Searcharxiv⌕ Search

arXiv subjects

Xinrun Wang

Publications and source records attributed to Xinrun Wang.

53 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
arXiv2024

Market-GAN: Adding Control to Financial Market Data Generation with Semantic Context

Financial simulators play an important role in enhancing forecasting accuracy, managing risks, and fostering strategic financial decision-making. Despite the development of financial market simulation methodologies, existing frameworks often struggle with adapting to specialized simulation context. We pinpoint the challenges as i) current financial datasets do not contain context labels; ii) current techniques are not designed to generate financial data with context as control, which demands greater precision compared to other modalities; iii) the inherent difficulties in generating context-aligned, high-fidelity data given the non-stationary, noisy nature of financial data. To address these challenges, our contributions are: i) we proposed the Contextual Market Dataset with market dynamics, stock ticker, and history state as context, leveraging a market dynamics modeling method that combines linear regression and Dynamic Time Warping clustering to extract market dynamics; ii) we present Market-GAN, a novel architecture incorporating a Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) for the controllable generation with context, an autoencoder for learning low-dimension features, and supervisors for knowledge transfer; iii) we introduce a two-stage training scheme to ensure that Market-GAN captures the intrinsic market distribution with multiple objectives. In the pertaining stage, with the use of the autoencoder and supervisors, we prepare the generator with a better initialization for the adversarial training stage. We propose a set of holistic evaluation metrics that consider alignment, fidelity, data usability on downstream tasks, and market facts. We evaluate Market-GAN with the Dow Jones Industrial Average data from 2000 to 2023 and showcase superior performance in comparison to 4 state-of-the-art time-series generative models.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2024

Synapse: Trajectory-as-Exemplar Prompting with Memory for Computer Control

Building agents with large language models (LLMs) for computer control is a burgeoning research area, where the agent receives computer states and performs actions to complete complex tasks. Previous computer agents have demonstrated the benefits of in-context learning (ICL); however, their performance is hindered by several issues. First, the limited context length of LLMs and complex computer states restrict the number of exemplars, as a single webpage can consume the entire context. Second, the exemplars in current methods, such as high-level plans and multi-choice questions, cannot represent complete trajectories, leading to suboptimal performance in long-horizon tasks. Third, existing computer agents rely on task-specific exemplars and overlook the similarity among tasks, resulting in poor generalization to novel tasks. To address these challenges, we introduce Synapse, a computer agent featuring three key components: i) state abstraction, which filters out task-irrelevant information from raw states, allowing more exemplars within the limited context, ii) trajectory-as-exemplar prompting, which prompts the LLM with complete trajectories of the abstracted states and actions to improve multi-step decision-making, and iii) exemplar memory, which stores the embeddings of exemplars and retrieves them via similarity search for generalization to novel tasks. We evaluate Synapse on MiniWoB++, a standard task suite, and Mind2Web, a real-world website benchmark. In MiniWoB++, Synapse achieves a 99.2% average success rate (a 10% relative improvement) across 64 tasks using demonstrations from only 48 tasks. Notably, Synapse is the first ICL method to solve the book-flight task in MiniWoB++. Synapse also exhibits a 56% relative improvement in average step success rate over the previous state-of-the-art prompting scheme in Mind2Web.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2023

keqing: knowledge-based question answering is a nature chain-of-thought mentor of LLM

Large language models (LLMs) have exhibited remarkable performance on various natural language processing (NLP) tasks, especially for question answering. However, in the face of problems beyond the scope of knowledge, these LLMs tend to talk nonsense with a straight face, where the potential solution could be incorporating an Information Retrieval (IR) module and generating response based on these retrieved knowledge. In this paper, we present a novel framework to assist LLMs, such as ChatGPT, to retrieve question-related structured information on the knowledge graph, and demonstrate that Knowledge-based question answering (Keqing) could be a nature Chain-of-Thought (CoT) mentor to guide the LLM to sequentially find the answer entities of a complex question through interpretable logical chains. Specifically, the workflow of Keqing will execute decomposing a complex question according to predefined templates, retrieving candidate entities on knowledge graph, reasoning answers of sub-questions, and finally generating response with reasoning paths, which greatly improves the reliability of LLM's response. The experimental results on KBQA datasets show that Keqing can achieve competitive performance and illustrate the logic of answering each question.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2023

EarnHFT: Efficient Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning for High Frequency Trading

High-frequency trading (HFT) uses computer algorithms to make trading decisions in short time scales (e.g., second-level), which is widely used in the Cryptocurrency (Crypto) market (e.g., Bitcoin). Reinforcement learning (RL) in financial research has shown stellar performance on many quantitative trading tasks. However, most methods focus on low-frequency trading, e.g., day-level, which cannot be directly applied to HFT because of two challenges. First, RL for HFT involves dealing with extremely long trajectories (e.g., 2.4 million steps per month), which is hard to optimize and evaluate. Second, the dramatic price fluctuations and market trend changes of Crypto make existing algorithms fail to maintain satisfactory performance. To tackle these challenges, we propose an Efficient hieArchical Reinforcement learNing method for High Frequency Trading (EarnHFT), a novel three-stage hierarchical RL framework for HFT. In stage I, we compute a Q-teacher, i.e., the optimal action value based on dynamic programming, for enhancing the performance and training efficiency of second-level RL agents. In stage II, we construct a pool of diverse RL agents for different market trends, distinguished by return rates, where hundreds of RL agents are trained with different preferences of return rates and only a tiny fraction of them will be selected into the pool based on their profitability. In stage III, we train a minute-level router which dynamically picks a second-level agent from the pool to achieve stable performance across different markets. Through extensive experiments in various market trends on Crypto markets in a high-fidelity simulation trading environment, we demonstrate that EarnHFT significantly outperforms 6 state-of-art baselines in 6 popular financial criteria, exceeding the runner-up by 30% in profitability.

q-fin.TR↗
arXiv2023

Controlling Type Confounding in Ad Hoc Teamwork with Instance-wise Teammate Feedback Rectification

Ad hoc teamwork requires an agent to cooperate with unknown teammates without prior coordination. Many works propose to abstract teammate instances into high-level representation of types and then pre-train the best response for each type. However, most of them do not consider the distribution of teammate instances within a type. This could expose the agent to the hidden risk of \emph{type confounding}. In the worst case, the best response for an abstract teammate type could be the worst response for all specific instances of that type. This work addresses the issue from the lens of causal inference. We first theoretically demonstrate that this phenomenon is due to the spurious correlation brought by uncontrolled teammate distribution. Then, we propose our solution, CTCAT, which disentangles such correlation through an instance-wise teammate feedback rectification. This operation reweights the interaction of teammate instances within a shared type to reduce the influence of type confounding. The effect of CTCAT is evaluated in multiple domains, including classic ad hoc teamwork tasks and real-world scenarios. Results show that CTCAT is robust to the influence of type confounding, a practical issue that directly hazards the robustness of our trained agents but was unnoticed in previous works.

cs.MA↗
arXiv2023

PRUDEX-Compass: Towards Systematic Evaluation of Reinforcement Learning in Financial Markets

The financial markets, which involve more than $90 trillion market capitals, attract the attention of innumerable investors around the world. Recently, reinforcement learning in financial markets (FinRL) has emerged as a promising direction to train agents for making profitable investment decisions. However, the evaluation of most FinRL methods only focuses on profit-related measures and ignores many critical axes, which are far from satisfactory for financial practitioners to deploy these methods into real-world financial markets. Therefore, we introduce PRUDEX-Compass, which has 6 axes, i.e., Profitability, Risk-control, Universality, Diversity, rEliability, and eXplainability, with a total of 17 measures for a systematic evaluation. Specifically, i) we propose AlphaMix+ as a strong FinRL baseline, which leverages mixture-of-experts (MoE) and risk-sensitive approaches to make diversified risk-aware investment decisions, ii) we evaluate 8 FinRL methods in 4 long-term real-world datasets of influential financial markets to demonstrate the usage of our PRUDEX-Compass, iii) PRUDEX-Compass together with 4 real-world datasets, standard implementation of 8 FinRL methods and a portfolio management environment is released as public resources to facilitate the design and comparison of new FinRL methods. We hope that PRUDEX-Compass can not only shed light on future FinRL research to prevent untrustworthy results from stagnating FinRL into successful industry deployment but also provide a new challenging algorithm evaluation scenario for the reinforcement learning (RL) community.

q-fin.TR↗
arXiv2023

Population-size-Aware Policy Optimization for Mean-Field Games

In this work, we attempt to bridge the two fields of finite-agent and infinite-agent games, by studying how the optimal policies of agents evolve with the number of agents (population size) in mean-field games, an agent-centric perspective in contrast to the existing works focusing typically on the convergence of the empirical distribution of the population. To this end, the premise is to obtain the optimal policies of a set of finite-agent games with different population sizes. However, either deriving the closed-form solution for each game is theoretically intractable, training a distinct policy for each game is computationally intensive, or directly applying the policy trained in a game to other games is sub-optimal. We address these challenges through the Population-size-Aware Policy Optimization (PAPO). Our contributions are three-fold. First, to efficiently generate efficient policies for games with different population sizes, we propose PAPO, which unifies two natural options (augmentation and hypernetwork) and achieves significantly better performance. PAPO consists of three components: i) the population-size encoding which transforms the original value of population size to an equivalent encoding to avoid training collapse, ii) a hypernetwork to generate a distinct policy for each game conditioned on the population size, and iii) the population size as an additional input to the generated policy. Next, we construct a multi-task-based training procedure to efficiently train the neural networks of PAPO by sampling data from multiple games with different population sizes. Finally, extensive experiments on multiple environments show the significant superiority of PAPO over baselines, and the analysis of the evolution of the generated policies further deepens our understanding of the two fields of finite-agent and infinite-agent games.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Offline Equilibrium Finding

Offline reinforcement learning (offline RL) is an emerging field that has recently begun gaining attention across various application domains due to its ability to learn strategies from earlier collected datasets. Offline RL proved very successful, paving a path to solving previously intractable real-world problems, and we aim to generalize this paradigm to a multiplayer-game setting. To this end, we introduce a problem of offline equilibrium finding (OEF) and construct multiple types of datasets across a wide range of games using several established methods. To solve the OEF problem, we design a model-based framework that can directly apply any online equilibrium finding algorithm to the OEF setting while making minimal changes. The three most prominent contemporary online equilibrium finding algorithms are adapted to the context of OEF, creating three model-based variants: OEF-PSRO and OEF-CFR, which generalize the widely-used algorithms PSRO and Deep CFR to compute Nash equilibria (NEs), and OEF-JPSRO, which generalizes the JPSRO to calculate (Coarse) Correlated equilibria ((C)CEs). We also combine the behavior cloning policy with the model-based policy to further improve the performance and provide a theoretical guarantee of the solution quality. Extensive experimental results demonstrate the superiority of our approach over offline RL algorithms and the importance of using model-based methods for OEF problems. We hope our work will contribute to advancing research in large-scale equilibrium finding.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2022

A Game-Theoretic Perspective of Generalization in Reinforcement Learning

Generalization in reinforcement learning (RL) is of importance for real deployment of RL algorithms. Various schemes are proposed to address the generalization issues, including transfer learning, multi-task learning and meta learning, as well as the robust and adversarial reinforcement learning. However, there is not a unified formulation of the various schemes, as well as the comprehensive comparisons of methods across different schemes. In this work, we propose a game-theoretic framework for the generalization in reinforcement learning, named GiRL, where an RL agent is trained against an adversary over a set of tasks, where the adversary can manipulate the distributions over tasks within a given threshold. With different configurations, GiRL can reduce the various schemes mentioned above. To solve GiRL, we adapt the widely-used method in game theory, policy space response oracle (PSRO) with the following three important modifications: i) we use model-agnostic meta learning (MAML) as the best-response oracle, ii) we propose a modified projected replicated dynamics, i.e., R-PRD, which ensures the computed meta-strategy of the adversary fall in the threshold, and iii) we also propose a protocol for the few-shot learning of the multiple strategies during testing. Extensive experiments on MuJoCo environments demonstrate that our proposed methods can outperform existing baselines, e.g., MAML.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2022

DO-GAN: A Double Oracle Framework for Generative Adversarial Networks

In this paper, we propose a new approach to train Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) where we deploy a double-oracle framework using the generator and discriminator oracles. GAN is essentially a two-player zero-sum game between the generator and the discriminator. Training GANs is challenging as a pure Nash equilibrium may not exist and even finding the mixed Nash equilibrium is difficult as GANs have a large-scale strategy space. In DO-GAN, we extend the double oracle framework to GANs. We first generalize the players' strategies as the trained models of generator and discriminator from the best response oracles. We then compute the meta-strategies using a linear program. For scalability of the framework where multiple generators and discriminator best responses are stored in the memory, we propose two solutions: 1) pruning the weakly-dominated players' strategies to keep the oracles from becoming intractable; 2) applying continual learning to retain the previous knowledge of the networks. We apply our framework to established GAN architectures such as vanilla GAN, Deep Convolutional GAN, Spectral Normalization GAN and Stacked GAN. Finally, we conduct experiments on MNIST, CIFAR-10 and CelebA datasets and show that DO-GAN variants have significant improvements in both subjective qualitative evaluation and quantitative metrics, compared with their respective GAN architectures.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2022

A Unified Perspective on Deep Equilibrium Finding

Extensive-form games provide a versatile framework for modeling interactions of multiple agents subjected to imperfect observations and stochastic events. In recent years, two paradigms, policy space response oracles (PSRO) and counterfactual regret minimization (CFR), showed that extensive-form games may indeed be solved efficiently. Both of them are capable of leveraging deep neural networks to tackle the scalability issues inherent to extensive-form games and we refer to them as deep equilibrium-finding algorithms. Even though PSRO and CFR share some similarities, they are often regarded as distinct and the answer to the question of which is superior to the other remains ambiguous. Instead of answering this question directly, in this work we propose a unified perspective on deep equilibrium finding that generalizes both PSRO and CFR. Our four main contributions include: i) a novel response oracle (RO) which computes Q values as well as reaching probability values and baseline values; ii) two transform modules -- a pre-transform and a post-transform -- represented by neural networks transforming the outputs of RO to a latent additive space (LAS), and then the LAS to action probabilities for execution; iii) two average oracles -- local average oracle (LAO) and global average oracle (GAO) -- where LAO operates on LAS and GAO is used for evaluation only; and iv) a novel method inspired by fictitious play that optimizes the transform modules and average oracles, and automatically selects the optimal combination of components of the two frameworks. Experiments on Leduc poker game demonstrate that our approach can outperform both frameworks.

cs.GT↗
arXiv2021

Solving Large-Scale Extensive-Form Network Security Games via Neural Fictitious Self-Play

Securing networked infrastructures is important in the real world. The problem of deploying security resources to protect against an attacker in networked domains can be modeled as Network Security Games (NSGs). Unfortunately, existing approaches, including the deep learning-based approaches, are inefficient to solve large-scale extensive-form NSGs. In this paper, we propose a novel learning paradigm, NSG-NFSP, to solve large-scale extensive-form NSGs based on Neural Fictitious Self-Play (NFSP). Our main contributions include: i) reforming the best response (BR) policy network in NFSP to be a mapping from action-state pair to action-value, to make the calculation of BR possible in NSGs; ii) converting the average policy network of an NFSP agent into a metric-based classifier, helping the agent to assign distributions only on legal actions rather than all actions; iii) enabling NFSP with high-level actions, which can benefit training efficiency and stability in NSGs; and iv) leveraging information contained in graphs of NSGs by learning efficient graph node embeddings. Our algorithm significantly outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms in both scalability and solution quality.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2021

CFR-MIX: Solving Imperfect Information Extensive-Form Games with Combinatorial Action Space

In many real-world scenarios, a team of agents coordinate with each other to compete against an opponent. The challenge of solving this type of game is that the team's joint action space grows exponentially with the number of agents, which results in the inefficiency of the existing algorithms, e.g., Counterfactual Regret Minimization (CFR). To address this problem, we propose a new framework of CFR: CFR-MIX. Firstly, we propose a new strategy representation that represents a joint action strategy using individual strategies of all agents and a consistency relationship to maintain the cooperation between agents. To compute the equilibrium with individual strategies under the CFR framework, we transform the consistency relationship between strategies to the consistency relationship between the cumulative regret values. Furthermore, we propose a novel decomposition method over cumulative regret values to guarantee the consistency relationship between the cumulative regret values. Finally, we introduce our new algorithm CFR-MIX which employs a mixing layer to estimate cumulative regret values of joint actions as a non-linear combination of cumulative regret values of individual actions. Experimental results show that CFR-MIX outperforms existing algorithms on various games significantly.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2021

RMIX: Learning Risk-Sensitive Policies for Cooperative Reinforcement Learning Agents

Current value-based multi-agent reinforcement learning methods optimize individual Q values to guide individuals' behaviours via centralized training with decentralized execution (CTDE). However, such expected, i.e., risk-neutral, Q value is not sufficient even with CTDE due to the randomness of rewards and the uncertainty in environments, which causes the failure of these methods to train coordinating agents in complex environments. To address these issues, we propose RMIX, a novel cooperative MARL method with the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) measure over the learned distributions of individuals' Q values. Specifically, we first learn the return distributions of individuals to analytically calculate CVaR for decentralized execution. Then, to handle the temporal nature of the stochastic outcomes during executions, we propose a dynamic risk level predictor for risk level tuning. Finally, we optimize the CVaR policies with CVaR values used to estimate the target in TD error during centralized training and the CVaR values are used as auxiliary local rewards to update the local distribution via Quantile Regression loss. Empirically, we show that our method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods on challenging StarCraft II tasks, demonstrating enhanced coordination and improved sample efficiency.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2020

Efficient Reservoir Management through Deep Reinforcement Learning

Dams impact downstream river dynamics through flow regulation and disruption of upstream-downstream linkages. However, current dam operation is far from satisfactory due to the inability to respond the complicated and uncertain dynamics of the upstream-downstream system and various usages of the reservoir. Even further, the unsatisfactory dam operation can cause floods in downstream areas. Therefore, we leverage reinforcement learning (RL) methods to compute efficient dam operation guidelines in this work. Specifically, we build offline simulators with real data and different mathematical models for the upstream inflow, i.e., generalized least square (GLS) and dynamic linear model (DLM), then use the simulator to train the state-of-the-art RL algorithms, including DDPG, TD3 and SAC. Experiments show that the simulator with DLM can efficiently model the inflow dynamics in the upstream and the dam operation policies trained by RL algorithms significantly outperform the human-generated policy.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2020

Learning to Collaborate in Multi-Module Recommendation via Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning without Communication

With the rise of online e-commerce platforms, more and more customers prefer to shop online. To sell more products, online platforms introduce various modules to recommend items with different properties such as huge discounts. A web page often consists of different independent modules. The ranking policies of these modules are decided by different teams and optimized individually without cooperation, which might result in competition between modules. Thus, the global policy of the whole page could be sub-optimal. In this paper, we propose a novel multi-agent cooperative reinforcement learning approach with the restriction that different modules cannot communicate. Our contributions are three-fold. Firstly, inspired by a solution concept in game theory named correlated equilibrium, we design a signal network to promote cooperation of all modules by generating signals (vectors) for different modules. Secondly, an entropy-regularized version of the signal network is proposed to coordinate agents' exploration of the optimal global policy. Furthermore, experiments based on real-world e-commerce data demonstrate that our algorithm obtains superior performance over baselines.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2019

Inducing Cooperation via Team Regret Minimization based Multi-Agent Deep Reinforcement Learning

Existing value-factorized based Multi-Agent deep Reinforce-ment Learning (MARL) approaches are well-performing invarious multi-agent cooperative environment under thecen-tralized training and decentralized execution(CTDE) scheme,where all agents are trained together by the centralized valuenetwork and each agent execute its policy independently. How-ever, an issue remains open: in the centralized training process,when the environment for the team is partially observable ornon-stationary, i.e., the observation and action informationof all the agents cannot represent the global states, existingmethods perform poorly and sample inefficiently. Regret Min-imization (RM) can be a promising approach as it performswell in partially observable and fully competitive settings.However, it tends to model others as opponents and thus can-not work well under the CTDE scheme. In this work, wepropose a novel team RM based Bayesian MARL with threekey contributions: (a) we design a novel RM method to traincooperative agents as a team and obtain a team regret-basedpolicy for that team; (b) we introduce a novel method to de-compose the team regret to generate the policy for each agentfor decentralized execution; (c) to further improve the perfor-mance, we leverage a differential particle filter (a SequentialMonte Carlo method) network to get an accurate estimation ofthe state for each agent. Experimental results on two-step ma-trix games (cooperative game) and battle games (large-scalemixed cooperative-competitive games) demonstrate that ouralgorithm significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods.

cs.AI↗