arXiv subjects

Yichen Zhou

Publications and source records attributed to Yichen Zhou.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Rethinking Multimodal Time-Series Forecasting Evaluation

We introduce a new context-enriched, multimodal time series forecasting benchmark, TimesX. TimesX contains a wide selection of high-quality real-world time series with diverse domains and textual contexts obtained from an automated data generation pipeline, which helps address three main issues of existing multimodal forecasting benchmarks: (1) poor generalization due to the small scale and synthetic nature of benchmark data, (2) very limited types of textual contexts in the benchmarks, and (3) an inability to mitigate data leakage in evaluation. We conduct a thorough empirical study of zero-shot multimodal forecasting approaches on TimesX. Our results suggest that many approaches that perform well on existing benchmarks may fail on TimesX. In contrast, simple ensemble methods that leverage rich textual context accompanying time-series can outperform strong baselines on TimesX.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Rethinking Post-Training Recipes for Multimodal Time-Series Forecasting

Time-Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) excel at zero-shot unimodal forecasting using numerical data, but unlike LLMs they cannot consume multimodal, non-numerical context that often shape real-world trajectories. In this work, we bridge this gap and argue for a multimodal time-series forecasting approach that post-trains LLMs to act as context-guided revisors over strong numerical TSFM priors. We introduce PostTime, a post-training recipe combining Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) and Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR), along with a methodology to generate automated reasoning traces for forecast revisions. PostTime teaches an LLM to generate context-conditioned forecast interventions -- decisions to revise, preserve, or ignore the TSFM prior based on the multimodal context. We evaluate this approach on the TimesX multimodal forecasting benchmark using a Gemma-3-4B LLM and TimesFM-2.5 TSFM, and show that it significantly outperforms standalone TSFMs, LLM-only baselines, and existing multimodal forecasting approaches.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

CLT-Optimal Parameter Error Bounds for Linear System Identification

There has been remarkable progress over the past decade in establishing finite-sample, non-asymptotic bounds on recovering unknown system parameters from observed system behavior. Surprisingly, however, we show that the current state-of-the-art bounds do not accurately capture the statistical complexity of system identification, even in the most fundamental setting of estimating a discrete-time linear dynamical system (LDS) via ordinary least-squares regression (OLS). Specifically, we utilize asymptotic normality to identify classes of problem instances for which current bounds overstate the squared parameter error, in both spectral and Frobenius norm, by a factor of the state-dimension of the system. Informed by this discrepancy, we then sharpen the OLS parameter error bounds via a novel second-order decomposition of the parameter error, where crucially the lower-order term is a matrix-valued martingale that we show correctly captures the CLT scaling. From our analysis we obtain finite-sample bounds for both (i) stable systems and (ii) the many-trajectories setting that match the instance-specific optimal rates up to constant factors in Frobenius norm, and polylogarithmic state-dimension factors in spectral norm.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

ViroGym: Realistic Large-Scale Benchmarks for Evaluating Viral Proteins

Protein language models (pLMs) have shown strong potential for zero-shot prediction of missense variant effects, yet systematic benchmarking on viral proteins remains limited, a critical gap given the need for proactive tools that can anticipate emerging mutations ahead of experimental validation. Here we introduce ViroGym, a comprehensive benchmark evaluating pLMs across three tasks: 79 deep mutational scanning (DMS) assays covering eukaryotic viruses with 552,065 mutated sequences across 7 phenotypic readouts, 21 influenza neutralisation tasks, and a real-world pandemic prediction task for SARS-CoV-2. We benchmark well-established pLMs on fitness landscapes, antigenic diversity, and pandemic forecasting, and find that the ProGen2 family consistently achieves the strongest performance across all three tasks. Crucially, DMS and neutralisation performance reliably identifies models that generalise to real-world emergence, even though the mutation sets they surface barely overlap, revealing that complementary in vitro benchmarks capture the evolutionary constraints needed for real-world mutation forecasting.

q-bio.QM↗

arXiv2026

Cellular Automata: From Structural Principles to Transport and Correlation Methods

Cellular automata (CA) are discrete-time dynamical systems with local update rules on a lattice. Despite their elementary definition, CA support a wide spectrum of macroscopic phenomena central to statistical physics: equilibrium and nonequilibrium phase transitions, transport and hydrodynamic limits, kinetic roughening, self-organized criticality, and complex spatiotemporal correlations. This survey focuses on three tightly connected themes. \emph{(i)} We present a structural view of CA as shift-commuting maps on configuration spaces, emphasizing rule complexity, reversibility, and conservation laws (including discrete continuity equations). \emph{(ii)} We organize transport in CA into ballistic, diffusive, and anomalous regimes, and connect microscopic currents to macroscopic laws through Green--Kubo formulas, scaling theory, and universality classes. \emph{(iii)} We develop correlation-based methods -- from structure factors and response formulas to computational mechanics and data-driven inference -- that diagnose regimes and enable coarse-graining.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2025

Nearly Instance-Optimal Parameter Recovery from Many Trajectories via Hellinger Localization

Learning from temporally-correlated data is a core facet of modern machine learning. Yet our understanding of sequential learning remains incomplete, particularly in the multi-trajectory setting where data consists of many independent realizations of a time-indexed stochastic process. This important regime both reflects modern training pipelines such as for large foundation models, and offers the potential for learning without the typical mixing assumptions made in the single-trajectory case. However, instance-optimal bounds are known only for least-squares regression with dependent covariates; for more general models or loss functions, the only broadly applicable guarantees result from a reduction to either i.i.d. learning, with effective sample size scaling only in the number of trajectories, or an existing single-trajectory result when each individual trajectory mixes, with effective sample size scaling as the full data budget deflated by the mixing-time. In this work, we significantly broaden the scope of instance-optimal rates in multi-trajectory settings via the Hellinger localization framework, a general approach for maximum likelihood estimation. Our method proceeds by first controlling the squared Hellinger distance at the path-measure level via a reduction to i.i.d. learning, followed by localization as a quadratic form in parameter space weighted by the trajectory Fisher information. This yields instance-optimal bounds that scale with the full data budget under a broad set of conditions. We instantiate our framework across four diverse case studies: a simple mixture of Markov chains, dependent linear regression under non-Gaussian noise, generalized linear models with non-monotonic activations, and linear-attention sequence models. In all cases, our bounds nearly match the instance-optimal rates from asymptotic normality, substantially improving over standard reductions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

MPC-EVM: Enabling MPC Execution by Smart Contracts In An Asynchronous Manner

This paper presents MPC-EVM, the first blockchain prototype that extends the EVM to enable asynchronous MPC invocations by smart contracts during transaction executions without compromising consistency or throughput. MPC-EVM uses an asynchronous execution model to process MPC-invoking transactions in a non-blocking fashion, saving the transaction's progress when it enters an MPC and resuming its execution upon MPC's completion. Additionally, it employs an access control mechanism that prevents inconsistent state access and modifications as a result of asynchronous executions. Benchmarking MPC-EVM's throughput show that the transactions per second (TPS) decreased by less than 3% compared to the baseline when MPC-invoking transactions are executed alongside regular transactions.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2024

In-Context Fine-Tuning for Time-Series Foundation Models

Motivated by the recent success of time-series foundation models for zero-shot forecasting, we present a methodology for $\textit{in-context fine-tuning}$ of a time-series foundation model. In particular, we design a pretrained foundation model that can be prompted (at inference time) with multiple time-series examples, in order to forecast a target time-series into the future. Our foundation model is specifically trained to utilize examples from multiple related time-series in its context window (in addition to the history of the target time-series) to help it adapt to the specific distribution of the target domain at inference time. We show that such a foundation model that uses in-context examples at inference time can obtain much better performance on popular forecasting benchmarks compared to supervised deep learning methods, statistical models, as well as other time-series foundation models. Interestingly, our in-context fine-tuning approach even rivals the performance of a foundation model that is explicitly fine-tuned on the target domain.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Robustness to Model Approximation, Model Learning From Data, and Sample Complexity in Wasserstein Regular MDPs

The paper studies the robustness properties of discrete-time stochastic optimal control under Wasserstein model approximation for both discounted-cost and average-cost criteria. Specifically, we study the performance loss when applying an optimal policy designed for an approximate model to the true dynamics compared with the optimal cost for the true model under the sup-norm-induced metric, and relate it to the Wasserstein-1 distance between the approximate and true transition kernels. A primary motivation of this analysis is empirical model learning, as well as empirical noise distribution learning, where Wasserstein convergence holds under mild conditions but stronger convergence criteria, such as total variation, may not. We discuss applications of the results to the disturbance estimation problem, where sample complexity bounds are given, and also to a general empirical model learning approach, obtained under either Markov or i.i.d. learning settings.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2023

Generalized Damping Torque Analysis of Ultra-Low Frequency Oscillation in the Jerk Space

Ultra low frequency oscillation (ULFO) is significantly threatening the power system stability. Its unstable mechanism is mostly studied via generalized damping torque analysis method (GDTA). However, the analysis still adopts the framework established for low frequency oscillation. Hence, this letter proposes a GDTA approach in the jerk space for ULFO. A multi-information variable is constructed to transform the system into a new state space, where it is found that the jerk dynamics of the turbine-generator cascaded system is a second-order differential equation. Benefiting from this characteristic, we propose a new form for GDTA using jerk dynamics, which is established in the frequency-frequency acceleration phase space. Then, analytical expressions of all damping torque are provided. Finally, test results verified the proposed theoretical results. The negative damping mechanism is revealed, and parameter adjustment measures are concluded.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2023

A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecasting

Motivated by recent advances in large language models for Natural Language Processing (NLP), we design a time-series foundation model for forecasting whose out-of-the-box zero-shot performance on a variety of public datasets comes close to the accuracy of state-of-the-art supervised forecasting models for each individual dataset. Our model is based on pretraining a patched-decoder style attention model on a large time-series corpus, and can work well across different forecasting history lengths, prediction lengths and temporal granularities.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2022

MetaFormer Baselines for Vision

MetaFormer, the abstracted architecture of Transformer, has been found to play a significant role in achieving competitive performance. In this paper, we further explore the capacity of MetaFormer, again, without focusing on token mixer design: we introduce several baseline models under MetaFormer using the most basic or common mixers, and summarize our observations as follows: (1) MetaFormer ensures solid lower bound of performance. By merely adopting identity mapping as the token mixer, the MetaFormer model, termed IdentityFormer, achieves >80% accuracy on ImageNet-1K. (2) MetaFormer works well with arbitrary token mixers. When specifying the token mixer as even a random matrix to mix tokens, the resulting model RandFormer yields an accuracy of >81%, outperforming IdentityFormer. Rest assured of MetaFormer's results when new token mixers are adopted. (3) MetaFormer effortlessly offers state-of-the-art results. With just conventional token mixers dated back five years ago, the models instantiated from MetaFormer already beat state of the art. (a) ConvFormer outperforms ConvNeXt. Taking the common depthwise separable convolutions as the token mixer, the model termed ConvFormer, which can be regarded as pure CNNs, outperforms the strong CNN model ConvNeXt. (b) CAFormer sets new record on ImageNet-1K. By simply applying depthwise separable convolutions as token mixer in the bottom stages and vanilla self-attention in the top stages, the resulting model CAFormer sets a new record on ImageNet-1K: it achieves an accuracy of 85.5% at 224x224 resolution, under normal supervised training without external data or distillation. In our expedition to probe MetaFormer, we also find that a new activation, StarReLU, reduces 71% FLOPs of activation compared with GELU yet achieves better performance. We expect StarReLU to find great potential in MetaFormer-like models alongside other neural networks.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2022

Robust Distillation for Worst-class Performance

Knowledge distillation has proven to be an effective technique in improving the performance a student model using predictions from a teacher model. However, recent work has shown that gains in average efficiency are not uniform across subgroups in the data, and in particular can often come at the cost of accuracy on rare subgroups and classes. To preserve strong performance across classes that may follow a long-tailed distribution, we develop distillation techniques that are tailored to improve the student's worst-class performance. Specifically, we introduce robust optimization objectives in different combinations for the teacher and student, and further allow for training with any tradeoff between the overall accuracy and the robust worst-class objective. We show empirically that our robust distillation techniques not only achieve better worst-class performance, but also lead to Pareto improvement in the tradeoff between overall performance and worst-class performance compared to other baseline methods. Theoretically, we provide insights into what makes a good teacher when the goal is to train a robust student.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Inception Transformer

Recent studies show that Transformer has strong capability of building long-range dependencies, yet is incompetent in capturing high frequencies that predominantly convey local information. To tackle this issue, we present a novel and general-purpose Inception Transformer, or iFormer for short, that effectively learns comprehensive features with both high- and low-frequency information in visual data. Specifically, we design an Inception mixer to explicitly graft the advantages of convolution and max-pooling for capturing the high-frequency information to Transformers. Different from recent hybrid frameworks, the Inception mixer brings greater efficiency through a channel splitting mechanism to adopt parallel convolution/max-pooling path and self-attention path as high- and low-frequency mixers, while having the flexibility to model discriminative information scattered within a wide frequency range. Considering that bottom layers play more roles in capturing high-frequency details while top layers more in modeling low-frequency global information, we further introduce a frequency ramp structure, i.e. gradually decreasing the dimensions fed to the high-frequency mixer and increasing those to the low-frequency mixer, which can effectively trade-off high- and low-frequency components across different layers. We benchmark the iFormer on a series of vision tasks, and showcase that it achieves impressive performance on image classification, COCO detection and ADE20K segmentation. For example, our iFormer-S hits the top-1 accuracy of 83.4% on ImageNet-1K, much higher than DeiT-S by 3.6%, and even slightly better than much bigger model Swin-B (83.3%) with only 1/4 parameters and 1/3 FLOPs. Code and models will be released at https://github.com/sail-sg/iFormer.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2022

Mugs: A Multi-Granular Self-Supervised Learning Framework

In self-supervised learning, multi-granular features are heavily desired though rarely investigated, as different downstream tasks (e.g., general and fine-grained classification) often require different or multi-granular features, e.g.~fine- or coarse-grained one or their mixture. In this work, for the first time, we propose an effective MUlti-Granular Self-supervised learning (Mugs) framework to explicitly learn multi-granular visual features. Mugs has three complementary granular supervisions: 1) an instance discrimination supervision (IDS), 2) a novel local-group discrimination supervision (LGDS), and 3) a group discrimination supervision (GDS). IDS distinguishes different instances to learn instance-level fine-grained features. LGDS aggregates features of an image and its neighbors into a local-group feature, and pulls local-group features from different crops of the same image together and push them away for others. It provides complementary instance supervision to IDS via an extra alignment on local neighbors, and scatters different local-groups separately to increase discriminability. Accordingly, it helps learn high-level fine-grained features at a local-group level. Finally, to prevent similar local-groups from being scattered randomly or far away, GDS brings similar samples close and thus pulls similar local-groups together, capturing coarse-grained features at a (semantic) group level. Consequently, Mugs can capture three granular features that often enjoy higher generality on diverse downstream tasks over single-granular features, e.g.~instance-level fine-grained features in contrastive learning. By only pretraining on ImageNet-1K, Mugs sets new SoTA linear probing accuracy 82.1$\%$ on ImageNet-1K and improves previous SoTA by $1.1\%$. It also surpasses SoTAs on other tasks, e.g. transfer learning, detection and segmentation.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2021

MetaFormer Is Actually What You Need for Vision

Transformers have shown great potential in computer vision tasks. A common belief is their attention-based token mixer module contributes most to their competence. However, recent works show the attention-based module in Transformers can be replaced by spatial MLPs and the resulted models still perform quite well. Based on this observation, we hypothesize that the general architecture of the Transformers, instead of the specific token mixer module, is more essential to the model's performance. To verify this, we deliberately replace the attention module in Transformers with an embarrassingly simple spatial pooling operator to conduct only basic token mixing. Surprisingly, we observe that the derived model, termed as PoolFormer, achieves competitive performance on multiple computer vision tasks. For example, on ImageNet-1K, PoolFormer achieves 82.1% top-1 accuracy, surpassing well-tuned Vision Transformer/MLP-like baselines DeiT-B/ResMLP-B24 by 0.3%/1.1% accuracy with 35%/52% fewer parameters and 50%/62% fewer MACs. The effectiveness of PoolFormer verifies our hypothesis and urges us to initiate the concept of "MetaFormer", a general architecture abstracted from Transformers without specifying the token mixer. Based on the extensive experiments, we argue that MetaFormer is the key player in achieving superior results for recent Transformer and MLP-like models on vision tasks. This work calls for more future research dedicated to improving MetaFormer instead of focusing on the token mixer modules. Additionally, our proposed PoolFormer could serve as a starting baseline for future MetaFormer architecture design. Code is available at https://github.com/sail-sg/poolformer.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2021

Malicious Mode Attack on EV Coordinated Charging Load and MIADRC Defense Strategy

The Internet of Things (IoT) provides a salient communication environment to facilitate the coordinated charging of electric vehicle (EV) load. However, as IoT is connected with the public network, the coordinated charging system is in a low-level cyber security and greatly vulnerable to malicious attacks. This paper investigates the malicious mode attack (MMA), which is a new cyberattack pattern that simultaneously attacks massive EV charging piles to generate continuous sinusoidal power disturbance with the same frequency as the poorly-damped wide-area electromechanical mode. Thereby, high amplitude forced oscillations could be stimulated by MMA, which seriously threats the power system stability. First, the potential threat of MMA is clarified by investigating the vulnerability of the IoT-based coordinated charging load control system, and an MMA process like Mirai is pointed out as an example. And then, based on the attack process, an MMA model is established for impact analysis where expressions of the mean and stochastic responses of the MMA forced oscillation are derived to discover main impact factors. Further, to mitigate the impact of MMA, a defense strategy based on multi-index information active disturbance rejection control is proposed to improve the stability and anti-disturbance ability of the power system, which considers the impact factors of both mode damping and disturbance compensation. Simulations are conducted to verify the existence and characteristics of MMA threats, and the efficiency of the proposed defense strategy is also validated.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2021

Preliminary Study on Forced Oscillation of Power System with Quadratic Nonlinearity

Forced oscillation (FO) is a significant concern threating the power system stability. Its mechanisms are mostly studied via linear models. However, FO amplitude is increasing, e.g., Nordic and Western American FOs, which can stimulate power system nonlinearity. Hence, this paper incorporates nonlinearity in FO mechanism analysis. The multi-scale technique is employed in solving the forced oscillation equation to handle the quadratic nonlinearity. The amplitude-frequency characteristic curves and first-order approximate expressions are derived. The frequency deviation and jumping phenomenon caused by nonlinearity are discovered and further analyzed by comparing with linear models. This paper provides a preliminary research for nonlinear FOs of power system, and more characteristics should be further analysis in the near future.

eess.SY↗