SearcharxivSearch

arXiv subjects

Yakir Berchenko

Publications and source records attributed to Yakir Berchenko.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

Revisiting the Volume Hypothesis

Modern deep neural networks often contain far more parameters than needed to fit their training data, yet they achieve impressive generalization. A common explanation for this success is the implicit bias of stochastic gradient descent (SGD). An alternative volume hypothesis posits that, within low training-loss regions, loss-landscape basins leading to strong generalization occupy much larger regions of weight space than basins that generalize poorly, and therefore SGD is simply more likely to land in the former. Recent experimental explorations of this idea present seemingly contradictory results. While in one set of experiments randomly sampling the network weights until achieving zero training error yielded poor generalization, molecular dynamics density estimates supported the volume hypothesis. We observe that these experiments were performed at different dataset size regimes, and explore an intermediate regime using the Replica Exchange Wang-Landau algorithm to estimate the joint density of states over training and test accuracies in binary networks. Across several architectures and datasets, we show that the generalization advantage of gradient learning over random sampling training generally diminishes as the training data size grows, suggesting a resolution of the paradox.

cs.LG

Modeling and Analysing Respondent Driven Sampling as a Counting Process

Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is an approach to sampling design and analysis which utilizes the networks of social relationships that connect members of the target population, using chain-referral methods to facilitate sampling. RDS typically leads to biased sampling, favoring participants with many acquaintances. Naive estimates, such as the sample average, which are uncorrected for the sampling bias, will themselves be biased. To compensate for this bias, current methodology suggests inverse-degree weighting, where the "degree" is the number of acquaintances. This stems from the fundamental RDS assumption that the probability of sampling an individual is proportional to their degree. Since this assumption is tenuous at best, we propose to harness the additional information encapsulated in the time of recruitment, into a model-based inference framework for RDS. This information is typically collected by researchers, but ignored. We adapt methods developed for inference in epidemic processes to estimate the population size, degree counts and frequencies. While providing valuable information in themselves, these quantities ultimately serve to debias other estimators, such a disease's prevalence. A fundamental advantage of our approach is that, being model-based, it makes all assumptions of the data-generating process explicit. This enables verification of the assumptions, maximum likelihood estimation, extension with covariates, and model selection. We develop asymptotic theory, proving consistency and asymptotic normality properties. We further compare these estimators to the standard inverse-degree weighting through simulations, and using real-world data. In both cases we find our estimators to outperform current methods. The likelihood problem in the model we present is convex, and thus efficiently solvable. We implement these estimators in an R package, chords, available on CRAN.

stat.ME

Analysis of a capture-recapture estimator for the size of populations with heterogenous catchability, and its evaluation on RDS data from rural Uganda

In this paper, we consider capture-recapture experiments with heterogenous catchability. In the setting we consider, the widespread Huggins-Alho estimator is not very suitable and we introduce and study a new generalized Horvitz-Thompson estimator. Our motivation is Respondent Driven Sampling (RDS), a prime example for such a setting where the capture probability is dependent on both the unknown population size as well as on an observable covariate, the network degree of an individual, due to peer recruitment. After discussing the theoretical properties of the new estimator, with full details given in the appendix, we evaluate it on various empirical and simulated data-sets, focusing on an RDS survey in a population in rural Uganda in which the population size is known a priori. The results thus obtained demonstrate that the adjusted estimator is less biased than the naive Lincoln-Petersen estimator.

stat.AP