arXiv subjects

Yamir Moreno

Publications and source records attributed to Yamir Moreno.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Digital cities and the spread of COVID-19: characterizing the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions in five cities in Spain

Mathematical modeling has been fundamental to achieving near real-time accurate forecasts of the spread of COVID-19. Similarly, the design of non-pharmaceutical interventions has played a key role in the application of policies to contain the spread. However, there is less work done regarding quantitative approaches to characterize the impact of each intervention, which can greatly vary depending on the culture, region, and specific circumstances of the population under consideration. In this work, we develop a high-resolution, data-driven agent-based model of the spread of COVID-19 among the population in five Spanish cities. These populations synthesize multiple data sources that summarize the main interaction environments leading to potential contacts. We simulate the spreading of COVID-19 in these cities and study the effect of several non-pharmaceutical interventions. We illustrate the potential of our approach through a case study and derive the impact of the most relevant interventions through scenarios where they are suppressed. Our framework constitutes a first tool to simulate different intervention scenarios for decision-making.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

The unequal effects of the health-economy tradeoff during the COVID-19 pandemic

The potential tradeoff between health outcomes and economic impact has been a major challenge in the policy making process during the COVID-19 pandemic. Epidemic-economic models designed to address this issue are either too aggregate to consider heterogeneous outcomes across socio-economic groups, or, when sufficiently fine-grained, not well grounded by empirical data. To fill this gap, we introduce a data-driven, granular, agent-based model that simulates epidemic and economic outcomes across industries, occupations, and income levels with geographic realism. The key mechanism coupling the epidemic and economic modules is the reduction in consumption demand due to fear of infection. We calibrate the model to the first wave of COVID-19 in the New York metropolitan area, showing that it reproduces key epidemic and economic statistics, and then examine counterfactual scenarios. We find that: (a) both high fear of infection and strict restrictions similarly harm the economy but reduce infections; (b) low-income workers bear the brunt of both the economic and epidemic harm; (c) closing non-customer-facing industries such as manufacturing and construction only marginally reduces the death toll while considerably increasing unemployment; and (d) delaying the start of protective measures does little to help the economy and worsens epidemic outcomes in all scenarios. We anticipate that our model will help designing effective and equitable non-pharmaceutical interventions that minimize disruptions in the face of a novel pandemic.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2022

Robustness Assessment of Complex Networks using the Idle Network

Network robustness is an essential system property to sustain functionality in the face of failures or targeted attacks. Currently, only the connectivity of the nodes unaffected by an attack is utilized to assess robustness. We propose to incorporate the properties of the emerging connectivity of the nodes affected by the attack (Idle Network), which is demonstrated to contain pertinent information about network robustness, improving its assessment accuracy. The Idle network information offers the potential to generalize models, enabling them to estimate robustness for unseen attacks.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Cooperation in costly-access environments

Understanding cooperative behavior in biological and social systems constitutes a scientific challenge, being the object of intense research over the past decades. Many mechanisms have been proposed to explain the presence and persistence of cooperation in those systems, showing that there is no unique explanation, as different scenarios have different possible driving forces. In this paper, we propose a model to study situations in which voluntary participation involves an access cost to the cooperative interaction, besides the cost associated with cooperation. The proposed Costly-Access Prisoner's Dilemma, a symmetric donation game with voluntary and costly participation, breaks the symmetry between abstainers and participants of the Voluntary Prisoner's Dilemma. A mean-field approach shows that, in well-mixed populations, the dynamic always leads the system to abstention. However, depending on the return parameter, numerical simulations in structured populations display an alternating behavior between mono-strategic, multi-stable, and coexistence phases. This behavior is fully explained through a theoretical analysis of the strategic motifs, the transitions being determined by the change in stability of those motifs.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Dynamics of economic unions: an agent-based model to investigate the economic and social drivers of withdrawals

Economic unions are international agreements oriented to increase economic efficiency and establishing political and cultural ties between the member countries. Becoming a member of an existing union usually requires the approval of both the candidate and members, while leaving it may require only the unilateral will of the exiting country. There are many examples of accession of states to previously consolidated economic unions, and a recent example of leaving is the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union. Motivated by the Brexit process, in this paper we propose an agent-based model to study the determinant factors driving withdrawals from an economic union. We show that both Union and local taxes promote the exits, whereas customs fees out of the Union boost cohesion. Furthermore, heterogeneity in both business conditions and wealth distribution promotes withdrawals, while countries' size diversity does not have a significant effect on them. We also deep into the individual causes that lead to dissatisfaction and, ultimately, to exits. We found that, for low Union taxes, the wealth inequality within the country is the leading cause of anti-Union opinion spreading. Conversely, for high Union taxes, the country's performance turns out to be the main driving force, resulting in a risk of wealthier countries leaving the Union. These findings will be helpful for the design of economic policies and effective informative campaigns.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Epidemic spreading in populations of mobile agents with adaptive behavioral response

Despite the advanced stage of epidemic modeling, there is a major demand for methods to incorporate behavioral responses to the spread of a disease such as social distancing and adoption of prevention methods. Mobility plays an important role in epidemic dynamics and is also affected by behavioral changes, but there are many situations in which real mobility data is incomplete or inaccessible. We present a model for epidemic spreading in temporal networks of mobile agents that incorporates local behavioral responses. Susceptible agents are allowed to move towards the opposite direction of infected agents in their neighborhood. We show that this mechanism considerably decreases the stationary prevalence when the spatial density of agents is low. However, for higher densities, the mechanism causes an abrupt phase transition, where a new bistable phase appears. We develop a semi-analytic approach for the case when the mobility is fast compared to the disease dynamics, and use it to argue that the bistability is caused by the emergence of spatial clusters of susceptible agents. Finally, we characterize the temporal networks formed in the fast mobility regime, showing how the degree distributions and other metrics are affected by the behavioral mechanism. Our work incorporates results previously known from adaptive networks into the population of mobile agents, which can be further developed to be used in mobility-driven models.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

The rise and fall of countries in the global value chains

Countries participate in global value chains by engaging in backward and forward transactions connecting multiple geographically dispersed production stages. Inspired by network theory, we model global trade as a multilayer network and study its power structure by investigating the tendency of eigenvector centrality to concentrate on a small fraction of countries, a phenomenon called localization transition. We show that the market underwent a significant structural variation in 2007 just before the global financial crisis. That year witnessed an abrupt repositioning of countries in the global value chains, and in particular a remarkable reversal of leading role between the two major economies, the US and China. We uncover the hierarchical structure of the multilayer network based on countries' time series of eigenvector centralities, and show that trade tends to concentrate between countries with different power dynamics, yet in geographical proximity. We further investigate the contribution of individual industries to countries' economic dominance, and show that also within industry variations in countries' market positioning took place in 2007. Moreover, we shed light on the crucial role that domestic trade played in the geopolitical landscape leading China to overtake the US and cement its status as leading economy of the global value chains. Our study shows how the 2008 crisis can offer insights to policy makers and governments on how to turn early structural signals of upcoming exogenous shocks into opportunities for redesigning countries' global roles in a changing geopolitical landscape.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Multistability, intermittency and hybrid transitions in social contagion models on hypergraphs

Although ubiquitous, interactions of groups of individuals (e.g., modern messaging applications, group meetings, or even a parliament discussion) are not yet thoroughly studied. Frequently, single-groups are modeled as critical-mass dynamics, which is a widespread concept used not only by academics but also by politicians and the media. However, less explored questions are how a collection of groups will behave and how the intersection between these groups might change the global dynamics. Here, we formulate this process in terms of binary state dynamics on hypergraphs. We showed that our model has a very rich and unexpected behavior that goes beyond discontinuous transitions. In particular, we might have multistability and intermittency as a consequence of bimodal state distributions. By using artificial random models, we demonstrated that this phenomenology could be associated with community structures. Specifically, we might have multistability or intermittency by controlling the number of bridges between two communities with different densities. The introduction of bridges destroys multistability but creates an intermittent behavior. Furthermore, we provide an analytical formulation showing that the observed pattern for the order parameter and susceptibility are compatible with hybrid phase transitions. Our findings open new paths for research, ranging from physics, on the formal calculation of quantities of interest, to social sciences, where new experiments can be designed.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

The physics of higher-order interactions in complex systems

Complex networks have become the main paradigm for modelling the dynamics of interacting systems. However, networks are intrinsically limited to describing pairwise interactions, whereas real-world systems are often characterized by higher-order interactions involving groups of three or more units. Higher-order structures, such as hypergraphs and simplicial complexes, are therefore a better tool to map the real organization of many social, biological and man-made systems. Here, we highlight recent evidence of collective behaviours induced by higher-order interactions, and we outline three key challenges for the physics of higher-order systems.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Evolutionary dynamics of higher-order interactions in social networks

We live and cooperate in networks. However, links in networks only allow for pairwise interactions, thus making the framework suitable for dyadic games, but not for games that are played in groups of more than two players. Here, we study the evolutionary dynamics of a public goods game in social systems with higher-order interactions. First, we show that the game on uniform hypergraphs corresponds to the replicator dynamics in the well-mixed limit, providing a formal theoretical foundation to study cooperation in networked groups. Secondly, we unveil how the presence of hubs and the coexistence of interactions in groups of different sizes affects the evolution of cooperation. Finally, we apply the proposed framework to extract the actual dependence of the synergy factor on the size of a group from real-world collaboration data in science and technology. Our work provides a way to implement informed actions to boost cooperation in social groups.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Modeling the effects of social distancing on the large-scale spreading of diseases

To contain the propagation of emerging diseases that are transmissible from human to human, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) aimed at reducing the interactions between humans are usually implemented. One example of the latter kind of measures is social distancing, which can be either policy-driven or can arise endogenously in the population as a consequence of the fear of infection. However, if NPIs are lifted before the population reaches herd immunity, further re-introductions of the pathogen would lead to secondary infections. Here we study the effects of different social distancing schemes on the large scale spreading of diseases. Specifically, we generalize metapopulation models to include social distancing mechanisms at the subpopulation level and model short- and long-term strategies that are fed with local or global information about the epidemics. We show that different model ingredients might lead to very diverse outcomes in different subpopulations. Our results suggest that there is not a unique answer to the question of whether contention measures are more efficient if implemented and managed locally or globally and that model outcomes depends on how the full complexity of human interactions is taken into account.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Social contagion on higher-order structures

In this Chapter, we discuss the effects of higher-order structures on SIS-like processes of social contagion. After a brief motivational introduction where we illustrate the standard SIS process on networks and the difference between simple and complex contagions, we introduce spreading processes on higher-order structures starting from the most general formulation on hypergraphs and then moving to several mean-field and heterogeneous mean-field approaches. The results highlight the rich phenomenology brought by taking into account higher-order contagion effects: both continuous and discontinuous transitions are observed, and critical mass effects emerge. We conclude with a short discussion on the theoretical results regarding the nature of the epidemic transition and the general need for data to validate these models.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Statistical properties of mutualistic-competitive random networks

Mutualistic networks are used to study the structure and processes inherent to mutualistic relationships. In this paper, we introduce a random matrix ensemble (RME) representing the adjacency matrices of mutualistic networks composed by two vertex sets of sizes $n$ and $m-n$. Our RME depends on three parameters: the network size $n$, the size of the smaller set $m$, and the connectivity between the two sets $α$, where $α$ is the ratio of current adjacent pairs over the total number of possible adjacent pairs between the sets. We focus on the the spectral, eigenvector and topological properties of the RME by computing, respectively, the ratio of consecutive eigenvalue spacings $r$, the Shannon entropy of the eigenvectors $S$, and the Randić index $R$. First, within a random matrix theory approach (i.e., a statistical approach), we identify a parameter $ξ\equivξ(n,m,α)$ that scales the average normalized measures $\left< \overline{X} \right>$ (with $X$ representing $r$, $S$ and $R$). Specifically, we show that (i) $ξ\propto αn$ with a weak dependence on $m$, and (ii) for $ξ<1/10$ most vertices in the mutualistic network are isolated, while for $ξ>10$ the network acquires the properties of a complete network, i.e., the transition from isolated vertices to a complete-like behavior occurs in the interval $1/10<ξ<10$. Then, we demonstrate that our statistical approach predicts reasonably well the properties of real-world mutualistic networks; that is, the universal curves $\left< \overline{X} \right>$ vs. $ξ$ show good correspondence with the properties of real-world networks.

cond-mat.dis-nn↗

arXiv2021

From subcritical behavior to elusive transitions in rumor models

Rumor and information spreading are natural processes that emerge from human-to-human interaction. Mathematically, this was explored in the popular Maki-Thompson model, where a phase transition was thought to be absent. Here, we show that a second-order phase transition is present in this model which is not captured by first-order mean-field approximations. Moreover, we propose and explore a modified version of the Maki-Thompson model that includes a forgetting mechanism. This modification changes the Markov chain's nature from infinitely many absorbing states in the classical setup to a single absorbing state. In practice, this allows us to use a plethora of analytic and numeric methods that permit the models' characterization. In particular, we find a counter-intuitive behavior in the subcritical regime of these models, where the lifespan of a rumor increases as the spreading rate drops, following a power-law relationship. This means that, even below the critical threshold, rumors can survive for a long time. Together, our findings suggest that the dynamic behavior of rumor models can be much richer than previously thought. Thus, we hope that our results motivate further research both analytically and numerically.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Polarization inhibits the phase transition of Axelrod's model

We study the effect of polarization in Axelrod's model of cultural dissemination. This is done through the introduction of a cultural feature that takes only two values, while the other features can present a larger number of possible traits. Our numerical results and mean-field approximations show that polarization reduces the characteristic phase transition of the original model to a finite-size effect, since at the thermodynamic limit only the ordered phase is present. Furthermore, for finite system sizes, the stationary state depends on the percolation threshold of the network where the model is implemented: a polarized phase is obtained for percolation thresholds below 1/2, a fragmented multicultural one otherwise.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Interspecific competition shapes the structural stability of mutualistic networks

Mutualistic networks have attracted increasing attention in the ecological literature in the last decades as they play a key role in the maintenance of biodiversity. Here, we develop an analytical framework to study the structural stability of these networks including both mutualistic and competitive interactions. Analytical and numerical analyses show that the structure of the competitive network fundamentally alters the necessary conditions for species coexistence in communities. Using 50 real mutualistic networks, we show that when the relative importance of shared partners is incorporated via weighted competition, the feasibility area in the parameter space is highly correlated with May's stability criteria and can be predicted by a functional relationship between the number of species, the network connectance and the average interaction strength in the community. Our work reopens a decade-long debate about the complexity-stability relationship in ecological communities, and highlights the role of the relative structures of different interaction types.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Modeling how social network algorithms can influence opinion polarization

Among different aspects of social networks, dynamics have been proposed to simulate how opinions can be transmitted. In this study, we propose a model that simulates the communication in an online social network, in which the posts are created from external information. We considered the nodes and edges of a network as users and their friendship, respectively. A real number is associated with each user representing its opinion. The dynamics starts with a user that has contact with a random opinion, and, according to a given probability function, this individual can post this opinion. This step is henceforth called post transmission. In the next step, called post distribution, another probability function is employed to select the user's friends that could see the post. Post transmission and distribution represent the user and the social network algorithm, respectively. If an individual has contact with a post, its opinion can be attracted or repulsed. Furthermore, individuals that are repulsed can change their friendship through a rewiring. These steps are executed various times until the dynamics converge. Several impressive results were obtained, which include the formation of scenarios of polarization and consensus of opinions. In the case of echo chambers, the possibility of rewiring probability is found to be decisive. However, for particular network topologies, with a well-defined community structure, this effect can also happen. All in all, the results indicate that the post distribution strategy is crucial to mitigate or promote polarization.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

Induced Percolation on Networked Systems

Percolation theory has been widely used to study phase transitions in complex networked systems. It has also successfully explained several macroscopic phenomena across different fields. Yet, the existent theoretical framework for percolation places the focus on the direct interactions among the system's components, while recent empirical observations have shown that indirect interactions are common in many systems like ecological and social networks, among others. Here, we propose a new percolation framework that accounts for indirect interactions, which allows to generalize the current theoretical body and understand the role of the underlying indirect influence of the components of a networked system on its macroscopic behavior. We report a rich phenomenology in which first-order, second-order or hybrid phase transitions are possible depending on whether the links of the substrate network are directed, undirected or a mix, respectively. We also present an analytical framework to characterize the proposed induced percolation, paving the way to further understand network dynamics with indirect interactions.

physics.soc-ph↗