arXiv subjects

Yan Shuo Tan

Publications and source records attributed to Yan Shuo Tan.

34 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

TabPFN: One Model to Rule Them All?

Hollmann et al. (Nature 637 (2025) 319-326) recently introduced TabPFN, a transformer-based deep learning model for regression and classification on tabular data, which they claim "outperforms all previous methods on datasets with up to 10,000 samples by a wide margin, using substantially less training time." Furthermore, they have called TabPFN a "foundation model" for tabular data, as it can support "data generation, density estimation, learning reusable embeddings and fine-tuning". In this paper, we provide a tailored explanation of how TabPFN works for a statistics audience, by emphasizing its interpretation as approximate Bayesian inference. We then explore the significance of TabPFN to the field of statistics: We show that an out-of-the-box application of TabPFN can sometimes outperform specialized state-of-the-art methods for semi-supervised parameter estimation, prediction under covariate shift, and heterogeneous treatment effect estimation. As a partial explanation for the predictive effectiveness of TabPFN, we show that it can simultaneously adapt to both nonparametric structure and parametric structure, for instance, sometimes outperforming LASSO even when assumptions are correctly specified. All experiments can be reproduced using the code provided at https://github.com/qinglong-tian/tabpfn_study (https://github.com/qinglong-tian/tabpfn_study).

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Statistical-Computational Trade-offs for Recursive Adaptive Partitioning Estimators

Models based on recursive adaptive partitioning such as decision trees and their ensembles are popular for high-dimensional regression as they can potentially avoid the curse of dimensionality. Because empirical risk minimization (ERM) is computationally infeasible, these models are typically trained using greedy algorithms. Although effective in many cases, these algorithms have been empirically observed to get stuck at local optima. We explore this phenomenon in the context of learning sparse regression functions over $d$ binary features, showing that when the true regression function $f^*$ does not satisfy Abbe et al. (2022)'s Merged Staircase Property (MSP), greedy training requires $\exp(Ω(d))$ to achieve low estimation error. Conversely, when $f^*$ does satisfy MSP, greedy training can attain small estimation error with only $O(\log d)$ samples. This dichotomy mirrors that of two-layer neural networks trained with stochastic gradient descent (SGD) in the mean-field regime, thereby establishing a head-to-head comparison between SGD-trained neural networks and greedy recursive partitioning estimators. Furthermore, ERM-trained recursive partitioning estimators achieve low estimation error with $O(\log d)$ samples irrespective of whether $f^*$ satisfies MSP, thereby demonstrating a statistical-computational trade-off for greedy training. Our proofs are based on a novel interpretation of greedy recursive partitioning using stochastic process theory and a coupling technique that may be of independent interest.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Integrating Random Forests and Generalized Linear Models for Improved Accuracy and Interpretability

Random forests (RFs) are among the most popular supervised learning algorithms due to their nonlinear flexibility and ease-of-use. However, as black box models, they can only be interpreted via algorithmically-defined feature importance methods, such as Mean Decrease in Impurity (MDI), which have been observed to be highly unstable and have ambiguous scientific meaning. Furthermore, they can perform poorly in the presence of smooth or additive structure. To address this, we reinterpret decision trees and MDI as linear regression and $R^2$ values, respectively, with respect to engineered features associated with the tree's decision splits. This allows us to combine the respective strengths of RFs and generalized linear models in a framework called RF+, which also yields an improved feature importance method we call MDI+. Through extensive data-inspired simulations and real-world datasets, we show that RF+ improves prediction accuracy over RFs and that MDI+ outperforms popular feature importance measures in identifying signal features, often yielding more than a 10% improvement over its closest competitor. In case studies on drug response prediction and breast cancer subtyping, we further show that MDI+ extracts well-established genes with significantly greater stability compared to existing feature importance measures.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Error Reduction from Stacked Regressions

Stacking regressions is an ensemble technique that forms linear combinations of different regression estimators to enhance predictive accuracy. The conventional approach uses cross-validation data to generate predictions from the constituent estimators, and least-squares with nonnegativity constraints to learn the combination weights. In this paper, we learn these weights analogously by minimizing a regularized version of the empirical risk subject to a nonnegativity constraint. When the constituent estimators are linear least-squares projections onto nested subspaces separated by at least three dimensions, we show that thanks to an adaptive shrinkage effect, the resulting stacked estimator has strictly smaller population risk than best single estimator among them, with more significant gains when the signal-to-noise ratio is small. Here "best" refers to an estimator that minimizes a model selection criterion such as AIC or BIC. In other words, in this setting, the best single estimator is inadmissible. Because the optimization problem can be reformulated as isotonic regression, the stacked estimator requires the same order of computation as the best single estimator, making it an attractive alternative in terms of both performance and implementation.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Fast Interpretable Greedy-Tree Sums

Modern machine learning has achieved impressive prediction performance, but often sacrifices interpretability, a critical consideration in high-stakes domains such as medicine. In such settings, practitioners often use highly interpretable decision tree models, but these suffer from inductive bias against additive structure. To overcome this bias, we propose Fast Interpretable Greedy-Tree Sums (FIGS), which generalizes the CART algorithm to simultaneously grow a flexible number of trees in summation. By combining logical rules with addition, FIGS is able to adapt to additive structure while remaining highly interpretable. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets show that FIGS achieves state-of-the-art prediction performance. To demonstrate the usefulness of FIGS in high-stakes domains, we adapt FIGS to learn clinical decision instruments (CDIs), which are tools for guiding clinical decision-making. Specifically, we introduce a variant of FIGS known as G-FIGS that accounts for the heterogeneity in medical data. G-FIGS derives CDIs that reflect domain knowledge and enjoy improved specificity (by up to 20% over CART) without sacrificing sensitivity or interpretability. To provide further insight into FIGS, we prove that FIGS learns components of additive models, a property we refer to as disentanglement. Further, we show (under oracle conditions) that unconstrained tree-sum models leverage disentanglement to generalize more efficiently than single decision tree models when fitted to additive regression functions. Finally, to avoid overfitting with an unconstrained number of splits, we develop Bagging-FIGS, an ensemble version of FIGS that borrows the variance reduction techniques of random forests. Bagging-FIGS enjoys competitive performance with random forests and XGBoost on real-world datasets.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

A Mixing Time Lower Bound for a Simplified Version of BART

Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) is a popular Bayesian non-parametric regression algorithm. The posterior is a distribution over sums of decision trees, and predictions are made by averaging approximate samples from the posterior. The combination of strong predictive performance and the ability to provide uncertainty measures has led BART to be commonly used in the social sciences, biostatistics, and causal inference. BART uses Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to obtain approximate posterior samples over a parameterized space of sums of trees, but it has often been observed that the chains are slow to mix. In this paper, we provide the first lower bound on the mixing time for a simplified version of BART in which we reduce the sum to a single tree and use a subset of the possible moves for the MCMC proposal distribution. Our lower bound for the mixing time grows exponentially with the number of data points. Inspired by this new connection between the mixing time and the number of data points, we perform rigorous simulations on BART. We show qualitatively that BART's mixing time increases with the number of data points. The slow mixing time of the simplified BART suggests a large variation between different runs of the simplified BART algorithm and a similar large variation is known for BART in the literature. This large variation could result in a lack of stability in the models, predictions, and posterior intervals obtained from the BART MCMC samples. Our lower bound and simulations suggest increasing the number of chains with the number of data points.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

Hierarchical Shrinkage: improving the accuracy and interpretability of tree-based methods

Tree-based models such as decision trees and random forests (RF) are a cornerstone of modern machine-learning practice. To mitigate overfitting, trees are typically regularized by a variety of techniques that modify their structure (e.g. pruning). We introduce Hierarchical Shrinkage (HS), a post-hoc algorithm that does not modify the tree structure, and instead regularizes the tree by shrinking the prediction over each node towards the sample means of its ancestors. The amount of shrinkage is controlled by a single regularization parameter and the number of data points in each ancestor. Since HS is a post-hoc method, it is extremely fast, compatible with any tree growing algorithm, and can be used synergistically with other regularization techniques. Extensive experiments over a wide variety of real-world datasets show that HS substantially increases the predictive performance of decision trees, even when used in conjunction with other regularization techniques. Moreover, we find that applying HS to each tree in an RF often improves accuracy, as well as its interpretability by simplifying and stabilizing its decision boundaries and SHAP values. We further explain the success of HS in improving prediction performance by showing its equivalence to ridge regression on a (supervised) basis constructed of decision stumps associated with the internal nodes of a tree. All code and models are released in a full-fledged package available on Github (github.com/csinva/imodels)

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

A cautionary tale on fitting decision trees to data from additive models: generalization lower bounds

Decision trees are important both as interpretable models amenable to high-stakes decision-making, and as building blocks of ensemble methods such as random forests and gradient boosting. Their statistical properties, however, are not well understood. The most cited prior works have focused on deriving pointwise consistency guarantees for CART in a classical nonparametric regression setting. We take a different approach, and advocate studying the generalization performance of decision trees with respect to different generative regression models. This allows us to elicit their inductive bias, that is, the assumptions the algorithms make (or do not make) to generalize to new data, thereby guiding practitioners on when and how to apply these methods. In this paper, we focus on sparse additive generative models, which have both low statistical complexity and some nonparametric flexibility. We prove a sharp squared error generalization lower bound for a large class of decision tree algorithms fitted to sparse additive models with $C^1$ component functions. This bound is surprisingly much worse than the minimax rate for estimating such sparse additive models. The inefficiency is due not to greediness, but to the loss in power for detecting global structure when we average responses solely over each leaf, an observation that suggests opportunities to improve tree-based algorithms, for example, by hierarchical shrinkage. To prove these bounds, we develop new technical machinery, establishing a novel connection between decision tree estimation and rate-distortion theory, a sub-field of information theory.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Subspace Clustering using Ensembles of $K$-Subspaces

Subspace clustering is the unsupervised grouping of points lying near a union of low-dimensional linear subspaces. Algorithms based directly on geometric properties of such data tend to either provide poor empirical performance, lack theoretical guarantees, or depend heavily on their initialization. We present a novel geometric approach to the subspace clustering problem that leverages ensembles of the K-subspaces (KSS) algorithm via the evidence accumulation clustering framework. Our algorithm, referred to as ensemble K-subspaces (EKSS), forms a co-association matrix whose (i,j)th entry is the number of times points i and j are clustered together by several runs of KSS with random initializations. We prove general recovery guarantees for any algorithm that forms an affinity matrix with entries close to a monotonic transformation of pairwise absolute inner products. We then show that a specific instance of EKSS results in an affinity matrix with entries of this form, and hence our proposed algorithm can provably recover subspaces under similar conditions to state-of-the-art algorithms. The finding is, to the best of our knowledge, the first recovery guarantee for evidence accumulation clustering and for KSS variants. We show on synthetic data that our method performs well in the traditionally challenging settings of subspaces with large intersection, subspaces with small principal angles, and noisy data. Finally, we evaluate our algorithm on six common benchmark datasets and show that unlike existing methods, EKSS achieves excellent empirical performance when there are both a small and large number of points per subspace.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2020

Stable discovery of interpretable subgroups via calibration in causal studies

Building on Yu and Kumbier's PCS framework and for randomized experiments, we introduce a novel methodology for Stable Discovery of Interpretable Subgroups via Calibration (StaDISC), with large heterogeneous treatment effects. StaDISC was developed during our re-analysis of the 1999-2000 VIGOR study, an 8076 patient randomized controlled trial (RCT), that compared the risk of adverse events from a then newly approved drug, Rofecoxib (Vioxx), to that from an older drug Naproxen. Vioxx was found to, on average and in comparison to Naproxen, reduce the risk of gastrointestinal (GI) events but increase the risk of thrombotic cardiovascular (CVT) events. Applying StaDISC, we fit 18 popular conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimators for both outcomes and use calibration to demonstrate their poor global performance. However, they are locally well-calibrated and stable, enabling the identification of patient groups with larger than (estimated) average treatment effects. In fact, StaDISC discovers three clinically interpretable subgroups each for the GI outcome (totaling 29.4% of the study size) and the CVT outcome (totaling 11.0%). Complementary analyses of the found subgroups using the 2001-2004 APPROVe study, a separate independently conducted RCT with 2587 patients, provides further supporting evidence for the promise of StaDISC.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

Curating a COVID-19 data repository and forecasting county-level death counts in the United States

As the COVID-19 outbreak evolves, accurate forecasting continues to play an extremely important role in informing policy decisions. In this paper, we present our continuous curation of a large data repository containing COVID-19 information from a range of sources. We use this data to develop predictions and corresponding prediction intervals for the short-term trajectory of COVID-19 cumulative death counts at the county-level in the United States up to two weeks ahead. Using data from January 22 to June 20, 2020, we develop and combine multiple forecasts using ensembling techniques, resulting in an ensemble we refer to as Combined Linear and Exponential Predictors (CLEP). Our individual predictors include county-specific exponential and linear predictors, a shared exponential predictor that pools data together across counties, an expanded shared exponential predictor that uses data from neighboring counties, and a demographics-based shared exponential predictor. We use prediction errors from the past five days to assess the uncertainty of our death predictions, resulting in generally-applicable prediction intervals, Maximum (absolute) Error Prediction Intervals (MEPI). MEPI achieves a coverage rate of more than 94% when averaged across counties for predicting cumulative recorded death counts two weeks in the future. Our forecasts are currently being used by the non-profit organization, Response4Life, to determine the medical supply need for individual hospitals and have directly contributed to the distribution of medical supplies across the country. We hope that our forecasts and data repository at https://covidseverity.com can help guide necessary county-specific decision-making and help counties prepare for their continued fight against COVID-19.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2019

Online Stochastic Gradient Descent with Arbitrary Initialization Solves Non-smooth, Non-convex Phase Retrieval

In recent literature, a general two step procedure has been formulated for solving the problem of phase retrieval. First, a spectral technique is used to obtain a constant-error initial estimate, following which, the estimate is refined to arbitrary precision by first-order optimization of a non-convex loss function. Numerical experiments, however, seem to suggest that simply running the iterative schemes from a random initialization may also lead to convergence, albeit at the cost of slightly higher sample complexity. In this paper, we prove that, in fact, constant step size online stochastic gradient descent (SGD) converges from arbitrary initializations for the non-smooth, non-convex amplitude squared loss objective. In this setting, online SGD is also equivalent to the randomized Kaczmarz algorithm from numerical analysis. Our analysis can easily be generalized to other single index models. It also makes use of new ideas from stochastic process theory, including the notion of a summary state space, which we believe will be of use for the broader field of non-convex optimization.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

Phase Retrieval via Randomized Kaczmarz: Theoretical Guarantees

We consider the problem of phase retrieval, i.e. that of solving systems of quadratic equations. A simple variant of the randomized Kaczmarz method was recently proposed for phase retrieval, and it was shown numerically to have a computational edge over state-of-the-art Wirtinger flow methods. In this paper, we provide the first theoretical guarantee for the convergence of the randomized Kaczmarz method for phase retrieval. We show that it is sufficient to have as many Gaussian measurements as the dimension, up to a constant factor. Along the way, we introduce a sufficient condition on measurement sets for which the randomized Kaczmarz method is guaranteed to work. We show that Gaussian sampling vectors satisfy this property with high probability; this is proved using a chaining argument coupled with bounds on VC dimension and metric entropy.

math.NA↗

arXiv2018

Energy optimization for distributions on the sphere and improvement to the Welch bounds

For any Borel probability measure on $\mathbb{R}^n$, we may define a family of eccentricity tensors. This new notion, together with a tensorization trick, allows us to prove an energy minimization property for rotationally invariant probability measures. We use this theory to give a new proof of the Welch bounds, and to improve upon them for collections of real vectors. In addition, we are able to give elementary proofs for two theorems characterizing probability measures optimizing one-parameter families of energy integrals on the sphere. We are also able to explain why a phase transition occurs for optimizers of these two families.

math.PR↗

arXiv2017

Sparse Phase Retrieval via Sparse PCA Despite Model Misspecification: A Simplified and Extended Analysis

We consider the problem of high-dimensional misspecified phase retrieval. This is where we have an $s$-sparse signal vector $\mathbf{x}_*$ in $\mathbb{R}^n$, which we wish to recover using sampling vectors $\textbf{a}_1,\ldots,\textbf{a}_m$, and measurements $y_1,\ldots,y_m$, which are related by the equation $f(\left<\textbf{a}_i,\textbf{x}_*\right>) = y_i$. Here, $f$ is an unknown link function satisfying a positive correlation with the quadratic function. This problem was analyzed in a recent paper by Neykov, Wang and Liu, who provided recovery guarantees for a two-stage algorithm with sample complexity $m = O(s^2\log n)$. In this paper, we show that the first stage of their algorithm suffices for signal recovery with the same sample complexity, and extend the analysis to non-Gaussian measurements. Furthermore, we show how the algorithm can be generalized to recover a signal vector $\textbf{x}_*$ efficiently given geometric prior information other than sparsity.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2017

Polynomial Time and Sample Complexity for Non-Gaussian Component Analysis: Spectral Methods

The problem of Non-Gaussian Component Analysis (NGCA) is about finding a maximal low-dimensional subspace $E$ in $\mathbb{R}^n$ so that data points projected onto $E$ follow a non-gaussian distribution. Although this is an appropriate model for some real world data analysis problems, there has been little progress on this problem over the last decade. In this paper, we attempt to address this state of affairs in two ways. First, we give a new characterization of standard gaussian distributions in high-dimensions, which lead to effective tests for non-gaussianness. Second, we propose a simple algorithm, \emph{Reweighted PCA}, as a method for solving the NGCA problem. We prove that for a general unknown non-gaussian distribution, this algorithm recovers at least one direction in $E$, with sample and time complexity depending polynomially on the dimension of the ambient space. We conjecture that the algorithm actually recovers the entire $E$.

cs.LG↗