arXiv subjects

Yanqing Yang

Publications and source records attributed to Yanqing Yang.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Epistemic Traps: Rational Misalignment Driven by Model Misspecification

The rapid deployment of Large Language Models and AI agents across critical societal and technical domains is hindered by persistent behavioral pathologies including sycophancy, hallucination, and strategic deception that resist mitigation via reinforcement learning. Current safety paradigms treat these failures as transient training artifacts, lacking a unified theoretical framework to explain their emergence and stability. Here we show that these misalignments are not errors, but mathematically rationalizable behaviors arising from model misspecification. By adapting Berk-Nash Rationalizability from theoretical economics to artificial intelligence, we derive a rigorous framework that models the agent as optimizing against a flawed subjective world model. We demonstrate that widely observed failures are structural necessities: unsafe behaviors emerge as either a stable misaligned equilibrium or oscillatory cycles depending on reward scheme, while strategic deception persists as a "locked-in" equilibrium or through epistemic indeterminacy robust to objective risks. We validate these theoretical predictions through behavioral experiments on six state-of-the-art model families, generating phase diagrams that precisely map the topological boundaries of safe behavior. Our findings reveal that safety is a discrete phase determined by the agent's epistemic priors rather than a continuous function of reward magnitude. This establishes Subjective Model Engineering, defined as the design of an agent's internal belief structure, as a necessary condition for robust alignment, marking a paradigm shift from manipulating environmental rewards to shaping the agent's interpretation of reality.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Sino-US S and T Frictions and Transnational Knowledge Flows: Evidence from machine learning and cross-national patent data

This paper identifies the impact of China-U.S. science and technology (S&T) friction on knowledge flows in different fields, using data on invention patent applications from China, the U.S., Europe, and the World Patent Office (WPO) along with machine-learning-based econometric methods. The empirical results find that the negative impacts of China-U.S. S&T frictions on cross-border knowledge flows are confined to a limited number of technology areas during the period of our observation. This paper further explores the characteristics of the negatively impacted technology areas, and the empirical results show that technology areas that rely more on basic scientific research, where the distribution of U.S. scientific and technological strength is more concentrated, and where the gap between U.S. and Chinese science and technology is narrower, are more likely to be the victims of the Sino-U.S. S&T friction.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

Deep Learning for Multi-Country GDP Prediction: A Study of Model Performance and Data Impact

GDP is a vital measure of a country's economic health, reflecting the total value of goods and services produced. Forecasting GDP growth is essential for economic planning, as it helps governments, businesses, and investors anticipate trends, make informed decisions, and promote stability and growth. While most previous works focus on the prediction of the GDP growth rate for a single country or by machine learning methods, in this paper we give a comprehensive study on the GDP growth forecasting in the multi-country scenario by deep learning algorithms. For the prediction of the GDP growth where only GDP growth values are used, linear regression is generally better than deep learning algorithms. However, for the regression and the prediction of the GDP growth with selected economic indicators, deep learning algorithms could be superior to linear regression. We also investigate the influence of the novel data -- the light intensity data on the prediction of the GDP growth, and numerical experiments indicate that they do not necessarily improve the prediction performance. Code is provided at https://github.com/Sariel2018/Multi-Country-GDP-Prediction.git.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

Optimal Trade and Industrial Policies in the Global Economy: A Deep Learning Framework

We propose a deep learning framework, DL-opt, designed to efficiently solve for optimal policies in quantifiable general equilibrium trade models. DL-opt integrates (i) a nested fixed point (NFXP) formulation of the optimization problem, (ii) automatic implicit differentiation to enhance gradient descent for solving unilateral optimal policies, and (iii) a best-response dynamics approach for finding Nash equilibria. Utilizing DL-opt, we solve for non-cooperative tariffs and industrial subsidies across 7 economies and 44 sectors, incorporating sectoral external economies of scale. Our quantitative analysis reveals significant sectoral heterogeneity in Nash policies: Nash industrial subsidies increase with scale elasticities, whereas Nash tariffs decrease with trade elasticities. Moreover, we show that global dual competition, involving both tariffs and industrial subsidies, results in lower tariffs and higher welfare outcomes compared to a global tariff war. These findings highlight the importance of considering sectoral heterogeneity and policy combinations in understanding global economic competition.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

Principled Understanding of Generalization for Generative Transformer Models in Arithmetic Reasoning Tasks

Transformer-based models excel in various tasks but their generalization capabilities, especially in arithmetic reasoning, remain incompletely understood. Arithmetic tasks provide a controlled framework to explore these capabilities, yet performance anomalies persist, such as inconsistent effectiveness in multiplication and erratic generalization in modular addition (e.g., modulo 100 vs. 101). This paper develops a unified theoretical framework for understanding the generalization behaviors of transformers in arithmetic tasks, focusing on length generalization. Through detailed analysis of addition, multiplication, and modular operations, we reveal that translation invariance in addition aligns with relative positional encoding for robust generalization, while base mismatch in modular operations disrupts this alignment. Experiments across GPT-family models validate our framework, confirming its ability to predict generalization behaviors. Our work highlights the importance of task structure and training data distribution for achieving data-efficient and structure-aware training, providing a systematic approach to understanding of length generalization in transformers.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Navigating the Data Trading Crossroads: An Interdisciplinary Survey

Data has been increasingly recognized as a critical factor in the future economy. However, constructing an efficient data trading market faces challenges such as privacy breaches, data monopolies, and misuse. Despite numerous studies proposing algorithms to protect privacy and methods for pricing data, a comprehensive understanding of these issues and systemic solutions remain elusive. This paper provides an extensive review and evaluation of data trading research, aiming to identify existing problems, research gaps, and propose potential solutions. We categorize the challenges into three main areas: Compliance Challenges, Collateral Consequences, and Costly Transactions (the "3C problems"), all stemming from ambiguity in data rights. Through a quantitative analysis of the literature, we observe a paradigm shift from isolated solutions to integrated approaches. Addressing the unresolved issue of right ambiguity, we introduce the novel concept of "data usufruct," which allows individuals to use and benefit from data they do not own. This concept helps reframe data as a more conventional factor of production and aligns it with established economic theories, paving the way for a comprehensive framework of research theories, technical tools, and platforms. We hope this survey provides valuable insights and guidance for researchers, practitioners, and policymakers, thereby contributing to digital economy advancements.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2024

Machine Learning for Economic Forecasting: An Application to China's GDP Growth

This paper aims to explore the application of machine learning in forecasting Chinese macroeconomic variables. Specifically, it employs various machine learning models to predict the quarterly real GDP growth of China, and analyzes the factors contributing to the performance differences among these models. Our findings indicate that the average forecast errors of machine learning models are generally lower than those of traditional econometric models or expert forecasts, particularly in periods of economic stability. However, during certain inflection points, although machine learning models still outperform traditional econometric models, expert forecasts may exhibit greater accuracy in some instances due to experts' more comprehensive understanding of the macroeconomic environment and real-time economic variables. In addition to macroeconomic forecasting, this paper employs interpretable machine learning methods to identify the key attributive variables from different machine learning models, aiming to enhance the understanding and evaluation of their contributions to macroeconomic fluctuations.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2023

Large Language Models at Work in China's Labor Market

This paper explores the potential impacts of large language models (LLMs) on the Chinese labor market. We analyze occupational exposure to LLM capabilities by incorporating human expertise and LLM classifications, following the methodology of Eloundou et al. (2023). The results indicate a positive correlation between occupational exposure and both wage levels and experience premiums at the occupation level. This suggests that higher-paying and experience-intensive jobs may face greater exposure risks from LLM-powered software. We then aggregate occupational exposure at the industry level to obtain industrial exposure scores. Both occupational and industrial exposure scores align with expert assessments. Our empirical analysis also demonstrates a distinct impact of LLMs, which deviates from the routinization hypothesis. We present a stylized theoretical framework to better understand this deviation from previous digital technologies. By incorporating entropy-based information theory into the task-based framework, we propose an AI learning theory that reveals a different pattern of LLM impacts compared to the routinization hypothesis.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2023

It Ain't That Bad: Understanding the Mysterious Performance Drop in OOD Generalization for Generative Transformer Models

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable proficiency on solving diverse problems. However, their generalization ability is not always satisfying and the generalization problem is common for generative transformer models in general. Researchers take basic mathematical tasks like n-digit addition or multiplication as important perspectives for investigating their generalization behaviors. It is observed that when training models on n-digit operations (e.g., additions) in which both input operands are n-digit in length, models generalize successfully on unseen n-digit inputs (in-distribution (ID) generalization), but fail miserably on longer, unseen cases (out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization). We bring this unexplained performance drop into attention and ask whether there is systematic OOD generalization. Towards understanding LLMs, we train various smaller language models which may share the same underlying mechanism. We discover that the strong ID generalization stems from structured representations, while behind the unsatisfying OOD performance, the models still exhibit clear learned algebraic structures. Specifically, these models map unseen OOD inputs to outputs with learned equivalence relations in the ID domain, which we call the equivalence generalization. These findings deepen our knowledge regarding the generalizability of generative models including LLMs, and provide insights into potential avenues for improvement.

cs.LG↗