arXiv subjects

Yang Weng

Publications and source records attributed to Yang Weng.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

The Powerful Use of AI in the Energy Sector: Intelligent Forecasting

Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques continue to broaden across governmental and public sectors, such as power and energy - which serve as critical infrastructures for most societal operations. However, due to the requirements of reliability, accountability, and explainability, it is risky to directly apply AI-based methods to power systems because society cannot afford cascading failures and large-scale blackouts, which easily cost billions of dollars. To meet society requirements, this paper proposes a methodology to develop, deploy, and evaluate AI systems in the energy sector by: (1) understanding the power system measurements with physics, (2) designing AI algorithms to forecast the need, (3) developing robust and accountable AI methods, and (4) creating reliable measures to evaluate the performance of the AI model. The goal is to provide a high level of confidence to energy utility users. For illustration purposes, the paper uses power system event forecasting (PEF) as an example, which carefully analyzes synchrophasor patterns measured by the Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs). Such a physical understanding leads to a data-driven framework that reduces the dimensionality with physics and forecasts the event with high credibility. Specifically, for dimensionality reduction, machine learning arranges physical information from different dimensions, resulting inefficient information extraction. For event forecasting, the supervised learning model fuses the results of different models to increase the confidence. Finally, comprehensive experiments demonstrate the high accuracy, efficiency, and reliability as compared to other state-of-the-art machine learning methods.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2021

PMU-based Distributed Non-iterative Algorithm for Real-time Voltage Stability Monitoring

The Phasor measurement unit (PMU) measurements are mandatory to monitor the power system's voltage stability margin in an online manner. Monitoring is key to the secure operation of the grid. Traditionally, online monitoring of voltage stability using synchrophasors required a centralized communication architecture, which leads to high investment cost and cyber-security concerns. The increasing importance of cyber-security and low investment cost have recently led to the development of distributed algorithms for online monitoring of the grid that are inherently less prone to malicious attacks. In this work, a novel distributed non-iterative voltage stability index (VSI) is proposed by recasting the power flow equations as circles. The online computations of VSI are simultaneously performed by the processors embedded at each bus in the smart grid with the help of PMUs and communication of voltage phasors between neighboring buses. The distributed nature of the index enables the real-time identification of the critical bus of the system with minimal communication infrastructure. The effectiveness of the proposed distributed index is demonstrated on IEEE test systems and contrasted with existing methods to show the benefits of the proposed method in speed, interpretability, identification of outage location, and low sensitivity to noisy measurements.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2021

Quick Line Outage Identification in Urban Distribution Grids via Smart Meters

The growing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) in distribution grids raises various reliability issues due to DER's uncertain and complex behaviors. With a large-scale DER penetration in distribution grids, traditional outage detection methods, which rely on customers report and smart meters' last gasp signals, will have poor performance, because the renewable generators and storages and the mesh structure in urban distribution grids can continue supplying power after line outages. To address these challenges, we propose a data-driven outage monitoring approach based on the stochastic time series analysis with a theoretical guarantee. Specifically, we prove via power flow analysis that the dependency of time-series voltage measurements exhibits significant statistical changes after line outages. This makes the theory on optimal change-point detection suitable to identify line outages. However, existing change point detection methods require post-outage voltage distribution, which is unknown in distribution systems. Therefore, we design a maximum likelihood estimator to directly learn the distribution parameters from voltage data. We prove that the estimated parameters-based detection also achieves the optimal performance, making it extremely useful for fast distribution grid outage identifications. Furthermore, since smart meters have been widely installed in distribution grids and advanced infrastructure (e.g., PMU) has not widely been available, our approach only requires voltage magnitude for quick outage identification. Simulation results show highly accurate outage identification in eight distribution grids with 14 configurations with and without DERs using smart meter data.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2020

Wide Area Measurement System-based Low Frequency Oscillation Damping Control through Reinforcement Learning

Ensuring the stability of power systems is gaining more attraction today than ever before, due to the rapid growth of uncertainties in load and renewable energy penetration. Lately, wide area measurement system-based centralized controlling techniques started providing a more flexible and robust control to keep the system stable. But, such a modernization of control philosophy faces pressing challenges due to the irregularities in delays of long-distance communication channels and response of equipment to control actions. Therefore, we propose an innovative approach that can revolutionize the control strategy for damping down low frequency oscillations in transmission systems. Proposed method is enriched with a potential of overcoming the challenges of communication delays and other non-linearities in wide area damping control by leveraging the capability of the reinforcement learning technique. Such a technique has a unique characteristic to learn on diverse scenarios and operating conditions by exploring the environment and devising an optimal control action policy by implementing policy gradient method. Our detailed analysis and systematically designed numerical validation prove the feasibility, scalability and interpretability of the carefully modelled low-frequency oscillation damping controller so that stability is ensured even with the uncertainties of load and generation are on the rise.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2019

Power Flow as Intersection of Circles: A new Fixed Point Method

The power flow (PF) problem is a fundamental problem in power system engineering. Many popular solvers face challenges, such as convergence issues. One can try to rewrite the PF problem into a fixed point equation, which can be solved exponentially fast. But, existing methods have their own restrictions, such as the required AC network structure or bus types. To remove these restrictions, we employ the circle geometry per-bus via rectangular coordinate representation to embed our physical knowledge of operation point selection in PV curves. Each iteration of the algorithm consists of finding intersections of circles, which can be computed efficiently with high numerical accuracy. Such analysis also helps in visualizing PV curve to always select the high voltage solution. We compare the performance of our fixed point algorithm with existing state-of-the-art methods, showing that the proposed method can correctly find the solutions when other methods cannot. In addition, we empirically show that the fixed point algorithm is much more robust to bad initialization points than the existing methods.

math.OC↗

arXiv2019

Quantifying Hosting Capacity for Rooftop PV System in LV Distribution Grids

Power systems face increasing challenges on reliable operations due to the widespread distributed generators (DGs), e.g., rooftop PV system in the low voltage (LV) distribution grids. Characterizing the hosting capacity (HC) is vital for assessing the total amount of distributed generations that a grid can hold before upgrading. For analyzing HC, some methods conduct extensive simulations, lacking theoretical guarantees and can time-consuming. Therefore, there are also methods employing optimization over all necessary operation constraints. But, the complexity and inherent non-convexity lead to non-optimal solutions. To solve these problems, this paper provides a constructive model for HC determination. Based on geometrically obtained globally optimal HC, we construct HC solutions sequentially according to realistic constraints, so that we can obtain optimal solution even with non-convex model. For practical adaption, we also consider three-phase unbalance condition and parallel computation to speed-up. We validated our method by extensive numerical results on IEEE standard systems, such as 8-bus and 123-bus radial distribution grids, where the global optimums are obtained and performance illustrations are demonstrated.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2019

Unbalanced Multi-Phase Distribution Grid Topology Estimation and Bus Phase Identification

There is an increasing need for monitoring and controlling uncertainties brought by distributed energy resources in distribution grids. For such goal, accurate multi-phase topology is the basis for correlating measurements in unbalanced distribution networks. Unfortunately, such topology knowledge is often unavailable due to limited investment, especially for \revv{low-voltage} distribution grids. Also, the bus phase labeling information is inaccurate due to human errors or outdated records. For this challenge, this paper utilizes smart meter data for an information-theoretic approach to learn the topology of distribution grids. Specifically, multi-phase unbalanced systems are converted into symmetrical components, namely positive, negative, and zero sequences. Then, this paper proves that the Chow-Liu algorithm finds the topology by utilizing power flow equations and the conditional independence relationships implied by the radial multi-phase structure of distribution grids with the presence of incorrect bus phase labels. At last, by utilizing Carson's equation, this paper proves that the bus phase connection can be correctly identified using voltage measurements. For validation, IEEE systems are simulated using three real data sets. The simulation results demonstrate that the algorithm is highly accurate for finding multi-phase topology even with strong load unbalancing condition and DERs. This ensures close monitoring and controlling DERs in distribution grids.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2019

Input Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification for Improving Volatile Residential Load Forecasting

Load forecasting has long been recognized as an important building block for all utility operational planning efforts. Over the recent years, it has become ever more challenging to make accurate forecasts due to the proliferation of distributed energy resources, despite the abundance of existing load forecasting methods. In this paper, we identify one drawback suffered by most load forecasting methods: neglect to thoroughly address the impact of input errors on load forecasts. As a potential solution, we propose to incorporate input modeling and uncertainty quantification to improve load forecasting performance via a two-stage approach. The proposed two-stage approach has the following merits. (1) It provides input modeling and quantifies the impact of input errors, rather than neglecting or mitigating the impact, a prevalent practice of existing methods. (2) It propagates the impact of input errors into the ultimate point and interval predictions for the target customer's load to improve predictive performance. (3) A variance-based global sensitivity analysis method is further proposed for input-space dimensionality reduction in both stages to enhance the computational efficiency. Numerical experiments show that the proposed two-stage approach outperforms competing load forecasting methods in terms of both point predictive accuracy and coverage ability of the predictive intervals.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2019

Robust Hidden Topology Identification in Distribution Systems

With more distributed energy resources (DERs) connected to distribution grids, better monitoring and control are needed, where identifying the topology accurately is the prerequisite. However, due to frequent re-configurations, operators usually cannot know a complete structure in distribution grids. Luckily, the growing data from smart sensors, restricted by Ohm law, provides the possibility of topology inference. In this paper, we show how line parameters of Ohm equation can be estimated for topology identification even when there are hidden nodes. Specifically, the introduced learning method recursively conducts hidden-node detection and impedance calculation. However, the assumptions on uncorrelated data, availability of phasor measurements, and a balanced system, are not met in practices, causing large errors. To resolve these problems, we employ Cholesky whitening first with a proof for measurement decorrelations. For increasing robustness further, we show how to handle practical scenarios when only measurement magnitudes are available or when the grid is three-phase unbalanced. Numerical performance is verified on multi-size distribution grids with both simulation and real-world data.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2018

PaToPaEM: A Data-Driven Parameter and Topology Joint Estimation Framework for Time Varying System in Distribution Grids

Grid topology and line parameters are essential for grid operation and planning, which may be missing or inaccurate in distribution grids. Existing data-driven approaches for recovering such information usually suffer from ignoring 1) input measurement errors and 2) possible state changes among historical measurements. While using the errors-in-variables (EIV) model and letting the parameter and topology estimation interact with each other (PaToPa) can address input and output measurement error modeling, it only works when all measurements are from a single system state. To solve the two challenges simultaneously, we propose the PaToPaEM framework for joint line parameter and topology estimation with historical measurements from different unknown states. We improve the static framework that only works when measurements are from one single state, by further treating state changes in historical measurements as an unobserved latent variable. We then systematically analyze the new mathematical modeling, decouple the optimization problem, and incorporate the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to recover different hidden states in measurements. Combining these, PaToPaEM framework enables joint topology and line parameter estimation using noisy measurements from multiple system states. It lays a solid foundation for data-driven system identification in distribution grids. Superior numerical results validate the practicability of the PaToPaEM framework.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2018

Fast Distribution Grid Line Outage Identification with $μ$PMU

The growing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) in urban distribution grids raises various reliability issues due to DER's uncertain and complex behaviors. With a large-scale DER penetration, traditional outage detection methods, which rely on customers making phone calls and smart meters' "last gasp" signals, will have limited performance, because the renewable generators can supply powers after line outages and many urban grids are mesh so line outages do not affect power supply. To address these drawbacks, we propose a data-driven outage monitoring approach based on the stochastic time series analysis from micro phasor measurement unit ($μ$PMU). Specifically, we prove via power flow analysis that the dependency of time-series voltage measurements exhibits significant statistical changes after line outages. This makes the theory on optimal change-point detection suitable to identify line outages via $μ$PMUs with fast and accurate sampling. However, existing change point detection methods require post-outage voltage distribution unknown in distribution systems. Therefore, we design a maximum likelihood-based method to directly learn the distribution parameters from $μ$PMU data. We prove that the estimated parameters-based detection still achieves the optimal performance, making it extremely useful for distribution grid outage identifications. Simulation results show highly accurate outage identification in eight distribution grids with 14 configurations with and without DERs using $μ$PMU data.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2018

Urban MV and LV Distribution Grid Topology Estimation via Group Lasso

The increasing penetration of distributed energy resources poses numerous reliability issues to the urban distribution grid. The topology estimation is a critical step to ensure the robustness of distribution grid operation. However, the bus connectivity and grid topology estimation are usually hard in distribution grids. For example, it is technically challenging and costly to monitor the bus connectivity in urban grids, e.g., underground lines. It is also inappropriate to use the radial topology assumption exclusively because the grids of metropolitan cities and regions with dense loads could be with many mesh structures. To resolve these drawbacks, we propose a data-driven topology estimation method for MV and LV distribution grids by only utilizing the historical smart meter measurements. Particularly, a probabilistic graphical model is utilized to capture the statistical dependencies amongst bus voltages. We prove that the bus connectivity and grid topology estimation problems, in radial and mesh structures, can be formulated as a linear regression with a least absolute shrinkage regularization on grouped variables (\textit{group lasso}). Simulations show highly accurate results in eight MV and LV distribution networks at different sizes and 22 topology configurations using PG\&E residential smart meter data.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

Electric Vehicle Charging Station Placement Method for Urban Areas

For accommodating more electric vehicles (EVs) to battle against fossil fuel emission, the problem of charging station placement is inevitable and could be costly if done improperly. Some researches consider a general setup, using conditions such as driving ranges for planning. However, most of the EV growths in the next decades will happen in the urban area, where driving ranges is not the biggest concern. For such a need, we consider several practical aspects of urban systems, such as voltage regulation cost and protection device upgrade resulting from the large integration of EVs. Notably, our diversified objective can reveal the trade-off between different factors in different cities worldwide. To understand the global optimum of large-scale analysis, we add constraint one-by-one to see how to preserve the problem convexity. Our sensitivity analysis before and after convexification shows that our approach is not only universally applicable but also has a small approximation error for prioritizing the most urgent constraint in a specific setup. Finally, numerical results demonstrate the trade-off, the relationship between different factors and the global objective, and the small approximation error. A unique observation in this study shows the importance of incorporating the protection device upgrade in urban system planning on charging stations.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2018

A Feature Selection Method for High Impedance Fault Detection

High impedance fault (HIF) has been a challenging task to detect in distribution networks. On one hand, although several types of HIF models are available for HIF study, they are still not exhibiting satisfactory fault waveforms. On the other hand, utilizing historical data has been a trend recently for using machine learning methods to improve HIF detection. Nonetheless, most proposed methodologies address the HIF issue starting with investigating a limited group of features and can hardly provide a practical and implementable solution. This paper, however, proposes a systematic design of feature extraction, based on an HIF detection and classification method. For example, features are extracted according to when, how long, and what magnitude the fault events create. Complementary power expert information is also integrated into the feature pools. Subsequently, we propose a ranking procedure in the feature pool for balancing the information gain and the complexity to avoid over-fitting. For implementing the framework, we create an HIF detection logic from a practical perspective. Numerical methods show the proposed HIF detector has very high dependability and security performance under multiple fault scenarios comparing with other traditional methods.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2017

VADER: Visualization and Analytics for Distributed Energy Resources

Enabling deep penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) requires comprehensive monitoring and control of the distribution network. Increasing observability beyond the substation and extending it to the edge of the grid is required to achieve this goal. The growing availability of data from measurements from inverters, smart meters, EV chargers, smart thermostats and other devices provides an opportunity to address this problem. Integration of these new data poses many challenges since not all devices are connected to the traditional supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) networks and can be novel types of information, collected at various sampling rates and with potentially missing values. Visualization and analytics for distributed energy resources (VADER) system and workflow is introduced as an approach and platform to fuse these different streams of data from utilities and third parties to enable comprehensive situational awareness, including scenario analysis and system state estimation. The system leverages modern large scale computing platforms, machine learning and data analytics and can be used alongside traditional advanced distribution management system (ADMS) systems to provide improved insights for distribution system management in the presence of DERs.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2017

Mapping Rule Estimation for Power Flow Analysis in Distribution Grids

The increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) calls for new monitoring and operational planning tools to ensure stability and sustainability in distribution grids. One idea is to use existing monitoring tools in transmission grids and some primary distribution grids. However, they usually depend on the knowledge of the system model, e.g., the topology and line parameters, which may be unavailable in primary and secondary distribution grids. Furthermore, a utility usually has limited modeling ability of active controllers for solar panels as they may belong to a third party like residential customers. To solve the modeling problem in traditional power flow analysis, we propose a support vector regression (SVR) approach to reveal the mapping rules between different variables and recover useful variables based on physical understanding and data mining. We illustrate the advantages of using the SVR model over traditional regression method which finds line parameters in distribution grids. Specifically, the SVR model is robust enough to recover the mapping rules while the regression method fails when 1) there are measurement outliers and missing data, 2) there are active controllers, or 3) measurements are only available at some part of a distribution grid. We demonstrate the superior performance of our method through extensive numerical validation on different scales of distribution grids.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2017

PaToPa: A Data-Driven Parameter and Topology Joint Estimation Framework in Distribution Grids

The increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) calls for new planning and operational tools. However, such tools depend on system topology and line parameters, which may be missing or inaccurate in distribution grids. With abundant data, one idea is to use linear regression to find line parameters, based on which topology can be identified. Unfortunately, the linear regression method is accurate only if there is no noise in both the input measurements (e.g., voltage magnitude and phase angle) and output measurements (e.g., active and reactive power). For topology estimation, even with a small error in measurements, the regression-based method is incapable of finding the topology using non-zero line parameters with a proper metric. To model input and output measurement errors simultaneously, we propose the error-in-variables (EIV) model in a maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) framework for joint line parameter and topology estimation. While directly solving the problem is NP-hard, we successfully adapt the problem into a generalized low-rank approximation problem via variable transformation and noise decorrelation. For accurate topology estimation, we let it interact with parameter estimation in a fashion that is similar to expectation-maximization fashion in machine learning. The proposed PaToPa approach does not require a radial network setting and works for mesh networks. We demonstrate the superior performance in accuracy for our method on IEEE test cases with actual feeder data from South California Edison.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2017

A Sparse Linear Model and Significance Test for Individual Consumption Prediction

Accurate prediction of user consumption is a key part not only in understanding consumer flexibility and behavior patterns, but in the design of robust and efficient energy saving programs as well. Existing prediction methods usually have high relative errors that can be larger than 30% and have difficulties accounting for heterogeneity between individual users. In this paper, we propose a method to improve prediction accuracy of individual users by adaptively exploring sparsity in historical data and leveraging predictive relationship between different users. Sparsity is captured by popular least absolute shrinkage and selection estimator, while user selection is formulated as an optimal hypothesis testing problem and solved via a covariance test. Using real world data from PG&E, we provide extensive simulation validation of the proposed method against well-known techniques such as support vector machine, principle component analysis combined with linear regression, and random forest. The results demonstrate that our proposed methods are operationally efficient because of linear nature, and achieve optimal prediction performance.

stat.ML↗