arXiv subjects

Xingqiu Zhao

Publications and source records attributed to Xingqiu Zhao.

15 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Identification and Inference for Structural Accelerated Failure Time Models via Instrument Interactions

We study causal inference for time-to-event outcomes under right censoring in the presence of unmeasured confounding. Focusing on structural accelerated failure time models, we develop an identification and inference framework that exploits interactions among instrumental variables. The proposed approach does not rely on classical instrumental variable validity and yields valid causal inference under both valid and invalid instruments, provided that the interaction-based identification condition holds. To accommodate right censoring, we construct a censoring-adjusted observed data moment function using an augmented inverse probability censoring weighting approach. The resulting moment function is Neyman orthogonal with respect to nuisance functions and enjoys a double robustness property, enabling valid inference under flexible nuisance estimation. Estimation and inference are conducted using generalized empirical likelihood, which is well suited to settings with many potentially weak interaction-based moment conditions. We establish consistency, and asymptotic normality under many weak moment asymptotics, and develop diagnostic tools to assess interaction-based identification strength and overidentifying restrictions. Simulation studies demonstrate favorable finite sample performance across a range of censoring rates and instrument configurations. An application to UK Biobank data illustrates the practical relevance of the proposed method for causal survival analysis in large-scale observational studies.

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arXiv2026

Flexible semiparametric modeling with application to Causal Inference

This paper proposes a flexible new framework for constructing Neyman-orthogonal scores in semiparametric models involving infinite-dimensional nuisance parameters. While locally estimation is vital for integrating machine learning into econometrics, deriving orthogonal scores for complex models remains a major challenge. We provide explicit construction strategies for broad classes of settings. The proposed framework ensures asymptotic normality of target parameter estimators in a way that does not depend on the method used to construct the nuisance parameter estimators, provided they are $o_p(n^{-\1/4})$-consistent. We apply the proposed methodology to causal inference with a binary instrumental variable, developing a novel, robust estimator for treatment effects. Numerical studies demonstrate that our approach significantly outperforms naive alternatives in finite samples. An empirical application to the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment illustrates the framework's utility in providing robust causal evidence.

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arXiv2026

Learning Optimal Individualized Decision Rules with Conditional Demographic Parity

Individualized decision rules (IDRs) have become increasingly prevalent in societal applications such as personalized marketing, healthcare, and public policy design. However, a critical ethical concern arises from the potential discriminatory effects of IDRs trained on biased data. These algorithms may disproportionately harm individuals from minority subgroups defined by sensitive attributes like gender, race, or language. To address this issue, we propose a novel framework that incorporates demographic parity (DP) and conditional demographic parity (CDP) constraints into the estimation of optimal IDRs. We show that the theoretically optimal IDRs under DP and CDP constraints can be obtained by applying perturbations to the unconstrained optimal IDRs, enabling a computationally efficient solution. Theoretically, we derive convergence rates for both policy value and the fairness constraint term. The effectiveness of our methods is illustrated through comprehensive simulation studies and an empirical application to the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment.

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arXiv2026

Learning Optimal Distributionally Robust Individualized Treatment Rules Integrating Multi-Source Data

Integrative analysis of multiple datasets for estimating optimal individualized treatment rules (ITRs) can enhance decision efficiency. A central challenge is posterior shift, wherein the conditional distribution of potential outcomes given covariates differs between source and target populations. We propose a prior information-based distributionally robust ITR (PDRO-ITR) that maximizes the worst-case policy value over a covariate-dependent distributional uncertainty set, ensuring robust performance under posterior shift. The uncertainty set is constructed as an individualized combination of source distributions, with weights combining prior source-membership probabilities and deviation terms constrained to the probability simplex to accommodate posterior shift. We derive a closed-form solution for the PDRO-ITR and develop an adaptive procedure to tune the uncertainty level. We establish risk bounds for the PDRO-ITR estimator, which guarantees robust performance under the worst case. Extensive simulations and two real-data applications demonstrate that the proposed method achieves superior performance compared to existing approaches.

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arXiv2025

Nonconvex Penalized LAD Estimation in Partial Linear Models with DNNs: Asymptotic Analysis and Proximal Algorithms

This paper investigates the partial linear model by Least Absolute Deviation (LAD) regression. We parameterize the nonparametric term using Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) and formulate a penalized LAD problem for estimation. Specifically, our model exhibits the following challenges. First, the regularization term can be nonconvex and nonsmooth, necessitating the introduction of infinite dimensional variational analysis and nonsmooth analysis into the asymptotic normality discussion. Second, our network must expand (in width, sparsity level and depth) as more samples are observed, thereby introducing additional difficulties for theoretical analysis. Third, the oracle of the proposed estimator is itself defined through a ultra high-dimensional, nonconvex, and discontinuous optimization problem, which already entails substantial computational and theoretical challenges. Under such the challenges, we establish the consistency, convergence rate, and asymptotic normality of the estimator. Furthermore, we analyze the oracle problem itself and its continuous relaxation. We study the convergence of a proximal subgradient method for both formulations, highlighting their structural differences lead to distinct computational subproblems along the iterations. In particular, the relaxed formulation admits significantly cheaper proximal updates, reflecting an inherent trade-off between statistical accuracy and computational tractability.

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arXiv2025

Semiparametric Causal Inference for Right-Censored Outcomes with Many Weak Invalid Instruments

We propose a semiparametric framework for causal inference with right-censored survival outcomes and many weak invalid instruments, motivated by Mendelian randomization in biobank studies where classical methods may fail. We adopt an accelerated failure time model and construct a moment condition based on augmented inverse probability of censoring weighting, incorporating both uncensored and censored observations. Under a heteroscedasticity-based condition on the treatment model, we establish point identification of the causal effect despite censoring and invalid instruments. We propose GEL-NOW (Generalized Empirical Likelihood with Non-Neyman Orthogonal and Weak moments) for valid inference under these conditions. A divergent number of Neyman orthogonal nuisance functions is estimated using deep neural networks. A key challenge is that the conditional censoring distribution is a non-Neyman orthogonal nuisance, contributing to the first-order asymptotics of the estimator for the target causal effect parameter. We derive the asymptotic distribution and explicitly incorporate this additional uncertainty into the asymptotic variance formula. We also introduce a censoring-adjusted over-identification test that accounts for this new variance component. Simulation studies and UK Biobank applications demonstrate the method's robustness and practical utility.

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arXiv2025

Optimal Transport Learning: Balancing Value Optimization and Fairness in Individualized Treatment Rules

Individualized treatment rules (ITRs) have gained significant attention due to their wide-ranging applications in fields such as precision medicine, ridesharing, and advertising recommendations. However, when ITRs are influenced by sensitive attributes such as race, gender, or age, they can lead to outcomes where certain groups are unfairly advantaged or disadvantaged. To address this gap, we propose a flexible approach based on the optimal transport theory, which is capable of transforming any optimal ITR into a fair ITR that ensures demographic parity. Recognizing the potential loss of value under fairness constraints, we introduce an ``improved trade-off ITR," designed to balance value optimization and fairness while accommodating varying levels of fairness through parameter adjustment. To maximize the value of the improved trade-off ITR under specific fairness levels, we propose a smoothed fairness constraint for estimating the adjustable parameter. Additionally, we establish a theoretical upper bound on the value loss for the improved trade-off ITR. We demonstrate performance of the proposed method through extensive simulation studies and application to the Next 36 entrepreneurial program dataset.

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arXiv2025

Demographic Parity-aware Individualized Treatment Rules

There has been growing interest in developing optimal individualized treatment rules (ITRs) in various fields, such as precision medicine, business decision-making, and social welfare distribution. The application of ITRs within a societal context raises substantial concerns regarding potential discrimination over sensitive attributes such as age, gender, or race. To address this concern directly, we introduce the concept of demographic parity in ITRs. However, estimating an optimal ITR that satisfies the demographic parity requires solving a non-convex constrained optimization problem. To overcome these computational challenges, we employ tailored fairness proxies inspired by demographic parity and transform it into a convex quadratic programming problem. Additionally, we establish the consistency of the proposed estimator and the risk bound. The performance of the proposed method is demonstrated through extensive simulation studies and real data analysis.

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arXiv2024

Deep Nonparametric Inference for Conditional Hazard Function

We propose a novel deep learning approach to nonparametric statistical inference for the conditional hazard function of survival time with right-censored data. We use a deep neural network (DNN) to approximate the logarithm of a conditional hazard function given covariates and obtain a DNN likelihood-based estimator of the conditional hazard function. Such an estimation approach renders model flexibility and hence relaxes structural and functional assumptions on conditional hazard or survival functions. We establish the nonasymptotic error bound and functional asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator. Subsequently, we develop new one-sample tests for goodness-of-fit evaluation and two-sample tests for treatment comparison. Both simulation studies and real application analysis show superior performances of the proposed estimators and tests in comparison with existing methods.

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arXiv2024

Efficient Estimation for Functional Accelerated Failure Time Model

We propose a functional accelerated failure time model to characterize effects of both functional and scalar covariates on the time to event of interest, and provide regularity conditions to guarantee model identifiability. For efficient estimation of model parameters, we develop a sieve maximum likelihood approach where parametric and nonparametric coefficients are bundled with an unknown baseline hazard function in the likelihood function. Not only do the bundled parameters cause immense numerical difficulties, but they also result in new challenges in theoretical development. By developing a general theoretical framework, we overcome the challenges arising from the bundled parameters and derive the convergence rate of the proposed estimator. Furthermore, we prove that the finite-dimensional estimator is $\sqrt{n}$-consistent, asymptotically normal and achieves the semiparametric information bound. The proposed inference procedures are evaluated by extensive simulation studies and illustrated with an application to the sequential organ failure assessment data from the Improving Care of Acute Lung Injury Patients study.

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arXiv2023

Kernel meets sieve: transformed hazards models with sparse longitudinal covariates

We study the transformed hazards model with time-dependent covariates observed intermittently for the censored outcome. Existing work assumes the availability of the whole trajectory of the time-dependent covariates, which is unrealistic. We propose to combine kernel-weighted log-likelihood and sieve maximum log-likelihood estimation to conduct statistical inference. The method is robust and easy to implement. We establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator and contribute to a rigorous theoretical framework for general kernel-weighted sieve M-estimators. Numerical studies corroborate our theoretical results and show that the proposed method performs favorably over existing methods. Applying to a COVID-19 study in Wuhan illustrates the practical utility of our method.

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arXiv2022

Deep Generative Survival Analysis: Nonparametric Estimation of Conditional Survival Function

We propose a deep generative approach to nonparametric estimation of conditional survival and hazard functions with right-censored data. The key idea of the proposed method is to first learn a conditional generator for the joint conditional distribution of the observed time and censoring indicator given the covariates, and then construct the Kaplan-Meier and Nelson-Aalen estimators based on this conditional generator for the conditional hazard and survival functions. Our method combines ideas from the recently developed deep generative learning and classical nonparametric estimation in survival analysis. We analyze the convergence properties of the proposed method and establish the consistency of the generative nonparametric estimators of the conditional survival and hazard functions. Our numerical experiments validate the proposed method and demonstrate its superior performance in a range of simulated models. We also illustrate the applications of the proposed method in constructing prediction intervals for survival times with the PBC (Primary Biliary Cholangitis) and SUPPORT (Study to Understand Prognoses and Preferences for Outcomes and Risks of Treatments) datasets.

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arXiv2021

Statistical Estimation and Nonlinear Filtering in Environmental Pollution

This paper studies a nonlinear filtering problem over an infinite time interval. The signal to be estimated is driven by a stochastic partial differential equation involves unknown parameters. Based on discrete observation, strongly consistent estimators of the parameters are derived at first. With the optimal filter given by Bayes formula, the uniqueness of invariant measure for the signal-filter pair has been verified. The paper then establishes approximation to the optimal filter, showing that the pathwise average distance, per unit time, of the computed approximating filter from the optimal filter converges to zero in probability. Simulation results are presented at last.

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arXiv2011

Delta method in large deviations and moderate deviations for estimators

The delta method is a popular and elementary tool for deriving limiting distributions of transformed statistics, while applications of asymptotic distributions do not allow one to obtain desirable accuracy of approximation for tail probabilities. The large and moderate deviation theory can achieve this goal. Motivated by the delta method in weak convergence, a general delta method in large deviations is proposed. The new method can be widely applied to driving the moderate deviations of estimators and is illustrated by examples including the Wilcoxon statistic, the Kaplan--Meier estimator, the empirical quantile processes and the empirical copula function. We also improve the existing moderate deviations results for $M$-estimators and $L$-statistics by the new method. Some applications of moderate deviations to statistical hypothesis testing are provided.

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arXiv2009

New multi-sample nonparametric tests for panel count data

This paper considers the problem of multi-sample nonparametric comparison of counting processes with panel count data, which arise naturally when recurrent events are considered. Such data frequently occur in medical follow-up studies and reliability experiments, for example. For the problem considered, we construct two new classes of nonparametric test statistics based on the accumulated weighted differences between the rates of increase of the estimated mean functions of the counting processes over observation times, wherein the nonparametric maximum likelihood approach is used to estimate the mean function instead of the nonparametric maximum pseudo-likelihood. The asymptotic distributions of the proposed statistics are derived and their finite-sample properties are examined through Monte Carlo simulations. The simulation results show that the proposed methods work quite well and are more powerful than the existing test procedures. Two real data sets are analyzed and presented as illustrative examples.

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