arXiv subjects

Xiaosong Chen

Publications and source records attributed to Xiaosong Chen.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

An inevitably aging world -- Analysis on the evolutionary pattern of age structure in 200 countries

Ignoring the differences between countries, human reproductive and dispersal behaviors can be described by some standardized models, so whether there is a universal law of population growth hidden in the abundant and unstructured data from various countries remains unclear. The age-specific population data constitute a three-dimensional tensor containing more comprehensive information. The existing literature often describes the characteristics of global or regional population evolution by subregion aggregation and statistical analysis, which makes it challenging to identify the underlying rules by ignoring national or structural details. Statistical physics can be used to summarize the macro characteristics and evolution laws of complex systems based on the attributes and motions of masses of individuals by decomposing high-dimensional tensors. Specifically, it can be used to assess the evolution of age structure in various countries over the past approximately 70 years, rather than simply focusing on the regions where aging has become apparent. It provides a universal scheme for the growing elderly and working age populations, indicating that the demographics on all continents are inevitably moving towards an aging population, including the current "young" continents of Africa, and Asia, South America with a recent "demographic dividend". It is a force derived from the "life cycle", and most countries have been unable to avoid this universal evolutionary path in the foreseeable future.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Eigenstates in the self-organised criticality

We employ the eigen microstate approach to explore the self-organized criticality (SOC) in two celebrated sandpile models, namely, the BTW model and the Manna model. In both models, phase transitions from the absorbing-state to the critical state can be understood by the emergence of dominant eigen microstates with significantly increased weights. Spatial eigen microstates of avalanches can be uniformly characterized by a linear system size rescaling. The first temporal eigen microstates reveal scaling relations in both models. Furthermore, by finite-size scaling analysis of the first eigen microstate, we numerically estimate critical exponents i.e., $\sqrt{σ_0 w_1}/\tilde{v}_{1} \propto L^D$ and $\tilde{v}_{1} \propto L^{D(1-τ_s)/2}$. Our findings could provide profound insights into eigen states of the universality and phase transition in non-equilibrium complex systems governed by self-organized criticality.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Regional Greening as a `Positive' Tipping Phenomenon

Earth system tipping elements have been predominantly investigated for their potential to trigger \textit{negative} ecological, climatic, and societal shifts. Yet, an overlooked but seminal avenue exists in the form of \textit{positive} tipping phenomena, whose underlying mechanisms and benefits remain largely underexplored. To bridge this gap, our research introduces a fundamental percolation-based framework to assess the criticality and resilience of planetary terrestrial vegetation systems. Leveraging high-resolution satellite data, we focus on greening-induced positive tipping dynamics driven by global warming. We feature the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) and the Sahel region as contrasting yet analogous case studies. Our analysis uncovers an intriguing phenomenon where vegetation fragmentation aligns with a percolation threshold, exhibiting a scale-invariant pattern characterized by nearly perfect power laws with three critical exponents. Remarkably, contrary to conventional destructive tipping elements, these regions act as favorable tipping elements, transitioning from fragmented to cohesive vegetation patterns due to anthropogenic climate change and afforestation efforts. Furthermore, we propose an \textit{optimal resilience enhancement model} to reinforce vegetation robustness while minimizing socio-economic costs. This study provides valuable insights into the favorable aspects of tipping elements under climate change and offers effective strategies for enhancing ecological resilience against environmental threats.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2023

The Critical Behavior of Quantum Stirling Heat Engine

We investigate the performance of a Stirling cycle with a working substance (WS) modeled as the quantum Rabi model (QRM), exploring the impact of criticality on its efficiency. Our findings indicate that the criticality of the QRM has a positive effect on improving the efficiency of the Stirling cycle. Furthermore, we observe that the Carnot efficiency is asymptotically achievable as the WS parameter approaches the critical point, even when both the temperatures of the cold and hot reservoirs are finite. Additionally, we derive the critical behavior for the efficiency of the Stirling cycle, demonstrating how the efficiency asymptotically approaches the Carnot efficiency as the WS parameter approaches the critical point. Our work deepens the understanding of the impact of criticality on the performance of a Stirling heat engine.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2022

Machine learning phases of active matter

Recent years have witnessed a growing interest in using machine learning to predict and identify phase transitions in various systems. Here we adopt convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to study the phase transitions of Vicsek model, solving the problem that traditional order parameters are insufficiently able to do. Within the large-scale simulations, there are four phases, and we confirm that all the phase transitions between two neighboring phases are first-order. We have successfully classified the phase by using CNNs with a high accuracy and identified the phase transition points, while traditional approaches using various order parameters fail to obtain. These results indicate that the great potential of machine learning approach in understanding the complexities in collective behaviors, and in related complex systems in general.

physics.bio-ph↗

arXiv2022

Teleconnections among Tipping Elements in the Earth System

Tipping elements of the Earth system may shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another at tipping points, resulting in a growing threat to our society. Yet, it is not fully clear how to assess and quantify the influence of a tipping element and how to explore the teleconnections between different tipping elements. To fill this knowledge gap, we propose a climate network approach to quantitatively analyze the global impacts of a prominent tipping element, the Amazon Rainforest Area (ARA). We find that regions, such as, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and West Antarctic ice sheet, are characterized by higher network weighted links and exhibit strong correlations with the ARA. We then identify a teleconnection propagation path between the ARA and the TP. This path is robust under climate change as simulated by various climate models of CMIP5 and CMIP6. In addition, we detect early warning signals for critical transition in the snow cover extent on the Tibetan Plateau by applying critical slowing down indicators, lag-1 autocorrelation and detrended fluctuation analysis. We find that the snow cover of the TP has been losing stability since 2008, revealing that the TP is operating like a tipping element and approaching a potential tipping point. We further uncover that various climate extremes between the ARA and the TP are significantly synchronized under climate change. Our framework provides new insights into how tipping elements are linked to each other and into the potential predictability of cascading tipping dynamics.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Emergence of universal scaling in weather extreme events

The frequency and magnitude of weather extreme events have increased significantly during the past few years in response to anthropogenic climate change. However, global statistical characteristics and underlying physical mechanisms are still not fully understood. Here, we adopt a statistical physics and probability theory based method to investigate the nature of extreme weather events, particularly the statistics of the day-to-day air temperature differences. These statistical measurements reveal that the distributions of the magnitudes of the extreme events satisfy a universal \textit{Gumbel} distribution, while the waiting time of those extreme events is governed by a universal \textit{Gamma} function. Further finite-size effects analysis indicates robust scaling behaviours. We additionally unveil that the cumulative distribution of logarithmic waiting times between the record events follows an \textit{Exponential} distribution and that the evolution of this climate system is directional where the underlying dynamics are related to a decelerating release of tension. The universal scaling laws are remarkably stable and unaffected by global warming. Counterintuitively, unlike as expected for record dynamics, we find that the number of quakes of the extreme temperature variability does not decay as one over time but with deviations relevant to large-scale climate extreme events. Our theoretical framework provides a fresh perspective on the linkage of universality, scaling, and climate systems. The findings throw light on the nature of the weather variabilities and could guide us to better forecast extreme events.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2021

Eigen Microstates and Their Evolution of Global Ozone at Different Geopotential Heights

Studies on stratospheric ozone have attracted much attention due to its serious impacts on climate changes and its important role as a tracer of Earth's global circulation. Tropospheric ozone as a main atmospheric pollutant damages human health as well as the growth of vegetation. Yet there is still a lack of a theoretical framework to fully describe the variation of ozone. To understand ozone's spatiotemporal variance, we introduce the eigen microstate method to analyze the global ozone mass mixing ratio (OMMR) between 1979-01-01 and 2020-06-30 at 37 pressure layers. We find that eigen microstates at different geopotential heights can capture different climate phenomena and modes. Without deseasonalization, the first eigen microstates capture the seasonal effect and reveal that the phase of the intra-annual cycle moves with the geopotential heights. After deseasonalization, by contrast, the collective patterns from the overall trend, ENSO, QBO, and tropopause pressure are identified by the first few significant eigen microstates. The theoretical framework proposed here can also be applied to other complex Earth systems.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2020

Statistical physics approaches to the complex Earth system

Global climate change, extreme climate events, earthquakes and their accompanying natural disasters pose significant risks to humanity. Yet due to the nonlinear feedbacks, strategic interactions and complex structure of the Earth system, the understanding and in particular the predicting of such disruptive events represent formidable challenges for both scientific and policy communities. During the past years, the emergence and evolution of Earth system science has attracted much attention and produced new concepts and frameworks. Especially, novel statistical physics and complex networks-based techniques have been developed and implemented to substantially advance our knowledge for a better understanding of the Earth system, including climate extreme events, earthquakes and Earth geometric relief features, leading to substantially improved predictive performances. We present here a comprehensive review on the recent scientific progress in the development and application of how combined statistical physics and complex systems science approaches such as, critical phenomena, network theory, percolation, tipping points analysis, as well as entropy can be applied to complex Earth systems (climate, earthquakes, etc.). Notably, these integrating tools and approaches provide new insights and perspectives for understanding the dynamics of the Earth systems. The overall aim of this review is to offer readers the knowledge on how statistical physics approaches can be useful in the field of Earth system science.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Network-based Approach and Climate Change Benefits for Forecasting the Amount of Indian Monsoon Rainfall

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) has a decisive influence on India's agricultural output and economy. Extreme deviations from the normal seasonal amount of rainfall can cause severe droughts or floods, affecting Indian food production and security. Despite the development of sophisticated statistical and dynamical climate models, a long-term and reliable prediction of the ISMR has remained a challenging problem. Towards achieving this goal, here we construct a series of dynamical and physical climate networks based on the global near surface air temperature field. We uncover that some characteristics of the directed and weighted climate networks can serve as efficient long-term predictors for ISMR forecasting. The developed prediction method produces a forecast skill of 0.5 with a 5-month lead-time in advance by using the previous calendar year's data. The skill of our ISMR forecast, is comparable to the current state-of-the-art models, however, with quite a short (i.e., within one month) lead-time. We discuss the underlying mechanism of our predictor and associate it with network-delayed-ENSO and ENSO-monsoon connections. Moreover, our approach allows predicting the all India rainfall, as well as forecasting the different Indian homogeneous regions' rainfall, which is crucial for agriculture in India. We reveal that global warming affects the climate network by enhancing cross-equatorial teleconnections between Southwest Atlantic, Western part of the Indian Ocean, and North Asia-Pacific with significant impacts on the precipitation in India. We find a hotspots area in the mid-latitude South Atlantic, which is the basis for our predictor. Remarkably, the significant warming trend in this area yields an improvement of the prediction skill.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2020

Intra-annual Principal Modes and Evolution Mechanism of the El Nino Southern Oscillation

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important phenomena in climate. By studying the fluctuations of surface air temperature within one year between 1979-01-01 and 2016-12-31 of the region (30S-30N, 0E-360E) with eigen-decomposition, we find that the temperature fluctuations are dominated by the two principal modes whose temporal evolutions respond significantly to the ENSO variability. According to introduce a micro-correlation, we find that the coupling between the first principal mode and the temperature fluctuations in the El Nino region could result in different ENSO phases. Without this coupling, the El Nino region is in a normal phase. With the strong coupling between the El Nino region and the Northern Hemisphere, an El Nino event will appear with a high probability. Then this coupling changes to be strong between the El Nino region and the Southern Hemisphere accounting for the fast decay of El Nino after boreal winter, even leading to a La Nina event. Moreover, the coupling between the El Nino region and the second principal mode is found to be strong in normal or La Nina phases in response to the normal or strong Walker Circulations. We conjecture that the temporal evolutions of these couplings for the first and second principal modes are controlled by the meridional and zonal ocean-atmospheric circulations respectively.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2019

Complexity based approach for El Nino magnitude forecasting before the "spring predictability barrier"

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most prominent interannual climate phenomena. An early and reliable ENSO forecasting remains a crucial goal, due to its serious implications for economy, society, and ecosystem. Despite the development of various dynamical and statistical prediction models in the recent decades, the ``spring predictability barrier'' (SPB) remains a great challenge for long (over 6-month) lead-time forecasting. To overcome this barrier, here we develop an analysis tool, the System Sample Entropy (SysSampEn), to measure the complexity (disorder) of the system composed of temperature anomaly time series in the Nino 3.4 region. When applying this tool to several near surface air-temperature and sea surface temperature datasets, we find that in all datasets a strong positive correlation exists between the magnitude of El Nino and the previous calendar year's SysSampEn (complexity). We show that this correlation allows to forecast the magnitude of an El Nino with a prediction horizon of 1 year and high accuracy (i.e., Root Mean Square Error $=0.23^\circ C$ for the average of the individual datasets forecasts). For the on-going 2018 El Nino event, our method forecasts a weak El Nino with a magnitude of $1.11\pm 0.23^\circ C$. Our framework presented here not only facilitates a long--term forecasting of the El Nino magnitude but can potentially also be used as a measure for the complexity of other natural or engineering complex systems.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2019

Significant Impact of Rossby Waves on Air Pollution Detected by Network Analysis

Air pollution is associated with human diseases and has been found to be related to premature mortality. In response, environmental policies have been adopted in many countries, to decrease anthropogenic air pollution for the improvement of long-term air quality, since most air pollutant sources are anthropogenic. However, air pollution fluctuations have been found to strongly depend on the weather dynamics. This raises a fundamental question: What are the significant atmospheric processes that affect the local daily variability of air pollution? For this purpose, we develop here a multi-layered network analysis to detect the interlinks between the geopotential height of the upper air (~5 km) and surface air pollution in both China and the USA. We find that Rossby waves significantly affect air pollution fluctuations through the development of cyclone and anticyclone systems, and further affect the local stability of the air and the winds. The significant impacts of Rossby waves on air pollution are found to underlie most of the daily fluctuations in air pollution. Thus, the impact of Rossby waves on human life is greater than previously assumed. The rapid warming of the Arctic could slow down Rossby waves, thus increasing human health risks. Our method can help to determine the risk assessment of such extreme events and can improve potential predictability.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2018

Condensation of Eigen Microstate in Statistical Ensemble and Phase Transition

In a statistical ensemble with $M$ microstates, we introduce an $M \times M$ correlation matrix with the correlations between microstates as its elements. Using eigenvectors of the correlation matrix, we can define eigen microstates of the ensemble. The normalized eigenvalue by $M$ represents the weight factor in the ensemble of the corresponding eigen microstate. In the limit $M \to \infty$, weight factors go to zero in the ensemble without localization of microstate. The finite limit of weight factor when $M \to \infty$ indicates a condensation of the corresponding eigen microstate. This indicates a phase transition with new phase characterized by the condensed eigen microstate. We propose a finite-size scaling relation of weight factors near critical point, which can be used to identify the phase transition and its universality class of general complex systems. The condensation of eigen microstate and the finite-size scaling relation of weight factors have been confirmed by the Monte Carlo data of one-dimensional and two-dimensional Ising models.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2018

Resilience of spatial networks with inter-links behaving as an external field

Many real systems such as, roads, shipping routes, and infrastructure systems can be modeled based on spatially embedded networks. The inter-links between two distant spatial networks, such as those formed by transcontinental airline flights, play a crucial role in optimizing communication and transportation over such long distances. Still, little is known about how inter-links affect the resilience of such systems. Here, we develop a framework to study the resilience of interlinked spatially embedded networks based on percolation theory. We find that the inter-links can be regarded as an external field near the percolation phase transition, analogous to a magnetic field in a ferromagnetic-paramagnetic spin system. By defining the analogous critical exponents $δ$ and $γ$, we find that their values for various inter-links structures follow Widom's scaling relations. Furthermore, we study the optimal robustness of our model and compare it with the analysis of real-world networks. The framework presented here not only facilitates the understanding of phase transitions with external fields in complex networks but also provides insight into optimizing real-world infrastructure networks and a magnetic field in a management.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Finite- Size Scaling of Correlation Function

We propose the finite-size scaling of correlation function in a finite system near its critical point. At a distance ${\bf r}$ in the finite system with size $L$, the correlation function can be written as the product of $|{\bf r}|^{-(d-2+η)}$ and its finite-size scaling function of variables ${\bf r}/L$ and $tL^{1/ν}$, where $t=(T-T_c)/T_c$. The directional dependence of correlation function is nonnegligible only when $|{\bf r}|$ becomes compariable with $L$. This finite-size scaling of correlation function has been confirmed by correlation functions of the Ising model and the bond percolation in two-diemnional lattices, which are calculated by Monte Carlo simulation. We can use the finite-size scaling of correlation function to determine the critical point and the critical exponent $η$.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2018

Resilience of networks with community structure behaves as if under an external field

Detecting and characterizing community structure plays a crucial role in the study of networked systems. However, there is still a lack of understanding of how community structure affects the systems' resilience and stability. Here, we develop a framework to study the resilience of networks with community structure based on percolation theory. We find both analytically and numerically that the interlinks (connections between the communities) affect the percolation phase transition in a manner similar to an external field in a ferromagnetic-paramagnetic spin system. We also study the universality class by defining the analogous critical exponents $δ$ and $γ$, and find that their values for various models and in real-world co-authors networks follow fundamental scaling relations as in physical phase transitions. The methodology and results presented here not only facilitate the study of resilience of networks but also brings a fresh perspective to the understanding of phase transitions under external fields.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Correlation and scaling behaviors of $PM_{2.5}$ concentration in China

Air pollution has become a major issue and caused widespread environmental and health problems. Aerosols or particulate matters are an important component of the atmosphere and can transport under complex meteorological conditions. Based on the data of $PM_{2.5}$ observations, we develop a network approach to study and quantify their spreading and diffusion patterns. We calculate cross-correlation functions of time lag between sites within different season. The probability distribution of correlation changes with season. It is found that the probability distributions in four seasons can be scaled into one scaling function with averages and standard deviations of correlation. This seasonal scaling behavior indicates there is the same mechanism behind correlations of $PM_{2.5}$ concentration in different seasons. Further, from weighted and directional degrees of complex network, different properties of $PM_{2.5}$ concentration are studied. The weighted degrees reveal the strongest correlations of $PM_{2.5}$ concentration in winter and in the North China plain. These directional degrees show net influences of $PM_{2.5}$ along Gobi and inner Mongolia, the North China plain, Central China, and Yangtze River Delta.

physics.ao-ph↗