Searcharxiv⌕ Search

arXiv subjects

Yao Xie

Publications and source records attributed to Yao Xie.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources
arXiv2023

Mobile Internet Quality Estimation using Self-Tuning Kernel Regression

Modeling and estimation for spatial data are ubiquitous in real life, frequently appearing in weather forecasting, pollution detection, and agriculture. Spatial data analysis often involves processing datasets of enormous scale. In this work, we focus on large-scale internet-quality open datasets from Ookla. We look into estimating mobile (cellular) internet quality at the scale of a state in the United States. In particular, we aim to conduct estimation based on highly {\it imbalanced} data: Most of the samples are concentrated in limited areas, while very few are available in the rest, posing significant challenges to modeling efforts. We propose a new adaptive kernel regression approach that employs self-tuning kernels to alleviate the adverse effects of data imbalance in this problem. Through comparative experimentation on two distinct mobile network measurement datasets, we demonstrate that the proposed self-tuning kernel regression method produces more accurate predictions, with the potential to be applied in other applications.

stat.AP↗
arXiv2023

$e^{\text{RPCA}}$: Robust Principal Component Analysis for Exponential Family Distributions

Robust Principal Component Analysis (RPCA) is a widely used method for recovering low-rank structure from data matrices corrupted by significant and sparse outliers. These corruptions may arise from occlusions, malicious tampering, or other causes for anomalies, and the joint identification of such corruptions with low-rank background is critical for process monitoring and diagnosis. However, existing RPCA methods and their extensions largely do not account for the underlying probabilistic distribution for the data matrices, which in many applications are known and can be highly non-Gaussian. We thus propose a new method called Robust Principal Component Analysis for Exponential Family distributions ($e^{\text{RPCA}}$), which can perform the desired decomposition into low-rank and sparse matrices when such a distribution falls within the exponential family. We present a novel alternating direction method of multiplier optimization algorithm for efficient $e^{\text{RPCA}}$ decomposition. The effectiveness of $e^{\text{RPCA}}$ is then demonstrated in two applications: the first for steel sheet defect detection, and the second for crime activity monitoring in the Atlanta metropolitan area.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2023

Contextual Stochastic Bilevel Optimization

We introduce contextual stochastic bilevel optimization (CSBO) -- a stochastic bilevel optimization framework with the lower-level problem minimizing an expectation conditioned on some contextual information and the upper-level decision variable. This framework extends classical stochastic bilevel optimization when the lower-level decision maker responds optimally not only to the decision of the upper-level decision maker but also to some side information and when there are multiple or even infinite many followers. It captures important applications such as meta-learning, personalized federated learning, end-to-end learning, and Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization with side information (WDRO-SI). Due to the presence of contextual information, existing single-loop methods for classical stochastic bilevel optimization are unable to converge. To overcome this challenge, we introduce an efficient double-loop gradient method based on the Multilevel Monte-Carlo (MLMC) technique and establish its sample and computational complexities. When specialized to stochastic nonconvex optimization, our method matches existing lower bounds. For meta-learning, the complexity of our method does not depend on the number of tasks. Numerical experiments further validate our theoretical results.

math.OC↗
arXiv2023

Spatio-Temporal Wildfire Prediction using Multi-Modal Data

Due to severe societal and environmental impacts, wildfire prediction using multi-modal sensing data has become a highly sought-after data-analytical tool by various stakeholders (such as state governments and power utility companies) to achieve a more informed understanding of wildfire activities and plan preventive measures. A desirable algorithm should precisely predict fire risk and magnitude for a location in real time. In this paper, we develop a flexible spatio-temporal wildfire prediction framework using multi-modal time series data. We first predict the wildfire risk (the chance of a wildfire event) in real-time, considering the historical events using discrete mutually exciting point process models. Then we further develop a wildfire magnitude prediction set method based on the flexible distribution-free time-series conformal prediction (CP) approach. Theoretically, we prove a risk model parameter recovery guarantee, as well as coverage and set size guarantees for the CP sets. Through extensive real-data experiments with wildfire data in California, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods, as well as their flexibility and scalability in large regions.

stat.AP↗
arXiv2023

Causal Graph Discovery from Self and Mutually Exciting Time Series

We present a generalized linear structural causal model, coupled with a novel data-adaptive linear regularization, to recover causal directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) from time series. By leveraging a recently developed stochastic monotone Variational Inequality (VI) formulation, we cast the causal discovery problem as a general convex optimization. Furthermore, we develop a non-asymptotic recovery guarantee and quantifiable uncertainty by solving a linear program to establish confidence intervals for a wide range of non-linear monotone link functions. We validate our theoretical results and show the competitive performance of our method via extensive numerical experiments. Most importantly, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in recovering highly interpretable causal DAGs over Sepsis Associated Derangements (SADs) while achieving comparable prediction performance to powerful ``black-box'' models such as XGBoost. Thus, the future adoption of our proposed method to conduct continuous surveillance of high-risk patients by clinicians is much more likely.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Crime Hot-Spot Modeling via Topic Modeling and Relative Density Estimation

We present a method to capture groupings of similar calls and determine their relative spatial distribution from a collection of crime record narratives. We first obtain a topic distribution for each narrative, and then propose a nearest neighbors relative density estimation (kNN-RDE) approach to obtain spatial relative densities per topic. Experiments over a large corpus ($n=475,019$) of narrative documents from the Atlanta Police Department demonstrate the viability of our method in capturing geographic hot-spot trends which call dispatchers do not initially pick up on and which go unnoticed due to conflation with elevated event density in general.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

From CNN to Transformer: A Review of Medical Image Segmentation Models

Medical image segmentation is an important step in medical image analysis, especially as a crucial prerequisite for efficient disease diagnosis and treatment. The use of deep learning for image segmentation has become a prevalent trend. The widely adopted approach currently is U-Net and its variants. Additionally, with the remarkable success of pre-trained models in natural language processing tasks, transformer-based models like TransUNet have achieved desirable performance on multiple medical image segmentation datasets. In this paper, we conduct a survey of the most representative four medical image segmentation models in recent years. We theoretically analyze the characteristics of these models and quantitatively evaluate their performance on two benchmark datasets (i.e., Tuberculosis Chest X-rays and ovarian tumors). Finally, we discuss the main challenges and future trends in medical image segmentation. Our work can assist researchers in the related field to quickly establish medical segmentation models tailored to specific regions.

eess.IV↗
arXiv2023

Sequential change-point detection: Computation versus statistical performance

Change-point detection studies the problem of detecting the changes in the underlying distribution of the data stream as soon as possible after the change happens. Modern large-scale, high-dimensional, and complex streaming data call for computationally (memory) efficient sequential change-point detection algorithms that are also statistically powerful. This gives rise to a computation versus statistical power trade-off, an aspect less emphasized in the past in classic literature. This tutorial takes this new perspective and reviews several sequential change-point detection procedures, ranging from classic sequential change-point detection algorithms to more recent non-parametric procedures that consider computation, memory efficiency, and model robustness in the algorithm design. Our survey also contains classic performance analysis, which still provides useful techniques for analyzing new procedures.

math.ST↗
arXiv2023

Sequential Predictive Conformal Inference for Time Series

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the \textit{sequential predictive conformal inference} (\texttt{SPCI}). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of \texttt{SPCI} compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2023

Granger Causal Chain Discovery for Sepsis-Associated Derangements via Continuous-Time Hawkes Processes

Modern health care systems are conducting continuous, automated surveillance of the electronic medical record (EMR) to identify adverse events with increasing frequency; however, many events such as sepsis do not have elucidated prodromes (i.e., event chains) that can be used to identify and intercept the adverse event early in its course. Clinically relevant and interpretable results require a framework that can (i) infer temporal interactions across multiple patient features found in EMR data (e.g., Labs, vital signs, etc.) and (ii) identify patterns that precede and are specific to an impending adverse event (e.g., sepsis). In this work, we propose a linear multivariate Hawkes process model, coupled with ReLU link function, to recover a Granger Causal (GC) graph with both exciting and inhibiting effects. We develop a scalable two-phase gradient-based method to obtain a maximum surrogate-likelihood estimator, which is shown to be effective via extensive numerical simulation. Our method is subsequently extended to a data set of patients admitted to Grady hospital system in Atlanta, GA, USA, where the estimated GC graph identifies several highly interpretable GC chains that precede sepsis. The code is available at \url{https://github.com/SongWei-GT/two-phase-MHP}.

stat.AP↗
arXiv2023

Window-Limited CUSUM for Sequential Change Detection

We study the parametric online changepoint detection problem, where the underlying distribution of the streaming data changes from a known distribution to an alternative that is of a known parametric form but with unknown parameters. We propose a joint detection/estimation scheme, which we call Window-Limited CUSUM, that combines the cumulative sum (CUSUM) test with a sliding window-based consistent estimate of the post-change parameters. We characterize the optimal choice of the window size and show that the Window-Limited CUSUM enjoys first-order asymptotic optimality as average run length approaches infinity under the optimal choice of window length. Compared to existing schemes with similar asymptotic optimality properties, our test can be much faster computed because it can recursively update the CUSUM statistic by employing the estimate of the post-change parameters. A parallel variant is also proposed that facilitates the practical implementation of the test. Numerical simulations corroborate our theoretical findings.

math.ST↗
arXiv2023

Neural Stein critics with staged $L^2$-regularization

Learning to differentiate model distributions from observed data is a fundamental problem in statistics and machine learning, and high-dimensional data remains a challenging setting for such problems. Metrics that quantify the disparity in probability distributions, such as the Stein discrepancy, play an important role in high-dimensional statistical testing. In this paper, we investigate the role of $L^2$ regularization in training a neural network Stein critic so as to distinguish between data sampled from an unknown probability distribution and a nominal model distribution. Making a connection to the Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) theory, we develop a novel staging procedure for the weight of regularization over training time, which leverages the advantages of highly-regularized training at early times. Theoretically, we prove the approximation of the training dynamic by the kernel optimization, namely the ``lazy training'', when the $L^2$ regularization weight is large, and training on $n$ samples converge at a rate of ${O}(n^{-1/2})$ up to a log factor. The result guarantees learning the optimal critic assuming sufficient alignment with the leading eigen-modes of the zero-time NTK. The benefit of the staged $L^2$ regularization is demonstrated on simulated high dimensional data and an application to evaluating generative models of image data.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2023

Generalized generalized linear models: Convex estimation and online bounds

We introduce a new computational framework for estimating parameters in generalized generalized linear models (GGLM), a class of models that extends the popular generalized linear models (GLM) to account for dependencies among observations in spatio-temporal data. The proposed approach uses a monotone operator-based variational inequality method to overcome non-convexity in parameter estimation and provide guarantees for parameter recovery. The results can be applied to GLM and GGLM, focusing on spatio-temporal models. We also present online instance-based bounds using martingale concentrations inequalities. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of the algorithm using numerical simulations and a real data example for wildfire incidents.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2023

A Manifold Two-Sample Test Study: Integral Probability Metric with Neural Networks

Two-sample tests are important areas aiming to determine whether two collections of observations follow the same distribution or not. We propose two-sample tests based on integral probability metric (IPM) for high-dimensional samples supported on a low-dimensional manifold. We characterize the properties of proposed tests with respect to the number of samples $n$ and the structure of the manifold with intrinsic dimension $d$. When an atlas is given, we propose two-step test to identify the difference between general distributions, which achieves the type-II risk in the order of $n^{-1/\max\{d,2\}}$. When an atlas is not given, we propose Hölder IPM test that applies for data distributions with $(s,β)$-Hölder densities, which achieves the type-II risk in the order of $n^{-(s+β)/d}$. To mitigate the heavy computation burden of evaluating the Hölder IPM, we approximate the Hölder function class using neural networks. Based on the approximation theory of neural networks, we show that the neural network IPM test has the type-II risk in the order of $n^{-(s+β)/d}$, which is in the same order of the type-II risk as the Hölder IPM test. Our proposed tests are adaptive to low-dimensional geometric structure because their performance crucially depends on the intrinsic dimension instead of the data dimension.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2023

Causal Structural Learning from Time Series: A Convex Optimization Approach

Structural learning, which aims to learn directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) from observational data, is foundational to causal reasoning and scientific discovery. Recent advancements formulate structural learning into a continuous optimization problem; however, DAG learning remains a highly non-convex problem, and there has not been much work on leveraging well-developed convex optimization techniques for causal structural learning. We fill this gap by proposing a data-adaptive linear approach for causal structural learning from time series data, which can be conveniently cast into a convex optimization problem using a recently developed monotone operator variational inequality (VI) formulation. Furthermore, we establish non-asymptotic recovery guarantee of the VI-based approach and show the superior performance of our proposed method on structure recovery over existing methods via extensive numerical experiments.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Sequential Adversarial Anomaly Detection for One-Class Event Data

We consider the sequential anomaly detection problem in the one-class setting when only the anomalous sequences are available and propose an adversarial sequential detector by solving a minimax problem to find an optimal detector against the worst-case sequences from a generator. The generator captures the dependence in sequential events using the marked point process model. The detector sequentially evaluates the likelihood of a test sequence and compares it with a time-varying threshold, also learned from data through the minimax problem. We demonstrate our proposed method's good performance using numerical experiments on simulations and proprietary large-scale credit card fraud datasets. The proposed method can generally apply to detecting anomalous sequences.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2023

Spectral CUSUM for Online Network Structure Change Detection

Detecting abrupt changes in the community structure of a network from noisy observations is a fundamental problem in statistics and machine learning. This paper presents an online change detection algorithm called Spectral-CUSUM to detect unknown network structure changes through a generalized likelihood ratio statistic. We characterize the average run length (ARL) and the expected detection delay (EDD) of the Spectral-CUSUM procedure and prove its asymptotic optimality. Finally, we demonstrate the good performance of the Spectral-CUSUM procedure and compare it with several baseline methods using simulations and real data examples on seismic event detection using sensor network data.

math.ST↗
arXiv2023

Non-stationary spatio-temporal point process modeling for high-resolution COVID-19 data

Most COVID-19 studies commonly report figures of the overall infection at a state- or county-level. This aggregation tends to miss out on fine details of virus propagation. In this paper, we analyze a high-resolution COVID-19 dataset in Cali, Colombia, that records the precise time and location of every confirmed case. We develop a non-stationary spatio-temporal point process equipped with a neural network-based kernel to capture the heterogeneous correlations among COVID-19 cases. The kernel is carefully crafted to enhance expressiveness while maintaining model interpretability. We also incorporate some exogenous influences imposed by city landmarks. Our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art in forecasting new COVID-19 cases with the capability to offer vital insights into the spatio-temporal interaction between individuals concerning the disease spread in a metropolis.

stat.AP↗