arXiv subjects
Publications and source records attributed to Yang Shu.
We prove that all nondegenerate simplices have the canonical Ramsey property, thereby resolving a central open problem in canonical Euclidean Ramsey theory and providing a canonical counterpart to the celebrated simplex Ramsey theorem of Frankl and Rödl~[JAMS, 1990].
Financial document question answering (QA) demands complex multi-step numerical reasoning over heterogeneous evidence--structured tables, textual narratives, and footnotes--scattered across corporate filings. Existing retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) approaches adopt a single-pass retrieve-then-generate paradigm that struggles with the compositional reasoning chains prevalent in financial analysis. We propose FinAgent-RAG, an agentic RAG framework that orchestrates iterative retrieval-reasoning loops with self-verification, specifically engineered for the precision requirements of financial numerical reasoning. The framework integrates three domain-specific innovations: (1) a Contrastive Financial Retriever trained with hard negative mining to distinguish semantically similar but numerically distinct financial passages, (2) a Program-of-Thought reasoning module that generates executable Python code for precise arithmetic rather than relying on error-prone LLM-based mental computation, and (3) an Adaptive Strategy Router that dynamically allocates computational resources based on question complexity, reducing API costs by 41.3% on FinQA while preserving accuracy. Extensive experiments on three benchmark datasets--FinQA, ConvFinQA, and TAT-QA--demonstrate that FinAgent-RAG achieves 76.81%, 78.46%, and 74.96% execution accuracy respectively, outperforming the strongest baseline by 5.62--9.32 percentage points. Ablation studies, cross-backbone evaluation with four LLMs, and deployment cost analysis confirm the framework's robustness and practical viability for financial institutions.
Time series anomaly detection plays a crucial role in a wide range of real-world applications. Reconstruction-based methods have become the mainstream paradigm, but they suffer from over-generalization and under-generalization problems, which are challenging to balance. To address this, we introduce multi-scale clustering to enhance reconstruction-based methods. At the representation level, we integrate the cluster center representations of normal patterns to constrain the model to target representative normal patterns for reconstruction, preventing dominance of powerful capacity and representation capability. At the anomaly criterion level, we derive anomaly confidence score based on cluster membership probability and combine it with reconstruction error, providing dual criteria for detection. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the cluster center representations and anomaly confidence score depends on the clustering performance. Accordingly, we extract neighborhood-centered representations for multi-view clustering to improve clustering performance. Extensive experiments on multiple real-world datasets from diverse application domains demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance of SCAN.
Causal discovery from time series is critical for many real-world applications, such as tracing the root causes of anomalies. Existing approaches typically rely on dataset-specific optimization, making it difficult to transfer their causal discovery capabilities to new time series governed by diverse causal mechanisms. In this paper, we propose \textbf{PTCD}, a novel \textbf{P}retraining framework for \textbf{T}ime-series \textbf{C}ausal \textbf{D}iscovery, which improves cross-task generalization through context-conditioned modeling and transferable causal augmentation. To model complex temporal causal dependencies, PTCD employs a dual-scale iterative attention mechanism to capture window-level causal relationships, and a Gaussian mixture with a context-level routing mechanism to handle heterogeneous exogenous distributions. To further address distribution shifts across causal graphs, PTCD adopts a pretraining paradigm on synthetic datasets that integrates intervention-based learning and a causal mixup strategy, promoting stable causal discovery and stronger generalization. Extensive experiments on multiple real-world out-of-distribution (OOD) datasets demonstrate that PTCD excels in both causal discovery and root cause identification.
Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems implicitly assume mutual consistency among retrieved documents -- an assumption that frequently fails in practice. We present ConflictRAG, a conflict-aware RAG framework that detects, classifies, and resolves knowledge conflicts prior to answer generation. The framework introduces three contributions: (1) a two-stage conflict detection module combining a lightweight embedding-based MLP classifier with selective LLM refinement, reducing API costs by 62% while maintaining 90.8% detection accuracy; (2) an Entropy-TOPSIS framework for data-driven source credibility assessment, improving selection accuracy by 7.1% over manual heuristics; and (3) a Conflict-Aware RAG Score (CARS) for diagnostic evaluation of conflict-handling capabilities. Experiments on three benchmarks against six baselines demonstrate 88.7% conflict-detection F1 and consistent 5.3--6.1% correctness gains over the strongest conflict-aware baseline, with the pipeline transferring effectively across backbone LLMs.
Time series reasoning demands both the perception of complex dynamics and logical depth. However, existing LLM-based approaches exhibit two limitations: they often treat time series merely as text or images, failing to capture the patterns like trends and seasonalities needed to answer specific questions; and when trained on a mix of simple and complex tasks, simpler objectives often dominate the learning process, hindering the development of deep reasoning capabilities. To address these limitations, we propose the Pattern-Aware Alignment and Balanced Reasoning model (PATRA), introducing a pattern-aware mechanism that extracts trend and seasonality patterns from time series to achieve deep alignment. Furthermore, we design a task-aware balanced reward to harmonize learning across tasks of varying difficulty, incentivizing the generation of coherent Chains of Thought. Extensive experiments show that PATRA outperforms strong baselines across diverse Time Series Question Answering (TSQA) tasks, demonstrating superior cross-modal understanding and reasoning capability.
Achieving high levels of surgical skill through effective training is essential for optimal patient outcomes. Automated, data-driven skill assessment holds significant potential to improve surgical training. While machine learning-based methods are increasingly popular for assessing skills in minimally invasive surgery, their application to open surgery remains limited. We present the results of a dedicated MICCAI challenge designed to benchmark and advance vision-based skill assessment in open surgery. The challenge dataset comprises videos of an open suturing training task recorded with a static GoPro camera in a dry-lab setting, with instrument trajectories available in addition to the primary video modality. The OSS Challenge was hosted over two consecutive years, comprising two and three independent tasks, respectively: (1) classifying skill level into four classes, (2) predicting the full Objective Structured Assessment of Technical Skills across eight categories, and (3) tracking hands and surgical tools. Participants submitted diverse solutions including deep learning-based video models, tracking-driven methods, and hybrid approaches. General-purpose spatiotemporal video models consistently achieved the strongest performance, though conceptually diverse approaches reached competitive levels when well-executed. Predicting fine-grained OSATS scores remains challenging but benefits substantially from increased training data. Keypoint tracking proves difficult given frequent occlusions and out-of-frame instances, limiting current applicability for motion-based skill analysis. This work benchmarks innovative and diverse solutions for surgical skill assessment, highlighting both the promise and current limitations of video-based evaluation in open surgery and identifying critical directions for advancing automated skill assessment toward clinical impact.
Multi-agent large language model (LLM) systems have shown promise for solving complex tasks through agent collaboration. However, existing frameworks assign tasks based on predefined roles without considering whether an agent can accurately assess its own competence boundaries, leading to overconfident execution on tasks beyond its expertise. Inspired by metacognition theory from cognitive science, we propose MetaCogAgent, a multi-agent LLM framework where each agent is equipped with a Metacognitive Self-Assessment Unit that evaluates task-capability alignment before execution. The framework introduces three contributions: (1) a self-assessment mechanism that estimates per-task confidence by combining verbalized uncertainty with historical capability profiles; (2) an adaptive delegation protocol that routes low-confidence tasks to better-suited agents through cross-agent evaluation; and (3) a capability boundary learning module that iteratively refines each agent's competence model via cybernetic feedback. Experiments on our constructed MetaCog-Eval benchmark (700 tasks across 5 cognitive dimensions) demonstrate that MetaCogAgent achieves 82.4% task accuracy -- 8.7% above the best routing baseline -- while using 5% fewer API calls than AutoGen and 34% fewer than ensemble voting. Ablation studies confirm that each metacognitive component contributes to overall system performance.
Large language model (LLM) self-correction -- the ability to detect and fix errors in generated outputs -- remains largely ad hoc, relying on generic prompts such as "please reconsider your answer" without systematic error analysis or convergence guarantees. We propose CyberCorrect, a framework that formalizes LLM self-correction as a closed-loop control system grounded in cybernetic theory. The framework models the LLM generator as the plant and introduces a tri-modal Error Detector (combining self-consistency, verbalized confidence, and logic-chain verification) as the sensor. A type-directed Correction Controller generates targeted repair instructions based on diagnosed error categories, while a Convergence Judge determines iteration termination using stability criteria adapted from control theory. We further introduce three control-theoretic evaluation metrics -- convergence rate, overshoot rate, and oscillation rate -- that capture correction dynamics beyond final accuracy. Experiments on our constructed CyberCorrect-Bench (440 reasoning tasks with annotated error types and correction paths) show that CyberCorrect achieves 79.8% final accuracy, improving upon the best existing self-correction method by 6.2 percentage points, while reducing overshoot (erroneous over-correction) by 41% through its convergence control mechanism.
Time series anomaly detection plays a critical role in many dynamic systems. Despite its importance, previous approaches have primarily relied on unimodal numerical data, overlooking the importance of complementary information from other modalities. In this paper, we propose a novel multimodal time series anomaly detection model (MindTS) that focuses on addressing two key challenges: (1) how to achieve semantically consistent alignment across heterogeneous multimodal data, and (2) how to filter out redundant modality information to enhance cross-modal interaction effectively. To address the first challenge, we propose Fine-grained Time-text Semantic Alignment. It integrates exogenous and endogenous text information through cross-view text fusion and a multimodal alignment mechanism, achieving semantically consistent alignment between time and text modalities. For the second challenge, we introduce Content Condenser Reconstruction, which filters redundant information within the aligned text modality and performs cross-modal reconstruction to enable interaction. Extensive experiments on six real-world multimodal datasets demonstrate that the proposed MindTS achieves competitive or superior results compared to existing methods. The code is available at: https://github.com/decisionintelligence/MindTS.
Most existing Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) use channel independent modeling and focus on capturing and generalizing temporal dependencies, while neglecting the correlations among channels or overlooking the different aspects of correlations. However, these correlations play a vital role in Multivariate time series forecasting. To address this, we propose a CoRrelation-aware Adapter (CoRA), a lightweight plug-and-play method that requires only fine-tuning with TSFMs and is able to capture different types of correlations, so as to improve forecast performance. Specifically, to reduce complexity, we innovatively decompose the correlation matrix into low-rank Time-Varying and Time-Invariant components. For the Time-Varying component, we further design learnable polynomials to learn dynamic correlations by capturing trends or periodic patterns. To learn positive and negative correlations that appear only among some channels, we introduce a novel dual contrastive learning method that identifies correlations through projection layers, regulated by a Heterogeneous-Partial contrastive loss during training, without introducing additional complexity in the inference stage. Extensive experiments on 10 real-world datasets demonstrate that CoRA can improve TSFMs in multivariate forecasting performance.
Existing time series forecasting methods primarily rely on the numerical data itself. However, real-world time series exhibit complex patterns associated with multimodal information, making them difficult to predict with numerical data alone. While several multimodal time series forecasting methods have emerged, they either utilize text with limited supplementary information or focus merely on representation extraction, extracting minimal textual information for forecasting. To unlock the Value of Text, we propose VoT, a method with Event-driven Reasoning and Multi-level Alignment. Event-driven Reasoning combines the rich information in exogenous text with the powerful reasoning capabilities of LLMs for time series forecasting. To guide the LLMs in effective reasoning, we propose the Historical In-context Learning that retrieves and applies historical examples as in-context guidance. To maximize the utilization of text, we propose Multi-level Alignment. At the representation level, we utilize the Endogenous Text Alignment to integrate the endogenous text information with the time series. At the prediction level, we design the Adaptive Frequency Fusion to fuse the frequency components of event-driven prediction and numerical prediction to achieve complementary advantages. Experiments on real-world datasets across 10 domains demonstrate significant improvements over existing methods, validating the effectiveness of our approach in the utilization of text. The code is made available at https://github.com/decisionintelligence/VoT.
Cross-domain generalization is very important in Time Series Forecasting because similar historical information may lead to distinct future trends due to the domain-specific characteristics. Recent works focus on building unimodal time series foundation models and end-to-end multimodal supervised models. Since domain-specific knowledge is often contained in modalities like texts, the former lacks the explicit utilization of them, thus hindering the performance. The latter is tailored for end-to-end scenarios and does not support zero-shot inference for cross-domain scenarios. In this work, we introduce Aurora, a Multimodal Time Series Foundation Model, which supports multimodal inputs and zero-shot inference. Pretrained on Cross-domain Multimodal Time Series Corpus, Aurora can adaptively extract and focus on key domain knowledge contained in corresponding text or image modalities, thus possessing strong cross-domain generalization capability. Through tokenization, encoding, and distillation, Aurora can extract multimodal domain knowledge as guidance and then utilizes a Modality-Guided Multi-head Self-Attention to inject them into the modeling of temporal representations. In the decoding phase, the multimodal representations are used to generate the conditions and prototypes of future tokens, contributing to a novel Prototype-Guided Flow Matching for generative probabilistic forecasting. Comprehensive experiments on 5 well-recognized benchmarks, including TimeMMD, TSFM-Bench, ProbTS, TFB, and EPF, demonstrate the consistent state-of-the-art performance of Aurora on both unimodal and multimodal scenarios.
Pre-trained models exhibit strong generalization to various downstream tasks. However, given the numerous models available in the model hub, identifying the most suitable one by individually fine-tuning is time-consuming. In this paper, we propose \textbf{SwiftTS}, a swift selection framework for time series pre-trained models. To avoid expensive forward propagation through all candidates, SwiftTS adopts a learning-guided approach that leverages historical dataset-model performance pairs across diverse horizons to predict model performance on unseen datasets. It employs a lightweight dual-encoder architecture that embeds time series and candidate models with rich characteristics, computing patchwise compatibility scores between data and model embeddings for efficient selection. To further enhance the generalization across datasets and horizons, we introduce a horizon-adaptive expert composition module that dynamically adjusts expert weights, and the transferable cross-task learning with cross-dataset and cross-horizon task sampling to enhance out-of-distribution (OOD) robustness. Extensive experiments on 14 downstream datasets and 8 pre-trained models demonstrate that SwiftTS achieves state-of-the-art performance in time series pre-trained model selection.
While existing time series foundation models primarily rely on large-scale unimodal pretraining, they lack complementary modalities to enhance time series understanding. Building multimodal foundation models is a natural next step, but it faces key challenges: 1) lack of a unified multimodal pretraining paradigm and large-scale multimodal corpora for time series analysis; 2) how to effectively integrate heterogeneous modalities and enhance model generalization. To address these challenges, we take an early step toward multimodal foundation models for time series analysis. We first propose a multimodal pretraining paradigm that leverages time series with endogenous modalities (derived images and text) and exogenous knowledge (real-world news), providing a comprehensive multi-view perspective for time series analysis. To support this, we develop an automated data construction pipeline to curate MM-TS, the first large-scale multimodal time series dataset spanning six domains, with up to one billion points. Then we propose HORAI, a frequency-enhanced multimodal foundation model. It integrates two core components: the Frequency-enhanced Cross-Modality Encoder and the Time-Frequency Decoder, designed to effectively fuse multimodal features and enhance model generalization across modalities and domains. After pretraining on MM-TS, HORAI achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot performance on time series forecasting and anomaly detection tasks, demonstrating strong generalization.
Time series forecasting is critical for decision-making across dynamic domains such as energy, finance, transportation, and cloud computing. However, real-world time series often exhibit non-stationarity, including temporal distribution shifts and spectral variability, which pose significant challenges for long-term time series forecasting. In this paper, we propose DTAF, a dual-branch framework that addresses non-stationarity in both the temporal and frequency domains. For the temporal domain, the Temporal Stabilizing Fusion (TFS) module employs a non-stationary mix of experts (MOE) filter to disentangle and suppress temporal non-stationary patterns while preserving long-term dependencies. For the frequency domain, the Frequency Wave Modeling (FWM) module applies frequency differencing to dynamically highlight components with significant spectral shifts. By fusing the complementary outputs of TFS and FWM, DTAF generates robust forecasts that adapt to both temporal and frequency domain non-stationarity. Extensive experiments on real-world benchmarks demonstrate that DTAF outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, yielding significant improvements in forecasting accuracy under non-stationary conditions. All codes are available at https://github.com/decisionintelligence/DTAF.
Let $f_r(d,s_1,\ldots,s_r)$ denote the least integer $n$ such that every $n$-point set $P\subseteq\mathbb{R}^d$ admits a partition $P=P_1\cup\cdots\cup P_r$ with the property that for any choice of $s_i$-convex sets $C_i\supseteq P_i$ $(i\in[r])$ one necessarily has $\bigcap_{i=1}^r C_i\neq\emptyset$, where an $s_i$-convex set means a union of $s_i$ convex sets. A recent breakthrough by Alon and Smorodinsky establishes a general upper bound $f_r(d,s_1,\dots,s_r) = O(dr^2\log r \prod_{i=1}^r s_i\cdot \log(\prod_{i=1}^r s_i).$ Specializing to $r=2$ resolves the problem of Kalai from the 1970s. They further singled out two particularly intriguing questions: whether $f_{2}(2,s,s)$ can be improved from $O(s^2\log s)$ to $O(s)$, and whether $f_r(d,s,\ldots,s)\le Poly(r,d,s)$. We answer both in the negative by showing the exponential lower bound $f_{r}(d,s,\ldots,s)> s^{r}$ for any $r\ge 2$, $s\ge 1$ and $d\ge 2r-2$, which matches the upper bound up to a multiplicative $\log{s}$ factor for sufficiently large $s$. Our construction combines a scalloped planar configuration with a direct product of regular $s$-gon on the high-dimensional torus $(\mathbb{S}^1)^{r-2}$. Perhaps surprisingly, if we additionally require that within each block the $s_i$ convex sets are pairwise disjoint, the picture changes markedly. Let $F_r(d,s_1,\ldots,s_r)$ denote this disjoint-union variant of the extremal function. We show: (1) $F_{2}(2,s,s)=O(s\log s)$ by connecting it to a suitable line-separating function in the plane; (2) when $s$ is large, $F_r(d,s,\ldots,s)$ can be bounded by $O_{r,d}(s^{(1-\frac{1}{2^{d}(d+1)})r+1})$ and $O_{d}(r^{3}\log r\cdot s^{2d+3})$, respectively. This builds on a novel connection between the geometric obstruction and hypergraph Turán numbers, in particular, a variant of the Erdős box problem.
While Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have demonstrated remarkable success in Multivariate Time Series Anomaly Detection (MTSAD), however, in real-world industrial scenarios, many time series comprise not only numerical variables such as temperature and flow, but also numerous discrete state variables that describe the system status, such as valve on/off or day of the week. Existing TSFMs often overlook the distinct categorical nature of state variables and their critical role as conditions, typically treating them uniformly with numerical variables. This inappropriate modeling approach prevents the model from fully leveraging state information and even leads to a significant degradation in detection performance after state variables are integrated. To address this critical limitation, this paper proposes a novel STate-aware AdapteR (STAR). STAR is a plug-and-play module designed to enhance the capability of TSFMs in modeling and leveraging state variables during the fine-tuning stage. Specifically, STAR comprisesthree core components: (1) We design an Identity-guided State Encoder, whicheffectively captures the complex categorical semantics of state variables through a learnable State Memory. (2) We propose a Conditional Bottleneck Adapter, which dynamically generates low-rank adaptation parameters conditioned on the current state, thereby flexibly injecting the influence of state variables into the backbone model. (3) We also introduce a Numeral-State Matching module to more effectively detect anomalies inherent to the state variables themselves. Extensive experiments conducted on real-world datasets demonstrate that STAR can improve the performance of existing TSFMs on MTSAD.