arXiv subjects

Xinkun Ai

Publications and source records attributed to Xinkun Ai.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

IDP-PGFE: An Interpretable Disruption Predictor based on Physics-Guided Feature Extraction

Disruption prediction has made rapid progress in recent years, especially in machine learning (ML)-based methods. Understanding why a predictor makes a certain prediction can be as crucial as the prediction's accuracy for future tokamak disruption predictors. The purpose of most disruption predictors is accuracy or cross-machine capability. However, if a disruption prediction model can be interpreted, it can tell why certain samples are classified as disruption precursors. This allows us to tell the types of incoming disruption and gives us insight into the mechanism of disruption. This paper designs a disruption predictor called Interpretable Disruption Predictor based On Physics-guided feature extraction (IDP-PGFE) on J-TEXT. The prediction performance of the model is effectively improved by extracting physics-guided features. A high-performance model is required to ensure the validity of the interpretation results. The interpretability study of IDP-PGFE provides an understanding of J-TEXT disruption and is generally consistent with existing comprehension of disruption. IDP-PGFE has been applied to the disruption due to continuously increasing density towards density limit experiments on J-TEXT. The time evolution of the PGFE features contribution demonstrates that the application of ECRH triggers radiation-caused disruption, which lowers the density at disruption. While the application of RMP indeed raises the density limit in J-TEXT. The interpretability study guides intuition on the physical mechanisms of density limit disruption that RMPs affect not only the MHD instabilities but also the radiation profile, which delays density limit disruption.

physics.plasm-ph↗

arXiv2024

Adaptive Anomaly Detection Disruption Prediction Starting from First Discharge on Tokamak

Plasma disruption presents a significant challenge in tokamak fusion, where it can cause severe damage and economic losses. Current disruption predictors mainly rely on data-driven methods, requiring extensive discharge data for training. However, future tokamaks require disruption prediction from the first shot, posing challenges of data scarcity during the early operation period. In this period disruption prediction aims to support safe exploration of operation range and accumulate necessary data to develop advanced prediction models. Thus, predictors must adapt to evolving plasma environments during this exploration phase. To address these issues, this study proposes a cross-tokamak adaptive deployment method using the Enhanced Convolutional Autoencoder Anomaly Detection (E-CAAD) predictor, enabling disruption prediction from the first shot of new devices. Experimental results indicate the ability of E-CAAD model trained on existing devices to effectively differentiate between disruption precursors and non-disruption samples on new devices, proving the feasibility of model cross-device transfer. Building upon this, adaptive learning from scratch and threshold adaptive adjustment strategies are proposed to achieve model cross-device transfer. The adaptive learning from scratch strategy enables the predictor to use scarce data during the early operation of the new device while rapidly adapting to changes in operation environment. The threshold adaptive adjustment strategy addresses the challenge of selecting warning thresholds on new devices where validation set is lacking, ensuring that the warning thresholds adapt to changes in the operation environment. Finally, experiments transferring the model from J-TEXT to EAST exhibit comparable performance to EAST models trained with ample data, achieving a TPR of 85.88% and a FPR of 6.15%, with a 20ms reserved MGI system reaction time.

physics.plasm-ph↗

arXiv2024

Cross-Tokamak Deployment Study of Plasma Disruption Predictors Based on Convolutional Autoencoder

In the initial stages of operation for future tokamak, facing limited data availability, deploying data-driven disruption predictors requires optimal performance with minimal use of new device data. This paper studies the issue of data utilization in data-driven disruption predictor during cross tokamak deployment. Current predictors primarily employ supervised learning methods and require a large number of disruption and non-disruption shots for training. However, the scarcity and high cost of obtaining disruption shots for future tokamaks result in imbalanced training datasets, reducing the performance of supervised learning predictors. To solve this problem, we propose the Enhanced Convolutional Autoencoder Anomaly Detection (E-CAAD) predictor. E-CAAD can be only trained by normal samples from non-disruption shots and can also be trained by disruption precursor samples when disruption shots occur. This model not only overcomes the sample imbalance in supervised learning predictors, but also overcomes the inefficient dataset utilization faced by traditional anomaly detection predictors that cannot use disruption precursor samples for training, making it more suitable for the unpredictable datasets of future tokamaks. Compared to traditional anomaly detection predictor, the E-CAAD predictor performs better in disruption prediction and is deployed faster on new devices. Additionally, we explore strategies to accelerate deployment of E-CAAD predictor on the new device by using data from existing devices. Two deployment strategies are presented: mixing data from existing devices and fine-tuning the predictor trained on existing devices. Our comparisons indicate that the data from existing device can accelerate the deployment of predictor on new device. Notably, the fine-tuning strategy yields the fastest deployment on new device among the designed strategies.

physics.plasm-ph↗

arXiv2023

Ball Mill Fault Prediction Based on Deep Convolutional Auto-Encoding Network

Ball mills play a critical role in modern mining operations, making their bearing failures a significant concern due to the potential loss of production efficiency and economic consequences. This paper presents an anomaly detection method based on Deep Convolutional Auto-encoding Neural Networks (DCAN) for addressing the issue of ball mill bearing fault detection. The proposed approach leverages vibration data collected during normal operation for training, overcoming challenges such as labeling issues and data imbalance often encountered in supervised learning methods. DCAN includes the modules of convolutional feature extraction and transposed convolutional feature reconstruction, demonstrating exceptional capabilities in signal processing and feature extraction. Additionally, the paper describes the practical deployment of the DCAN-based anomaly detection model for bearing fault detection, utilizing data from the ball mill bearings of Wuhan Iron & Steel Resources Group and fault data from NASA's bearing vibration dataset. Experimental results validate the DCAN model's reliability in recognizing fault vibration patterns. This method holds promise for enhancing bearing fault detection efficiency, reducing production interruptions, and lowering maintenance costs.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Cross-tokamak Disruption Prediction based on Physics-Guided Feature Extraction and domain adaptation

The high acquisition cost and the significant demand for disruptive discharges for data-driven disruption prediction models in future tokamaks pose an inherent contradiction in disruption prediction research. In this paper, we demonstrated a novel approach to predict disruption in a future tokamak using only a few discharges. The first step is to use the existing understanding of physics to extract physics-guided features from the diagnostic signals of each tokamak, called physics-guided feature extraction (PGFE). The second step is to align a few data from the future tokamak (target domain) and a large amount of data from existing tokamak (source domain) based on a domain adaptation algorithm called CORrelation ALignment (CORAL). It is the first attempt at applying domain adaptation in the task of disruption prediction. PGFE has been successfully applied in J-TEXT to predict disruption with excellent performance. PGFE can also reduce the data volume requirements due to extracting the less device-specific features, thereby establishing a solid foundation for cross-tokamak disruption prediction. We have further improved CORAL (supervised CORAL, S-CORAL) to enhance its appropriateness in feature alignment for the disruption prediction task. To simulate the existing and future tokamak case, we selected J-TEXT as the existing tokamak and EAST as the future tokamak, which has a large gap in the ranges of plasma parameters. The utilization of the S-CORAL improves the disruption prediction performance on future tokamak. Through interpretable analysis, we discovered that the learned knowledge of the disruption prediction model through this approach exhibits more similarities to the model trained on large data volumes of future tokamak.

physics.plasm-ph↗

arXiv2023

Disruption Precursor Onset Time Study Based on Semi-supervised Anomaly Detection

The full understanding of plasma disruption in tokamaks is currently lacking, and data-driven methods are extensively used for disruption prediction. However, most existing data-driven disruption predictors employ supervised learning techniques, which require labeled training data. The manual labeling of disruption precursors is a tedious and challenging task, as some precursors are difficult to accurately identify, limiting the potential of machine learning models. To address this issue, commonly used labeling methods assume that the precursor onset occurs at a fixed time before the disruption, which may not be consistent for different types of disruptions or even the same type of disruption, due to the different speeds at which plasma instabilities escalate. This leads to mislabeled samples and suboptimal performance of the supervised learning predictor. In this paper, we present a disruption prediction method based on anomaly detection that overcomes the drawbacks of unbalanced positive and negative data samples and inaccurately labeled disruption precursor samples. We demonstrate the effectiveness and reliability of anomaly detection predictors based on different algorithms on J-TEXT and EAST to evaluate the reliability of the precursor onset time inferred by the anomaly detection predictor. The precursor onset times inferred by these predictors reveal that the labeling methods have room for improvement as the onset times of different shots are not necessarily the same. Finally, we optimize precursor labeling using the onset times inferred by the anomaly detection predictor and test the optimized labels on supervised learning disruption predictors. The results on J-TEXT and EAST show that the models trained on the optimized labels outperform those trained on fixed onset time labels.

physics.plasm-ph↗

arXiv2022

Transferable Cross-Tokamak Disruption Prediction with Deep Hybrid Neural Network Feature Extractor

Predicting disruptions across different tokamaks is a great obstacle to overcome. Future tokamaks can hardly tolerate disruptions at high performance discharge. Few disruption discharges at high performance can hardly compose an abundant training set, which makes it difficult for current data-driven methods to obtain an acceptable result. A machine learning method capable of transferring a disruption prediction model trained on one tokamak to another is required to solve the problem. The key is a disruption prediction model containing a feature extractor that is able to extract common disruption precursor traces in tokamak diagnostic data, and a transferable disruption classifier. Based on the concerns above, the paper first presents a deep fusion feature extractor designed specifically for extracting disruption precursor features from common diagnostics on tokamaks according to currently known precursors of disruption, providing a promising foundation for transferable models. The fusion feature extractor is proved by comparing with manual feature extraction on J-TEXT. Based on the feature extractor trained on J-TEXT, the disruption prediction model was transferred to EAST data with mere 20 discharges from EAST experiment. The performance is comparable with a model trained with 1896 discharges from EAST. From the comparison among other model training scenarios, transfer learning showed its potential in predicting disruptions across different tokamaks.

physics.plasm-ph↗