arXiv subjects

Yamir Moreno

Publications and source records attributed to Yamir Moreno.

At least 127 records · Page 7Linked to original sources

arXiv2016

Epidemic Spreading in Random Rectangular Networks

The use of network theory to model disease propagation on populations introduces important elements of reality to the classical epidemiological models. The use of random geometric graphs (RGG) is one of such network models that allows for the consideration of spatial properties on disease propagation. In certain real-world scenarios -like in the analysis of a disease propagating through plants- the shape of the plots and fields where the host of the disease is located may play a fundamental role on the propagation dynamics. Here we consider a generalization of the RGG to account for the variation of the shape of the plots/fields where the hosts of a disease are allocated. We consider a disease propagation taking place on the nodes of a random rectangular graph (RRG) and we consider a lower bound for the epidemic threshold of a Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) or Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model on these networks. Using extensive numerical simulations and based on our analytical results we conclude that (ceteris paribus) the elongation of the plot/field in which the nodes are distributed makes the network more resilient to the propagation of a disease due to the fact that the epidemic threshold increases with the elongation of the rectangle. These results agree with accumulated empirical evidence and simulation results about the propagation of diseases on plants in plots/fields of the same area and different shapes.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

Unifying Markov Chain Approach for Disease and Rumor Spreading in Complex Networks

Spreading processes are ubiquitous in natural and artificial systems. They can be studied via a plethora of models, depending on the specific details of the phenomena under study. Disease contagion and rumor spreading are among the most important of these processes due to their practical relevance. However, despite the similarities between them, current models address both spreading dynamics separately. In this paper, we propose a general information spreading model that is based on discrete time Markov chains. The model includes all the transitions that are plausible for both a disease contagion process and rumor propagation. We show that our model not only covers the traditional spreading schemes, but that it also contains some features relevant in social dynamics, such as apathy, forgetting, and lost/recovering of interest. The model is evaluated analytically to obtain the spreading thresholds and the early time dynamical behavior for the contact and reactive processes in several scenarios. Comparison with Monte Carlo simulations shows that the Markov chain formalism is highly accurate while it excels in computational efficiency. We round off our work by showing how the proposed framework can be applied to the study of spreading processes occurring on social networks.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

Humans display a reduced set of consistent behavioral phenotypes in dyadic games

Socially relevant situations that involve strategic interactions are widespread among animals and humans alike. To study these situations, theoretical and experimental works have adopted a game-theoretical perspective, which has allowed to obtain valuable insights about human behavior. However, most of the results reported so far have been obtained from a population perspective and considered one specific conflicting situation at a time. This makes it difficult to extract conclusions about the consistency of individuals' behavior when facing different situations, and more importantly, to define a comprehensive classification of the strategies underlying the observed behaviors. Here, we present the results of a lab-in-the-field experiment in which subjects face four different dyadic games, with the aim of establishing general behavioral rules dictating individuals' actions. By analyzing our data with an unsupervised clustering algorithm, we find that all the subjects conform, with a large degree of consistency, to a limited number of behavioral phenotypes (Envious, Optimist, Pessimist, and Trustful), with only a small fraction of undefined subjects. We also discuss the possible connections to existing interpretations based on a priori theoretical approaches. Our findings provide a relevant contribution to the experimental and theoretical efforts towards the identification of basic behavioral phenotypes in a wider set of contexts without aprioristic assumptions regarding the rules or strategies behind actions. From this perspective, our work contributes to a fact-based approach to the study of human behavior in strategic situations, that could be applied to simulating societies, policy-making scenario building and even for a variety of business applications.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

A multilayer perspective for the analysis of urban transportation systems

Public urban mobility systems are composed by several transportation modes connected together. Most studies in urban mobility and planning often ignore the multi-layer nature of transportation systems considering only aggregated versions of this complex scenario. In this work we present a model for the representation of the transportation system of an entire city as a multiplex network. Using two different perspectives, one in which each line is a layer and one in which lines of the same transportation mode are grouped together, we study the interconnected structure of 9 different cities in Europe raging from small towns to mega-cities like London and Berlin highlighting their vulnerabilities and possible improvements. Finally, for the city of Zaragoza in Spain, we also consider data about service schedule and waiting times, which allow us to create a simple yet realistic model for urban mobility able to reproduce real-world facts and to test for network improvements.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

Levy random walks on multiplex networks

Random walks constitute a fundamental mechanism for many dynamics taking place on complex networks. Besides, as a more realistic description of our society, multiplex networks have been receiving a growing interest, as well as the dynamical processes that occur on top of them. Here, inspired by one specific model of random walks that seems to be ubiquitous across many scientific fields, the Levy flight, we study a new navigation strategy on top of multiplex networks. Capitalizing on spectral graph and stochastic matrix theories, we derive analytical expressions for the mean first passage time and the average time to reach a node on these networks. Moreover, we also explore the efficiency of Levy random walks, which we found to be very different as compared to the single layer scenario, accounting for the structure and dynamics inherent to the multiplex network. Finally, by comparing with some other important random walk processes defined on multiplex networks, we find that in some region of the parameters, a Levy random walk is the most efficient strategy. Our results give us a deeper understanding of Levy random walks and show the importance of considering the topological structure of multiplex networks when trying to find efficient navigation strategies.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

Heterogeneous resource allocation can change social hierarchy in public goods games

Public Goods Games represent one of the most useful tools to study group interactions between individuals. However, even if they could provide an explanation for the emergence and stability of cooperation in modern societies, they are not able to reproduce some key features observed in social and economical interactions. The typical shape of wealth distribution - known as Pareto Law - and the microscopic organization of wealth production are two of them. Here, we introduce a modification to the classical formulation of Public Goods Games that allows for the emergence of both of these features from first principles. Unlike traditional Public Goods Games on networks, where players contribute equally to all the games in which they participate, we allow individuals to redistribute their contribution according to what they earned in previous rounds. Results from numerical simulations show that not only a Pareto distribution for the payoffs naturally emerges but also that if players don't invest enough in one round they can act as defectors even if they are formally cooperators. Finally, we also show that the players self-organize in a very productive backbone that covers almost perfectly the minimum spanning tree of the underlying interaction network. Our results not only give an explanation for the presence of the wealth heterogeneity observed in real data but also points to a conceptual change regarding how cooperation is defined in collective dilemmas.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

Assessing the impact of costly punishment and group size in collective-risk climate dilemmas

The mitigation of the effects of climate change on humankind is one of the most pressing and important collective governance problems nowadays$^{1-4}$. To explore different solutions and scenarios, previous works have framed this problem into a Public Goods Game (PGG), where a dilemma between short-term interests and long-term sustainability arises$^{5-9}$. In such a context, subjects are placed in groups and play a PGG with the aim of avoiding dangerous climate change impact. Here we report on a lab experiment designed to explore two important ingredients: costly punishment to free-riders and group size. Our results show that for high punishment risk, more groups succeed in achieving the global target, this finding being robust against group size. Interestingly enough, we also find a non-trivial effect of the size of the groups: the larger the size of the groups facing the dilemmas, the higher the punishment risk should be to achieve the desired goal. Overall, the results of the present study shed more light into possible deterrent effects of plausible measures that can be put in place when negotiating climate treaties and provide more hints regarding climate-related policies and strategies.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

The effects of network structure, competition and memory time on social spreading phenomena

Online social media have greatly affected the way in which we communicate with each other. However, little is known about what are the fundamental mechanisms driving dynamical information flow in online social systems. Here, we introduce a generative model for online sharing behavior that is analytically tractable and which can reproduce several characteristics of empirical micro-blogging data on hashtag usage, such as (time-dependent) heavy-tailed distributions of meme popularity. The presented framework constitutes a null model for social spreading phenomena which, in contrast to purely empirical studies or simulation-based models, clearly distinguishes the roles of two distinct factors affecting meme popularity: the memory time of users and the connectivity structure of the social network.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

On the impact of Masking and Blocking Hypotheses for measuring efficacy of new tuberculosis vaccines

Over the past 60 years, the Mycobacterium bovis bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) has been used worldwide to prevent tuberculosis (TB). However, BCG has shown a very variable efficacy in different trials, showing a wide range of protection in adults against pulmonary TB. Previous studies indicate that this failure is related to pre-existing immune response to antigens that are common to environmental sources of mycobacterial antigens and Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Specifically, two different mechanisms have been hypothesized: the masking, (previous sensitization confers some level of protection against TB), and the blocking (previous immune response prevent vaccine taking of a new TB vaccine), effects. In this work we introduce a series of models to discriminate between masking and blocking mechanisms and address their relative likelihood. The application of our models to interpret the results coming from the BCG-REVAC clinical trials, specifically designed for the study of sources of efficacy variability yields estimates that are consistent with high levels of blocking (41% in Manaus -95% C.I. [14%-68%]- and 96% in Salvador -95% C.I. [52%-100%]-), and no support for masking to play any relevant role in modifying vaccine efficacy either alone or aside blocking. The quantification of these effects around a plausible model constitutes a relevant step towards impact evaluation of novel anti-tuberculosis vaccines, which are susceptible of being affected by similar effects if applied on individuals previously exposed to mycobacterial antigens.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2015

Structure of Triadic Relations in Multiplex Networks

Recent advances in the study of networked systems have highlighted that our interconnected world is composed of networks that are coupled to each other through different "layers" that each represent one of many possible subsystems or types of interactions. Nevertheless, it is traditional to aggregate multilayer networks into a single weighted network in order to take advantage of existing tools. This is admittedly convenient, but it is also extremely problematic, as important information can be lost as a result. It is therefore important to develop multilayer generalizations of network concepts. In this paper, we analyze triadic relations and generalize the idea of transitivity to multiplex networks. By focusing on triadic relations, which yield the simplest type of transitivity, we generalize the concept and computation of clustering coefficients to multiplex networks. We show how the layered structure of such networks introduces a new degree of freedom that has a fundamental effect on transitivity. We compute multiplex clustering coefficients for several real multiplex networks and illustrate why one must take great care when generalizing standard network concepts to multiplex networks. We also derive analytical expressions for our clustering coefficients for ensemble averages of networks in a family of random multiplex networks. Our analysis illustrates that social networks have a strong tendency to promote redundancy by closing triads at every layer and that they thereby have a different type of multiplex transitivity from transportation networks, which do not exhibit such a tendency. These insights are invisible if one only studies aggregated networks.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

The dynamic of information-driven coordination phenomena: a transfer entropy analysis

Data from social media are providing unprecedented opportunities to investigate the processes that rule the dynamics of collective social phenomena. Here, we consider an information theoretical approach to define and measure the temporal and structural signatures typical of collective social events as they arise and gain prominence. We use the symbolic transfer entropy analysis of micro-blogging time series to extract directed networks of influence among geolocalized sub-units in social systems. This methodology captures the emergence of system-level dynamics close to the onset of socially relevant collective phenomena. The framework is validated against a detailed empirical analysis of five case studies. In particular, we identify a change in the characteristic time-scale of the information transfer that flags the onset of information-driven collective phenomena. Furthermore, our approach identifies an order-disorder transition in the directed network of influence between social sub-units. In the absence of a clear exogenous driving, social collective phenomena can be represented as endogenously-driven structural transitions of the information transfer network. This study provides results that can help define models and predictive algorithms for the analysis of societal events based on open source data.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

On degree-degree correlations in multilayer networks

We propose a generalization of the concept of assortativity based on the tensorial representation of multilayer networks, covering the definitions given in terms of Pearson and Spearman coefficients. Our approach can also be applied to weighted networks and provides information about correlations considering pairs of layers. By analyzing the multilayer representation of the airport transportation network, we show that contrasting results are obtained when the layers are analyzed independently or as an interconnected system. Finally, we study the impact of the level of assortativity and heterogeneity between layers on the spreading of diseases. Our results highlight the need of studying degree-degree correlations on multilayer systems, instead of on aggregated networks.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

Sentiment cascades in the 15M movement

Recent grassroots movements have suggested that online social networks might play a key role in their organization, as adherents have a fast, many-to-many, communication channel to help coordinate their mobilization. The structure and dynamics of the networks constructed from the digital traces of protesters have been analyzed to some extent recently. However, less effort has been devoted to the analysis of the semantic content of messages exchanged during the protest. Using the data obtained from a microblogging service during the brewing and active phases of the 15M movement in Spain, we perform the first large scale test of theories on collective emotions and social interaction in collective actions. Our findings show that activity and information cascades in the movement are larger in the presence of negative collective emotions and when users express themselves in terms related to social content. At the level of individual participants, our results show that their social integration in the movement, as measured through social network metrics, increases with their level of engagement and of expression of negativity. Our findings show that non-rational factors play a role in the formation and activity of social movements through online media, having important consequences for viral spreading.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2015

Multilayer networks: metrics and spectral properties

Multilayer networks represent systems in which there are several topological levels each one representing one kind of interaction or interdependency between the systems' elements. These networks have attracted a lot of attention recently because their study allows considering different dynamical modes concurrently. Here, we revise the main concepts and tools developed up to date. Specifically, we focus on several metrics for multilayer network characterization as well as on the spectral properties of the system, which ultimately enable for the dynamical characterization of several critical phenomena. The theoretical framework is also applied for description of real-world multilayer systems.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

Dynamic instability of cooperation due to diverse activity patterns in evolutionary social dilemmas

Individuals might abstain from participating in an instance of an evolutionary game for various reasons, ranging from lack of interest to risk aversion. In order to understand the consequences of such diverse activity patterns on the evolution of cooperation, we study a weak prisoner's dilemma where each player's participation is probabilistic rather than certain. Players that do not participate get a null payoff and are unable to replicate. We show that inactivity introduces cascading failures of cooperation, which are particularly severe on scale-free networks with frequently inactive hubs. The drops in the fraction of cooperators are sudden, while the spatiotemporal reorganization of compact cooperative clusters, and thus the recovery, takes time. Nevertheless, if the activity of players is directly proportional to their degree, or if the interaction network is not strongly heterogeneous, the overall evolution of cooperation is not impaired. This is because inactivity negatively affects the potency of low-degree defectors, who are hence unable to utilize on their inherent evolutionary advantage. Between cascading failures, the fraction of cooperators is therefore higher than usual, which lastly balances out the asymmetric dynamic instabilities that emerge due to intermittent blackouts of cooperative hubs.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

Characterising two-pathogen competition in spatially structured environments

Different pathogens spreading in the same host population often generate complex co-circulation dynamics because of the many possible interactions between the pathogens and the host immune system, the host life cycle, and the space structure of the population. Here we focus on the competition between two acute infections and we address the role of host mobility and cross-immunity in shaping possible dominance/co-dominance regimes. Host mobility is modelled as a network of traveling flows connecting nodes of a metapopulation, and the two-pathogen dynamics is simulated with a stochastic mechanistic approach. Results depict a complex scenario where, according to the relation among the epidemiological parameters of the two pathogens, mobility can either be non-influential for the competition dynamics or play a critical role in selecting the dominant pathogen. The characterisation of the parameter space can be explained in terms of the trade-off between pathogen's spreading velocity and its ability to diffuse in a sparse environment. Variations in the cross-immunity level induce a transition between presence and absence of competition. The present study disentangles the role of the relevant biological and ecological factors in the competition dynamics, and provides relevant insights into the spatial ecology of infectious diseases.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2014

Inter-groups information exchange drives Cooperation in the Public Goods Game

In this manuscript we explore the onset of cooperative traits in the Public Goods game. This well-known game involves N-agent interactions and thus reproduces a large number of social scenarios in which cooperation appears to be essential. Many studies have recently addressed how the structure of the interaction patterns influences the emergence of cooperation. Here we study how information about the payoffs collected by each individual in the different groups it participates in, influences the decisions made by its group partners. Our results point out that cross-information plays a fundamental and positive role in the evolution of cooperation for different versions of the Public Goods game and different interaction structures.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

Dynamics of interacting diseases

Current modeling of infectious diseases allows for the study of complex and realistic scenarios that go from the population to the individual level of description. However, most epidemic models assume that the spreading process takes place on a single level (be it a single population, a meta-population system or a network of contacts). In particular, interdependent contagion phenomena can only be addressed if we go beyond the scheme one pathogen-one network. In this paper, we propose a framework that allows describing the spreading dynamics of two concurrent diseases. Specifically, we characterize analytically the epidemic thresholds of the two diseases for different scenarios and also compute the temporal evolution characterizing the unfolding dynamics. Results show that there are regions of the parameter space in which the onset of a disease's outbreak is conditioned to the prevalence levels of the other disease. Moreover, we show, for the SIS scheme, that under certain circumstances, finite and not vanishing epidemic thresholds are found even at the thermodynamic limit for scale-free networks. For the SIR scenario, the phenomenology is richer and additional interdependencies show up. We also find that the secondary thresholds for the SIS and SIR models are different, which results directly from the interaction between both diseases. Our work thus solve an important problem and pave the way towards a more comprehensive description of the dynamics of interacting diseases.

physics.soc-ph↗