LoopPerm-CPD: A Robust Loop Permutation Framework for Automatic Multiple Change-Point Detection in Longitudinal Data
Human viral challenge studies, in which participants are deliberately inoculated with influenza strains such as H1N1 or H3N2 and monitored through longitudinal transcriptomic profiling before and after inoculation, are critical for characterizing dynamic biological immune responses to viral infection. A key analytical goal in such settings is to detect critical transition times, or change points, at which an underlying trajectory shifts direction or rate, indicating events such as the onset of an immune response or recovery. However, change-point detection in these longitudinal data is fundamentally challenging because observations are often sparse and irregularly spaced, sample sizes are small, outliers are common, and the number of change points is unknown in advance. To address these challenges, we propose LoopPerm-CPD, a robust change-point detection approach with a built-in loop permutation procedure for automatic multiple change-point detection. The method evaluates candidate slope change points and assesses their significance using within-subject circular permutation combined with binary segmentation, jointly estimating both the number and locations of change points. The accompanying R package, LoopPerm-CPD, implements this framework and flexibly accommodates generalized least squares, quantile regression, and quantile rank-score statistics for different types of longitudinal outcomes. The proposed approach is evaluated through simulations, demonstrating Type I error control and improved power compared with competing methods. Applied to real data, the framework identifies interpretable transition points in multiple human respiratory viral inoculation studies. Together, these results establish LoopPerm-CPD and its companion software as a robust and user-friendly tool for change-point detection in complex human longitudinal cohort data.