arXiv subjects

Yanqiao Deng

Publications and source records attributed to Yanqiao Deng.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Quantifying real-world energy use and CO2 emissions of electric vehicles via a city-scale bottom-up framework

Although electric vehicles (EVs) are scaling rapidly, city-scale evidence on real-world operational energy use and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from EVs remains limited. Using Shanghai as a case study, this study develops a bottom-up framework covering all EV models registered between July 2022 and December 2024 to quantify model-specific real-world energy intensity, the operational energy mix, and associated CO2 emissions. The results indicate that (1) pronounced and systematic underestimation by test-cycle values: on average, real-world use is 20.8% greater for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and ~55% greater for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), whereas extended-range EVs (EREVs) show the largest gaps, as many models consume 3.75 times more energy than their official data suggest. (2) From 2022-2024, electricity supplies more than 70% of operational energy, and power-sector emissions dominate EV operational CO2, contributing 75.3%, 85.7% and 87.0% in 2022, 2023 and 2024, respectively. (3) BEVs achieve the greatest absolute mitigation under current policies, with 1,834 kilotons (kt) of CO2 in 2035, modest benefits from PHEVs, and strong gains for EREVs under more ambitious policies (up to 2,122 kt of CO2 in 2035). These findings underscore the need to align fleet electrification with grid decarbonization, alleviate congestion, improve charging accessibility, and narrow test-cycle versus on-road performance gaps to fully realize the climate benefits of EVs in megacities.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

City-level energy and emission assessment based on 20+ million electric vehicle registrations in China

China, the world's largest electric vehicle (EV) market, plays a pivotal role in global decarbonization of the transport sector. We present the first high-resolution assessment of EV adoption in 295 cities, utilizing more than 20 million registrations of 586 EV models tracked monthly from 2022 to 2024 and projecting transition pathways to 2035. Real-world data reveal that EVs are 30.9-212.8 megajoules per 100 km more energy efficient than internal combustion vehicles, yet their carbon intensities range from 18.2 to 270.4 gCO2/km among provinces. The limited electrification of hybrids means that gasoline still accounts for 44% of EV energy use. Scenario projections suggest that emissions will peak about 2030 at 21.1-30.9 megatonnes of CO2 and decline by 2035 under continued market transition. The findings establish an empirical foundation for accurate emissions accounting, emphasize the need to reduce regional disparities in adoptability, and offer globally relevant insights for road-transport decarbonization.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Planning future charging infrastructure for private EVs: A city-scale assessment of demand and capacity

This study proposes the first demand-driven, multi-objective planning model for optimizing city-scale capacity allocation of EV charging infrastructure. The model employs a bottom-up approach to estimate charging demand differentiated by vehicle type-battery electric vehicles (BEVs), extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Chongqing, a rapidly expanding EV industry cluster in China with a strong industrial base, supportive policies, and diverse urban morphologies, is selected as the case study. The results show that (1) monthly EV electricity consumption in Chongqing rose from 18.9 gigawatt-hours (GWh) in June 2022 to 57.5 GWh in December 2024, with associated carbon emissions increasing from 9.9 kilotons of carbon dioxide (ktCO2) to 30 ktCO2; (2) 181,622 additional charging piles were installed between 2022 and 2024, with the fastest growth observed in Yubei, reflecting a demand-responsive strategy that prioritizes areas with higher population density, higher income levels, and adequate land availability for pile deployment, rather than broad geographic coverage; and (3) between 2025 and 2030, EV electricity demand is projected to reach 1940 GWh, with the number of charging piles exceeding 1.4 million, and charging demand from EREVs and PHEVs expected to overtake BEVs later in the period. While Chongqing serves as the pilot area, the proposed planning platform is adaptable for application in cities worldwide, enabling cross-regional comparisons under diverse socio-economic, geographic, and policy conditions. Overall, this work offers policymakers a versatile tool to support sustainable, cost-effective EV infrastructure deployment aligned with low-carbon electrification targets in the transportation sector.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Provincial allocation of China's commercial building operational carbon towards carbon neutrality

National carbon peak track and optimized provincial carbon allocations are crucial for mitigating regional inequality within the commercial building sector during China's transition to carbon neutrality. This study proposes a top-down model to evaluate carbon trajectories in operational commercial buildings up to 2060. Through Monte Carlo simulation, scenario analysis is conducted to assess carbon peak values and the corresponding peaking year, thereby optimizing carbon allocation schemes both nationwide and provincially. The results reveal that (1) the nationwide carbon peak for commercial building operations is projected to reach 890 (+- 50) megatons of carbon dioxide (MtCO2) by 2028 (+- 3.7 years) in the case of the business-as-usual scenario, with a 7.87% probability of achieving the carbon peak under the decarbonization scenario. (2) Significant disparities will exist among provinces, with Shandong's carbon peak projected at 69.6 (+- 4.0) MtCO2 by 2029, approximately 11 times higher than Ningxia's peak of 6.0 (+- 0.3) MtCO2 by 2027. (3) Guided by the principle of maximizing the emission reduction potential, the optimal provincial allocation scheme reveals the top three provinces requiring the most significant reductions in the commercial sector: Xinjiang (5.6 MtCO2), Shandong (4.8 MtCO2), and Henan (4.7 MtCO2). Overall, this study offers optimized provincial carbon allocation strategies within the commercial building sector in China via dynamic scenario simulations, with the goal of hitting the carbon peak target and progressing toward a low-carbon future for the building sector.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

China's plug-in hybrid electric vehicle transition: an operational carbon perspective

Assessing the emissions of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) operations is crucial for accelerating the carbon-neutral transition in the passenger car sector. This study is the first to adopt a bottom-up model to measure the real-world energy use and carbon dioxide emissions of China's top twenty selling PHEV models across different regions from 2020 to 2022. The results indicate that (1) the actual electricity intensity of the best-selling PHEV models (20.2-38.2 kWh/100 km) was 30-40% higher than the New European Driving Cycle values, and the actual gasoline intensity (4.7-23.5 L/100 km) was 3-6 times greater than the New European Driving Cycle values. (2) The overall energy use of the best-selling models varied among different regions, and the energy use from 2020 to 2022 in Southern China was double that Northern China and the Yangtze River Middle Reach. (3) The top-selling models emitted 4.7 megatons of carbon dioxide nationwide from 2020 to 2022, with 1.9 megatons released by electricity consumption and 2.8 megatons released by gasoline combustion. Furthermore, targeted policy implications for expediting the carbon-neutral transition within the passenger car sector are proposed. In essence, this study explores and compares benchmark data at both the national and regional levels, along with performance metrics associated with PHEV operations. The main objective is to aid nationwide decarbonization efforts, focusing on carbon reduction and promoting the rapid transition of road transportation toward a net-zero carbon future.

econ.GN↗