arXiv subjects

Xuebao Li

Publications and source records attributed to Xuebao Li.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

F10.7 Index Prediction: A Multiscale Decomposition Strategy with Wavelet Transform for Performance Optimization

In this study, we construct Dataset A for training, validation, and testing, and Dataset B to evaluate generalization. We propose a novel F10.7 index forecasting method using wavelet decomposition, which feeds F10.7 together with its decomposed approximate and detail signals into the iTransformer model. We also incorporate the International Sunspot Number (ISN) and its wavelet-decomposed signals to assess their influence on prediction performance. Our optimal method is then compared with the latest method from S. Yan et al. (2025) and three operational models (SWPC, BGS, CLS). Additionally, we transfer our method to the PatchTST model used in H. Ye et al. (2024) and compare our method with theirs on Dataset B. Key findings include: (1) The wavelet-based combination methods overall outperform the baseline using only F10.7 index. The prediction performance improves as higher-level approximate and detail signals are incrementally added. The Combination 6 method integrating F10.7 with its first to fifth level approximate and detail signals outperforms methods using only approximate or detail signals. (2) Incorporating ISN and its wavelet-decomposed signals does not enhance prediction performance. (3) The Combination 6 method significantly surpasses S. Yan et al. (2025) and three operational models, with RMSE, MAE, and MAPE reduced by 18.22%, 15.09%, and 8.57%, respectively, against the former method. It also excels across four different conditions of solar activity. (4) Our method demonstrates superior generalization and prediction capability over the method of H. Ye et al. (2024) across all forecast horizons. To our knowledge, this is the first application of wavelet decomposition in F10.7 prediction, substantially improving forecast performance.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2026

Prediction of Major Solar Flares Using Interpretable Class-dependent Reward Framework with Active Region Magnetograms and Domain Knowledge

In this work, we develop, for the first time, a supervised classification framework with class-dependent rewards (CDR) to predict $\geq$MM flares within 24 hr. We construct multiple datasets, covering knowledge-informed features and line-of sight (LOS) magnetograms. We also apply three deep learning models (CNN, CNN-BiLSTM, and Transformer) and three CDR counterparts (CDR-CNN, CDR-CNN-BiLSTM, and CDR-Transformer). First, we analyze the importance of LOS magnetic field parameters with the Transformer, then compare its performance using LOS-only, vector-only, and combined magnetic field parameters. Second, we compare flare prediction performance based on CDR models versus deep learning counterparts. Third, we perform sensitivity analysis on reward engineering for CDR models. Fourth, we use the SHAP method for model interpretability. Finally, we conduct performance comparison between our models and NASA/CCMC. The main findings are: (1)Among LOS feature combinations, R_VALUE and AREA_ACR consistently yield the best results. (2)Transformer achieves better performance with combined LOS and vector magnetic field data than with either alone. (3)Models using knowledge-informed features outperform those using magnetograms. (4)While CNN and CNN-BiLSTM outperform their CDR counterparts on magnetograms, CDR-Transformer is slightly superior to its deep learning counterpart when using knowledge-informed features. Among all models, CDR-Transformer achieves the best performance. (5)The predictive performance of the CDR models is not overly sensitive to the reward choices.(6)Through SHAP analysis, the CDR model tends to regard TOTUSJH as more important, while the Transformer tends to prioritize R_VALUE more.(7)Under identical prediction time and active region (AR) number, the CDR-Transformer shows superior predictive capabilities compared to NASA/CCMC.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Operational Solar Flare Forecasting System Using an Explainable Large Language Model

This study focuses on forecasting major (>=M-class) solar flares that can severely impact the near-Earth environment. We construct two types of datasets using the Space Weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP), and develop a flare prediction network based on large language model (LLMFlareNet). We apply SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to explain the model predictions. We develop an operational forecasting system based on the LLMFlareNet model. We adopt a daily mode for performance comparison across various operational forecasting systems under identical active region (AR) number and prediction date, using daily operational observational data. The main results are as follows. (1) Through ablation experiments and comparison with baseline models, LLMFlareNet achieves the best TSS scores of 0.720 +/- 0.040 on the ten cross-validation (CV) dataset with mixed ARs. (2) By both global and local SHAP analyses, we identify that R_VALUE is the most influential physical feature for the prediction of LLMFlareNet, aligning with flare magnetic reconnection theory. (3) In daily mode, LLMFlareNet achieves TSS scores of 0.680/0.571 (0.689/0.661, respectively) on the dataset with single/mixed ARs, markedly outperforming NASA/CCMC (SolarFlareNet, respectively). This work introduces the first application of a large language model as a universal computation engine with explainability method in this domain, and presents the first comparison between operational flare forecasting systems in daily mode. The proposed LLMFlareNet-based system demonstrates substantial improvements over existing systems.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

Prediction of Large Solar Flares Based on SHARP and HED Magnetic Field Parameters

The existing flare prediction primarily relies on photospheric magnetic field parameters from the entire active region (AR), such as Space-Weather HMI Activity Region Patches (SHARP) parameters. However, these parameters may not capture the details the AR evolution preceding flares. The magnetic structure within the core area of an AR is essential for predicting large solar flares. This paper utilizes the area of high photospheric free energy density (HED region) as a proxy for the AR core region. We construct two datasets: SHARP and HED datasets. The ARs contained in both datasets are identical. Furthermore, the start and end times for the same AR in both datasets are identical. We develop six models for 24-hour solar flare forecasting, utilizing SHARP and HED datasets. We then compare their categorical and probabilistic forecasting performance. Additionally, we conduct an analysis of parameter importance. The main results are as follows: (1) Among the six solar flare prediction models, the models using HED parameters outperform those using SHARP parameters in both categorical and probabilistic prediction, indicating the important role of the HED region in the flare initiation process. (2) The Transformer flare prediction model stands out significantly in True Skill Statistic (TSS) and Brier Skill Score (BSS), surpassing the other models. (3) In parameter importance analysis, the total photospheric free magnetic energy density ($\mathrm {E_{free}}$) within the HED parameters excels in both categorical and probabilistic forecasting. Similarly, among the SHARP parameters, the R_VALUE stands out as the most effective parameter for both categorical and probabilistic forecasting.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

Survey of Magnetic Field Parameters Associated With Large Solar Flares

Until now, how the magnetic fields in M/X-class flaring active regions (ARs) differ from C-class flaring ARs remains unclear. Here, we calculate the key magnetic field parameters within the area of high photospheric free energy density (HED region) for 323 ARs (217 C- and 106 M$/$X-flaring ARs), including total photospheric free magnetic energy density E$_{free}$, total unsigned magnetic flux $Φ$$_{HED}$, mean unsigned current helicity h$_{c}$, length of the polarity inversion lines $L$$_{PIL}$ with a steep horizontal magnetic gradient, etc., and compare these with flare/coronal mass ejection (CME) properties. We first show the quantitative relations among the flare intensity, the eruptive character and $Φ$$_{HED}$. We reveal that $Φ$$_{HED}$ is a measure for the GOES flux upper limit of the flares in a given region. For a given $Φ$$_{HED}$, there exists the lower limit of F$_\mathrm{SXR}$ for eruptive flares. This means that only the relatively strong flares with the large fraction of energy release compared to the total free energy are likely to generate a CME. We also find that the combinations of E$_{free}$-$L$$_{PIL}$ and E$_{free}$-h$_{c}$ present a good ability to distinguish between C-class and M$/$X-class flaring ARs. Using determined critical values of E$_{free}$ and $L$$_{PIL}$, one predicts correctly 93 out of 106 M/X-class flaring ARs and 159/217 C-class flaring ARs. The large $L$$_{PIL}$ or h$_{c}$ for M$/$X-class flaring ARs probably implies the presence of a compact current with twisted magnetic fields winding about it.

astro-ph.SR↗