arXiv subjects

Yao-Yuan Mao

Publications and source records attributed to Yao-Yuan Mao.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Snowmass2021 Cosmic Frontier White Paper: Cosmological Simulations for Dark Matter Physics

Over the past several decades, unexpected astronomical discoveries have been fueling a new wave of particle model building and are inspiring the next generation of ever-more-sophisticated simulations to reveal the nature of Dark Matter (DM). This coincides with the advent of new observing facilities coming online, including JWST, the Rubin Observatory, the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, and CMB-S4. The time is now to build a novel simulation program to interpret observations so that we can identify novel signatures of DM microphysics across a large dynamic range of length scales and cosmic time. This white paper identifies the key elements that are needed for such a simulation program. We identify areas of growth on both the particle theory side as well as the simulation algorithm and implementation side, so that we can robustly simulate the cosmic evolution of DM for well-motivated models. We recommend that simulations include a fully calibrated and well-tested treatment of baryonic physics, and that outputs should connect with observations in the space of observables. We identify the tools and methods currently available to make predictions and the path forward for building more of these tools. A strong cosmic DM simulation program is key to translating cosmological observations to robust constraints on DM fundamental physics, and provides a connection to lab-based probes of DM physics.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2022

Snowmass2021: Vera C. Rubin Observatory as a Flagship Dark Matter Experiment

Establishing that Vera C. Rubin Observatory is a flagship dark matter experiment is an essential pathway toward understanding the physical nature of dark matter. In the past two decades, wide-field astronomical surveys and terrestrial laboratories have jointly created a phase transition in the ecosystem of dark matter models and probes. Going forward, any robust understanding of dark matter requires astronomical observations, which still provide the only empirical evidence for dark matter to date. We have a unique opportunity right now to create a dark matter experiment with Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). This experiment will be a coordinated effort to perform dark matter research, and provide a large collaborative team of scientists with the necessary organizational and funding supports. This approach leverages existing investments in Rubin. Studies of dark matter with Rubin LSST will also guide the design of, and confirm the results from, other dark matter experiments. Supporting a collaborative team to carry out a dark matter experiment with Rubin LSST is the key to achieving the dark matter science goals that have already been identified as high priority by the high-energy physics and astronomy communities.

hep-ex↗

arXiv2022

Extending the SAGA Survey (xSAGA) I: Satellite Radial Profiles as a Function of Host Galaxy Properties

We present "Extending the Satellites Around Galactic Analogs Survey" (xSAGA), a method for identifying low-$z$ galaxies on the basis of optical imaging, and results on the spatial distributions of xSAGA satellites around host galaxies. Using spectroscopic redshift catalogs from the SAGA Survey as a training data set, we have optimized a convolutional neural network (CNN) to identify $z < 0.03$ galaxies from more distant objects using image cutouts from the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys. From the sample of $> 100,000$ CNN-selected low-$z$ galaxies, we identify $>20,000$ probable satellites located between 36-300 projected kpc from NASA-Sloan Atlas central galaxies in the stellar mass range $9.5 < \log(M_\star/M_\odot) < 11$. We characterize the incompleteness and contamination for CNN-selected samples, and apply corrections in order to estimate the true number of satellites as a function of projected radial distance from their hosts. Satellite richness depends strongly on host stellar mass, such that more massive host galaxies have more satellites, and on host morphology, such that elliptical hosts have more satellites than disky hosts with comparable stellar masses. We also find a strong inverse correlation between satellite richness and the magnitude gap between a host and its brightest satellite. The normalized satellite radial distribution between 36-300 kpc does not depend strongly on host stellar mass, morphology, or magnitude gap. The satellite abundances and radial distributions we measure are in reasonable agreement with predictions from hydrodynamic simulations. Our results deliver unprecedented statistical power for studying satellite galaxy populations, and highlight the promise of using machine learning for extending galaxy samples of wide-area surveys.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2022

Validating Synthetic Galaxy Catalogs for Dark Energy Science in the LSST Era

Large simulation efforts are required to provide synthetic galaxy catalogs for ongoing and upcoming cosmology surveys. These extragalactic catalogs are being used for many diverse purposes covering a wide range of scientific topics. In order to be useful, they must offer realistically complex information about the galaxies they contain. Hence, it is critical to implement a rigorous validation procedure that ensures that the simulated galaxy properties faithfully capture observations and delivers an assessment of the level of realism attained by the catalog. We present here a suite of validation tests that have been developed by the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC). We discuss how the inclusion of each test is driven by the scientific targets for static ground-based dark energy science and by the availability of suitable validation data. The validation criteria that are used to assess the performance of a catalog are flexible and depend on the science goals. We illustrate the utility of this suite by showing examples for the validation of cosmoDC2, the extragalactic catalog recently released for the LSST DESC second Data Challenge.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2021

The LSST-DESC 3x2pt Tomography Optimization Challenge

This paper presents the results of the Rubin Observatory Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) 3x2pt tomography challenge, which served as a first step toward optimizing the tomographic binning strategy for the main DESC analysis. The task of choosing an optimal tomographic binning scheme for a photometric survey is made particularly delicate in the context of a metacalibrated lensing catalogue, as only the photometry from the bands included in the metacalibration process (usually riz and potentially g) can be used in sample definition. The goal of the challenge was to collect and compare bin assignment strategies under various metrics of a standard 3x2pt cosmology analysis in a highly idealized setting to establish a baseline for realistically complex follow-up studies; in this preliminary study, we used two sets of cosmological simulations of galaxy redshifts and photometry under a simple noise model neglecting photometric outliers and variation in observing conditions, and contributed algorithms were provided with a representative and complete training set. We review and evaluate the entries to the challenge, finding that even from this limited photometry information, multiple algorithms can separate tomographic bins reasonably well, reaching figures-of-merit scores close to the attainable maximum. We further find that adding the g band to riz photometry improves metric performance by ~15% and that the optimal bin assignment strategy depends strongly on the science case: which figure-of-merit is to be optimized, and which observables (clustering, lensing, or both) are included.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2021

The Effects of Dark Matter and Baryonic Physics on the Milky Way Subhalo Population in the Presence of the Large Magellanic Cloud

Given recent developments in our understanding of the Large Magellanic Cloud's (LMC) impact on the Milky Way's (MW) dark matter subhalo population, we compare the signatures of dark matter and baryonic physics on subhalos in MW systems with realistic LMC analogs. In particular, we study the effects of self-interacting dark matter (SIDM), warm dark matter (WDM), and the Galactic disk on the peak maximum circular velocity ($V_{\mathrm{peak}}$) function, radial distribution, and spatial distribution of MW and LMC-associated subhalos using cosmological dark matter-only zoom-in simulations of MW+LMC systems. For a fixed abundance of subhalos expected to host dwarf galaxies ($V_{\mathrm{peak}}\gtrsim 20\ \mathrm{km\ s}^{-1}$), SIDM and WDM can produce a similar mass-dependent suppression of the subhalo $V_{\mathrm{peak}}$ function, while disk disruption is mass independent. Subhalos in the inner regions of the MW are preferentially disrupted by both self-interactions and the disk, while suppression in WDM is radially independent. The relative abundance of LMC-associated subhalos is not strongly affected by disk disruption or WDM, but is significantly suppressed in SIDM due to self-interactions with the LMC at early times and with the MW during LMC infall at late times, erasing spatial anisotropy in the MW subhalo population. These results provide avenues to distinguish dark matter and baryonic physics by combining properties of the MW and LMC subhalo populations probed by upcoming observations of satellite galaxies and stellar streams.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2021

UniverseMachine: Predicting Galaxy Star Formation over Seven Decades of Halo Mass with Zoom-in Simulations

We apply the empirical galaxy--halo connection model UniverseMachine to dark matter-only zoom-in simulations of isolated Milky Way (MW)--mass halos along with their parent cosmological simulations. This application extends \textsc{UniverseMachine} predictions into the ultra-faint dwarf galaxy regime ($ 10^{2}\,\mathrm{M_{\odot}} \leqslant M_{\ast} \leqslant 10^{5}\,\mathrm{M_{\odot}}$) and yields a well-resolved stellar mass--halo mass (SMHM) relation over the peak halo mass range $10^8\,\mathrm{M_{\odot}}$ to $10^{15}\,\mathrm{M_{\odot}}$. The extensive dynamic range provided by the zoom-in simulations allows us to assess specific aspects of dwarf galaxy evolution predicted by \textsc{UniverseMachine}. In particular, although UniverseMachine is not constrained for dwarf galaxies with $M_* \lesssim 10^{8}\,\mathrm{M_{\odot}}$, our predicted SMHM relation is consistent with that inferred for MW satellite galaxies at $z=0$ using abundance matching. However, UniverseMachine predicts that nearly all galaxies are actively star forming below $M_{\ast}\sim 10^{7}\,\mathrm{M_{\odot}}$ and that these systems typically form more than half of their stars at $z\lesssim 4$, which is discrepant with the star formation histories of Local Group dwarf galaxies that favor early quenching. This indicates that the current UniverseMachine model does not fully capture galaxy quenching physics at the low-mass end. We highlight specific improvements necessary to incorporate environmental and reionization-driven quenching for dwarf galaxies, and provide a new tool to connect dark matter accretion to star formation over the full dynamic range that hosts galaxies.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2021

The Clustering of DESI-like Luminous Red Galaxies Using Photometric Redshifts

We present measurements of the redshift-dependent clustering of a DESI-like luminous red galaxy (LRG) sample selected from the Legacy Survey imaging dataset, and use the halo occupation distribution (HOD) framework to fit the clustering signal. The photometric LRG sample in this study contains 2.7 million objects over the redshift range of $0.4 < z < 0.9$ over 5655 deg$^2$. We have developed new photometric redshift (photo-$z$) estimates using the Legacy Survey DECam and WISE photometry, with $σ_{\mathrm{NMAD}} = 0.02$ precision for LRGs. We compute the projected correlation function using new methods that maximize signal-to-noise ratio while incorporating redshift uncertainties. We present a novel algorithm for dividing irregular survey geometries into equal-area patches for jackknife resampling. For a five-parameter HOD model fit using the MultiDark halo catalog, we find that there is little evolution in HOD parameters except at the highest redshifts. The inferred large-scale structure bias is largely consistent with constant clustering amplitude over time. In an appendix, we explore limitations of Markov chain Monte Carlo fitting using stochastic likelihood estimates resulting from applying HOD methods to N-body catalogs, and present a new technique for finding best-fit parameters in this situation. Accompanying this paper we have released the Photometric Redshifts for the Legacy Surveys (PRLS) catalog of photo-$z$'s obtained by applying the methods used in this work to the full Legacy Survey Data Release 8 dataset. This catalog provides accurate photometric redshifts for objects with $z < 21$ over more than 16,000 deg$^2$ of sky.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2021

The LSST DESC DC2 Simulated Sky Survey

We describe the simulated sky survey underlying the second data challenge (DC2) carried out in preparation for analysis of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) by the LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (LSST DESC). Significant connections across multiple science domains will be a hallmark of LSST; the DC2 program represents a unique modeling effort that stresses this interconnectivity in a way that has not been attempted before. This effort encompasses a full end-to-end approach: starting from a large N-body simulation, through setting up LSST-like observations including realistic cadences, through image simulations, and finally processing with Rubin's LSST Science Pipelines. This last step ensures that we generate data products resembling those to be delivered by the Rubin Observatory as closely as is currently possible. The simulated DC2 sky survey covers six optical bands in a wide-fast-deep (WFD) area of approximately 300 deg^2 as well as a deep drilling field (DDF) of approximately 1 deg^2. We simulate 5 years of the planned 10-year survey. The DC2 sky survey has multiple purposes. First, the LSST DESC working groups can use the dataset to develop a range of DESC analysis pipelines to prepare for the advent of actual data. Second, it serves as a realistic testbed for the image processing software under development for LSST by the Rubin Observatory. In particular, simulated data provide a controlled way to investigate certain image-level systematic effects. Finally, the DC2 sky survey enables the exploration of new scientific ideas in both static and time-domain cosmology.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2020

The SAGA Survey. II. Building a Statistical Sample of Satellite Systems around Milky Way-like Galaxies

We present the Stage II results from the ongoing Satellites Around Galactic Analogs (SAGA) Survey. Upon completion, the SAGA Survey will spectroscopically identify satellite galaxies brighter than $ M_{r,o} = -12.3 $ around 100 Milky Way (MW) analogs at $ z \sim 0.01 $. In Stage II, we have more than quadrupled the sample size of Stage I, delivering results from 127 satellites around 36 MW analogs with an improved target selection strategy and deep photometric imaging catalogs from the Dark Energy Survey and the Legacy Surveys. We have obtained 25,372 galaxy redshifts, peaking around $ z = 0.2 $. These data significantly increase spectroscopic coverage for very low redshift objects in $ 17 < r_o < 20.75 $ around SAGA hosts, creating a unique data set that places the Local Group in a wider context. The number of confirmed satellites per system ranges from zero to nine, and correlates with host galaxy and brightest satellite luminosities. We find that the number and the luminosities of MW satellites are consistent with being drawn from the same underlying distribution as SAGA systems. The majority of confirmed SAGA satellites are star forming, and the quenched fraction increases as satellite stellar mass and projected radius from the host galaxy decrease. Overall, the satellite quenched fraction among SAGA systems is lower than that in the Local Group. We compare the luminosity functions and radial distributions of SAGA satellites with theoretical predictions based on cold dark matter simulations and an empirical galaxy-halo connection model and find that the results are broadly in agreement.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2020

Concentrations of Dark Haloes Emerge from Their Merger Histories

The concentration parameter is a key characteristic of a dark matter halo that conveniently connects the halo's present-day structure with its assembly history. Using 'Dark Sky', a suite of cosmological $N$-body simulations, we investigate how halo concentration evolves with time and emerges from the mass assembly history. We also explore the origin of the scatter in the relation between concentration and assembly history. We show that the evolution of halo concentration has two primary modes: (1) smooth increase due to pseudo-evolution; and (2) intense responses to physical merger events. Merger events induce lasting and substantial changes in halo structures, and we observe a universal response in the concentration parameter. We argue that merger events are a major contributor to the uncertainty in halo concentration at fixed halo mass and formation time. In fact, even haloes that are typically classified as having quiescent formation histories experience multiple minor mergers. These minor mergers drive small deviations from pseudo-evolution, which cause fluctuations in the concentration parameters and result in effectively irreducible scatter in the relation between concentration and assembly history. Hence, caution should be taken when using present-day halo concentration parameter as a proxy for the halo assembly history, especially if the recent merger history is unknown.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2020

Illuminating Dark Matter Halo Density Profiles Without Subhaloes

Cold dark matter haloes consist of a relatively smooth dark matter component as well as a system of bound subhaloes. It is the prevailing practice to include all halo mass, including mass in subhaloes, in studies of halo density profiles. However, often in observational studies satellites are treated as having their own distinct dark matter density profiles in addition to the profile of the host. This difference makes comparisons between theoretical and observed results difficult. In this work we investigate density profiles of the smooth components of host haloes by excluding mass contained within subhaloes. We find that the density profiles of the smooth halo component (without subhaloes) differs substantially from the conventional halo density profile. Smooth profiles decline more rapidly at large radii and are not well characterised by the standard NFW profile. We also find that concentrations derived from smooth density profiles exhibit less scatter at fixed mass and a weaker mass dependence than standard concentrations. Both smooth and standard halo profiles can be described by a generalised Einasto profile, an Einasto profile with a modified central slope, with smaller residuals than either an NFW or Einasto profile. These results hold for both Milky Way-mass and cluster-mass haloes. This new characterisation of smooth halo profiles can be useful for many analyses, such as lensing and dark matter annihilation, in which the smooth and clumpy components of a halo should be accounted for separately.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2020

Signatures of Velocity-Dependent Dark Matter Self-Interactions in Milky Way-mass Halos

We explore the impact of elastic, anisotropic, velocity-dependent dark matter (DM) self-interactions on the host halo and subhalos of Milky Way (MW)--mass systems. We consider a generic self-interacting dark matter (SIDM) model parameterized by the masses of a light mediator and the DM particle. The ratio of these masses, $w$, sets the velocity scale above which momentum transfer due to DM self-interactions becomes inefficient. We perform high-resolution zoom-in simulations of an MW-mass halo for values of $w$ that span scenarios in which self-interactions either between the host and its subhalos or only within subhalos efficiently transfer momentum, and we study the effects of self-interactions on the host halo and on the abundance, radial distribution, orbital dynamics, and density profiles of subhalos in each case. The abundance and properties of surviving subhalos are consistent with being determined primarily by subhalo--host halo interactions. In particular, subhalos on radial orbits in models with larger values of the cross section at the host halo velocity scale are more susceptible to tidal disruption owing to mass loss from ram pressure stripping caused by self-interactions with the host. This mechanism suppresses the abundance of surviving subhalos relative to collisionless DM simulations, with stronger suppression for larger values of $w$. Thus, probes of subhalo abundance around MW-mass hosts can be used to place upper limits on the self-interaction cross section at velocity scales of $\sim 200\ \rm{km\ s}^{-1}$, and combining these measurements with the orbital properties and internal dynamics of subhalos may break degeneracies among velocity-dependent SIDM models.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2019

Probing the galaxy-halo connection with total satellite luminosity

We demonstrate how the total luminosity in satellite galaxies is a powerful probe of dark matter halos around central galaxies. The method cross-correlates central galaxies in spectroscopic galaxy samples with fainter galaxies detected in photometric surveys. After background subtraction, the excess galaxies around the central galaxies represent faint satellite galaxies within the dark matter halo. Using abundance matching models, we show that the the total galaxy luminosity, L_sat, scales linearly with host halo mass, making L_sat an excellent proxy for M_h. L_sat is also sensitive to the formation time of the halo, as younger halos have more substructure at fixed M_h. We demonstrate that probes of galaxy large-scale environment can break this degeneracy. Although this is an indirect probe of the halo, it can yield a high-S/N measurement for galaxies expected to occupy halos at $<10^{12}$ M_sol, where other methods suffer from larger errors. In this paper we focus on observational and theoretical systematics in the L_sat method. We test the robustness of our method of finding central galaxies and our methods of estimating the number of background galaxies. We implement this method on central galaxies in SDSS data, with satellites identified in faint imaging from the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys. We find excellent agreement between our theoretical predictions and the observational measurements. Finally, we compare our L_sat measurements to weak lensing estimates of M_h for red and blue subsamples. In the stellar mass range where the measurements overlap, we find consistent results, where red galaxies live in larger halos. However, the L_sat approach allows us to probe significantly lower mass galaxies. At these masses, the L_sat values are equivalent. This example shows the potential of L_sat as a probe of dark halos. (Abridged)

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2019

Constraining the scatter in the galaxy-halo connection at Milky Way masses

We develop and implement two new methods for constraining the scatter in the relationship between galaxies and dark matter halos. These new techniques are sensitive to the scatter at low halo masses, making them complementary to previous constraints that are dependent on clustering amplitudes or rich galaxy groups, both of which are only sensitive to more massive halos. In both of our methods, we use a galaxy group finder to locate central galaxies in the SDSS main galaxy sample. Our first technique uses the small-scale cross-correlation of central galaxies with all lower mass galaxies. This quantity is sensitive to the satellite fraction of low-mass galaxies, which is in turn driven by the scatter between halos and galaxies. The second technique uses the kurtosis of the distribution of line-of-sight velocities between central galaxies and neighboring galaxies. This quantity is sensitive to the distribution of halo masses that contain the central galaxies at fixed stellar mass. Theoretical models are constructed using peak halo circular velocity, $V_{\rm peak}$, as our property to connect galaxies to halos. The cross-correlation technique yields a constraint of $σ[ M_\ast|V_{\rm peak}]=0.27\pm 0.05$ dex, corresponding to a scatter in $\log M_\ast$ at fixed $M_h$ of $σ[ M_\ast|M_h]=0.38\pm 0.06$ dex at $M_h=10^{11.8}$ Msun. The kurtosis technique yields $σ[ M_\ast|V_{\rm peak}]=0.30\pm0.03$, corresponding to $σ[ M_\ast|M_h]=0.34\pm 0.04$ at $M_h=10^{12.2}$ Msun. The values of $σ[ M_\ast|M_h]$ are significantly larger than the constraints at higher masses, in agreement with the results of hydrodynamic simulations. This increase is only partly due to the scatter between $V_{\rm peak}$ and $M_h$, and it represents an increase of nearly a factor of two relative to the values inferred from clustering and group studies at high masses.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2019

How to Optimally Constrain Galaxy Assembly Bias: Supplement Projected Correlation Functions with Count-in-cells Statistics

Most models for the connection between galaxies and their haloes ignore the possibility that galaxy properties may be correlated with halo properties other than mass, a phenomenon known as galaxy assembly bias. Yet, it is known that such correlations can lead to systematic errors in the interpretation of survey data. At present, the degree to which galaxy assembly bias may be present in the real Universe, and the best strategies for constraining it remain uncertain. We study the ability of several observables to constrain galaxy assembly bias from redshift survey data using the decorated halo occupation distribution (dHOD), an empirical model of the galaxy--halo connection that incorporates assembly bias. We cover an expansive set of observables, including the projected two-point correlation function $w_{\mathrm{p}}(r_{\mathrm{p}})$, the galaxy--galaxy lensing signal $ΔΣ(r_{\mathrm{p}})$, the void probability function $\mathrm{VPF}(r)$, the distributions of counts-in-cylinders $P(N_{\mathrm{CIC}})$, and counts-in-annuli $P(N_{\mathrm{CIA}})$, and the distribution of the ratio of counts in cylinders of different sizes $P(N_2/N_5)$. We find that despite the frequent use of the combination $w_{\mathrm{p}}(r_{\mathrm{p}})+ΔΣ(r_{\mathrm{p}})$ in interpreting galaxy data, the count statistics, $P(N_{\mathrm{CIC}})$ and $P(N_{\mathrm{CIA}})$, are generally more efficient in constraining galaxy assembly bias when combined with $w_{\mathrm{p}}(r_{\mathrm{p}})$. Constraints based upon $w_{\mathrm{p}}(r_{\mathrm{p}})$ and $ΔΣ(r_{\mathrm{p}})$ share common degeneracy directions in the parameter space, while combinations of $w_{\mathrm{p}}(r_{\mathrm{p}})$ with the count statistics are more complementary. Therefore, we strongly suggest that count statistics should be used to complement the canonical observables in future studies of the galaxy--halo connection.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2019

CosmoDC2: A Synthetic Sky Catalog for Dark Energy Science with LSST

This paper introduces cosmoDC2, a large synthetic galaxy catalog designed to support precision dark energy science with the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). CosmoDC2 is the starting point for the second data challenge (DC2) carried out by the LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (LSST DESC). The catalog is based on a trillion-particle, 4.225 Gpc^3 box cosmological N-body simulation, the `Outer Rim' run. It covers 440 deg^2 of sky area to a redshift of z=3 and is complete to a magnitude depth of 28 in the r-band. Each galaxy is characterized by a multitude of properties including stellar mass, morphology, spectral energy distributions, broadband filter magnitudes, host halo information and weak lensing shear. The size and complexity of cosmoDC2 requires an efficient catalog generation methodology; our approach is based on a new hybrid technique that combines data-driven empirical approaches with semi-analytic galaxy modeling. A wide range of observation-based validation tests has been implemented to ensure that cosmoDC2 enables the science goals of the planned LSST DESC DC2 analyses. This paper also represents the official release of the cosmoDC2 data set, including an efficient reader that facilitates interaction with the data.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2019

Predictably Missing Satellites: Subhalo Abundance in Milky Way-like Halos

On small scales there have been a number of claims of discrepancies between the standard Cold Dark Matter (CDM) model and observations. The 'missing satellites problem' infamously describes the overabundance of subhalos from CDM simulations compared to the number of satellites observed in the Milky Way. A variety of solutions to this discrepancy have been proposed; however, the impact of the specific properties of the Milky Way halo relative to the typical halo of its mass have yet to be explored. Motivated by recent studies that identified ways in which the Milky Way is atypical (e.g., Licquia et al. 2015), we investigate how the properties of dark matter halos with mass comparable to our Galaxy's --- including concentration, spin, shape, and scale factor of the last major merger --- correlate with the subhalo abundance. Using zoom-in simulations of Milky Way-like halos, we build two models of subhalo abundance as functions of host halo properties and conclude that the Milky Way should be expected to have 22%-44% fewer subhalos with low maximum rotation velocities ($V_{\rm max}^{\rm sat} \sim 10$kms$^{-1}$) at the 95% confidence level and up to 72% fewer than average subhalos with high rotation velocities ($V_{\rm max}^{\rm sat} \gtrsim 30$kms$^{-1}$, comparable to the Magellanic Clouds) than would be expected for a typical halo of the Milky Way's mass. Concentration is the most informative single parameter for predicting subhalo abundance. Our results imply that models tuned to explain the missing satellites problem assuming typical subhalo abundances for our Galaxy will be over-correcting.

astro-ph.GA↗