arXiv subjects

Xing Han

Publications and source records attributed to Xing Han.

27 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Split Localized Conformal Prediction

Conformal prediction is a simple and powerful tool that can quantify uncertainty without any distributional assumptions. Many existing methods only address the average coverage guarantee, which is not ideal compared to the stronger conditional coverage guarantee. Existing methods of approximating conditional coverage require additional models or time effort, which makes them not easy to scale. In this paper, we propose a modified non-conformity score by leveraging the local approximation of the conditional distribution using kernel density estimation. The modified score inherits the spirit of split conformal methods, which is simple and efficient and can scale to high dimensional settings. We also proposed a unified framework that brings together our method and several state-of-the-art. We perform extensive empirical evaluations: results measured by both average and conditional coverage confirm the advantage of our method.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Dynamic Combination of Heterogeneous Models for Hierarchical Time Series

We introduce a framework to dynamically combine heterogeneous models called \texttt{DYCHEM}, which forecasts a set of time series that are related through an aggregation hierarchy. Different types of forecasting models can be employed as individual ``experts'' so that each model is tailored to the nature of the corresponding time series. \texttt{DYCHEM} learns hierarchical structures during the training stage to help generalize better across all the time series being modeled and also mitigates coherency issues that arise due to constraints imposed by the hierarchy. To improve the reliability of forecasts, we construct quantile estimations based on the point forecasts obtained from combined heterogeneous models. The resulting quantile forecasts are coherent and independent of the choice of forecasting models. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation of both point and quantile forecasts for hierarchical time series (HTS), including public data and user records from a large financial software company. In general, our method is robust, adaptive to datasets with different properties, and highly configurable and efficient for large-scale forecasting pipelines.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Certified Monotonic Neural Networks

Learning monotonic models with respect to a subset of the inputs is a desirable feature to effectively address the fairness, interpretability, and generalization issues in practice. Existing methods for learning monotonic neural networks either require specifically designed model structures to ensure monotonicity, which can be too restrictive/complicated, or enforce monotonicity by adjusting the learning process, which cannot provably guarantee the learned model is monotonic on selected features. In this work, we propose to certify the monotonicity of the general piece-wise linear neural networks by solving a mixed integer linear programming problem.This provides a new general approach for learning monotonic neural networks with arbitrary model structures. Our method allows us to train neural networks with heuristic monotonicity regularizations, and we can gradually increase the regularization magnitude until the learned network is certified monotonic. Compared to prior works, our approach does not require human-designed constraints on the weight space and also yields more accurate approximation. Empirical studies on various datasets demonstrate the efficiency of our approach over the state-of-the-art methods, such as Deep Lattice Networks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Architecture Agnostic Federated Learning for Neural Networks

With growing concerns regarding data privacy and rapid increase in data volume, Federated Learning(FL) has become an important learning paradigm. However, jointly learning a deep neural network model in a FL setting proves to be a non-trivial task because of the complexities associated with the neural networks, such as varied architectures across clients, permutation invariance of the neurons, and presence of non-linear transformations in each layer. This work introduces a novel Federated Heterogeneous Neural Networks (FedHeNN) framework that allows each client to build a personalised model without enforcing a common architecture across clients. This allows each client to optimize with respect to local data and compute constraints, while still benefiting from the learnings of other (potentially more powerful) clients. The key idea of FedHeNN is to use the instance-level representations obtained from peer clients to guide the simultaneous training on each client. The extensive experimental results demonstrate that the FedHeNN framework is capable of learning better performing models on clients in both the settings of homogeneous and heterogeneous architectures across clients.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Efficient Forecasting of Large Scale Hierarchical Time Series via Multilevel Clustering

We propose a novel approach to the problem of clustering hierarchically aggregated time-series data, which has remained an understudied problem though it has several commercial applications. We first group time series at each aggregated level, while simultaneously leveraging local and global information. The proposed method can cluster hierarchical time series (HTS) with different lengths and structures. For common two-level hierarchies, we employ a combined objective for local and global clustering over spaces of discrete probability measures, using Wasserstein distance coupled with Soft-DTW divergence. For multi-level hierarchies, we present a bottom-up procedure that progressively leverages lower-level information for higher-level clustering. Our final goal is to improve both the accuracy and speed of forecasts for a larger number of HTS needed for a real-world application. To attain this goal, each time series is first assigned the forecast for its cluster representative, which can be considered as a "shrinkage prior" for the set of time series it represents. Then this base forecast can be quickly fine-tuned to adjust to the specifics of that time series. We empirically show that our method substantially improves performance in terms of both speed and accuracy for large-scale forecasting tasks involving much HTS.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Model-Agnostic Explanations using Minimal Forcing Subsets

How can we find a subset of training samples that are most responsible for a specific prediction made by a complex black-box machine learning model? More generally, how can we explain the model's decisions to end-users in a transparent way? We propose a new model-agnostic algorithm to identify a minimal set of training samples that are indispensable for a given model's decision at a particular test point, i.e., the model's decision would have changed upon the removal of this subset from the training dataset. Our algorithm identifies such a set of "indispensable" samples iteratively by solving a constrained optimization problem. Further, we speed up the algorithm through efficient approximations and provide theoretical justification for its performance. To demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of our approach, we apply it to a variety of tasks including data poisoning detection, training set debugging and understanding loan decisions. The results show that our algorithm is an effective and easy-to-comprehend tool that helps to better understand local model behavior, and therefore facilitates the adoption of machine learning in domains where such understanding is a requisite.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Multi-Pair Text Style Transfer on Unbalanced Data

Text-style transfer aims to convert text given in one domain into another by paraphrasing the sentence or substituting the keywords without altering the content. By necessity, state-of-the-art methods have evolved to accommodate nonparallel training data, as it is frequently the case there are multiple data sources of unequal size, with a mixture of labeled and unlabeled sentences. Moreover, the inherent style defined within each source might be distinct. A generic bidirectional (e.g., formal $\Leftrightarrow$ informal) style transfer regardless of different groups may not generalize well to different applications. In this work, we developed a task adaptive meta-learning framework that can simultaneously perform a multi-pair text-style transfer using a single model. The proposed method can adaptively balance the difference of meta-knowledge across multiple tasks. Results show that our method leads to better quantitative performance as well as coherent style variations. Common challenges of unbalanced data and mismatched domains are handled well by this method.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2021

Simultaneously Reconciled Quantile Forecasting of Hierarchically Related Time Series

Many real-life applications involve simultaneously forecasting multiple time series that are hierarchically related via aggregation or disaggregation operations. For instance, commercial organizations often want to forecast inventories simultaneously at store, city, and state levels for resource planning purposes. In such applications, it is important that the forecasts, in addition to being reasonably accurate, are also consistent w.r.t one another. Although forecasting such hierarchical time series has been pursued by economists and data scientists, the current state-of-the-art models use strong assumptions, e.g., all forecasts being unbiased estimates, noise distribution being Gaussian. Besides, state-of-the-art models have not harnessed the power of modern nonlinear models, especially ones based on deep learning. In this paper, we propose using a flexible nonlinear model that optimizes quantile regression loss coupled with suitable regularization terms to maintain the consistency of forecasts across hierarchies. The theoretical framework introduced herein can be applied to any forecasting model with an underlying differentiable loss function. A proof of optimality of our proposed method is also provided. Simulation studies over a range of datasets highlight the efficacy of our approach.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Realization of nonlinear optical nonreciprocity on a few-photon level based on atoms strongly coupled to an asymmetric cavity

Optical nonreciprocity is important in photonic information processing to route the optical signal or prevent the reverse flow of noise. By adopting the strong nonlinearity associated with a few atoms in a strongly coupled cavity QED system and an asymmetric cavity configuration, we experimentally demonstrate the nonreciprocal transmission between two counterpropagating light fields with extremely low power. This nonreciprocity can even occur on a few-photon level due to the high optical nonlinearity of the system. The working power can be flexibly tuned by changing the effective number of atoms strongly coupled to the cavity. The idea and result can be applied to optical chips as optical diodes by using fiber-based cavity QED systems. Our work opens up new perspectives for realizing optical nonreciprocity on a few-photon level based on the nonlinearities of atoms strongly coupled to an optical cavity.

quant-ph↗