arXiv subjects

Yarin Gal

Publications and source records attributed to Yarin Gal.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

Generating Physically-Consistent Satellite Imagery for Climate Visualizations

Deep generative vision models are now able to synthesize realistic-looking satellite imagery. But, the possibility of hallucinations prevents their adoption for risk-sensitive applications, such as generating materials for communicating climate change. To demonstrate this issue, we train a generative adversarial network (pix2pixHD) to create synthetic satellite imagery of future flooding and reforestation events. We find that a pure deep learning-based model can generate photorealistic flood visualizations but hallucinates floods at locations that were not susceptible to flooding. To address this issue, we propose to condition and evaluate generative vision models on segmentation maps of physics-based flood models. We show that our physics-conditioned model outperforms the pure deep learning-based model and a handcrafted baseline. We evaluate the generalization capability of our method to different remote sensing data and different climate-related events (reforestation). We publish our code and dataset which includes the data for a third case study of melting Arctic sea ice and $>$30,000 labeled HD image triplets -- or the equivalent of 5.5 million images at 128x128 pixels -- for segmentation guided image-to-image translation in Earth observation. Code and data is available at \url{https://github.com/blutjens/eie-earth-public}.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

ReLU to the Rescue: Improve Your On-Policy Actor-Critic with Positive Advantages

This paper proposes a step toward approximate Bayesian inference in on-policy actor-critic deep reinforcement learning. It is implemented through three changes to the Asynchronous Advantage Actor-Critic (A3C) algorithm: (1) applying a ReLU function to advantage estimates, (2) spectral normalization of actor-critic weights, and (3) incorporating \emph{dropout as a Bayesian approximation}. We prove under standard assumptions that restricting policy updates to positive advantages optimizes for value by maximizing a lower bound on the value function plus an additive term. We show that the additive term is bounded proportional to the Lipschitz constant of the value function, which offers theoretical grounding for spectral normalization of critic weights. Finally, our application of dropout corresponds to approximate Bayesian inference over both the actor and critic parameters, which enables \textit{adaptive state-aware} exploration around the modes of the actor via Thompson sampling. We demonstrate significant improvements for median and interquartile mean metrics over A3C, PPO, SAC, and TD3 on the MuJoCo continuous control benchmark and improvement over PPO in the challenging ProcGen generalization benchmark.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

TextCAVs: Debugging vision models using text

Concept-based interpretability methods are a popular form of explanation for deep learning models which provide explanations in the form of high-level human interpretable concepts. These methods typically find concept activation vectors (CAVs) using a probe dataset of concept examples. This requires labelled data for these concepts -- an expensive task in the medical domain. We introduce TextCAVs: a novel method which creates CAVs using vision-language models such as CLIP, allowing for explanations to be created solely using text descriptions of the concept, as opposed to image exemplars. This reduced cost in testing concepts allows for many concepts to be tested and for users to interact with the model, testing new ideas as they are thought of, rather than a delay caused by image collection and annotation. In early experimental results, we demonstrate that TextCAVs produces reasonable explanations for a chest x-ray dataset (MIMIC-CXR) and natural images (ImageNet), and that these explanations can be used to debug deep learning-based models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Variational Inference Failures Under Model Symmetries: Permutation Invariant Posteriors for Bayesian Neural Networks

Weight space symmetries in neural network architectures, such as permutation symmetries in MLPs, give rise to Bayesian neural network (BNN) posteriors with many equivalent modes. This multimodality poses a challenge for variational inference (VI) techniques, which typically rely on approximating the posterior with a unimodal distribution. In this work, we investigate the impact of weight space permutation symmetries on VI. We demonstrate, both theoretically and empirically, that these symmetries lead to biases in the approximate posterior, which degrade predictive performance and posterior fit if not explicitly accounted for. To mitigate this behavior, we leverage the symmetric structure of the posterior and devise a symmetrization mechanism for constructing permutation invariant variational posteriors. We show that the symmetrized distribution has a strictly better fit to the true posterior, and that it can be trained using the original ELBO objective with a modified KL regularization term. We demonstrate experimentally that our approach mitigates the aforementioned biases and results in improved predictions and a higher ELBO.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Fine-tuning can cripple your foundation model; preserving features may be the solution

Pre-trained foundation models, due to their enormous capacity and exposure to vast amounts of data during pre-training, are known to have learned plenty of real-world concepts. An important step in making these pre-trained models effective on downstream tasks is to fine-tune them on related datasets. While various fine-tuning methods have been devised and have been shown to be highly effective, we observe that a fine-tuned model's ability to recognize concepts on tasks $\textit{different}$ from the downstream one is reduced significantly compared to its pre-trained counterpart. This is an undesirable effect of fine-tuning as a substantial amount of resources was used to learn these pre-trained concepts in the first place. We call this phenomenon ''concept forgetting'' and via experiments show that most end-to-end fine-tuning approaches suffer heavily from this side effect. To this end, we propose a simple fix to this problem by designing a new fine-tuning method called $\textit{LDIFS}$ (short for $\ell_2$ distance in feature space) that, while learning new concepts related to the downstream task, allows a model to preserve its pre-trained knowledge as well. Through extensive experiments on 10 fine-tuning tasks we show that $\textit{LDIFS}$ significantly reduces concept forgetting. Additionally, we show that LDIFS is highly effective in performing continual fine-tuning on a sequence of tasks as well, in comparison with both fine-tuning as well as continual learning baselines.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Semantic Entropy Probes: Robust and Cheap Hallucination Detection in LLMs

We propose semantic entropy probes (SEPs), a cheap and reliable method for uncertainty quantification in Large Language Models (LLMs). Hallucinations, which are plausible-sounding but factually incorrect and arbitrary model generations, present a major challenge to the practical adoption of LLMs. Recent work by Farquhar et al. (2024) proposes semantic entropy (SE), which can detect hallucinations by estimating uncertainty in the space semantic meaning for a set of model generations. However, the 5-to-10-fold increase in computation cost associated with SE computation hinders practical adoption. To address this, we propose SEPs, which directly approximate SE from the hidden states of a single generation. SEPs are simple to train and do not require sampling multiple model generations at test time, reducing the overhead of semantic uncertainty quantification to almost zero. We show that SEPs retain high performance for hallucination detection and generalize better to out-of-distribution data than previous probing methods that directly predict model accuracy. Our results across models and tasks suggest that model hidden states capture SE, and our ablation studies give further insights into the token positions and model layers for which this is the case.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

The Benefits and Risks of Transductive Approaches for AI Fairness

Recently, transductive learning methods, which leverage holdout sets during training, have gained popularity for their potential to improve speed, accuracy, and fairness in machine learning models. Despite this, the composition of the holdout set itself, particularly the balance of sensitive sub-groups, has been largely overlooked. Our experiments on CIFAR and CelebA datasets show that compositional changes in the holdout set can substantially influence fairness metrics. Imbalanced holdout sets exacerbate existing disparities, while balanced holdouts can mitigate issues introduced by imbalanced training data. These findings underline the necessity of constructing holdout sets that are both diverse and representative.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Challenges and Considerations in the Evaluation of Bayesian Causal Discovery

Representing uncertainty in causal discovery is a crucial component for experimental design, and more broadly, for safe and reliable causal decision making. Bayesian Causal Discovery (BCD) offers a principled approach to encapsulating this uncertainty. Unlike non-Bayesian causal discovery, which relies on a single estimated causal graph and model parameters for assessment, evaluating BCD presents challenges due to the nature of its inferred quantity - the posterior distribution. As a result, the research community has proposed various metrics to assess the quality of the approximate posterior. However, there is, to date, no consensus on the most suitable metric(s) for evaluation. In this work, we reexamine this question by dissecting various metrics and understanding their limitations. Through extensive empirical evaluation, we find that many existing metrics fail to exhibit a strong correlation with the quality of approximation to the true posterior, especially in scenarios with low sample sizes where BCD is most desirable. We highlight the suitability (or lack thereof) of these metrics under two distinct factors: the identifiability of the underlying causal model and the quantity of available data. Both factors affect the entropy of the true posterior, indicating that the current metrics are less fitting in settings of higher entropy. Our findings underline the importance of a more nuanced evaluation of new methods by taking into account the nature of the true posterior, as well as guide and motivate the development of new evaluation procedures for this challenge.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Kernel Language Entropy: Fine-grained Uncertainty Quantification for LLMs from Semantic Similarities

Uncertainty quantification in Large Language Models (LLMs) is crucial for applications where safety and reliability are important. In particular, uncertainty can be used to improve the trustworthiness of LLMs by detecting factually incorrect model responses, commonly called hallucinations. Critically, one should seek to capture the model's semantic uncertainty, i.e., the uncertainty over the meanings of LLM outputs, rather than uncertainty over lexical or syntactic variations that do not affect answer correctness. To address this problem, we propose Kernel Language Entropy (KLE), a novel method for uncertainty estimation in white- and black-box LLMs. KLE defines positive semidefinite unit trace kernels to encode the semantic similarities of LLM outputs and quantifies uncertainty using the von Neumann entropy. It considers pairwise semantic dependencies between answers (or semantic clusters), providing more fine-grained uncertainty estimates than previous methods based on hard clustering of answers. We theoretically prove that KLE generalizes the previous state-of-the-art method called semantic entropy and empirically demonstrate that it improves uncertainty quantification performance across multiple natural language generation datasets and LLM architectures.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Pre-trained Text-to-Image Diffusion Models Are Versatile Representation Learners for Control

Embodied AI agents require a fine-grained understanding of the physical world mediated through visual and language inputs. Such capabilities are difficult to learn solely from task-specific data. This has led to the emergence of pre-trained vision-language models as a tool for transferring representations learned from internet-scale data to downstream tasks and new domains. However, commonly used contrastively trained representations such as in CLIP have been shown to fail at enabling embodied agents to gain a sufficiently fine-grained scene understanding -- a capability vital for control. To address this shortcoming, we consider representations from pre-trained text-to-image diffusion models, which are explicitly optimized to generate images from text prompts and as such, contain text-conditioned representations that reflect highly fine-grained visuo-spatial information. Using pre-trained text-to-image diffusion models, we construct Stable Control Representations which allow learning downstream control policies that generalize to complex, open-ended environments. We show that policies learned using Stable Control Representations are competitive with state-of-the-art representation learning approaches across a broad range of simulated control settings, encompassing challenging manipulation and navigation tasks. Most notably, we show that Stable Control Representations enable learning policies that exhibit state-of-the-art performance on OVMM, a difficult open-vocabulary navigation benchmark.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

The Curse of Recursion: Training on Generated Data Makes Models Forget

Stable Diffusion revolutionised image creation from descriptive text. GPT-2, GPT-3(.5) and GPT-4 demonstrated astonishing performance across a variety of language tasks. ChatGPT introduced such language models to the general public. It is now clear that large language models (LLMs) are here to stay, and will bring about drastic change in the whole ecosystem of online text and images. In this paper we consider what the future might hold. What will happen to GPT-{n} once LLMs contribute much of the language found online? We find that use of model-generated content in training causes irreversible defects in the resulting models, where tails of the original content distribution disappear. We refer to this effect as Model Collapse and show that it can occur in Variational Autoencoders, Gaussian Mixture Models and LLMs. We build theoretical intuition behind the phenomenon and portray its ubiquity amongst all learned generative models. We demonstrate that it has to be taken seriously if we are to sustain the benefits of training from large-scale data scraped from the web. Indeed, the value of data collected about genuine human interactions with systems will be increasingly valuable in the presence of content generated by LLMs in data crawled from the Internet.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

In-Context Learning Learns Label Relationships but Is Not Conventional Learning

The predictions of Large Language Models (LLMs) on downstream tasks often improve significantly when including examples of the input--label relationship in the context. However, there is currently no consensus about how this in-context learning (ICL) ability of LLMs works. For example, while Xie et al. (2021) liken ICL to a general-purpose learning algorithm, Min et al. (2022) argue ICL does not even learn label relationships from in-context examples. In this paper, we provide novel insights into how ICL leverages label information, revealing both capabilities and limitations. To ensure we obtain a comprehensive picture of ICL behavior, we study probabilistic aspects of ICL predictions and thoroughly examine the dynamics of ICL as more examples are provided. Our experiments show that ICL predictions almost always depend on in-context labels and that ICL can learn truly novel tasks in-context. However, we also find that ICL struggles to fully overcome prediction preferences acquired from pre-training data and, further, that ICL does not consider all in-context information equally.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Bayesian Preference Elicitation with Language Models

Aligning AI systems to users' interests requires understanding and incorporating humans' complex values and preferences. Recently, language models (LMs) have been used to gather information about the preferences of human users. This preference data can be used to fine-tune or guide other LMs and/or AI systems. However, LMs have been shown to struggle with crucial aspects of preference learning: quantifying uncertainty, modeling human mental states, and asking informative questions. These challenges have been addressed in other areas of machine learning, such as Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design (BOED), which focus on designing informative queries within a well-defined feature space. But these methods, in turn, are difficult to scale and apply to real-world problems where simply identifying the relevant features can be difficult. We introduce OPEN (Optimal Preference Elicitation with Natural language) a framework that uses BOED to guide the choice of informative questions and an LM to extract features and translate abstract BOED queries into natural language questions. By combining the flexibility of LMs with the rigor of BOED, OPEN can optimize the informativity of queries while remaining adaptable to real-world domains. In user studies, we find that OPEN outperforms existing LM- and BOED-based methods for preference elicitation.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2023

Can Active Sampling Reduce Causal Confusion in Offline Reinforcement Learning?

Causal confusion is a phenomenon where an agent learns a policy that reflects imperfect spurious correlations in the data. Such a policy may falsely appear to be optimal during training if most of the training data contain such spurious correlations. This phenomenon is particularly pronounced in domains such as robotics, with potentially large gaps between the open- and closed-loop performance of an agent. In such settings, causally confused models may appear to perform well according to open-loop metrics during training but fail catastrophically when deployed in the real world. In this paper, we study causal confusion in offline reinforcement learning. We investigate whether selectively sampling appropriate points from a dataset of demonstrations may enable offline reinforcement learning agents to disambiguate the underlying causal mechanisms of the environment, alleviate causal confusion in offline reinforcement learning, and produce a safer model for deployment. To answer this question, we consider a set of tailored offline reinforcement learning datasets that exhibit causal ambiguity and assess the ability of active sampling techniques to reduce causal confusion at evaluation. We provide empirical evidence that uniform and active sampling techniques are able to consistently reduce causal confusion as training progresses and that active sampling is able to do so significantly more efficiently than uniform sampling.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Tractable Function-Space Variational Inference in Bayesian Neural Networks

Reliable predictive uncertainty estimation plays an important role in enabling the deployment of neural networks to safety-critical settings. A popular approach for estimating the predictive uncertainty of neural networks is to define a prior distribution over the network parameters, infer an approximate posterior distribution, and use it to make stochastic predictions. However, explicit inference over neural network parameters makes it difficult to incorporate meaningful prior information about the data-generating process into the model. In this paper, we pursue an alternative approach. Recognizing that the primary object of interest in most settings is the distribution over functions induced by the posterior distribution over neural network parameters, we frame Bayesian inference in neural networks explicitly as inferring a posterior distribution over functions and propose a scalable function-space variational inference method that allows incorporating prior information and results in reliable predictive uncertainty estimates. We show that the proposed method leads to state-of-the-art uncertainty estimation and predictive performance on a range of prediction tasks and demonstrate that it performs well on a challenging safety-critical medical diagnosis task in which reliable uncertainty estimation is essential.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Continual Learning via Sequential Function-Space Variational Inference

Sequential Bayesian inference over predictive functions is a natural framework for continual learning from streams of data. However, applying it to neural networks has proved challenging in practice. Addressing the drawbacks of existing techniques, we propose an optimization objective derived by formulating continual learning as sequential function-space variational inference. In contrast to existing methods that regularize neural network parameters directly, this objective allows parameters to vary widely during training, enabling better adaptation to new tasks. Compared to objectives that directly regularize neural network predictions, the proposed objective allows for more flexible variational distributions and more effective regularization. We demonstrate that, across a range of task sequences, neural networks trained via sequential function-space variational inference achieve better predictive accuracy than networks trained with related methods while depending less on maintaining a set of representative points from previous tasks.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

DiscoBAX: Discovery of Optimal Intervention Sets in Genomic Experiment Design

The discovery of therapeutics to treat genetically-driven pathologies relies on identifying genes involved in the underlying disease mechanisms. Existing approaches search over the billions of potential interventions to maximize the expected influence on the target phenotype. However, to reduce the risk of failure in future stages of trials, practical experiment design aims to find a set of interventions that maximally change a target phenotype via diverse mechanisms. We propose DiscoBAX, a sample-efficient method for maximizing the rate of significant discoveries per experiment while simultaneously probing for a wide range of diverse mechanisms during a genomic experiment campaign. We provide theoretical guarantees of approximate optimality under standard assumptions, and conduct a comprehensive experimental evaluation covering both synthetic as well as real-world experimental design tasks. DiscoBAX outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods for experimental design, selecting effective and diverse perturbations in biological systems.

q-bio.QM↗

arXiv2023

Form follows Function: Text-to-Text Conditional Graph Generation based on Functional Requirements

This work focuses on the novel problem setting of generating graphs conditioned on a description of the graph's functional requirements in a downstream task. We pose the problem as a text-to-text generation problem and focus on the approach of fine-tuning a pretrained large language model (LLM) to generate graphs. We propose an inductive bias which incorporates information about the structure of the graph into the LLM's generation process by incorporating message passing layers into an LLM's architecture. To evaluate our proposed method, we design a novel set of experiments using publicly available and widely studied molecule and knowledge graph data sets. Results suggest our proposed approach generates graphs which more closely meet the requested functional requirements, outperforming baselines developed on similar tasks by a statistically significant margin.

cs.LG↗