Dynamic gravity model of urban passenger transportation
Modeling of urban traffic flows is required due to the complexity of their successful forecasting, as well as due to the impact of various random factors on them, and the complexity of transport systems in modern cities. Forecasting of traffic flows can be used as an effective tool for making scientifically sound decisions when creating a long-term plan for the integrated development of the city. The complex nature of the behavior of people and transport systems requires taking into account many different external and internal factors in the process of building a realistic model, as well as using large computing resources and large amounts of source data. In the process of planning the development of transport systems, the correct compilation of correspondence matrices, in which various modeling zones act as columns and rows, is of paramount importance. At the same time , the elements of the correspondence matrices are not static in general , but are subject to temporary changes , primarily diurnal and seasonal . The dynamic gravitational model proposed by us in this paper is based on a system of first - order differential equations . The solution of which will allow, according to the authors, to more accurately take into account the characteristics of urban traffic flows. If there is a set of initial data and the corresponding software, calculations of the model we offer can be made within a few hours.