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Yaxin Zhou

Publications and source records attributed to Yaxin Zhou.

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Diverse Evidence, Better Forecasts: Multi-Agent Deliberation Under Information Asymmetry

Multi-agent systems are increasingly used for forecasting future events, as deliberation among multiple LLMs is believed to improve reasoning and calibration. Yet existing approaches overlook a critical design choice: what information each agent receives. When all agents are given identical evidence, deliberation collapses into herding rather than genuine belief revision, leaving multi-agent systems little better than a single agent. We identify this as a fundamental gap and propose designed information asymmetry to close it: by partitioning evidence into shared public and disjoint private subsets, each agent holds exclusive knowledge that can only reach others through deliberation. We theoretically show that this decomposition reduces inter-agent error correlation, and instantiate it in InfoDelphi, a framework combining relevance-aware evidence routing, rationale-based iterative deliberation, and confidence-weighted aggregation. On PolyGym, a benchmark of 375 binary forecasting questions derived from real-world prediction markets, InfoDelphi outperforms the strongest single-agent and multi-agent baselines by 12--18% in Brier score and 4--8 percentage points in accuracy. More detailed experiments confirm that removing information asymmetry eliminates most deliberation gains, establishing diversity of input as the key enabler of effective multi-agent reasoning.

cs.AI

Don't Blindly Trust It: How Unreliable Feedback Breaks Tool-Using LLM Agents

Tool-augmented agents are typically evaluated by their gains under reliable external feedback. Yet these gains leave open a key counterfactual: when feedback is unreliable, would the agent be better off receiving no task evidence? We study this question with a controlled matched-loop comparison that fixes the agent loop, prompt, action space, and decoding, while varying only the returned observation: faithful, misleading, or absent. Across question answering and fact verification, persistent misleading feedback produces a value inversion: agents that benefit from clean tools can perform worse than the matched no-feedback fallback. On HotpotQA, Qwen2.5-7B reaches 44.8 F1 with clean retrieval and 22.3 F1 with no feedback, but drops to 4.7 F1 under shuffled retrieval. The inversion persists under stronger clean retrieval and locally plausible distractors, but weakens when later clean evidence can repair the trajectory. Early trajectory signals predict many failures, yet simple repairs remain fallback-limited: rejecting bad evidence helps only when the exposed fallback is reliable. These results show that clean-tool gains can overstate tool value, and that matched no-feedback fallback controls are necessary for evaluating tool-augmented agents.

cs.AI

CaveAgent: Transforming LLMs into Stateful Runtime Operators

LLM-based agents are increasingly capable of complex task execution, yet current agentic systems remain constrained by text-centric paradigms that struggle with long-horizon tasks due to fragile multi-turn dependencies and context drift. We present CaveAgent, a framework that shifts tool use from ``LLM-as-Text-Generator'' to ``LLM-as-Runtime-Operator.'' CaveAgent introduces a dual-stream architecture that inverts the conventional paradigm: rather than treating the LLM's text context as the primary workspace with tools as auxiliary, CaveAgent elevates the persistent Python runtime as the central locus of state, with a lightweight semantic stream serving as its orchestrator. Beyond leveraging code generation to resolve interdependent sub-tasks (e.g., loops, conditionals) in a single step, CaveAgent introduces \textit{Stateful Runtime Management}: it injects, manipulates, and retrieves complex Python objects (e.g., DataFrames, database connections) that persist across turns, unlike existing code-based approaches that remain text-bound. CaveAgent further provides a runtime-integrated skill management system that extends the Agent Skills open standard, enabling ecosystem interoperability through executable skill injections. This persistence mechanism serves as a high-fidelity external memory that reduces context drift in multi-turn interactions and preserves processed data for downstream applications without information loss. Evaluations show consistent improvement across challenging benchmarks, enabling CaveAgent to handle data scales that cause context overflow in both JSON-based and code-based agents. The accessible runtime state further provides programmatically verifiable feedback, enabling automated evaluation and reward signal generation without human annotation and establishing a structural foundation for future research in Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR).

cs.AI

Training Diffusion Policies via Prior-Mapping Co-Evolution

Reinforcement learning (RL) faces a persistent tension: policies that are stable to optimize (e.g., Gaussians) are often too simple to represent the multimodal action distributions required for complex control. Conversely, expressive generative policies -- such as diffusion and flow matching -- can be difficult to optimize in online RL due to intractable likelihoods and gradients propagating through long sampling chains. We address this tension with a key structural principle: decoupling optimization from generation. Building on this, we introduce GoRL (Generative Online Reinforcement Learning), an algorithm-agnostic framework that trains expressive policies from scratch by confining policy optimization to a tractable latent space while delegating action synthesis to a conditional generative decoder. Viewed as prior-mapping co-evolution, each stage first improves a tractable latent prior through RL and then consolidates the resulting behavior into a more expressive prior-to-action mapping. This two-timescale schedule, anchored by fixed-prior decoder refinement, enables stable optimization while continuously expanding expressiveness. Empirically, \textsc{GoRL} consistently outperforms unimodal and generative baselines across diverse continuous-control tasks. Notably, GoRL achieves returns exceeding 870 on HopperStand, more than 3* the strongest baseline; on high-dimensional humanoid tasks, it further outperforms the strongest non-GoRL baseline by over an order of magnitude.

cs.LG