arXiv subjects

Y. Tsapras

Publications and source records attributed to Y. Tsapras.

At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources

arXiv2010

Bayesian analysis of caustic-crossing microlensing events

Aims: Caustic-crossing binary-lens microlensing events are important anomalous events because they are capable of detecting an extrasolar planet companion orbiting the lens star. Fast and robust modelling methods are thus of prime interest in helping to decide whether a planet is detected by an event. Cassan (2008) introduced a new set of parameters to model binary-lens events, which are closely related to properties of the light curve. In this work, we explain how Bayesian priors can be added to this framework, and investigate on interesting options. Methods: We develop a mathematical formulation that allows us to compute analytically the priors on the new parameters, given some previous knowledge about other physical quantities. We explicitly compute the priors for a number of interesting cases, and show how this can be implemented in a fully Bayesian, Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Results: Using Bayesian priors can accelerate microlens fitting codes by reducing the time spent considering physically implausible models, and helps us to discriminate between alternative models based on the physical plausibility of their parameters.

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arXiv2010

A Cold Neptune-Mass Planet OGLE-2007-BLG-368Lb: Cold Neptunes Are Common

We present the discovery of a Neptune-mass planet OGLE-2007-BLG-368Lb with a planet-star mass ratio of q=[9.5 +/- 2.1] x 10^{-5} via gravitational microlensing. The planetary deviation was detected in real-time thanks to the high cadence of the MOA survey, real-time light curve monitoring and intensive follow-up observations. A Bayesian analysis returns the stellar mass and distance at M_l = 0.64_{-0.26}^{+0.21} M_\sun and D_l = 5.9_{-1.4}^{+0.9} kpc, respectively, so the mass and separation of the planet are M_p = 20_{-8}^{+7} M_\oplus and a = 3.3_{-0.8}^{+1.4} AU, respectively. This discovery adds another cold Neptune-mass planet to the planetary sample discovered by microlensing, which now comprise four cold Neptune/Super-Earths, five gas giant planets, and another sub-Saturn mass planet whose nature is unclear. The discovery of these ten cold exoplanets by the microlensing method implies that the mass ratio function of cold exoplanets scales as dN_{\rm pl}/d\log q \propto q^{-0.7 +/- 0.2} with a 95% confidence level upper limit of n < -0.35 (where dN_{\rm pl}/d\log q \propto q^n). As microlensing is most sensitive to planets beyond the snow-line, this implies that Neptune-mass planets are at least three times more common than Jupiters in this region at the 95% confidence level.

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arXiv2009

The POINT-AGAPE Survey: Comparing Automated Searches of Microlensing Events toward M31

Searching for microlensing in M31 using automated superpixel surveys raises a number of difficulties which are not present in more conventional techniques. Here we focus on the problem that the list of microlensing candidates is sensitive to the selection criteria or "cuts" imposed and some subjectivity is involved in this. Weakening the cuts will generate a longer list of microlensing candidates but with a greater fraction of spurious ones; strengthening the cuts will produce a shorter list but may exclude some genuine events. We illustrate this by comparing three analyses of the same data-set obtained from a 3-year observing run on the INT in La Palma. The results of two of these analyses have been already reported: Belokurov et al. (2005) obtained between 3 and 22 candidates, depending on the strength of their cuts, while Calchi Novati et al. (2005) obtained 6 candidates. The third analysis is presented here for the first time and reports 10 microlensing candidates, 7 of which are new. Only two of the candidates are common to all three analyses. In order to understand why these analyses produce different candidate lists, a comparison is made of the cuts used by the three groups...

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arXiv2009

Interpretation of Strong Short-Term Central Perturbations in the Light Curves of Moderate-Magnification Microlensing Events

To improve the planet detection efficiency, current planetary microlensing experiments are focused on high-magnification events searching for planetary signals near the peak of lensing light curves. However, it is known that central perturbations can also be produced by binary companions and thus it is important to distinguish planetary signals from those induced by binary companions. In this paper, we analyze the light curves of microlensing events OGLE-2007-BLG-137/MOA-2007-BLG-091, OGLE-2007-BLG-355/MOA-2007-BLG-278, and MOA-2007-BLG-199/OGLE-2007-BLG-419, for all of which exhibit short-term perturbations near the peaks of the light curves. From detailed modeling of the light curves, we find that the perturbations of the events are caused by binary companions rather than planets. From close examination of the light curves combined with the underlying physical geometry of the lens system obtained from modeling, we find that the short time-scale caustic-crossing feature occurring at a low or a moderate base magnification with an additional secondary perturbation is a typical feature of binary-lens events and thus can be used for the discrimination between the binary and planetary interpretations.

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arXiv2009

Mass measurement of a single unseen star and planetary detection efficiency for OGLE 2007-BLG-050

We analyze OGLE-2007-BLG-050, a high magnification microlensing event (A ~ 432) whose peak occurred on 2 May, 2007, with pronounced finite-source and parallax effects. We compute planet detection efficiencies for this event in order to determine its sensitivity to the presence of planets around the lens star. Both finite-source and parallax effects permit a measurement of the angular Einstein radius θ_E = 0.48 +/- 0.01 mas and the parallax π_E = 0.12 +/- 0.03, leading to an estimate of the lens mass M = 0.50 +/- 0.14 M_Sun and its distance to the observer D_L = 5.5 +/- 0.4 kpc. This is only the second determination of a reasonably precise (<30%) mass estimate for an isolated unseen object, using any method. This allows us to calculate the planetary detection efficiency in physical units (r_\perp, m_p), where r_\perp is the projected planet-star separation and m_p is the planet mass. When computing planet detection efficiency, we did not find any planetary signature and our detection efficiency results reveal significant sensitivity to Neptune-mass planets, and to a lesser extent Earth-mass planets in some configurations. Indeed, Jupiter and Neptune-mass planets are excluded with a high confidence for a large projected separation range between the planet and the lens star, respectively [0.6 - 10] and [1.4 - 4] AU, and Earth-mass planets are excluded with a 10% confidence in the lensing zone, i.e. [1.8 - 3.1] AU.

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arXiv2009

Difference imaging photometry of blended gravitational microlensing events with a numerical kernel

The numerical kernel approach to difference imaging has been implemented and applied to gravitational microlensing events observed by the PLANET collaboration. The effect of an error in the source-star coordinates is explored and a new algorithm is presented for determining the precise coordinates of the microlens in blended events, essential for accurate photometry of difference images. It is shown how the photometric reference flux need not be measured directly from the reference image but can be obtained from measurements of the difference images combined with knowledge of the statistical flux uncertainties. The improved performance of the new algorithm, relative to ISIS2, is demonstrated.

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arXiv2009

A systematic fitting scheme for caustic-crossing microlensing events

We outline a method for fitting binary-lens caustic-crossing microlensing events based on the alternative model parameterisation proposed and detailed in Cassan (2008). As an illustration of our methodology, we present an analysis of OGLE-2007-BLG-472, a double-peaked Galactic microlensing event with a source crossing the whole caustic structure in less than three days. In order to identify all possible models we conduct an extensive search of the parameter space, followed by a refinement of the parameters with a Markov Chain-Monte Carlo algorithm. We find a number of low-chi2 regions in the parameter space, which lead to several distinct competitive best models. We examine the parameters for each of them, and estimate their physical properties. We find that our fitting strategy locates several minima that are difficult to find with other modelling strategies and is therefore a more appropriate method to fit this type of events.

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arXiv2008

RoboNet-II: Follow-up observations of microlensing events with a robotic network of telescopes

RoboNet-II uses a global network of robotic telescopes to perform follow-up observations of microlensing events in the Galactic Bulge. The current network consists of three 2m telescopes located in Hawaii and Australia (owned by Las Cumbres Observatory) and the Canary Islands (owned by Liverpool John Moores University). In future years the network will be expanded by deploying clusters of 1m telescopes in other suitable locations. A principal scientific aim of the RoboNet-II project is the detection of cool extra-solar planets by the method of gravitational microlensing. These detections will provide crucial constraints to models of planetary formation and orbital migration. RoboNet-II acts in coordination with the PLANET microlensing follow-up network and uses an optimization algorithm ("web-PLOP") to select the targets and a distributed scheduling paradigm (eSTAR) to execute the observations. Continuous automated assessment of the observations and anomaly detection is provided by the ARTEMiS system.

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arXiv2008

Inferring statistics of planet populations by means of automated microlensing searches

(abridged) The study of other worlds is key to understanding our own, and not only provides clues to the origin of our civilization, but also looks into its future. Rather than in identifying nearby systems and learning about their individual properties, the main value of the technique of gravitational microlensing is in obtaining the statistics of planetary populations within the Milky Way and beyond. Only the complementarity of different techniques currently employed promises to yield a complete picture of planet formation that has sufficient predictive power to let us understand how habitable worlds like ours evolve, and how abundant such systems are in the Universe. A cooperative three-step strategy of survey, follow-up, and anomaly monitoring of microlensing targets, realized by means of an automated expert system and a network of ground-based telescopes is ready right now to be used to obtain a first census of cool planets with masses reaching even below that of Earth orbiting K and M dwarfs in two distinct stellar populations, namely the Galactic bulge and disk. The hunt for extra-solar planets acts as a principal science driver for time-domain astronomy with robotic-telescope networks adopting fully-automated strategies. Several initiatives, both into facilities as well as into advanced software and strategies, are supposed to see the capabilities of gravitational microlensing programmes step-wise increasing over the next 10 years. New opportunities will show up with high-precision astrometry becoming available and studying the abundance of planets around stars in neighbouring galaxies becoming possible. Finally, we should not miss out on sharing the vision with the general public, and make its realization to profit not only the scientists but all the wider society.

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arXiv2008

Towards A Census of Earth-mass Exo-planets with Gravitational Microlensing

Thirteen exo-planets have been discovered using the gravitational microlensing technique (out of which 7 have been published). These planets already demonstrate that super-Earths (with mass up to ~10 Earth masses) beyond the snow line are common and multiple planet systems are not rare. In this White Paper we introduce the basic concepts of the gravitational microlensing technique, summarise the current mode of discovery and outline future steps towards a complete census of planets including Earth-mass planets. In the near-term (over the next 5 years) we advocate a strategy of automated follow-up with existing and upgraded telescopes which will significantly increase the current planet detection efficiency. In the medium 5-10 year term, we envision an international network of wide-field 2m class telescopes to discover Earth-mass and free-floating exo-planets. In the long (10-15 year) term, we strongly advocate a space microlensing telescope which, when combined with Kepler, will provide a complete census of planets down to Earth mass at almost all separations. Such a survey could be undertaken as a science programme on Euclid, a dark energy probe with a wide-field imager which has been proposed to ESA's Cosmic Vision Programme.

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arXiv2008

Discovery of a Jupiter/Saturn Analog with Gravitational Microlensing

Searches for extrasolar planets have uncovered an astonishing diversity of planetary systems, yet the frequency of solar system analogs remains unknown. The gravitational microlensing planet search method is potentially sensitive to multiple-planet systems containing analogs of all the solar system planets except Mercury. We report the detection of a multiple-planet system with microlensing. We identify two planets with masses of ~0.71 and ~0.27 times the mass of Jupiter and orbital separations of ~2.3 and ~4.6 astronomical units orbiting a primary star of mass ~0.50 solar masses at a distance of ~1.5 kiloparsecs. This system resembles a scaled version of our solar system in that the mass ratio, separation ratio, and equilibrium temperatures of the planets are similar to those of Jupiter and Saturn. These planets could not have been detected with other techniques; their discovery from only six confirmed microlensing planet detections suggests that solar system analogs may be common.

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arXiv2008

ARTEMiS (Automated Robotic Terrestrial Exoplanet Microlensing Search) - A possible expert-system based cooperative effort to hunt for planets of Earth mass and below

(abridged) The technique of gravitational microlensing is currently unique in its ability to provide a sample of terrestrial exoplanets around both Galactic disk and bulge stars, allowing to measure their abundance and determine their distribution with respect to mass and orbital separation. In order to achieve these goals in reasonable time, a well-coordinated effort involving a network of either 2m or 4 x 1m telescopes at each site is required. It could lead to the first detection of an Earth-mass planet outside the Solar system, and even planets less massive than Earth could be discovered. From April 2008, ARTEMiS (Automated Robotic Terrestrial Exoplanet Microlensing Search) is planned to provide a platform for a three-step strategy of survey, follow-up, and anomaly monitoring. As an expert system embedded in eSTAR (e-Science Telescopes for Astronomical Research), ARTEMiS will give advice on the optimal targets to be observed at any given time, and will also alert on deviations from ordinary microlensing light curves by means of the SIGNALMEN anomaly detector. While the use of the VOEvent (Virtual Observatory Event) protocol allows a direct interaction with the telescopes that are part of the HTN (Heterogeneous Telescope Networks) consortium, additional interfaces provide means of communication with all existing microlensing campaigns that rely on human observers. The success of discovering a planet by microlensing critically depends on the availability of a telescope in a suitable location at the right time, which can mean within 10 min. Real-time modelling offers the opportunity of live discovery of extra-solar planets, thereby providing ''Science live to your home''.

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arXiv2007

An anomaly detector with immediate feedback to hunt for planets of Earth mass and below by microlensing

(abridged) The discovery of OGLE 2005-BLG-390Lb, the first cool rocky/icy exoplanet, impressively demonstrated the sensitivity of the microlensing technique to extra-solar planets below 10 M_earth. A planet of 1 M_earth in the same spot would have provided a detectable deviation with an amplitude of ~ 3 % and a duration of ~ 12 h. An early detection of a deviation could trigger higher-cadence sampling which would have allowed the discovery of an Earth-mass planet in this case. Here, we describe the implementation of an automated anomaly detector, embedded into the eSTAR system, that profits from immediate feedback provided by the robotic telescopes that form the RoboNet-1.0 network. It went into operation for the 2007 microlensing observing season. As part of our discussion about an optimal strategy for planet detection, we shed some new light on whether concentrating on highly-magnified events is promising and planets in the 'resonant' angular separation equal to the angular Einstein radius are revealed most easily. Given that sub-Neptune mass planets can be considered being common around the host stars probed by microlensing (preferentially M- and K-dwarfs), the higher number of events that can be monitored with a network of 2m telescopes and the increased detection efficiency for planets below 5 M_earth arising from an optimized strategy gives a common effort of current microlensing campaigns a fair chance to detect an Earth-mass planet (from the ground) ahead of the COROT or Kepler missions. The detection limit of gravitational microlensing extends even below 0.1 M_earth, but such planets are not very likely to be detected from current campaigns. However, these will be within the reach of high-cadence monitoring with a network of wide-field telescopes or a space-based telescope.

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arXiv2005

POINT-AGAPE Pixel Lensing Survey of M31 : Evidence for a MACHO contribution to Galactic Halos

The POINT-AGAPE collaboration is carrying out a search for gravitational microlensing toward M31 to reveal galactic dark matter in the form of MACHOs (Massive Astrophysical Compact Halo Objects) in the halos of the Milky Way and M31. A high-threshold analysis of 3 years of data yields 6 bright, short--duration microlensing events, which are confronted to a simulation of the observations and the analysis. The observed signal is much larger than expected from self lensing alone and we conclude, at the 95% confidence level, that at least 20% of the halo mass in the direction of M31 must be in the form of MACHOs if their average mass lies in the range 0.5-1 M$_\odot$. This lower bound drops to 8% for MACHOs with masses $\sim 0.01$ M$_\odot$. In addition, we discuss a likely binary microlensing candidate with caustic crossing. Its location, some 32' away from the centre of M31, supports our conclusion that we are detecting a MACHO signal in the direction of M31.

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arXiv2005

Classical novae from the POINT-AGAPE microlensing survey of M31 -- II. Rate and statistical characteristics of the nova population

We report the results of our statistical study of the POINT-AGAPE CNe catalogue. The first Sloan $r'$ and $i'$ analysis of the MMRD relationship in M31 is performed using the resulting POINT-AGAPE CN catalogue. Good fits are produced to the MMRD in the two filters. However, we are unable to verify the $t_{15}$ relationship for either Sloan filter. The subsequent analysis of our automated CN detection pipeline has provided us with the most thorough knowledge of the completeness of a CN survey to-date. In addition, the large field of view of the survey has permitted us to probe the outburst rate well into the galactic disk, unlike previous CCD imaging surveys. Using this analysis we are able to probe the CN distribution of M31 and evaluate the global nova rate. Using models of the galactic surface brightness of M31, we show that the observed CN distribution consists of a separate bulge and disk population. We also show that the M31 bulge CN eruption rate per unit $r'$ flux is more than five times greater than that of the disk. We deduce a global M31 CN rate of $65^{+16}_{-15}$ year$^{-1}$, a value much higher than found by previous surveys. Using the global rate, we derive a M31 bulge rate of $38^{+15}_{-12}$ year$^{-1}$ and a disk rate of $27^{+19}_{-15}$ year$^{-1}$. Given our understanding of the completeness and an analysis of other sources of error, we conclude that the true global nova rate of M31 is at least 50% higher than was previously thought and this has consequent implications for the presumed CN rate in the Milky Way. We deduce a Galactic bulge rate of $14^{+6}_{-5}$ year$^{-1}$, a disk rate of $20^{+14}_{-11}$ year$^{-1}$ and a global Galactic rate of $34^{+15}_{-12}$ year$^{-1}$.

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arXiv2005

A dearth of planetary transits in the direction of NGC 6940

We present results of our survey for planetary transits in the field of NGC 6940. We think nearly all of our observed stars are field stars. We have obtained high precision (3-10 millimags at the bright end) photometric observations of 50,000 stars spanning 18 nights in an attempt to identify low amplitude and short period transit events. We have used a matched filter analysis to identify 14 stars that show multiple events, and four stars that show single transits. Of these 18 candidates, we have identified two that should be further researched. However, none of the candidates are convincing hot Jupiters.

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arXiv2005

A Survey for Planetary Transits in the Field of NGC 7789

We present results from 30 nights of observations of the open cluster NGC 7789 with the WFC camera on the INT telescope in La Palma. From ~900 epochs, we obtained lightcurves and Sloan r-i colours for ~33000 stars, with ~2400 stars with better than 1% precision. We expected to detect ~2 transiting hot Jupiter planets if 1% of stars host such a companion and that a typical hot Jupiter radius is ~1.2RJ. We find 24 transit candidates, 14 of which we can assign a period. We rule out the transiting planet model for 21 of these candidates using various robust arguments. For 2 candidates we are unable to decide on their nature, although it seems most likely that they are eclipsing binaries as well. We have one candidate exhibiting a single eclipse for which we derive a radius of 1.81+0.09-0.00RJ. Three candidates remain that require follow-up observations in order to determine their nature.

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arXiv2004

The POINT-AGAPE survey II: An Unrestricted Search for Microlensing Events towards M31

An automated search is carried out for microlensing events using a catalogue of 44554 variable superpixel lightcurves derived from our three-year monitoring program of M31. Each step of our candidate selection is objective and reproducible by a computer. Our search is unrestricted, in the sense that it has no explicit timescale cut. So, it must overcome the awkward problem of distinguishing long-timescale microlensing events from long-period stellar variables. The basis of the selection algorithm is the fitting of the superpixel lightcurves to two different theoretical models, using variable star and blended microlensing templates. Only if microlensing is preferred is an event retained as a possible candidate. Further cuts are made with regard to (i) sampling, (ii) goodness of fit of the peak to a Paczynski curve, (iii) consistency of the microlensing hypothesis with the absence of a resolved source, (iv) achromaticity, (v) position in the colour-magnitude diagram and (vi) signal-to-noise ratio. Our results are reported in terms of first-level candidates, which are the most trustworthy, and second-level candidates, which are possible microlensing but have lower signal-to-noise and are more questionable. The pipeline leaves just 3 first-level candidates, all of which have very short full-width half-maximum timescale (<5 days) and 3 second-level candidates, which have timescales of 31, 36 and 51 days respectively. We also show 16 third-level lightcurves, as an illustration of the events that just fail the threshold for designation as microlensing candidates. They are almost certainly mainly variable stars. Two of the 3 first-level candidates correspond to known events (PA 00-S3 and PA 00-S4) already reported by the POINT-AGAPE project. The remaining first-level candidate is new.

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