upper photosphere and chromosphere where magnetic and non-magnetic forces are equally important. One way to deal with this problem is to compute the plasma and magnetic field self-consistently with a magnetohydrostatic (MHS) model. Aims. We aim to derive the magnetic field, plasma pressure and density of AR11768 by applying the newly developed extrapolation technique to the SUNRISE/IMaX data. Methods. An optimization method is used for the MHS modeling. The initial conditions consist of a nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) and a gravity-stratified atmosphere. Results. In the non-force-free layer, which is spatially resolved by the new code, Lorentz forces are effectively balanced by the gas pressure gradient force and the gravity force. The pressure and density are depleted in strong field regions, which is consistent with observations. Denser plasma, however, is also observed at some parts of the active region edges. In the chromosphere, the fibril-like plasma structures trace the magnetic field nicely. Bright points in SUNRISE/SuFI 3000 {$Å$} images are often accompanied by the plasma pressure and electric current concentrations. In addition, the average of angle between MHS field lines and the selected chromospheric fibrils is $11.8^\circ$, which is smaller than those computed from the NLFFF model ($15.7^\circ$) and linear MHS model ($20.9^\circ$). This indicates that the MHS solution provides a better representation of the magnetic field in the chromosphere.

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A White-light Flare Powered by Magnetic Reconnection in the Lower Solar Atmosphere

White-light flares (WLFs), first observed in 1859, refer to a type of solar flares showing an obvious enhancement of the visible continuum emission. This type of enhancement often occurs in most energetic flares, and is usually interpreted as a consequence of efficient heating in the lower solar atmosphere through non-thermal electrons propagating downward from the energy release site in the corona. However, this coronal-reconnection model has difficulty in explaining the recently discovered small WLFs. Here we report a C2.3 white-light flare, which are associated with several observational phenomena: fast decrease in opposite-polarity photospheric magnetic fluxes, disappearance of two adjacent pores, significant heating of the lower chromosphere, negligible increase of hard X-ray flux, and an associated U-shaped magnetic field configuration. All these suggest that this white-light flare is powered by magnetic reconnection in the lower part of the solar atmosphere rather than by reconnection higher up in the corona.

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Test magnetohydrostatic extrapolation with radiative MHD simulation of a solar flare

Context. On the sun, the magnetic field vector is measured routinely only in the photosphere. By using these photospheric measurements as boundary condition, we developed the magnetohydrostatic (MHS) extrapolation to model the solar atmosphere. The model makes assumption about the relative importance of magnetic and non-magnetic forces. While the solar corona is force-free, this is not the case in photosphere and chromosphere. Aim. The model has been tested with an exact equilibria in \cite{zw18}. Here we present a more challenging and realistic test of our model with radiative MHD simulation of a solar flare. Methods. By using the optimization method, the MHS model computes self-consistently the magnetic field, plasma pressure and density. The nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) and gravity stratified atmosphere along the field line are assumed as the initial condition of the optimization. Results. Compared with NLFFF, the MHS model gives an improved magnetic field not only in magnitude and direction, but also in the magnetic connectivity. Besides, the MHS model is able to recover the main structure of the plasma in the photosphere and chromosphere.

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Solar Ultraviolet Bursts in a Coordinated Observation of IRIS, Hinode and SDO

Solar ultraviolet (UV) bursts are small-scale compact brightenings in transition region images. The spectral profiles of transition region lines in these bursts are significantly enhanced and broadened, often with chromospheric absorption lines such as Ni~{\sc{ii}} 1335.203 and 1393.330 Å superimposed. We investigate the properties of several UV bursts using a coordinated observation of the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS), Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), and \textit{Hinode} on 2015 February 7. We have identified 12 UV bursts, and 11 of them reveal small blueshifts of the Ni~{\sc{ii}} absorption lines. However, the Ni~{\sc{ii}} lines in one UV burst exhibit obvious redshifts of $\sim$20 km s$^{-1}$, which appear to be related to the cold plasma downflows observed in the IRIS slit-jaw images. We also examine the three-dimensional magnetic field topology using a magnetohydrostatic model, and find that some UV bursts are associated with magnetic null points or bald patches. In addition, we find that these UV bursts reveal no obvious coronal signatures from the observations of the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on board SDO and the EUV Imaging Spectrometer (EIS) on board \textit{Hinode}.

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Generalisation of the Magnetic Field Configuration of typical and atypical Confined Flares

Atypical flares cannot be naturally explained with standard models. To predict such flares, we need to define their physical characteristics, in particular, their magnetic environment, and identify pairs of reconnected loops. Here, we present in detail a case-study of a confined flare preceded by flux cancellation that leads to the formation of a filament. The slow rise of the non-eruptive filament favours the growth and reconnection of overlying loops. The flare is only of C5.0 class but it is a long duration event. The reason is that it is comprised of three successive stages of reconnection. A non-linear force-free field extrapolation and a magnetic topology analysis allow us to identify the loops involved in the reconnection process and build a reliable scenario for this atypical confined flare. The main result is that a curved magnetic polarity inversion line in active regions is a key ingredient for producing such atypical flares. A comparison with previous extrapolations for typical and atypical confined flares leads us to propose a cartoon for generalizing the concept

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On the extrapolation of magneto-hydro-static equilibria on the sun

Modeling the interface region between solar photosphere and corona is challenging, because the relative importance of magnetic and plasma forces change by several orders of magnitude. While the solar corona can be modeled by the force-free assumption, we need to take care about plasma forces (pressure gradient and gravity) in photosphere and chromosphere, here within the magneto-hydro-static (MHS) model. We solve the MHS equations with the help of an optimization principle and use vector magnetogram as boundary condition. Positive pressure and density are ensured by replacing them with two new basic variables. The Lorentz force during optimization is used to update the plasma pressure on the bottom boundary, which makes the new extrapolation works even without pressure measurement on the photosphere. Our code is tested by using a linear MHS model as reference. From the detailed analyses, we find that the newly developed MHS extrapolation recovers the reference model at high accuracy. The MHS extrapolation is, however, numerically more expensive than the nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) extrapolation and consequently one should limit their application to regions where plasma forces become important, e.g. in a layer of about 2 Mm above the photosphere.

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