arXiv subjects

Xiaowen Dong

Publications and source records attributed to Xiaowen Dong.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Neural Latent Geometry Search: Product Manifold Inference via Gromov-Hausdorff-Informed Bayesian Optimization

Recent research indicates that the performance of machine learning models can be improved by aligning the geometry of the latent space with the underlying data structure. Rather than relying solely on Euclidean space, researchers have proposed using hyperbolic and spherical spaces with constant curvature, or combinations thereof, to better model the latent space and enhance model performance. However, little attention has been given to the problem of automatically identifying the optimal latent geometry for the downstream task. We mathematically define this novel formulation and coin it as neural latent geometry search (NLGS). More specifically, we introduce an initial attempt to search for a latent geometry composed of a product of constant curvature model spaces with a small number of query evaluations, under some simplifying assumptions. To accomplish this, we propose a novel notion of distance between candidate latent geometries based on the Gromov-Hausdorff distance from metric geometry. In order to compute the Gromov-Hausdorff distance, we introduce a mapping function that enables the comparison of different manifolds by embedding them in a common high-dimensional ambient space. We then design a graph search space based on the notion of smoothness between latent geometries and employ the calculated distances as an additional inductive bias. Finally, we use Bayesian optimization to search for the optimal latent geometry in a query-efficient manner. This is a general method which can be applied to search for the optimal latent geometry for a variety of models and downstream tasks. We perform experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets to identify the optimal latent geometry for multiple machine learning problems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Gromov-Hausdorff Distances for Comparing Product Manifolds of Model Spaces

Recent studies propose enhancing machine learning models by aligning the geometric characteristics of the latent space with the underlying data structure. Instead of relying solely on Euclidean space, researchers have suggested using hyperbolic and spherical spaces with constant curvature, or their combinations (known as product manifolds), to improve model performance. However, there exists no principled technique to determine the best latent product manifold signature, which refers to the choice and dimensionality of manifold components. To address this, we introduce a novel notion of distance between candidate latent geometries using the Gromov-Hausdorff distance from metric geometry. We propose using a graph search space that uses the estimated Gromov-Hausdorff distances to search for the optimal latent geometry. In this work we focus on providing a description of an algorithm to compute the Gromov-Hausdorff distance between model spaces and its computational implementation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Learning to Learn Financial Networks for Optimising Momentum Strategies

Network momentum provides a novel type of risk premium, which exploits the interconnections among assets in a financial network to predict future returns. However, the current process of constructing financial networks relies heavily on expensive databases and financial expertise, limiting accessibility for small-sized and academic institutions. Furthermore, the traditional approach treats network construction and portfolio optimisation as separate tasks, potentially hindering optimal portfolio performance. To address these challenges, we propose L2GMOM, an end-to-end machine learning framework that simultaneously learns financial networks and optimises trading signals for network momentum strategies. The model of L2GMOM is a neural network with a highly interpretable forward propagation architecture, which is derived from algorithm unrolling. The L2GMOM is flexible and can be trained with diverse loss functions for portfolio performance, e.g. the negative Sharpe ratio. Backtesting on 64 continuous future contracts demonstrates a significant improvement in portfolio profitability and risk control, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.74 across a 20-year period.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2023

Network Momentum across Asset Classes

We investigate the concept of network momentum, a novel trading signal derived from momentum spillover across assets. Initially observed within the confines of pairwise economic and fundamental ties, such as the stock-bond connection of the same company and stocks linked through supply-demand chains, momentum spillover implies a propagation of momentum risk premium from one asset to another. The similarity of momentum risk premium, exemplified by co-movement patterns, has been spotted across multiple asset classes including commodities, equities, bonds and currencies. However, studying the network effect of momentum spillover across these classes has been challenging due to a lack of readily available common characteristics or economic ties beyond the company level. In this paper, we explore the interconnections of momentum features across a diverse range of 64 continuous future contracts spanning these four classes. We utilise a linear and interpretable graph learning model with minimal assumptions to reveal the intricacies of the momentum spillover network. By leveraging the learned networks, we construct a network momentum strategy that exhibits a Sharpe ratio of 1.5 and an annual return of 22%, after volatility scaling, from 2000 to 2022. This paper pioneers the examination of momentum spillover across multiple asset classes using only pricing data, presents a multi-asset investment strategy based on network momentum, and underscores the effectiveness of this strategy through robust empirical analysis.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2023

Wisdom of the Crowds or Ignorance of the Masses? A data-driven guide to WSB

A trite yet fundamental question in economics is: What causes large asset price fluctuations? A tenfold rise in the price of GameStop equity, between the 22nd and 28th of January 2021, demonstrated that herding behaviour among retail investors is an important contributing factor. This paper presents a data-driven guide to the forum that started the hype -- WallStreetBets (WSB). Our initial experiments decompose the forum using a large language topic model and network tools. The topic model describes the evolution of the forum over time and shows the persistence of certain topics (such as the market / S\&P500 discussion), and the sporadic interest in others, such as COVID or crude oil. Network analysis allows us to decompose the landscape of retail investors into clusters based on their posting and discussion habits; several large, correlated asset discussion clusters emerge, surrounded by smaller, niche ones. A second set of experiments assesses the impact that WSB discussions have had on the market. We show that forum activity has a Granger-causal relationship with the returns of several assets, some of which are now commonly classified as `meme stocks', while others have gone under the radar. The paper extracts a set of short-term trade signals from posts and long-term (monthly and weekly) trade signals from forum dynamics, and considers their predictive power at different time horizons. In addition to the analysis, the paper presents the dataset, as well as an interactive dashboard, in order to promote further research.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2023

Graph Neural Networks for Forecasting Multivariate Realized Volatility with Spillover Effects

We present a novel methodology for modeling and forecasting multivariate realized volatilities using customized graph neural networks to incorporate spillover effects across stocks. The proposed model offers the benefits of incorporating spillover effects from multi-hop neighbors, capturing nonlinear relationships, and flexible training with different loss functions. Our empirical findings provide compelling evidence that incorporating spillover effects from multi-hop neighbors alone does not yield a clear advantage in terms of predictive accuracy. However, modeling nonlinear spillover effects enhances the forecasting accuracy of realized volatilities, particularly for short-term horizons of up to one week. Moreover, our results consistently indicate that training with the Quasi-likelihood loss leads to substantial improvements in model performance compared to the commonly-used mean squared error. A comprehensive series of empirical evaluations in alternative settings confirm the robustness of our results.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2023

On the Impact of Sample Size in Reconstructing Graph Signals

Reconstructing a signal on a graph from observations on a subset of the vertices is a fundamental problem in the field of graph signal processing. It is often assumed that adding additional observations to an observation set will reduce the expected reconstruction error. We show that under the setting of noisy observation and least-squares reconstruction this is not always the case, characterising the behaviour both theoretically and experimentally.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2023

Structure-Aware Robustness Certificates for Graph Classification

Certifying the robustness of a graph-based machine learning model poses a critical challenge for safety. Current robustness certificates for graph classifiers guarantee output invariance with respect to the total number of node pair flips (edge addition or edge deletion), which amounts to an $l_{0}$ ball centred on the adjacency matrix. Although theoretically attractive, this type of isotropic structural noise can be too restrictive in practical scenarios where some node pairs are more critical than others in determining the classifier's output. The certificate, in this case, gives a pessimistic depiction of the robustness of the graph model. To tackle this issue, we develop a randomised smoothing method based on adding an anisotropic noise distribution to the input graph structure. We show that our process generates structural-aware certificates for our classifiers, whereby the magnitude of robustness certificates can vary across different pre-defined structures of the graph. We demonstrate the benefits of these certificates in both synthetic and real-world experiments.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Unrolled Graph Learning for Multi-Agent Collaboration

Multi-agent learning has gained increasing attention to tackle distributed machine learning scenarios under constrictions of data exchanging. However, existing multi-agent learning models usually consider data fusion under fixed and compulsory collaborative relations among agents, which is not as flexible and autonomous as human collaboration. To fill this gap, we propose a distributed multi-agent learning model inspired by human collaboration, in which the agents can autonomously detect suitable collaborators and refer to collaborators' model for better performance. To implement such adaptive collaboration, we use a collaboration graph to indicate the pairwise collaborative relation. The collaboration graph can be obtained by graph learning techniques based on model similarity between different agents. Since model similarity can not be formulated by a fixed graphical optimization, we design a graph learning network by unrolling, which can learn underlying similar features among potential collaborators. By testing on both regression and classification tasks, we validate that our proposed collaboration model can figure out accurate collaborative relationship and greatly improve agents' learning performance.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Graph Classification Gaussian Processes via Spectral Features

Graph classification aims to categorise graphs based on their structure and node attributes. In this work, we propose to tackle this task using tools from graph signal processing by deriving spectral features, which we then use to design two variants of Gaussian process models for graph classification. The first variant uses spectral features based on the distribution of energy of a node feature signal over the spectrum of the graph. We show that even such a simple approach, having no learned parameters, can yield competitive performance compared to strong neural network and graph kernel baselines. A second, more sophisticated variant is designed to capture multi-scale and localised patterns in the graph by learning spectral graph wavelet filters, obtaining improved performance on synthetic and real-world data sets. Finally, we show that both models produce well calibrated uncertainty estimates, enabling reliable decision making based on the model predictions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

DRew: Dynamically Rewired Message Passing with Delay

Message passing neural networks (MPNNs) have been shown to suffer from the phenomenon of over-squashing that causes poor performance for tasks relying on long-range interactions. This can be largely attributed to message passing only occurring locally, over a node's immediate neighbours. Rewiring approaches attempting to make graphs 'more connected', and supposedly better suited to long-range tasks, often lose the inductive bias provided by distance on the graph since they make distant nodes communicate instantly at every layer. In this paper we propose a framework, applicable to any MPNN architecture, that performs a layer-dependent rewiring to ensure gradual densification of the graph. We also propose a delay mechanism that permits skip connections between nodes depending on the layer and their mutual distance. We validate our approach on several long-range tasks and show that it outperforms graph Transformers and multi-hop MPNNs.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Modeling Ideological Salience and Framing in Polarized Online Groups with Graph Neural Networks and Structured Sparsity

The increasing polarization of online political discourse calls for computational tools that automatically detect and monitor ideological divides in social media. We introduce a minimally supervised method that leverages the network structure of online discussion forums, specifically Reddit, to detect polarized concepts. We model polarization along the dimensions of salience and framing, drawing upon insights from moral psychology. Our architecture combines graph neural networks with structured sparsity learning and results in representations for concepts and subreddits that capture temporal ideological dynamics such as right-wing and left-wing radicalization.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2022

Understanding stock market instability via graph auto-encoders

Understanding stock market instability is a key question in financial management as practitioners seek to forecast breakdowns in asset co-movements which expose portfolios to rapid and devastating collapses in value. The structure of these co-movements can be described as a graph where companies are represented by nodes and edges capture correlations between their price movements. Learning a timely indicator of co-movement breakdowns (manifested as modifications in the graph structure) is central in understanding both financial stability and volatility forecasting. We propose to use the edge reconstruction accuracy of a graph auto-encoder (GAE) as an indicator for how spatially homogeneous connections between assets are, which, based on financial network literature, we use as a proxy to infer market volatility. Our experiments on the S&P 500 over the 2015-2022 period show that higher GAE reconstruction error values are correlated with higher volatility. We also show that out-of-sample autoregressive modeling of volatility is improved by the addition of the proposed measure. Our paper contributes to the literature of machine learning in finance particularly in the context of understanding stock market instability.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2022

Transductive Kernels for Gaussian Processes on Graphs

Kernels on graphs have had limited options for node-level problems. To address this, we present a novel, generalized kernel for graphs with node feature data for semi-supervised learning. The kernel is derived from a regularization framework by treating the graph and feature data as two Hilbert spaces. We also show how numerous kernel-based models on graphs are instances of our design. A kernel defined this way has transductive properties, and this leads to improved ability to learn on fewer training points, as well as better handling of highly non-Euclidean data. We demonstrate these advantages using synthetic data where the distribution of the whole graph can inform the pattern of the labels. Finally, by utilizing a flexible polynomial of the graph Laplacian within the kernel, the model also performed effectively in semi-supervised classification on graphs of various levels of homophily.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Learning to Infer Structures of Network Games

Strategic interactions between a group of individuals or organisations can be modelled as games played on networks, where a player's payoff depends not only on their actions but also on those of their neighbours. Inferring the network structure from observed game outcomes (equilibrium actions) is an important problem with numerous potential applications in economics and social sciences. Existing methods mostly require the knowledge of the utility function associated with the game, which is often unrealistic to obtain in real-world scenarios. We adopt a transformer-like architecture which correctly accounts for the symmetries of the problem and learns a mapping from the equilibrium actions to the network structure of the game without explicit knowledge of the utility function. We test our method on three different types of network games using both synthetic and real-world data, and demonstrate its effectiveness in network structure inference and superior performance over existing methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Behavioral changes during the pandemic worsened income diversity of urban encounters

Diversity of physical encounters and social interactions in urban environments are known to spur economic productivity and innovation in cities, while also to foster social capital and resilience of communities. However, mobility restrictions during the pandemic have forced people to substantially reduce urban physical encounters, raising questions on the social implications of such behavioral changes. In this paper, we study how the income diversity of urban encounters have changed during different periods throughout the pandemic, using a large-scale, privacy-enhanced mobility dataset of more than one million anonymized mobile phone users in four large US cities, collected across three years spanning before and during the pandemic. We find that the diversity of urban encounters have substantially decreased (by 15% to 30%) during the pandemic and has persisted through late 2021, even though aggregated mobility metrics have recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Counterfactual analyses show that while the reduction of outside activities (higher rates of staying at home) was a major factor that contributed to decreased diversity in the early stages of the pandemic, behavioral changes including lower willingness to explore new places and changes in visitation preferences further worsened the long-term diversity of encounters. Our findings suggest that the pandemic could have long-lasting negative effects on urban income diversity, and provide implications for managing the trade-off between the stringency of COVID-19 policies and the diversity of urban encounters as we move beyond the pandemic.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

On the Unreasonable Effectiveness of Feature propagation in Learning on Graphs with Missing Node Features

While Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have recently become the de facto standard for modeling relational data, they impose a strong assumption on the availability of the node or edge features of the graph. In many real-world applications, however, features are only partially available; for example, in social networks, age and gender are available only for a small subset of users. We present a general approach for handling missing features in graph machine learning applications that is based on minimization of the Dirichlet energy and leads to a diffusion-type differential equation on the graph. The discretization of this equation produces a simple, fast and scalable algorithm which we call Feature Propagation. We experimentally show that the proposed approach outperforms previous methods on seven common node-classification benchmarks and can withstand surprisingly high rates of missing features: on average we observe only around 4% relative accuracy drop when 99% of the features are missing. Moreover, it takes only 10 seconds to run on a graph with $\sim$2.5M nodes and $\sim$123M edges on a single GPU.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Graph similarity learning for change-point detection in dynamic networks

Dynamic networks are ubiquitous for modelling sequential graph-structured data, e.g., brain connectome, population flows and messages exchanges. In this work, we consider dynamic networks that are temporal sequences of graph snapshots, and aim at detecting abrupt changes in their structure. This task is often termed network change-point detection and has numerous applications, such as fraud detection or physical motion monitoring. Leveraging a graph neural network model, we design a method to perform online network change-point detection that can adapt to the specific network domain and localise changes with no delay. The main novelty of our method is to use a siamese graph neural network architecture for learning a data-driven graph similarity function, which allows to effectively compare the current graph and its recent history. Importantly, our method does not require prior knowledge on the network generative distribution and is agnostic to the type of change-points; moreover, it can be applied to a large variety of networks, that include for instance edge weights and node attributes. We show on synthetic and real data that our method enjoys a number of benefits: it is able to learn an adequate graph similarity function for performing online network change-point detection in diverse types of change-point settings, and requires a shorter data history to detect changes than most existing state-of-the-art baselines.

stat.ML↗