arXiv subjects

Yi-An Ma

Publications and source records attributed to Yi-An Ma.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Deep Bayesian Active Learning for Accelerating Stochastic Simulation

Stochastic simulations such as large-scale, spatiotemporal, age-structured epidemic models are computationally expensive at fine-grained resolution. While deep surrogate models can speed up the simulations, doing so for stochastic simulations and with active learning approaches is an underexplored area. We propose Interactive Neural Process (INP), a deep Bayesian active learning framework for learning deep surrogate models to accelerate stochastic simulations. INP consists of two components, a spatiotemporal surrogate model built upon Neural Process (NP) family and an acquisition function for active learning. For surrogate modeling, we develop Spatiotemporal Neural Process (STNP) to mimic the simulator dynamics. For active learning, we propose a novel acquisition function, Latent Information Gain (LIG), calculated in the latent space of NP based models. We perform a theoretical analysis and demonstrate that LIG reduces sample complexity compared with random sampling in high dimensions. We also conduct empirical studies on three complex spatiotemporal simulators for reaction diffusion, heat flow, and infectious disease. The results demonstrate that STNP outperforms the baselines in the offline learning setting and LIG achieves the state-of-the-art for Bayesian active learning.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Aiming towards the minimizers: fast convergence of SGD for overparametrized problems

Modern machine learning paradigms, such as deep learning, occur in or close to the interpolation regime, wherein the number of model parameters is much larger than the number of data samples. In this work, we propose a regularity condition within the interpolation regime which endows the stochastic gradient method with the same worst-case iteration complexity as the deterministic gradient method, while using only a single sampled gradient (or a minibatch) in each iteration. In contrast, all existing guarantees require the stochastic gradient method to take small steps, thereby resulting in a much slower linear rate of convergence. Finally, we demonstrate that our condition holds when training sufficiently wide feedforward neural networks with a linear output layer.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Multi-fidelity Hierarchical Neural Processes

Science and engineering fields use computer simulation extensively. These simulations are often run at multiple levels of sophistication to balance accuracy and efficiency. Multi-fidelity surrogate modeling reduces the computational cost by fusing different simulation outputs. Cheap data generated from low-fidelity simulators can be combined with limited high-quality data generated by an expensive high-fidelity simulator. Existing methods based on Gaussian processes rely on strong assumptions of the kernel functions and can hardly scale to high-dimensional settings. We propose Multi-fidelity Hierarchical Neural Processes (MF-HNP), a unified neural latent variable model for multi-fidelity surrogate modeling. MF-HNP inherits the flexibility and scalability of Neural Processes. The latent variables transform the correlations among different fidelity levels from observations to latent space. The predictions across fidelities are conditionally independent given the latent states. It helps alleviate the error propagation issue in existing methods. MF-HNP is flexible enough to handle non-nested high dimensional data at different fidelity levels with varying input and output dimensions. We evaluate MF-HNP on epidemiology and climate modeling tasks, achieving competitive performance in terms of accuracy and uncertainty estimation. In contrast to deep Gaussian Processes with only low-dimensional (< 10) tasks, our method shows great promise for speeding up high-dimensional complex simulations (over 7000 for epidemiology modeling and 45000 for climate modeling).

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Dimension Independent Generalization of DP-SGD for Overparameterized Smooth Convex Optimization

This paper considers the generalization performance of differentially private convex learning. We demonstrate that the convergence analysis of Langevin algorithms can be used to obtain new generalization bounds with differential privacy guarantees for DP-SGD. More specifically, by using some recently obtained dimension-independent convergence results for stochastic Langevin algorithms with convex objective functions, we obtain $O(n^{-1/4})$ privacy guarantees for DP-SGD with the optimal excess generalization error of $\tilde{O}(n^{-1/2})$ for certain classes of overparameterized smooth convex optimization problems. This improves previous DP-SGD results for such problems that contain explicit dimension dependencies, so that the resulting generalization bounds become unsuitable for overparameterized models used in practical applications.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

On Optimal Early Stopping: Over-informative versus Under-informative Parametrization

Early stopping is a simple and widely used method to prevent over-training neural networks. We develop theoretical results to reveal the relationship between the optimal early stopping time and model dimension as well as sample size of the dataset for certain linear models. Our results demonstrate two very different behaviors when the model dimension exceeds the number of features versus the opposite scenario. While most previous works on linear models focus on the latter setting, we observe that the dimension of the model often exceeds the number of features arising from data in common deep learning tasks and propose a model to study this setting. We demonstrate experimentally that our theoretical results on optimal early stopping time corresponds to the training process of deep neural networks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

When is the Convergence Time of Langevin Algorithms Dimension Independent? A Composite Optimization Viewpoint

There has been a surge of works bridging MCMC sampling and optimization, with a specific focus on translating non-asymptotic convergence guarantees for optimization problems into the analysis of Langevin algorithms in MCMC sampling. A conspicuous distinction between the convergence analysis of Langevin sampling and that of optimization is that all known convergence rates for Langevin algorithms depend on the dimensionality of the problem, whereas the convergence rates for optimization are dimension-free for convex problems. Whether a dimension independent convergence rate can be achieved by Langevin algorithm is thus a long-standing open problem. This paper provides an affirmative answer to this problem for large classes of either Lipschitz or smooth convex problems with normal priors. By viewing Langevin algorithm as composite optimization, we develop a new analysis technique that leads to dimension independent convergence rates for such problems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Quantifying Uncertainty in Deep Spatiotemporal Forecasting

Deep learning is gaining increasing popularity for spatiotemporal forecasting. However, prior works have mostly focused on point estimates without quantifying the uncertainty of the predictions. In high stakes domains, being able to generate probabilistic forecasts with confidence intervals is critical to risk assessment and decision making. Hence, a systematic study of uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for spatiotemporal forecasting is missing in the community. In this paper, we describe two types of spatiotemporal forecasting problems: regular grid-based and graph-based. Then we analyze UQ methods from both the Bayesian and the frequentist point of view, casting in a unified framework via statistical decision theory. Through extensive experiments on real-world road network traffic, epidemics, and air quality forecasting tasks, we reveal the statistical and computational trade-offs for different UQ methods: Bayesian methods are typically more robust in mean prediction, while confidence levels obtained from frequentist methods provide more extensive coverage over data variations. Computationally, quantile regression type methods are cheaper for a single confidence interval but require re-training for different intervals. Sampling based methods generate samples that can form multiple confidence intervals, albeit at a higher computational cost.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2021

DeepGLEAM: A hybrid mechanistic and deep learning model for COVID-19 forecasting

We introduce DeepGLEAM, a hybrid model for COVID-19 forecasting. DeepGLEAM combines a mechanistic stochastic simulation model GLEAM with deep learning. It uses deep learning to learn the correction terms from GLEAM, which leads to improved performance. We further integrate various uncertainty quantification methods to generate confidence intervals. We demonstrate DeepGLEAM on real-world COVID-19 mortality forecasting tasks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Efficient and Scalable Bayesian Neural Nets with Rank-1 Factors

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) demonstrate promising success in improving the robustness and uncertainty quantification of modern deep learning. However, they generally struggle with underfitting at scale and parameter efficiency. On the other hand, deep ensembles have emerged as alternatives for uncertainty quantification that, while outperforming BNNs on certain problems, also suffer from efficiency issues. It remains unclear how to combine the strengths of these two approaches and remediate their common issues. To tackle this challenge, we propose a rank-1 parameterization of BNNs, where each weight matrix involves only a distribution on a rank-1 subspace. We also revisit the use of mixture approximate posteriors to capture multiple modes, where unlike typical mixtures, this approach admits a significantly smaller memory increase (e.g., only a 0.4% increase for a ResNet-50 mixture of size 10). We perform a systematic empirical study on the choices of prior, variational posterior, and methods to improve training. For ResNet-50 on ImageNet, Wide ResNet 28-10 on CIFAR-10/100, and an RNN on MIMIC-III, rank-1 BNNs achieve state-of-the-art performance across log-likelihood, accuracy, and calibration on the test sets and out-of-distribution variants.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

High-Order Langevin Diffusion Yields an Accelerated MCMC Algorithm

We propose a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm based on third-order Langevin dynamics for sampling from distributions with log-concave and smooth densities. The higher-order dynamics allow for more flexible discretization schemes, and we develop a specific method that combines splitting with more accurate integration. For a broad class of $d$-dimensional distributions arising from generalized linear models, we prove that the resulting third-order algorithm produces samples from a distribution that is at most $\varepsilon > 0$ in Wasserstein distance from the target distribution in $O\left(\frac{d^{1/4}}{ \varepsilon^{1/2}} \right)$ steps. This result requires only Lipschitz conditions on the gradient. For general strongly convex potentials with $α$-th order smoothness, we prove that the mixing time scales as $O \left(\frac{d^{1/4}}{\varepsilon^{1/2}} + \frac{d^{1/2}}{\varepsilon^{1/(α- 1)}} \right)$.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

Is There an Analog of Nesterov Acceleration for MCMC?

We formulate gradient-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling as optimization on the space of probability measures, with Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence as the objective functional. We show that an underdamped form of the Langevin algorithm performs accelerated gradient descent in this metric. To characterize the convergence of the algorithm, we construct a Lyapunov functional and exploit hypocoercivity of the underdamped Langevin algorithm. As an application, we show that accelerated rates can be obtained for a class of nonconvex functions with the Langevin algorithm.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

Sampling Can Be Faster Than Optimization

Optimization algorithms and Monte Carlo sampling algorithms have provided the computational foundations for the rapid growth in applications of statistical machine learning in recent years. There is, however, limited theoretical understanding of the relationships between these two kinds of methodology, and limited understanding of relative strengths and weaknesses. Moreover, existing results have been obtained primarily in the setting of convex functions (for optimization) and log-concave functions (for sampling). In this setting, where local properties determine global properties, optimization algorithms are unsurprisingly more efficient computationally than sampling algorithms. We instead examine a class of nonconvex objective functions that arise in mixture modeling and multi-stable systems. In this nonconvex setting, we find that the computational complexity of sampling algorithms scales linearly with the model dimension while that of optimization algorithms scales exponentially.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

Bayesian Robustness: A Nonasymptotic Viewpoint

We study the problem of robustly estimating the posterior distribution for the setting where observed data can be contaminated with potentially adversarial outliers. We propose Rob-ULA, a robust variant of the Unadjusted Langevin Algorithm (ULA), and provide a finite-sample analysis of its sampling distribution. In particular, we show that after $T= \tilde{\mathcal{O}}(d/\varepsilon_{\textsf{acc}})$ iterations, we can sample from $p_T$ such that $\text{dist}(p_T, p^*) \leq \varepsilon_{\textsf{acc}} + \tilde{\mathcal{O}}(ε)$, where $ε$ is the fraction of corruptions. We corroborate our theoretical analysis with experiments on both synthetic and real-world data sets for mean estimation, regression and binary classification.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

Stochastic Gradient MCMC for State Space Models

State space models (SSMs) are a flexible approach to modeling complex time series. However, inference in SSMs is often computationally prohibitive for long time series. Stochastic gradient MCMC (SGMCMC) is a popular method for scalable Bayesian inference for large independent data. Unfortunately when applied to dependent data, such as in SSMs, SGMCMC's stochastic gradient estimates are biased as they break crucial temporal dependencies. To alleviate this, we propose stochastic gradient estimators that control this bias by performing additional computation in a `buffer' to reduce breaking dependencies. Furthermore, we derive error bounds for this bias and show a geometric decay under mild conditions. Using these estimators, we develop novel SGMCMC samplers for discrete, continuous and mixed-type SSMs with analytic message passing. Our experiments on real and synthetic data demonstrate the effectiveness of our SGMCMC algorithms compared to batch MCMC, allowing us to scale inference to long time series with millions of time points.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

Deep Mixture of Experts via Shallow Embedding

Larger networks generally have greater representational power at the cost of increased computational complexity. Sparsifying such networks has been an active area of research but has been generally limited to static regularization or dynamic approaches using reinforcement learning. We explore a mixture of experts (MoE) approach to deep dynamic routing, which activates certain experts in the network on a per-example basis. Our novel DeepMoE architecture increases the representational power of standard convolutional networks by adaptively sparsifying and recalibrating channel-wise features in each convolutional layer. We employ a multi-headed sparse gating network to determine the selection and scaling of channels for each input, leveraging exponential combinations of experts within a single convolutional network. Our proposed architecture is evaluated on four benchmark datasets and tasks, and we show that Deep-MoEs are able to achieve higher accuracy with lower computation than standard convolutional networks.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2018

Irreversible Samplers from Jump and Continuous Markov Processes

In this paper, we propose irreversible versions of the Metropolis Hastings (MH) and Metropolis adjusted Langevin algorithm (MALA) with a main focus on the latter. For the former, we show how one can simply switch between different proposal and acceptance distributions upon rejection to obtain an irreversible jump sampler (I-Jump). The resulting algorithm has a simple implementation akin to MH, but with the demonstrated benefits of irreversibility. We then show how the previously proposed MALA method can also be extended to exploit irreversible stochastic dynamics as proposal distributions in the I-Jump sampler. Our experiments explore how irreversibility can increase the efficiency of the samplers in different situations.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2018

On the Theory of Variance Reduction for Stochastic Gradient Monte Carlo

We provide convergence guarantees in Wasserstein distance for a variety of variance-reduction methods: SAGA Langevin diffusion, SVRG Langevin diffusion and control-variate underdamped Langevin diffusion. We analyze these methods under a uniform set of assumptions on the log-posterior distribution, assuming it to be smooth, strongly convex and Hessian Lipschitz. This is achieved by a new proof technique combining ideas from finite-sum optimization and the analysis of sampling methods. Our sharp theoretical bounds allow us to identify regimes of interest where each method performs better than the others. Our theory is verified with experiments on real-world and synthetic datasets.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2017

Stochastic Gradient MCMC Methods for Hidden Markov Models

Stochastic gradient MCMC (SG-MCMC) algorithms have proven useful in scaling Bayesian inference to large datasets under an assumption of i.i.d data. We instead develop an SG-MCMC algorithm to learn the parameters of hidden Markov models (HMMs) for time-dependent data. There are two challenges to applying SG-MCMC in this setting: The latent discrete states, and needing to break dependencies when considering minibatches. We consider a marginal likelihood representation of the HMM and propose an algorithm that harnesses the inherent memory decay of the process. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm on synthetic experiments and an ion channel recording data, with runtimes significantly outperforming batch MCMC.

stat.ML↗