arXiv subjects

Yaneer Bar-Yam

Publications and source records attributed to Yaneer Bar-Yam.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2018

A Mathematical Theory of Interpersonal Interactions and Group Behavior

Emergent collective group processes and capabilities have been studied through analysis of transactive memory, measures of group task performance, and group intelligence, among others. In their approach to collective behaviors, these approaches transcend traditional studies of group decision making that focus on how individual preferences combine through power relationships, social choice by voting, negotiation and game theory. Understanding more generally how individuals contribute to group effectiveness is important to a broad set of social challenges. Here we formalize a dynamic theory of interpersonal communications that classifies individual acts, sequences of actions, group behavioral patterns, and individuals engaged in group decision making. Group decision making occurs through a sequence of communications that convey personal attitudes and preferences among members of the group. The resulting formalism is relevant to psychosocial behavior analysis, rules of order, organizational structures and personality types, as well as formalized systems such as social choice theory. More centrally, it provides a framework for quantifying and even anticipating the structure of informal dialog, allowing specific conversations to be coded and analyzed in relation to a quantitative model of the participating individuals and the parameters that govern their interactions.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

The Inherent Instability of Disordered Systems

The Multiscale Law of Requisite Variety is a scientific law relating, at each scale, the variation in an environment to the variation in internal state that is necessary for effective response by a system. While this law has been used to describe the effectiveness of systems in self-regulation, the consequences for failure have not been formalized. Here we use this law to consider the internal dynamics of an unstructured system, and its response to a structured environment. We find that, due to its inability to respond, a completely unstructured system is inherently unstable to the formation of structure. And in general, any system without structure above a certain scale is unable to withstand structure arising above that scale. To describe complicated internal dynamics, we develop a characterization of multiscale changes in a system. This characterization is motivated by Shannon information theoretic ideas of noise, but considers structured information. We then relate our findings to political anarchism showing that society requires some organizing processes, even if there is no traditional government or hierarchies. We also formulate our findings as an inverse second law of thermodynamics; while closed systems collapse into disorder, systems open to a structured environment spontaneously generate order.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Power and Leadership: A Complex Systems Science Approach Part I - Representation and Dynamics

Historical narratives are dominated by actions of powerful individuals as well as competitions for power. Characterizing the origins, types and competitive strength of different kinds of power may yield a scaffolding for understanding historical processes and mechanisms for winning or avoiding conflicts. Michael Mann distinguished four types of power: political, military, economic, and ideological. We show this framework is justified by four motivations of individuals to transfer decisions to leaders: Desire to be a member of a collective, avoiding harm due to threat, gaining benefit due to payment, acquiring a value system. Constructing models of societies based upon these types of power enables distinguishing social systems and describing their dynamics. Dynamics include (a) competition between power systems, (b) competition between powerful individuals, and (c) the dynamics of values within a powerful individual. A historical trend is the progressive separation of types of power to distinct groups of individuals. In ancient empires all forms of power were concentrated in a single individual, e.g. Caesar during the Pax Romana period. In an idealized modern democratic state, the four types of power are concentrated in distinct sets of individuals. The progressive separation suggests that in some contexts this confers a "fitness" advantage in an evolutionary process similar to the selection of biological organisms. However, individual countries may not separate power completely. The influence of wealth in politics and regulatory capture is a signature of economic leader dominance, e.g. the US. Important roles of political leaders in economics and corruption are a signature of the political leader dominance, e.g. China. Ideological leaders dominate in theocracies, e.g. Iran. Military leaders dominate in dictatorships or where military leaders select leadership, e.g. Egypt.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Renormalization of Sparse Disorder in the Ising Model

We consider the renormalization of quenched bond disorder in the Ising model in the limit that it is sparse -- highly localized and vanishing in the thermodynamic limit. We begin in 1D with arbitrary disorder assigned to a finite number of bonds and study how the system renormalizes, finding non-trivial fixed point structure for any given bond with a separatrix at zero bond strength, equivalent to inserting a break in the chain. Either side of this critical line, renormalization group (RG) trajectories flow towards one of two attractors on which the disordered bonds settle onto ferromagnetic or anti-ferromagnetic (AF) couplings of equal and opposite magnitude. Bonds that settle on an AF attractor are equivalent to inserting a twist in the chain at the location of the bond, implying a multi-kink ground state solution. Qualitatively different behavior emerges at the RG step when bonds start to coalesce, with the chain `untwisting' whenever two AF bonds coalesce. Our findings generalize to higher dimensions for codimension one defects that are sparse from the perspective of the orthogonal complement lattice. In 2D, the $\mathbb Z_2$ symmetry of the model has an IR manifestation where one can construct field strengths and Wilson loops (which characterize frustration) from fundamental plaquette variables. In the non-sparse limit where the disorder parameter is drawn from an arbitrary but homogeneously assigned probability distribution function, we recover previously found fixed distributions as special cases, but find only the trivial paramagnetic distribution to be an attractor. For non-homogeneously assigned disorder that is sufficiently dilute however, we find the Edwards-Anderson model with equal probability $\pm J$ bonds to also be an IR attractor.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2018

The Stock Market Has Grown Unstable Since February 2018

On the fifth of February, 2018, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1,175.21 points, the largest single-day fall in history in raw point terms. This followed a 666-point loss on the second, and another drop of over a thousand points occurred three days later. It is natural to ask whether these events indicate a transition to a new regime of market behavior, particularly given the dramatic fluctuations --- both gains and losses --- in the weeks since. To illuminate this matter, we can apply a model grounded in the science of complex systems, a model that demonstrated considerable success at unraveling the stock-market dynamics from the 1980s through the 2000s. By using large-scale comovement of stock prices as an early indicator of unhealthy market dynamics, this work found that abrupt drops in a certain parameter $U$ provide an early warning of single-day panics and economic crises. Decreases in $U$ indicate regimes of "high co-movement", a market behavior that is not the same as volatility, though market volatility can be a component of co-movement. Applying the same analysis to stock-price data from the beginning of 2016 until now, we find that the $U$ value for the period since 5 February is significantly lower than for the period before. This decrease entered the "danger zone" in the last week of May, 2018.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2017

Preliminary steps toward a universal economic dynamics for monetary and fiscal policy

We consider the relationship between economic activity and intervention, including monetary and fiscal policy, using a universal dynamic framework. Central bank policies are designed for growth without excess inflation. However, unemployment, investment, consumption, and inflation are interlinked. Understanding dynamics is crucial to assessing the effects of policy, especially in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Here we lay out a program of research into monetary and economic dynamics and preliminary steps toward its execution. We use principles of response theory to derive implications for policy. We find that the current approach, which considers the overall money supply, is insufficient to regulate economic growth. While it can achieve some degree of control, optimizing growth also requires a fiscal policy balancing monetary injection between two dominant loop flows, the consumption and wages loop, and investment and returns loop. The balance arises from a composite of government tax, entitlement, subsidy policies, corporate policies, as well as monetary policy. We show empirically that a transition occurred in 1980 between two regimes--an oversupply to the consumption and wages loop, to an oversupply of the investment and returns loop. The imbalance is manifest in savings and borrowing by consumers and investors, and in inflation. The latter increased until 1980, and decreased subsequently, resulting in a zero rate largely unrelated to the financial crisis. Three recessions and the financial crisis are part of this dynamic. Optimizing growth now requires shifting the balance. Our analysis supports advocates of greater income and / or government support for the poor who use a larger fraction of income for consumption. This promotes investment due to growth in demand. Otherwise, investment opportunities are limited, capital remains uninvested, and does not contribute to growth.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2017

How Do People Differ? A Social Media Approach

Research from a variety of fields including psychology and linguistics have found correlations and patterns in personal attributes and behavior, but efforts to understand the broader heterogeneity in human behavior have not yet integrated these approaches and perspectives with a cohesive methodology. Here we extract patterns in behavior and relate those patterns together in a high-dimensional picture. We use dimension reduction to analyze word usage in text data from the online discussion platform Reddit. We find that pronouns can be used to characterize the space of the two most prominent dimensions that capture the greatest differences in word usage, even though pronouns were not included in the determination of those dimensions. These patterns overlap with patterns of topics of discussion to reveal relationships between pronouns and topics that can describe the user population. This analysis corroborates findings from past research that have identified word use differences across populations and synthesizes them relative to one another. We believe this is a step toward understanding how differences between people are related to each other.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2017

The Case for Pyriproxyfen as a Potential Cause for Microcephaly; From Biology to Epidemiology

The Zika virus has been found in individual cases but has not been confirmed as the cause of in the large number of cases of microcephaly in Brazil in 2015-6. Indeed, disparities between the incidence of Zika and microcephaly across geographic locations has led to questions about the virus's role. Here we consider whether the insecticide pyriproxyfen used in Brazilian drinking water might be the primary cause or a cofactor. Pyriproxifen is a juvenile hormone analog which has been shown to correspond in mammals to a number of fat soluble regulatory molecules including retinoic acid, a metabolite of vitamin A, with which it has cross-reactivity and whose application during development has been shown to cause microcephaly. Methoprene, another juvenile hormone analog approved as an insecticide in the 1970s has been shown to cause developmental disorders in mammals. Isotretinoin is another retinoid causing microcephaly via activation of the retinoid X receptor in developing fetuses. We review tests of pyriproxyfen by the manufacturer Sumitomo, which actually found some evidence for this effect, including low brain mass and arhinencephaly in exposed rat pups. Pyriproxyfen use in Brazil is unprecedented, never having been applied to a water supply on a large scale. Claims that its geographical pattern of use rule it out as a cause have not been documented or confirmed. On the other hand, the very few microcephaly cases reported in Colombia and the wide discrepancies of incidence in different states across Brazil despite large numbers of Zika cases undermine the claim that Zika is the cause. Given this combination of potential molecular mechanism, toxicological and epidemiological evidence we strongly recommend that the use of pyriproxyfen in Brazil be suspended until the potential causal link to microcephaly is investigated further.

q-bio.TO↗

arXiv2017

Global Patterns of Synchronization in Human Communications

Social media are transforming global communication and coordination. The data derived from social media can reveal patterns of human behavior at all levels and scales of society. Using geolocated Twitter data, we have quantified collective behaviors across multiple scales, ranging from the commutes of individuals, to the daily pulse of 50 major urban areas and global patterns of human coordination. Human activity and mobility patterns manifest the synchrony required for contingency of actions between individuals. Urban areas show regular cycles of contraction and expansion that resembles heartbeats linked primarily to social rather than natural cycles. Business hours and circadian rhythms influence daily cycles of work, recreation, and sleep. Different urban areas have characteristic signatures of daily collective activities. The differences are consistent with a new emergent global synchrony that couples behavior in distant regions across the world. A globally synchronized peak that includes exchange of ideas and information across Europe, Africa, Asia and Australasia. We propose a dynamical model to explain the emergence of global synchrony in the context of increasing global communication and reproduce the observed behavior. The collective patterns we observe show how social interactions lead to interdependence of behavior manifest in the synchronization of communication. The creation and maintenance of temporally sensitive social relationships results in the emergence of complexity of the larger scale behavior of the social system.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

Analysis of Infectious-Recovery Epidemic Models for Membership Dynamics of Online Social Networks

The recent rapid growth of social media and online social networks (OSNs) has raised interesting questions about the spread of ideas and fads within our society. In the past year, several papers have drawn analogies between the rise and fall in popularity of OSNs and mathematical models used to study infectious disease. One such model, the irSIR model, made use of the idea of "infectious recovery" to outperform the traditional SIR model in replicating the rise and fall of MySpace and to predict a rapid drop in the popularity of Facebook. Here we explore the irSIR model and two of its logical extensions and we mathematically characterize the initial and long-run behavior of these dynamical systems. In particular, while the original irSIR model always predicts extinction of a social epidemic, we construct an extension of the model that matches the exponential growth phase of the irSIR model while allowing for the possibility of an arbitrary proportion of infections in the long run.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2016

A Possible Link Between Pyriproxyfen and Microcephaly

The Zika virus is the primary suspect in the large increase in microcephaly cases in 2015-6 in Brazil, however its role is unconfirmed despite individual cases of viral infections found in neural tissue. Here we consider the alternative that the insecticide pyriproxyfen, used in Brazilian drinking water for mosquito control, may actually be the cause. Pyriproxifen is an analog of juvenile hormone, which corresponds in mammals to regulatory molecules including retinoic acid, a vitamin A metabolite, with which it has cross-reactivity and whose application during development causes microcephaly. Methoprene, another juvenile hormone analog approved as an insecticide has metabolites that bind to the retinoid X receptor, and causes developmental disorders in mammals. Isotretinoin is another example of a retinoid causing microcephaly in human babies via activation of the retinoid X receptor. Moreover, tests of pyriproxyfen by the manufacturer, Sumitomo, widely quoted as giving no evidence for developmental toxicity, actually found some evidence for such an effect, including low brain mass and arhinencephaly--incomplete formation of the anterior cerebral hemispheres--in rat pups. Finally, the pyriproxyfen use in Brazil is unprecedented--it has never before been applied to a water supply on such a scale. Claims that it is not being used in Recife, the epicenter of microcephaly cases, do not distinguish the metropolitan area of Recife, where it is widely used, and the municipality, where it is not. Given this combination of information we strongly recommend that the use of pyriproxyfen in Brazil be suspended pending further investigation.

q-bio.QM↗

arXiv2016

From Big Data To Important Information

Advances in science are being sought in newly available opportunities to collect massive quantities of data about complex systems. While key advances are being made in detailed mapping of systems, how to relate this data to solving many of the challenges facing humanity is unclear. The questions we often wish to address require identifying the impact of interventions on the system and that impact is not apparent in the detailed data that is available. Here we review key concepts and motivate a general framework for building larger scale views of complex systems and for characterizing the importance of information in physical, biological and social systems. We provide examples of its application to evolutionary biology with relevance to ecology, biodiversity, pandemics, and human lifespan, and in the context of social systems with relevance to ethnic violence, global food prices, and stock market panic. Framing scientific inquiry as an effort to determine what is important and unimportant is a means for advancing our understanding and addressing many practical concerns, such as economic development or treating disease.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

Military Strategy in a Complex World

A strategy is a plan, method, or series of actions for obtaining a specified goal. A military strategy typically employs the threat or use of military force in opposition to an adversary, and is called upon where large scale force is viewed as the way to achieve such goals. Strategic thinking is traditionally focused on which part or combination of land, air, and naval forces is most effective. This may be too narrow an approach to accomplishing the ultimate end, which is generally political influence or control--or preventing influence or control by others--and almost never consists of physical destruction itself. In order to broaden the discussion of military strategy, we consider here three distinct effects of inflicting stress on an opponent: a) A fragile system is damaged--possibly catastrophically, b) A robust system is largely unaffected, retaining much or all of its prior strength, c) Some systems actually gain strength, a property which has recently been termed antifragility. Traditional perspectives of military strategy implicitly assume fragility, limiting their validity and resulting in surprise, and assume a specific end state rather than an overall condition of the system as a goal. Robustness and antifragility are relevant both to offense and defense. While robustness and antifragility are desirable in friendly systems, an enemy possessing these characteristics undermines the premise that an attack will achieve a desired increase in control. Historical and contemporary examples demonstrate the failure of traditional strategies against antifragile enemies--even devastating damage inflicted upon nations or other organizations did not weaken and defeat them, but rather strengthened them, resulting in their victory. Underlying such successful responses are socio-economic or political strengths. Our discussion is a basis for scientific analysis of improved strategic thinking.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

Special Operations Forces: A Global Immune System?

The use of special operations forces (SOF) in war fighting and peace keeping efforts has increased dramatically in recent decades. A scientific understanding of the reason for this increase would provide guidance as to the contexts in which SOF can be used to their best effect. Ashby's law of requisite variety provides a scientific framework for understanding and analyzing a system's ability to survive and prosper in the face of environmental challenges. We have developed a generalization of this law to extend the analysis to systems that must respond to disturbances at multiple scales. This analysis identifies a necessary tradeoff between scale and complexity in a multiscale control system. As with Ashby's law, the framework applies to the characterization of successful biological and social systems in the context of complex environmental challenges. Here we apply this multiscale framework to provide a control theoretic understanding of the historical and increasing need for SOF, as well as conventional military forces. We propose that the essential role distinction is in the separation between high complexity fine scale challenges as opposed to large scale challenges. This leads to a correspondence between the role SOF can best serve and that of the immune system in complex organisms--namely, the ability to respond to fine-grained, high-complexity disruptors and preserve tissue health. Much like a multicellular organism, human civilization is composed of a set of distinct and heterogeneous social tissues. Responding to disruption and restoring health in a system with highly diverse local social conditions is an essentially complex task. SOF have the potential to mitigate against harm without disrupting normal social tissue behavior. This analysis suggests how SOF might be leveraged to support global stability and mitigate against cascading crises.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

Beyond Contact Tracing: Community-Based Early Detection for Ebola Response

The 2014 Ebola outbreak in west Africa raised many questions about the control of infectious disease in an increasingly connected global society. Limited availability of contact information made contact tracing difficult or impractical in combating the outbreak. We consider the development of multi-scale public health strategies and simulate policies for community-level response aimed at early screening of communities rather than individuals, as well as travel restrictions to prevent community cross-contamination. Our analysis shows the policies to be effective even at a relatively low level of compliance. In our simulations, 40% of individuals conforming to these policies is enough to stop the outbreak. Simulations with a 50% compliance rate are consistent with the case counts in Liberia during the period of rapid decline after mid September, 2014. We also find the travel restriction to be effective at reducing the risks associated with compliance substantially below the 40% level, shortening the outbreak and enabling efforts to be focused on affected areas. Our results suggest that the multi-scale approach can be used to further evolve public health strategy for defeating emerging epidemics.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

Step by Step to Peace in Syria

The revolution and Civil War in Syria has led to substantial death and suffering, a massive refugee crisis, and growth of ISIS extremism and its terror attacks globally. Conflict between disparate groups is ongoing. Complex ethnic geography is a central reason for the large number of different groups in conflict as this geography leads to local allegiances that do not aggregate at the national scale. We have previously demonstrated that, where ethnic groups exist in geographic patches of 20-60 km in diameter, there is a high probability of conflict. We have also shown that establishing local autonomy through subnational boundaries (as is found in Switzerland) is a means of alleviating conflict. Our analysis suggests that providing some level of local autonomy to the ethnic groups would reduce the impetus for local conflict and could serve as a basis for peace and stability. Here we propose that interventions should be pursued to stop specific individual local conflicts, creating safe zones, that can be expanded gradually and serve as examples for achieving a comprehensive solution for safety, peace and stable local governance in Syria.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

Global Patterns of Human Synchronization

Social media are transforming global communication and coordination and provide unprecedented opportunities for studying socio-technical domains. Here we study global dynamical patterns of communication on Twitter across many scales. Underlying the observed patterns is both the diurnal rotation of the earth, day and night, and the synchrony required for contingency of actions between individuals. We find that urban areas show a cyclic contraction and expansion that resembles heartbeats linked to social rather than natural cycles. Different urban areas have characteristic signatures of daily collective activities. We show that the differences detected are consistent with a new emergent global synchrony that couples behavior in distant regions across the world. Although local synchrony is the major force that shapes the collective behavior in cities, a larger-scale synchronization is beginning to occur.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

Theory and associated phenomenology for intrinsic mortality arising from natural selection

Standard evolutionary theories of aging and mortality, implicitly based on assumptions of spatial averaging, hold that natural selection cannot favor shorter lifespan without direct compensating benefit to individual reproductive success. Here we show that both theory and phenomenology are consistent with programmed death. Spatial evolutionary models show that self-limited lifespan robustly results in long-term benefit to a lineage; longer-lived variants may have a reproductive advantage for many generations, but shorter lifespan ultimately confers long-term reproductive advantage through environmental feedback acting on much longer time scales. Numerous model variations produce the same qualitative result, demonstrating insensitivity to detailed assumptions; the key conditions under which self-limited lifespan is favored are spatial extent and locally exhaustible resources. Numerous empirical observations can parsimoniously be explained in terms of long-term selective advantage for intrinsic mortality. Classically anomalous empirical data on natural lifespans and intrinsic mortality, including observations of longer lifespan associated with increased predation, and evidence of programmed death in both unicellular and multicellular organisms, are consistent with specific model predictions. The generic nature of the spatial model conditions under which intrinsic mortality is favored suggests a firm theoretical basis for the idea that evolution can quite generally select for shorter lifespan directly.

q-bio.PE↗