arXiv subjects

Yaqi Duan

Publications and source records attributed to Yaqi Duan.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Tuning-Free Efficient Estimation for Multi-Source Data via Covariance-Aware Shrinkage

Modern statistical learning problems often involve multiple related data sets, where learning efficiency on a target set can be improved by utilizing related source sets, while heterogeneity among the source sets may introduce bias. Existing approaches are limited by suboptimal performance in multi-source settings, insufficient use of covariance information, or the computational burden of tuning procedures. We propose a tuning-free and covariance-aware shrinkage framework that constructs shrinkage directions using covariance information to improve efficiency. We establish finite-sample risk bounds that yield an explicit risk-improving interval for the shrinkage size, making the procedure fully data-driven and tuning-free. When multiple source sets are available, we further propose a novel sequential algorithm that shrinks the estimator toward the sources one at a time according to their estimated risk reduction. The proposed algorithm asymptotically attains the oracle risk under mild conditions and is guaranteed to improve over the single-step shrinkage method in the literature. The framework is further extended to general smooth $M$-estimation problems via a local quadratic approximation. Numerical studies show substantial gains over competing methods, especially when the source data sets are highly heterogeneous.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

On the optimization dynamics of RLVR: Gradient gap and step size thresholds

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR), which uses simple binary feedback to post-train large language models, has found significant empirical success. However, a principled understanding of why it works is lacking. This paper builds a theoretical foundation for RLVR by analyzing its training process at both the full-response (trajectory) and token levels. Central to our analysis is a new quantity called the Gradient Gap, which formalizes the direction of improvement from low-reward to high-reward regions of the response space. We prove that convergence critically depends on aligning the update direction with this Gradient Gap. Moreover, we derive a sharp step-size threshold based on the magnitude of the Gradient Gap: below it, learning converges, whereas above it, performance collapses. Our theory further predicts how the critical step size must scale with response length and the success rate, thereby explaining why practical heuristics such as length normalization improve stability and showing that, with a fixed learning rate, the success rate can stagnate strictly below $100\%$. Importantly, our theory holds flexibly for any policy-gradient algorithm and so characterizes the dynamics of popular approaches such as REINFORCE and GRPO. We validate these predictions through controlled bandit simulations and language model experiments on post-training Qwen2.5-Math-7B with GRPO.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Optimal Semiparametric Dynamic Pricing with Feature Diversity

We study contextual dynamic pricing under a semiparametric demand model in which the purchase probability is $1-F(p-m(\mathbf{x}))$, where $m(\mathbf{x})$ captures mean utility as a function of product features and buyer covariates, and $F$ is an unknown market-noise distribution. Existing methods either incur suboptimal regret or rely on restrictive structural assumptions. We propose a stagewise greedy pricing algorithm that iteratively refines the estimate of $F$ via local polynomial regression while pricing greedily with current estimates. By exploiting feature diversity, the algorithm reuses endogenous samples collected during exploitation for nonparametric estimation, avoiding costly global random exploration used in prior work. We establish a general regret bound that applies to any estimator $\hat m$ of the utility function, and derive explicit rates for linear, nonparametric additive, and sparse linear classes of $m$. For the linear class, our regret scales as $T^{\max\{1/2,\,3/(2β+1)\}}$, where $β$ is the smoothness of $F$ and $T$ is the time horizon. This improves the best known rates for semiparametric contextual pricing and achieves the parametric $\sqrt{T}$ rate when $β\ge 5/2$. We further prove a matching lower bound, showing the optimality of our rate, and present numerical experiments that corroborate the theory and demonstrate the practical advantages of iterative refinement.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Ask, Clarify, Optimize: Human-LLM Agent Collaboration for Smarter Inventory Control

Inventory management remains a challenge for many small and medium-sized businesses that lack the expertise to deploy advanced optimization methods. This paper investigates whether Large Language Models (LLMs) can help bridge this gap. We show that employing LLMs as direct, end-to-end solvers incurs a significant "hallucination tax": a performance gap arising from the model's inability to perform grounded stochastic reasoning. To address this, we propose a hybrid agentic framework that strictly decouples semantic reasoning from mathematical calculation. In this architecture, the LLM functions as an intelligent interface, eliciting parameters from natural language and interpreting results while automatically calling rigorous algorithms to build the optimization engine. To evaluate this interactive system against the ambiguity and inconsistency of real-world managerial dialogue, we introduce the Human Imitator, a fine-tuned "digital twin" of a boundedly rational manager that enables scalable, reproducible stress-testing. Our empirical analysis reveals that the hybrid agentic framework reduces total inventory costs by 32.1% relative to an interactive baseline using GPT-4o as an end-to-end solver. Moreover, we find that providing perfect ground-truth information alone is insufficient to improve GPT-4o's performance, confirming that the bottleneck is fundamentally computational rather than informational. Our results position LLMs not as replacements for operations research, but as natural-language interfaces that make rigorous, solver-based policies accessible to non-experts.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Don't Waste Mistakes: Leveraging Negative RL-Groups via Confidence Reweighting

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has become a standard recipe for improving large language models (LLMs) on reasoning tasks, with Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) widely used in practice. Yet GRPO wastes substantial compute on negative groups: groups in which no sampled response is correct yield zero advantage and thus no gradient. We ask whether negative groups can be leveraged without extra supervision. Starting from a maximum-likelihood (MLE) objective in reward modeling, we show that the MLE gradient is equivalent to a policy gradient for a modified value function. This value function adds a confidence-weighted penalty on incorrect responses, imposing larger penalties on more confident mistakes. We refer to this as \textbf{L}ikelihood \textbf{E}stimation with \textbf{N}egative \textbf{S}amples (\textbf{LENS}). LENS modifies GRPO to assign non-zero, confidence-dependent rewards to incorrect generations, making negative groups informative and converting previously wasted samples into useful gradient updates. On the MATH benchmark with Llama-3.1-8B and Qwen-2.5-3B, the proposed variant consistently outperforms GRPO baseline, with significant gains on harder items. These results demonstrate a principled and practical way to "rescue" negative groups, improving efficiency and performance in RLVR.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

PILAF: Optimal Human Preference Sampling for Reward Modeling

As large language models increasingly drive real-world applications, aligning them with human values becomes paramount. Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) has emerged as a key technique, translating preference data into reward models when oracle human values remain inaccessible. In practice, RLHF mostly relies on approximate reward models, which may not consistently guide the policy toward maximizing the underlying human values. We propose Policy-Interpolated Learning for Aligned Feedback (PILAF), a novel response sampling strategy for preference labeling that explicitly aligns preference learning with maximizing the underlying oracle reward. PILAF is theoretically grounded, demonstrating optimality from both an optimization and a statistical perspective. The method is straightforward to implement and demonstrates strong performance in iterative and online RLHF settings where feedback curation is critical.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Localized exploration in contextual dynamic pricing achieves dimension-free regret

We study the problem of contextual dynamic pricing with a linear demand model. We propose a novel localized exploration-then-commit (LetC) algorithm which starts with a pure exploration stage, followed by a refinement stage that explores near the learned optimal pricing policy, and finally enters a pure exploitation stage. The algorithm is shown to achieve a minimax optimal, dimension-free regret bound when the time horizon exceeds a polynomial of the covariate dimension. Furthermore, we provide a general theoretical framework that encompasses the entire time spectrum, demonstrating how to balance exploration and exploitation when the horizon is limited. The analysis is powered by a novel critical inequality that depicts the exploration-exploitation trade-off in dynamic pricing, mirroring its existing counterpart for the bias-variance trade-off in regularized regression. Our theoretical results are validated by extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world data.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Taming "data-hungry" reinforcement learning? Stability in continuous state-action spaces

We introduce a novel framework for analyzing reinforcement learning (RL) in continuous state-action spaces, and use it to prove fast rates of convergence in both off-line and on-line settings. Our analysis highlights two key stability properties, relating to how changes in value functions and/or policies affect the Bellman operator and occupation measures. We argue that these properties are satisfied in many continuous state-action Markov decision processes, and demonstrate how they arise naturally when using linear function approximation methods. Our analysis offers fresh perspectives on the roles of pessimism and optimism in off-line and on-line RL, and highlights the connection between off-line RL and transfer learning.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Adaptive and Robust Multi-Task Learning

We study the multi-task learning problem that aims to simultaneously analyze multiple datasets collected from different sources and learn one model for each of them. We propose a family of adaptive methods that automatically utilize possible similarities among those tasks while carefully handling their differences. We derive sharp statistical guarantees for the methods and prove their robustness against outlier tasks. Numerical experiments on synthetic and real datasets demonstrate the efficacy of our new methods.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Learning Good State and Action Representations via Tensor Decomposition

The transition kernel of a continuous-state-action Markov decision process (MDP) admits a natural tensor structure. This paper proposes a tensor-inspired unsupervised learning method to identify meaningful low-dimensional state and action representations from empirical trajectories. The method exploits the MDP's tensor structure by kernelization, importance sampling and low-Tucker-rank approximation. This method can be further used to cluster states and actions respectively and find the best discrete MDP abstraction. We provide sharp statistical error bounds for tensor concentration and the preservation of diffusion distance after embedding. We further prove that the learned state/action abstractions provide accurate approximations to latent block structures if they exist, enabling function approximation in downstream tasks such as policy evaluation.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

Policy evaluation from a single path: Multi-step methods, mixing and mis-specification

We study non-parametric estimation of the value function of an infinite-horizon $γ$-discounted Markov reward process (MRP) using observations from a single trajectory. We provide non-asymptotic guarantees for a general family of kernel-based multi-step temporal difference (TD) estimates, including canonical $K$-step look-ahead TD for $K = 1, 2, \ldots$ and the TD$(λ)$ family for $λ\in [0,1)$ as special cases. Our bounds capture its dependence on Bellman fluctuations, mixing time of the Markov chain, any mis-specification in the model, as well as the choice of weight function defining the estimator itself, and reveal some delicate interactions between mixing time and model mis-specification. For a given TD method applied to a well-specified model, its statistical error under trajectory data is similar to that of i.i.d. sample transition pairs, whereas under mis-specification, temporal dependence in data inflates the statistical error. However, any such deterioration can be mitigated by increased look-ahead. We complement our upper bounds by proving minimax lower bounds that establish optimality of TD-based methods with appropriately chosen look-ahead and weighting, and reveal some fundamental differences between value function estimation and ordinary non-parametric regression.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

PU-Flow: a Point Cloud Upsampling Network with Normalizing Flows

Point cloud upsampling aims to generate dense point clouds from given sparse ones, which is a challenging task due to the irregular and unordered nature of point sets. To address this issue, we present a novel deep learning-based model, called PU-Flow, which incorporates normalizing flows and weight prediction techniques to produce dense points uniformly distributed on the underlying surface. Specifically, we exploit the invertible characteristics of normalizing flows to transform points between Euclidean and latent spaces and formulate the upsampling process as ensemble of neighbouring points in a latent space, where the ensemble weights are adaptively learned from local geometric context. Extensive experiments show that our method is competitive and, in most test cases, it outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of reconstruction quality, proximity-to-surface accuracy, and computation efficiency. The source code will be publicly available at https://github.com/unknownue/pu-flow.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2022

Bootstrapping Fitted Q-Evaluation for Off-Policy Inference

Bootstrapping provides a flexible and effective approach for assessing the quality of batch reinforcement learning, yet its theoretical property is less understood. In this paper, we study the use of bootstrapping in off-policy evaluation (OPE), and in particular, we focus on the fitted Q-evaluation (FQE) that is known to be minimax-optimal in the tabular and linear-model cases. We propose a bootstrapping FQE method for inferring the distribution of the policy evaluation error and show that this method is asymptotically efficient and distributionally consistent for off-policy statistical inference. To overcome the computation limit of bootstrapping, we further adapt a subsampling procedure that improves the runtime by an order of magnitude. We numerically evaluate the bootrapping method in classical RL environments for confidence interval estimation, estimating the variance of off-policy evaluator, and estimating the correlation between multiple off-policy evaluators.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

Near-optimal Offline Reinforcement Learning with Linear Representation: Leveraging Variance Information with Pessimism

Offline reinforcement learning, which seeks to utilize offline/historical data to optimize sequential decision-making strategies, has gained surging prominence in recent studies. Due to the advantage that appropriate function approximators can help mitigate the sample complexity burden in modern reinforcement learning problems, existing endeavors usually enforce powerful function representation models (e.g. neural networks) to learn the optimal policies. However, a precise understanding of the statistical limits with function representations, remains elusive, even when such a representation is linear. Towards this goal, we study the statistical limits of offline reinforcement learning with linear model representations. To derive the tight offline learning bound, we design the variance-aware pessimistic value iteration (VAPVI), which adopts the conditional variance information of the value function for time-inhomogeneous episodic linear Markov decision processes (MDPs). VAPVI leverages estimated variances of the value functions to reweight the Bellman residuals in the least-square pessimistic value iteration and provides improved offline learning bounds over the best-known existing results (whereas the Bellman residuals are equally weighted by design). More importantly, our learning bounds are expressed in terms of system quantities, which provide natural instance-dependent characterizations that previous results are short of. We hope our results draw a clearer picture of what offline learning should look like when linear representations are provided.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Optimal policy evaluation using kernel-based temporal difference methods

We study methods based on reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces for estimating the value function of an infinite-horizon discounted Markov reward process (MRP). We study a regularized form of the kernel least-squares temporal difference (LSTD) estimate; in the population limit of infinite data, it corresponds to the fixed point of a projected Bellman operator defined by the associated reproducing kernel Hilbert space. The estimator itself is obtained by computing the projected fixed point induced by a regularized version of the empirical operator; due to the underlying kernel structure, this reduces to solving a linear system involving kernel matrices. We analyze the error of this estimate in the $L^2(μ)$-norm, where $μ$ denotes the stationary distribution of the underlying Markov chain. Our analysis imposes no assumptions on the transition operator of the Markov chain, but rather only conditions on the reward function and population-level kernel LSTD solutions. We use empirical process theory techniques to derive a non-asymptotic upper bound on the error with explicit dependence on the eigenvalues of the associated kernel operator, as well as the instance-dependent variance of the Bellman residual error. In addition, we prove minimax lower bounds over sub-classes of MRPs, which shows that our rate is optimal in terms of the sample size $n$ and the effective horizon $H = (1 - γ)^{-1}$. Whereas existing worst-case theory predicts cubic scaling ($H^3$) in the effective horizon, our theory reveals that there is in fact a much wider range of scalings, depending on the kernel, the stationary distribution, and the variance of the Bellman residual error. Notably, it is only parametric and near-parametric problems that can ever achieve the worst-case cubic scaling.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Risk Bounds and Rademacher Complexity in Batch Reinforcement Learning

This paper considers batch Reinforcement Learning (RL) with general value function approximation. Our study investigates the minimal assumptions to reliably estimate/minimize Bellman error, and characterizes the generalization performance by (local) Rademacher complexities of general function classes, which makes initial steps in bridging the gap between statistical learning theory and batch RL. Concretely, we view the Bellman error as a surrogate loss for the optimality gap, and prove the followings: (1) In double sampling regime, the excess risk of Empirical Risk Minimizer (ERM) is bounded by the Rademacher complexity of the function class. (2) In the single sampling regime, sample-efficient risk minimization is not possible without further assumptions, regardless of algorithms. However, with completeness assumptions, the excess risk of FQI and a minimax style algorithm can be again bounded by the Rademacher complexity of the corresponding function classes. (3) Fast statistical rates can be achieved by using tools of local Rademacher complexity. Our analysis covers a wide range of function classes, including finite classes, linear spaces, kernel spaces, sparse linear features, etc.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Sparse Feature Selection Makes Batch Reinforcement Learning More Sample Efficient

This paper provides a statistical analysis of high-dimensional batch Reinforcement Learning (RL) using sparse linear function approximation. When there is a large number of candidate features, our result sheds light on the fact that sparsity-aware methods can make batch RL more sample efficient. We first consider the off-policy policy evaluation problem. To evaluate a new target policy, we analyze a Lasso fitted Q-evaluation method and establish a finite-sample error bound that has no polynomial dependence on the ambient dimension. To reduce the Lasso bias, we further propose a post model-selection estimator that applies fitted Q-evaluation to the features selected via group Lasso. Under an additional signal strength assumption, we derive a sharper instance-dependent error bound that depends on a divergence function measuring the distribution mismatch between the data distribution and occupancy measure of the target policy. Further, we study the Lasso fitted Q-iteration for batch policy optimization and establish a finite-sample error bound depending on the ratio between the number of relevant features and restricted minimal eigenvalue of the data's covariance. In the end, we complement the results with minimax lower bounds for batch-data policy evaluation/optimization that nearly match our upper bounds. The results suggest that having well-conditioned data is crucial for sparse batch policy learning.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Minimax-Optimal Off-Policy Evaluation with Linear Function Approximation

This paper studies the statistical theory of batch data reinforcement learning with function approximation. Consider the off-policy evaluation problem, which is to estimate the cumulative value of a new target policy from logged history generated by unknown behavioral policies. We study a regression-based fitted Q iteration method, and show that it is equivalent to a model-based method that estimates a conditional mean embedding of the transition operator. We prove that this method is information-theoretically optimal and has nearly minimal estimation error. In particular, by leveraging contraction property of Markov processes and martingale concentration, we establish a finite-sample instance-dependent error upper bound and a nearly-matching minimax lower bound. The policy evaluation error depends sharply on a restricted $χ^2$-divergence over the function class between the long-term distribution of the target policy and the distribution of past data. This restricted $χ^2$-divergence is both instance-dependent and function-class-dependent. It characterizes the statistical limit of off-policy evaluation. Further, we provide an easily computable confidence bound for the policy evaluator, which may be useful for optimistic planning and safe policy improvement.

cs.LG↗