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Xin Qiu

Publications and source records attributed to Xin Qiu.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

The Evolution Strategies Paradox: Better Models from Worse Perturbations

How is it possible for perturbation-based methods like Evolution Strategies (ES) to optimize billion-parameter large language models (LLMs)? Classical search methods are highly dependent on finding good candidates within generated populations. However, when using ES to fine-tune LLMs, a phenomenon can occur where all offspring models consistently perform worse than the parent model, yet during training, the parent model consistently improves. This paradox occurs across models, tasks, and even modalities. This paper characterizes the paradox, then examines how the local reward landscape and properties of the ES estimator contribute to it: in high-dimensional spaces, exploration leads to worse performance, yet still highlights good directions; aggregating those directions then allows for making local improvements. The result can be seen as a new optimization paradigm where a principled interaction of noise and curvature produces the paradox as a byproduct of effective optimization. These findings provide guidance for taking advantage of perturbation-based methods in LLM fine-tuning and in high-dimensional optimization in general.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Perceive, Solve, Reason: Progressive Capability Formation in Time Series-LLMs

Large language models (LLMs) can now perceive, describe, and reason about images and audio, yet time series understanding remains underestimated: most work uses LLMs as forecasters and classifiers, reasoning studies are few and narrow, and no suite trains and evaluates the full range of capabilities. In this paper, we build the first such suite, with 337K training and 44K evaluation samples across three progressive capabilities, Perceive, Solve, and Reason, and use it to ask how time series should enter an LLM that must master all three, and in what order. We find that a dedicated encoder is essential: with one, a 4B model surpasses GPT-4o on every perception attribute we test, whereas textualizing the series costs 8--10 points in reasoning accuracy. The capabilities then build on one another: learning them in order beats mixing the same data and rivals reasoning-only training with over three times the reasoning data, but only when an encoder is used. Analyses further reveal that capabilities are transferred through distinct network depths rather than simply stacked, and that a stage converged on its own benchmark is not necessarily ready for the next. Distilled into a simple recipe, these findings yield 4B TS-LLMs that, without any target-domain data, outperform four recent 7B TS-LLMs on seven of eight out-of-domain metrics, by up to 11 points. We therefore advocate treating time series as a first-class modality for LLMs, read through dedicated encoders and taught to perceive before they reason.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

BandPC: Learning Residual-Band Preconditioner Combinations for Flexible Conjugate Gradient Solvers

The conjugate gradient (CG) method is a classical iterative solver for sparse symmetric positive definite (SPD) linear systems, but its convergence strongly depends on the spectral properties of the system matrix. Preconditioning can improve these properties; however, designing preconditioners that generalize across diverse and irregular sparsity patterns remains challenging. We propose BandPC (Band Preconditioner Combinations, where "Band" denotes residual-norm bands), a data-driven framework that leverages graph neural networks (GNNs) to predict multi-stage preconditioning strategies for the flexible conjugate gradient (FCG) method. BandPC partitions the FCG iteration into three residual-norm-based bands and defines a structured search space of 125 candidate combinations over five classical preconditioners. By exploiting FCG's ability to switch preconditioners across iterations, BandPC learns to map matrix structure directly to a promising preconditioner sequence. To improve training and generalization, we introduce a soft-labeling mechanism that retains near-optimal combinations and normalizes their scores into a label distribution, together with a hierarchical feature representation that captures node-level attributes, edge-level algebraic coupling strengths, and global matrix statistics. Experiments on a hybrid benchmark of synthetic SPD problems and diverse matrices from the SuiteSparse Collection show that BandPC achieves the best iteration count and solution time on 41.3% and 33.1% of test matrices, respectively, even when compared with each matrix's individually best traditional preconditioner. These results demonstrate that learned residual-band preconditioner scheduling can effectively accelerate flexible CG solvers.

math.NA↗
arXiv2026

Beyond the Best Guess: Improving LLM Solution Coverage with Evolution Strategies

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in discovery domains such as math and science. The usual approach is to present the problem to the model and use its answer as the proposed solution. However, beyond this best guess, discovery can be enhanced by increasing test-time compute. In a process called pass@k, the model is allowed to explore the solution space and generate diverse candidate solutions. Unfortunately, the standard approach to post-training LLMs through Reinforcement Learning (RL) may limit pass@k: the model's output distribution narrows around high-reward outputs, causing the solution coverage to collapse. The alternative is to use Evolution Strategies (ES), a population-based, gradient-free post-training method that optimizes directly in weight space through random perturbations. As this paper shows, ES achieves consistently higher pass@k than RL and produces a broader output distribution with greater solution coverage. This coverage in turn makes it possible to achieve better results in e.g. standard math benchmarks. Thus, ES provides a better foundation for post-training in discovery problems and other domains where diverse solution coverage is critical.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Depth-Semantic Alignment and Affinity-Guided Fusion for Structured Radar Point Cloud Generation

Point clouds are an important carrier of three-dimensional spatial information, and their quality directly affects the performance of downstream perception tasks such as object detection and tracking. However, millimeter-wave radar point clouds are typically sparse, noisy, and structurally incomplete. To address these limitations, this paper proposes a multimodal point cloud generation method based on vision-radar fusion. The proposed method leverages image semantic information to impose structural constraints and achieve spatial alignment for radar point clouds, while incorporating a sparse completion strategy to enhance point density and recover missing structures. The generated point clouds are further evaluated in object detection and tracking tasks. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method effectively improves point cloud quality and enhances the detection accuracy and robustness of perception models in complex environments, providing a practical solution for multisensor point cloud generation and intelligent perception systems.

cs.CV↗
arXiv2026

Evolution Strategies at Scale: LLM Fine-Tuning Beyond Reinforcement Learning

Fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) for downstream tasks is an essential stage of modern AI deployment. Reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as the dominant fine-tuning paradigm, underpinning many state-of-the-art LLMs. In contrast, evolution strategies (ES) has largely been overlooked due to the widespread belief that it does not scale to modern model sizes. This paper overturns this assumption by demonstrating the first successful application of ES to full-parameter fine-tuning of LLMs at the billion-parameter scale, without dimensionality reduction. ES can indeed search over extremely high-dimensional parameter spaces and outperform established RL implementations across multiple axes, including improved tolerance to long-horizon and delayed rewards, robustness across diverse base LLMs, reduced susceptibility to reward hacking, and improved training stability. These findings suggest that ES is not merely a viable alternative to RL, but a fundamentally different and powerful backpropagation-free post-training paradigm that opens a new direction for LLM fine-tuning beyond current RL-based approaches.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

From Recognition to Understanding: Unlocking Cognitive Time Series Reasoning with LLMs

Time series analysis has recently been coupled with Large Language Models (LLMs) to leverage their reasoning and world knowledge capabilities, yet gains remain limited. We attribute this to a fundamental mismatch between existing task formulations and LLM strengths: most settings reduce time series understanding to curve-fitting systems, focusing on low-level prediction while ignoring the semantic, contextual, and reasoning-intensive nature of real-world temporal decision-making.To address these limitations, we introduce TSCognition, a multimodal benchmark for multi-dimensional time series reasoning. It collects real-world time series and textual information from 15 public sources and constructs approximately 41K QA samples around five cognitive reasoning tasks: Decoding, Grounding, Inferring, Extrapolating, and Acting. Building on this, we further propose TSAlign, a unified framework that encodes time series into compact patch-level representations and aligns them with semantic directions in the LLM embedding space via gated residual injection and multivariate fusion.Experiments show that TSAlign outperforms existing LLM, VLM, and time series QA baselines on TSCognition and the publicly available TimerBed benchmark while substantially reducing computational cost.Code is available at: [https://github.com/EIT-NLP/CognitiveTSR](https://github.com/EIT-NLP/CognitiveTSR)

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Quantized Evolution Strategies: High-precision Fine-tuning of Quantized LLMs at Low-precision Cost

Post-Training Quantization (PTQ) is essential for deploying Large Language Models (LLMs) on memory-constrained devices, yet it renders models static and difficult to fine-tune. Standard fine-tuning paradigms, including Reinforcement Learning (RL), fundamentally rely on backpropagation and continuous weights to compute gradients. Thus they cannot be used on quantized models, where the parameter space is discrete and non-differentiable. While Evolution Strategies (ES) offer a backpropagation-free alternative, optimization of the quantized parameters can still fail due to vanishing or inaccurate gradient estimation. This paper introduces Quantized Evolution Strategies (QES), an optimization paradigm that performs full-parameter fine-tuning directly in the quantized space. QES is based on two innovations: (1) it integrates accumulated error feedback to preserve high-precision weight updating signals, and (2) it utilizes a stateless seed replay to reduce memory usage to low-precision inference levels. QES significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art zeroth-order fine-tuning methods on a variety of tasks, making direct fine-tuning for quantized models possible. It therefore opens up the possibility for scaling up LLMs entirely in the quantized space. The source code is available at https://github.com/dibbla/Quantized-Evolution-Strategies .

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Beyond Uniform Tokens: Adaptive Compression for Time Series Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) have enabled time series (TS) analysis by jointly modeling numerical observations and textual context through a shared token interface. However, TS tokens and prompt tokens exhibit fundamentally different information structures, making uniform token processing inefficient. In this paper, we study token efficiency in TS language modeling from an asymmetric-token perspective. We show that TS tokens have highly uneven spectral contributions, where many tokens share redundant frequency patterns while a small subset preserves critical temporal evidence. We also observe that prompt-token influence attenuates with model depth, suggesting that full prompt retention across all layers is unnecessary. Based on these findings, we develop an adaptive token budgeting framework that compresses TS tokens via frequency-domain structure and progressively reduces prompt tokens across layers. Experiments across forecasting, classification, imputation, and anomaly detection demonstrate up to \textit{\textbf{7.68$\times$}} inference acceleration and performance gains in \textit{\textbf{78\%}} of evaluated settings, showing the effectiveness of asymmetric token compression for scalable TS foundation models.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Understanding Cross-Sensor Feature Variations for Generalizable 3D Perception

Radar-camera BEV perception often suffers from degraded performance when evaluated across datasets, as changes in driving scenes, sensor configurations, and environmental conditions can alter both the input observations and the internal fused representations. This work studies this issue from the perspective of source-domain variation modeling, aiming to improve the robustness of BEV-based 3D detectors without relying on target-domain samples. We introduce a framework that characterizes visual scene variations in the frequency domain and uses them to synthesize diverse source-domain views. By comparing the resulting fused BEV representations, the framework further captures how image-level variations influence multi-modal BEV features. These variation patterns are then used to regularize the detector, encouraging the learned fusion space to remain stable under latent scene changes. The proposed method is applied only during training and leaves the inference pipeline unchanged. Experiments on cross-dataset radar-camera 3D detection between View-of-Delft and TJ4DRadSet demonstrate consistent improvements over multiple BEV fusion backbones, and the gains remain effective when a small amount of target-domain data is available.

cs.CV↗
arXiv2026

Overcoming Forgetting in LLM Fine-Tuning with Evolution Strategies

Evolution Strategies (ES) has recently emerged as a competitive alternative to reinforcement learning (RL) for large language model (LLM) fine-tuning, offering advantages through simplicity, scalability, and inference-only training. However, recent work suggests that ES fine-tuning on new tasks may induce forgetting of prior tasks. First, this paper shows that prior task forgetting (1) is better characterized as performance drift rather than irreversible forgetting, with prior-task performance often recovering during ES training; and (2) is not a specific failure mode of ES, but can also arise for fine-tuning with RL methods. Second, it analyzes when and why such drift arises, highlighting its dependence on ES training dynamics, particularly random walk behavior in weakly constrained directions of the weight space. Third, based on these insights, it introduces Anchored Weight Decay (AWD) as a parameter-space regularization technique that constrains optimization toward the initial model parameters. AWD effectively stabilizes prior-task performance while preserving target-task performance, achieving benefits comparable to large ES population sizes at much lower computational cost. Thus, contrary to previous beliefs, the paper shows that prior-task forgetting under ES is largely avoidable, positioning ES as a promising approach for continual learning in LLMs.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

ViCA: Efficient Multimodal LLMs with Vision-Only Cross-Attention

Modern multimodal large language models (MLLMs) adopt a unified self-attention design that processes visual and textual tokens at every Transformer layer, incurring substantial computational overhead. In this work, we revisit the necessity of such dense visual processing and show that projected visual embeddings are already well-aligned with the language space, while effective vision-language interaction occurs in only a small subset of layers. Based on these insights, we propose ViCA (Vision-only Cross-Attention), a minimal MLLM architecture in which visual tokens bypass all self-attention and feed-forward layers, interacting with text solely through sparse cross-attention at selected layers. Extensive evaluations across three MLLM backbones, nine multimodal benchmarks, and 26 pruning-based baselines show that ViCA preserves 98% of baseline accuracy while reducing visual-side computation to 4%, consistently achieving superior performance-efficiency trade-offs. Moreover, ViCA provides a regular, hardware-friendly inference pipeline that yields over 3.5x speedup in single-batch inference and over 10x speedup in multi-batch inference, reducing visual grounding to near-zero overhead compared with text-only LLMs. It is also orthogonal to token pruning methods and can be seamlessly combined for further efficiency gains. Our code is available at https://github.com/EIT-NLP/ViCA.

cs.CV↗
arXiv2026

Fine-Tuning Language Models to Know What They Know

Evaluating true metacognition in Large Language Models (LLMs) is difficult due to biases and heuristics. This paper presents a framework to measure and enhance LLM metacognition while controlling for these biases. A measurement method using the $d'_{\rm type2}$ metric is established to isolate metacognitive ability. The Evolution Strategy for Metacognitive Alignment (ESMA) is proposed, demonstrating robust generalization across unseen datasets, languages, and newly acquired knowledge. Finally, parameter analysis reveals that these improvements are driven by a sparse set of parameters, offering new pathways for targeted metacognitive optimization.

cs.NE↗
arXiv2026

Rethinking the Role of LLMs in Time Series Forecasting

Large language models (LLMs) have been introduced to time series forecasting (TSF) to incorporate contextual knowledge beyond numerical signals. However, existing studies question whether LLMs provide genuine benefits, often reporting comparable performance without LLMs. We show that such conclusions stem from limited evaluation settings and do not hold at scale. We conduct a large-scale study of LLM-based TSF (LLM4TSF) across 8 billion observations, 17 forecasting scenarios, 4 horizons, multiple alignment strategies, and both in-domain and out-of-domain settings. Our results demonstrate that \emph{LLM4TS indeed improves forecasting performance}, with especially large gains in cross-domain generalization. Pre-alignment outperforming post-alignment in over 90\% of tasks. Both pretrained knowledge and model architecture of LLMs contribute and play complementary roles: pretraining is critical under distribution shifts, while architecture excels at modeling complex temporal dynamics. Moreover, under large-scale mixed distributions, a fully intact LLM becomes indispensable, as confirmed by token-level routing analysis and prompt-based improvements. Overall, Our findings overturn prior negative assessments, establish clear conditions under which LLMs are not only useful, and provide practical guidance for effective model design. We release our code at https://github.com/EIT-NLP/LLM4TSF.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

The Blessing of Dimensionality in LLM Fine-tuning: A Variance-Curvature Perspective

Weight-perturbation evolution strategies (ES) can fine-tune billion-parameter language models with surprisingly small populations (e.g., $N\!\approx\!30$), contradicting classical zeroth-order curse-of-dimensionality intuition. We also observe a second seemingly separate phenomenon: under fixed hyperparameters, the stochastic fine-tuning reward often rises, peaks, and then degrades in both ES and GRPO. We argue that both effects reflect a shared geometric property of fine-tuning landscapes: they are low-dimensional in curvature. A small set of high-curvature dimensions dominates improvement, producing (i) heterogeneous time scales that yield rise-then-decay under fixed stochasticity, as captured by a minimal quadratic stochastic-ascent model, and (ii) degenerate improving updates, where many random perturbations share similar components along these directions. Using ES as a geometric probe on fine-tuning reward landscapes of GSM8K, ARC-C, and WinoGrande across Qwen2.5-Instruct models (0.5B--7B), we show that reward-improving perturbations remain empirically accessible with small populations across scales. Together, these results reconcile ES scalability with non-monotonic training dynamics and suggest that high-dimensional fine-tuning may admit a broader class of viable optimization methods than worst-case theory implies.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

SonicBench: Dissecting the Physical Perception Bottleneck in Large Audio Language Models

Large Audio Language Models (LALMs) excel at semantic and paralinguistic tasks, yet their ability to perceive the fundamental physical attributes of audio such as pitch, loudness, and spatial location remains under-explored. To bridge this gap, we introduce SonicBench, a psychophysically grounded benchmark that systematically evaluates 12 core physical attributes across five perceptual dimensions. Unlike previous datasets, SonicBench uses a controllable generation toolbox to construct stimuli for two complementary paradigms: recognition (absolute judgment) and comparison (relative judgment). This design allows us to probe not only sensory precision but also relational reasoning capabilities, a domain where humans typically exhibit greater proficiency. Our evaluation reveals a substantial deficiency in LALMs' foundational auditory understanding; most models perform near random guessing and, contrary to human patterns, fail to show the expected advantage on comparison tasks. Furthermore, explicit reasoning yields minimal gains. However, our linear probing analysis demonstrates crucially that frozen audio encoders do successfully capture these physical cues (accuracy at least 60%), suggesting that the primary bottleneck lies in the alignment and decoding stages, where models fail to leverage the sensory signals they have already captured.

cs.SD↗
arXiv2025

Solving a Million-Step LLM Task with Zero Errors

LLMs have achieved remarkable breakthroughs in reasoning, insights, and tool use, but chaining these abilities into extended processes at the scale of those routinely executed by humans, organizations, and societies has remained out of reach. The models have a persistent error rate that prevents scale-up: for instance, recent experiments in the Towers of Hanoi benchmark domain showed that the process inevitably becomes derailed after at most a few hundred steps. Thus, although LLM research is often still benchmarked on tasks with relatively few dependent logical steps, there is increasing attention on the ability (or inability) of LLMs to perform long range tasks. This paper describes MAKER, the first system that successfully solves a task with over one million LLM steps with zero errors, and, in principle, scales far beyond this level. The approach relies on an extreme decomposition of a task into subtasks, each of which can be tackled by focused microagents. The high level of modularity resulting from the decomposition allows error correction to be applied at each step through an efficient multi-agent voting scheme. This combination of extreme decomposition and error correction makes scaling possible. Thus, the results suggest that instead of relying on continual improvement of current LLMs, massively decomposed agentic processes (MDAPs) may provide a way to efficiently solve problems at the level of organizations and societies.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2025

The Few Govern the Many:Unveiling Few-Layer Dominance for Time Series Models

Large-scale models are at the forefront of time series (TS) forecasting, dominated by two paradigms: fine-tuning text-based Large Language Models (LLM4TS) and training Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) from scratch. Both approaches share a foundational assumption that scaling up model capacity and data volume leads to improved performance. However, we observe a \textit{\textbf{scaling paradox}} in TS models, revealing a puzzling phenomenon that larger models do \emph{NOT} achieve better performance. Through extensive experiments on two model families across four scales (100M to 1.7B parameters) and diverse data (up to 6B observations), we rigorously confirm that the scaling paradox is a pervasive issue. We then diagnose its root cause by analyzing internal representations, identifying a phenomenon we call \textit{few-layer dominance}: only a small subset of layers are functionally important, while the majority are redundant, under-utilized, and can even distract training. Based on this discovery, we propose a practical method to automatically identify and retain only these dominant layers. In our models, retaining only 21\% of the parameters achieves up to a 12\% accuracy improvement and a 2.7$\times$ inference speedup. We validate the universality of our method on 8 prominent SOTA models (LLM4TS and TSFMs, 90M to 6B), showing that retaining less than 30\% of layers achieves comparable or superior accuracy in over 95\% of tasks.

cs.LG↗