arXiv subjects

Xingye Qiao

Publications and source records attributed to Xingye Qiao.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Conformal Prediction Under Generalized Covariate Shift with Posterior Drift

In many real applications of statistical learning, collecting sufficiently many training data is often expensive, time-consuming, or even unrealistic. In this case, a transfer learning approach, which aims to leverage knowledge from a related source domain to improve the learning performance in the target domain, is more beneficial. There have been many transfer learning methods developed under various distributional assumptions. In this article, we study a particular type of classification problem, called conformal prediction, under a new distributional assumption for transfer learning. Classifiers under the conformal prediction framework predict a set of plausible labels instead of one single label for each data instance, affording a more cautious and safer decision. We consider a generalization of the \textit{covariate shift with posterior drift} setting for transfer learning. Under this setting, we propose a weighted conformal classifier that leverages both the source and target samples, with a coverage guarantee in the target domain. Theoretical studies demonstrate favorable asymptotic properties. Numerical studies further illustrate the usefulness of the proposed method.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Conformal Inference of Individual Treatment Effects Using Conditional Density Estimates

In an era where diverse and complex data are increasingly accessible, the precise prediction of individual treatment effects (ITE) becomes crucial across fields such as healthcare, economics, and public policy. Current state-of-the-art approaches, while providing valid prediction intervals through Conformal Quantile Regression (CQR) and related techniques, often yield overly conservative prediction intervals. In this work, we introduce a conformal inference approach to ITE using the conditional density of the outcome given the covariates. We leverage the reference distribution technique to efficiently estimate the conditional densities as the score functions under a two-stage conformal ITE framework. We show that our prediction intervals are not only marginally valid but are narrower than existing methods. Experimental results further validate the usefulness of our method.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

A Non-parametric Direct Learning Approach to Heterogeneous Treatment Effect Estimation under Unmeasured Confounding

In many social, behavioral, and biomedical sciences, treatment effect estimation is a crucial step in understanding the impact of an intervention, policy, or treatment. In recent years, an increasing emphasis has been placed on heterogeneity in treatment effects, leading to the development of various methods for estimating Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE). These approaches hinge on a crucial identifying condition of no unmeasured confounding, an assumption that is not always guaranteed in observational studies or randomized control trials with non-compliance. In this paper, we proposed a general framework for estimating CATE with a possible unmeasured confounder using Instrumental Variables. We also construct estimators that exhibit greater efficiency and robustness against various scenarios of model misspecification. The efficacy of the proposed framework is demonstrated through simulation studies and a real data example.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Efficient Online Set-valued Classification with Bandit Feedback

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free method that wraps a given machine learning model and returns a set of plausible labels that contain the true label with a prescribed coverage rate. In practice, the empirical coverage achieved highly relies on fully observed label information from data both in the training phase for model fitting and the calibration phase for quantile estimation. This dependency poses a challenge in the context of online learning with bandit feedback, where a learner only has access to the correctness of actions (i.e., pulled an arm) but not the full information of the true label. In particular, when the pulled arm is incorrect, the learner only knows that the pulled one is not the true class label, but does not know which label is true. Additionally, bandit feedback further results in a smaller labeled dataset for calibration, limited to instances with correct actions, thereby affecting the accuracy of quantile estimation. To address these limitations, we propose Bandit Class-specific Conformal Prediction (BCCP), offering coverage guarantees on a class-specific granularity. Using an unbiased estimation of an estimand involving the true label, BCCP trains the model and makes set-valued inferences through stochastic gradient descent. Our approach overcomes the challenges of sparsely labeled data in each iteration and generalizes the reliability and applicability of conformal prediction to online decision-making environments.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

Learning Acceptance Regions for Many Classes with Anomaly Detection

Set-valued classification, a new classification paradigm that aims to identify all the plausible classes that an observation belongs to, can be obtained by learning the acceptance regions for all classes. Many existing set-valued classification methods do not consider the possibility that a new class that never appeared in the training data appears in the test data. Moreover, they are computationally expensive when the number of classes is large. We propose a Generalized Prediction Set (GPS) approach to estimate the acceptance regions while considering the possibility of a new class in the test data. The proposed classifier minimizes the expected size of the prediction set while guaranteeing that the class-specific accuracy is at least a pre-specified value. Unlike previous methods, the proposed method achieves a good balance between accuracy, efficiency, and anomaly detection rate. Moreover, our method can be applied in parallel to all the classes to alleviate the computational burden. Both theoretical analysis and numerical experiments are conducted to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

Enhanced Nearest Neighbor Classification for Crowdsourcing

In machine learning, crowdsourcing is an economical way to label a large amount of data. However, the noise in the produced labels may deteriorate the accuracy of any classification method applied to the labelled data. We propose an enhanced nearest neighbor classifier (ENN) to overcome this issue. Two algorithms are developed to estimate the worker quality (which is often unknown in practice): one is to construct the estimate based on the denoised worker labels by applying the $k$NN classifier to the expert data; the other is an iterative algorithm that works even without access to the expert data. Other than strong numerical evidence, our proposed methods are proven to achieve the same regret as its oracle version based on high-quality expert data. As a technical by-product, a lower bound on the sample size assigned to each worker to reach the optimal convergence rate of regret is derived.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2021

Doubly Robust Direct Learning for Estimating Conditional Average Treatment Effect

Inferring the heterogeneous treatment effect is a fundamental problem in the sciences and commercial applications. In this paper, we focus on estimating Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE), that is, the difference in the conditional mean outcome between treatments given covariates. Traditionally, Q-Learning based approaches rely on the estimation of conditional mean outcome given treatment and covariates. However, they are subject to misspecification of the main effect model. Recently, simple and flexible one-step methods to directly learn (D-Learning) the CATE without model specifications have been proposed. However, these methods are not robust against misspecification of the propensity score model. We propose a new framework for CATE estimation, robust direct learning (RD-Learning), leading to doubly robust estimators of the treatment effect. The consistency for our CATE estimator is guaranteed if either the main effect model or the propensity score model is correctly specified. The framework can be used in both the binary and the multi-arm settings and is general enough to allow different function spaces and incorporate different generic learning algorithms. As a by-product, we develop a competitive statistical inference tool for the treatment effect, assuming the propensity score is known. We provide theoretical insights to the proposed method using risk bounds under both linear and non-linear settings. The effectiveness of our proposed method is demonstrated by simulation studies and a real data example about an AIDS Clinical Trials study.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

Covariance-engaged Classification of Sets via Linear Programming

Set classification aims to classify a set of observations as a whole, as opposed to classifying individual observations separately. To formally understand the unfamiliar concept of binary set classification, we first investigate the optimal decision rule under the normal distribution, which utilizes the empirical covariance of the set to be classified. We show that the number of observations in the set plays a critical role in bounding the Bayes risk. Under this framework, we further propose new methods of set classification. For the case where only a few parameters of the model drive the difference between two classes, we propose a computationally-efficient approach to parameter estimation using linear programming, leading to the Covariance-engaged LInear Programming Set (CLIPS) classifier. Its theoretical properties are investigated for both independent case and various (short-range and long-range dependent) time series structures among observations within each set. The convergence rates of estimation errors and risk of the CLIPS classifier are established to show that having multiple observations in a set leads to faster convergence rates, compared to the standard classification situation in which there is only one observation in the set. The applicable domains in which the CLIPS performs better than competitors are highlighted in a comprehensive simulation study. Finally, we illustrate the usefulness of the proposed methods in classification of real image data in histopathology.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Near-optimal Individualized Treatment Recommendations

Individualized treatment recommendation (ITR) is an important analytic framework for precision medicine. The goal is to assign proper treatments to patients based on their individual characteristics. From the machine learning perspective, the solution to an ITR problem can be formulated as a weighted classification problem to maximize the average benefit that patients receive from the recommended treatments. Several methods have been proposed for ITR in both binary and multicategory treatment setups. In practice, one may prefer a more flexible recommendation with multiple treatment options. This motivates us to develop methods to obtain a set of near-optimal individualized treatment recommendations alternative to each other, called alternative individualized treatment recommendations (A-ITR). We propose two methods to estimate the optimal A-ITR within the outcome weighted learning (OWL) framework. We show the consistency of these methods and obtain an upper bound for the risk between the theoretically optimal recommendation and the estimated one. We also conduct simulation studies, and apply our methods to a real data set for Type 2 diabetic patients with injectable antidiabetic treatments. These numerical studies have shown the usefulness of the proposed A-ITR framework. We develop a R package aitr which can be found at https://github.com/menghaomiao/aitr.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

Maximum Entropy Diverse Exploration: Disentangling Maximum Entropy Reinforcement Learning

Two hitherto disconnected threads of research, diverse exploration (DE) and maximum entropy RL have addressed a wide range of problems facing reinforcement learning algorithms via ostensibly distinct mechanisms. In this work, we identify a connection between these two approaches. First, a discriminator-based diversity objective is put forward and connected to commonly used divergence measures. We then extend this objective to the maximum entropy framework and propose an algorithm Maximum Entropy Diverse Exploration (MEDE) which provides a principled method to learn diverse behaviors. A theoretical investigation shows that the set of policies learned by MEDE capture the same modalities as the optimal maximum entropy policy. In effect, the proposed algorithm disentangles the maximum entropy policy into its diverse, constituent policies. Experiments show that MEDE is superior to the state of the art in learning high performing and diverse policies.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Rates of Convergence for Large-scale Nearest Neighbor Classification

Nearest neighbor is a popular class of classification methods with many desirable properties. For a large data set which cannot be loaded into the memory of a single machine due to computation, communication, privacy, or ownership limitations, we consider the divide and conquer scheme: the entire data set is divided into small subsamples, on which nearest neighbor predictions are made, and then a final decision is reached by aggregating the predictions on subsamples by majority voting. We name this method the big Nearest Neighbor (bigNN) classifier, and provide its rates of convergence under minimal assumptions, in terms of both the excess risk and the classification instability, which are proven to be the same rates as the oracle nearest neighbor classifier and cannot be improved. To significantly reduce the prediction time that is required for achieving the optimal rate, we also consider the pre-training acceleration technique applied to the bigNN method, with proven convergence rate. We find that in the distributed setting, the optimal choice of the neighbor $k$ should scale with both the total sample size and the number of partitions, and there is a theoretical upper limit for the latter. Numerical studies have verified the theoretical findings.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

Towards Run Time Estimation of the Gaussian Chemistry Code for SEAGrid Science Gateway

Accurate estimation of the run time of computational codes has a number of significant advantages for scientific computing. It is required information for optimal resource allocation, improving turnaround times and utilization of science gateways. Furthermore, it allows users to better plan and schedule their research, streamlining workflows and improving the overall productivity of cyberinfrastructure. Predicting run time is challenging, however. The inputs to scientific codes can be complex and high dimensional. Their relationship to the run time may be highly non-linear, and, in the most general case is completely arbitrary and thus unpredictable (i.e., simply a random mapping from inputs to run time). Most codes are not so arbitrary, however, and there has been significant prior research on predicting the run time of applications and workloads. Such predictions are generally application-specific, however. In this paper, we focus on the Gaussian computational chemistry code. We characterize a data set of runs from the SEAGrid science gateway with a number of different studies. We also explore a number of different potential regression methods and present promising future directions.

physics.comp-ph↗

arXiv2019

Diverse Exploration via Conjugate Policies for Policy Gradient Methods

We address the challenge of effective exploration while maintaining good performance in policy gradient methods. As a solution, we propose diverse exploration (DE) via conjugate policies. DE learns and deploys a set of conjugate policies which can be conveniently generated as a byproduct of conjugate gradient descent. We provide both theoretical and empirical results showing the effectiveness of DE at achieving exploration, improving policy performance, and the advantage of DE over exploration by random policy perturbations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

Distributed Nearest Neighbor Classification

Nearest neighbor is a popular nonparametric method for classification and regression with many appealing properties. In the big data era, the sheer volume and spatial/temporal disparity of big data may prohibit centrally processing and storing the data. This has imposed considerable hurdle for nearest neighbor predictions since the entire training data must be memorized. One effective way to overcome this issue is the distributed learning framework. Through majority voting, the distributed nearest neighbor classifier achieves the same rate of convergence as its oracle version in terms of both the regret and instability, up to a multiplicative constant that depends solely on the data dimension. The multiplicative difference can be eliminated by replacing majority voting with the weighted voting scheme. In addition, we provide sharp theoretical upper bounds of the number of subsamples in order for the distributed nearest neighbor classifier to reach the optimal convergence rate. It is interesting to note that the weighted voting scheme allows a larger number of subsamples than the majority voting one. Our findings are supported by numerical studies using both simulated and real data sets.

math.ST↗

arXiv2018

Learning Confidence Sets using Support Vector Machines

The goal of confidence-set learning in the binary classification setting is to construct two sets, each with a specific probability guarantee to cover a class. An observation outside the overlap of the two sets is deemed to be from one of the two classes, while the overlap is an ambiguity region which could belong to either class. Instead of plug-in approaches, we propose a support vector classifier to construct confidence sets in a flexible manner. Theoretically, we show that the proposed learner can control the non-coverage rates and minimize the ambiguity with high probability. Efficient algorithms are developed and numerical studies illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2017

Regularization after retention in ultrahigh dimensional linear regression models

In ultrahigh dimensional setting, independence screening has been both theoretically and empirically proved a useful variable selection framework with low computation cost. In this work, we propose a two-step framework by using marginal information in a different perspective from independence screening. In particular, we retain significant variables rather than screening out irrelevant ones. The new method is shown to be model selection consistent in the ultrahigh dimensional linear regression model. To improve the finite sample performance, we then introduce a three-step version and characterize its asymptotic behavior. Simulations and real data analysis show advantages of our method over independence screening and its iterative variants in certain regimes.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2017

Probabilistic Models for Daily Peak Loads at Distribution Feeders

Load forecasting at distribution networks is more challenging than load forecasting at transmission networks because its load pattern is more stochastic and unpredictable. To plan sufficient resources and estimate DER hosting capacity, it is invaluable for a distribution network planner to get the probabilistic distribution of daily peak-load under a feeder over long term. In this paper, we model the probabilistic distribution functions of daily peak-load under a feeder using power law distributions, which is tested by improved Kolmogorov Smirnov test enhanced by the Monte Carlo simulation approach. In addition, the uncertainty of the modeling is quantified using the bootstrap method. The methodology of parameter estimation of the probabilistic model and the hypothesis test is elaborated in detail. In the case studies, it is shown using measurement data sets that the daily peak loads under several feeders follow the power law distribution by applying the proposed testing methods.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2017

On Reject and Refine Options in Multicategory Classification

In many real applications of statistical learning, a decision made from misclassification can be too costly to afford; in this case, a reject option, which defers the decision until further investigation is conducted, is often preferred. In recent years, there has been much development for binary classification with a reject option. Yet, little progress has been made for the multicategory case. In this article, we propose margin-based multicategory classification methods with a reject option. In addition, and more importantly, we introduce a new and unique refine option for the multicategory problem, where the class of an observation is predicted to be from a set of class labels, whose cardinality is not necessarily one. The main advantage of both options lies in their capacity of identifying error-prone observations. Moreover, the refine option can provide more constructive information for classification by effectively ruling out implausible classes. Efficient implementations have been developed for the proposed methods. On the theoretical side, we offer a novel statistical learning theory and show a fast convergence rate of the excess $\ell$-risk of our methods with emphasis on diverging dimensionality and number of classes. The results can be further improved under a low noise assumption. A set of comprehensive simulation and real data studies has shown the usefulness of the new learning tools compared to regular multicategory classifiers. Detailed proofs of theorems and extended numerical results are included in the supplemental materials available online.

stat.ML↗