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Yijie Peng

Publications and source records attributed to Yijie Peng.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Near-Oracle Robustification of Finite-Difference Stochastic Gradient Estimators via Cheap Pilot Calibration

We study stochastic gradient estimation in black-box environments where only noisy simulation observations of function values are available. Finite-difference (FD) methods are among the most widely used zeroth-order gradient estimators in such settings, by measuring the change in function values against a perturbation size. While the optimal order in choosing this perturbation size with respect to the simulation budget is well understood, the optimal constant factor relies on model characteristics that are typically unknown and viewed to be as difficult to estimate as the gradient itself. Consequently, FD estimators are often based on ad hoc tuning of the perturbation size, which may exhibit highly unstable performance across problem instances. In this paper, we challenge this conventional wisdom from both theoretical and practical perspectives. We show that, by pilot-estimating these model quantities using a negligible fraction of the simulation budget, substantial robustness is attained in the resulting FD estimators. Theoretically, we show that using a perturbation size governed by this pilot estimation can already achieve an MSE that is first-order identical to the ``oracle" MSE as if the optimal perturbation size is known in advance. Moreover, we show how such an approach is competitive against any choices of prescribed perturbation size, even if they are designed to be minimax-optimal over reasonable classes of target functions and FD schemes. Our proposed pilot estimation is practically easy to run, and a variety of numerical experiments demonstrate both the robustness and near-oracle optimality of our estimator relative to conventional FD schemes based on ad hoc tuning.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2026

Dynamic Cloud Service-Capacity Deployment with Costly Response Readiness

AI product launches require service-capacity decisions before sufficient product-specific workload histories are available. Early service observations update beliefs about remaining workload, but workload does not physically deplete capacity as inventory demand does. Preserving rapid-response capability may also require costly capacity-access and operational arrangements. We study how a firm should jointly decide current capacity deployment and future response readiness. We formulate a finite-horizon dynamic program with workload beliefs, serviceable capacity, and an absorbing response-channel state. A preservation-deployment decomposition solves one deployment problem for each continuation choice and compares the resulting optimized values. This structure identifies when response readiness should be preserved and how much capacity should be deployed. We operationalize the framework through the Cold-Start Belief Actionability Policy (CBAP), which estimates side-specific values using workload scenarios drawn from predictive beliefs. We also establish bounds on its decision and lifecycle performance losses. Numerical experiments and a BurstGPT-based evaluation show that CBAP reduces lifecycle cost relative to benchmark policies by avoiding premature deployment and unnecessary readiness spending. The results distinguish forecast informativeness from operational actionability and show that current deployment and future response readiness are separate decision margins. Zero deployment may represent Standby rather than Exit, while positive deployment need not imply preserving the response channel.

math.OC↗
arXiv2026

A Unified Detection Framework for AI-Related Content and Artifacts

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a double-edged sword: while it has achieved remarkable success across a wide range of domains, its deployment also calls for effective oversight and regulation, for which the detection of AI-related content and artifacts is perhaps the most direct and cost-effective approach. To this end, we propose a unified detection framework based on Mahalanobis distance scores (MDS), applicable to several important settings, including the detection of large language model (LLM) generated text, hallucination, watermark, and adversarial examples. A key component of the proposed method is to accurately characterize the positive class--such as human-generated text, factual statements, unwatermarked text, or non-adversarial samples--which requires an efficient and robust estimator of the covariance matrix of deep representations of positive samples before computing the MDS. Since the positive samples typically consist of multiple classes, and these classes may exhibit both homogeneity and heterogeneity, we develop joint estimation methods for both the casewise and cellwise minimum covariance determinant (MCD) estimators. We provide efficient optimization algorithms for both estimators and prove their convergence. We provide a reasonable definition of the breakdown point for the joint estimators and prove their corresponding high breakdown point properties. Empirical evaluations confirm the effectiveness of the proposed detection framework.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Extreme-Case Distorted Utility under Moment Ambiguity

Many operations decisions under distributional ambiguity, from pricing and inventory to capacity and contracting, evaluate an action through a tail-sensitive distorted utility of an uncertain payoff and hedge against the least favorable distribution consistent with a few known moments; the resulting worst-case evaluation is the inner problem of a moment-based distributionally robust decision. We study this inner problem, the extreme-case distorted utility under moment constraints, for a locally Lipschitz utility that may be nonsmooth and neither convex nor concave together with a general, possibly atomic, distortion. Recasting the problem in the quantile domain, we develop a unified method that yields exact first-order optimality conditions and closed-form extremal values and distributions for both the worst and best cases, drawing on nonsmooth variational analysis. A central step treats the monotonicity constraint by isotonic projection onto the monotone cone, turning an abstract infinite-dimensional restriction into an inexpensive inner solve that scales linearly in the discretization. The method recovers and extends classical moment bounds through three examples: a range value-at-risk extension of the Scarf bound, GlueVaR distortions with a reward--penalty utility, and a capped incentive contract under conditional value-at-risk. As the inner oracle of a robust min-max decision, the characterization embeds directly in outer robust optimization, illustrated on a real capacity-provisioning problem for generative artificial intelligence inference where accounting for moment ambiguity lowers required capacity while preserving service compliance.

math.OC↗
arXiv2026

Scaling Self-Evolving Agents via Parametric Memory

Existing memory-augmented LLM agents store past experience exclusively in prompt space, as textual summaries or retrieved passages, while keeping model parameters frozen throughout a rollout. Such agents can \emph{look up} what they have seen but cannot \emph{learn from} it: their policy is unchanged by experience, and any information dropped from the context is permanently lost. We introduce \texttt{TMEM}, a self-evolving parametric memory framework in which the agent not only compresses history into explicit memory but also absorbs distilled supervision into fast LoRA weights $\Delta_t$ via lightweight online updates, genuinely altering its future behavior within a single episode. We formalize this as an agentic decision process with fast-weight rollout dynamics: actions are sampled from $\pi_{\theta_0+\Delta_t}$, while extraction actions produce supervision that updates $\Delta_t$ for subsequent decisions. This view makes the extraction policy directly optimizable by RL: training $\theta_0$ improves not only task actions but also the quality of the data used for online LoRA adaptation. We further propose SVD-based initialization of the LoRA subspace to accelerate online convergence. Experiments on LoCoMo, LongMemEval-S, multi-objective search, and CL-Bench show that \texttt{TMEM} consistently outperforms summary-based and retrieval-based baselines across different model scales.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Cold-Start Forecasting of New Product Life-Cycles via Conditional Diffusion Models

Forecasting the life-cycle trajectory of a newly launched product is important for launch planning, resource allocation, and early risk assessment. This task is especially difficult in the pre-launch and early post-launch phases, when product-specific outcome history is limited or unavailable, creating a cold-start problem. In these phases, firms must make decisions before demand patterns become reliably observable, while early signals are often sparse, noisy, and unstable We propose the Conditional Diffusion Life-cycle Forecaster (CDLF), a conditional generative framework for forecasting new-product life-cycle trajectories under cold start. CDLF combines three sources of information: static descriptors, reference trajectories from similar products, and newly arriving observations when available. Here, static descriptors refer to structured pre-launch characteristics of the product, such as category, price tier, brand or organization identity, scale, and access conditions. This structure allows the model to condition forecasts on relevant product context and to update them adaptively over time without retraining, yielding flexible multi-modal predictive distributions under extreme data scarcity. The method satisfies consistency with a horizon-uniform distributional error bound for recursive generation. Across studies on Intel microprocessor stock keeping unit (SKU) life cycles and the platform-mediated adoption of open large language model repositories, CDLF delivers more accurate point forecasts and higher-quality probabilistic forecasts than classical diffusion models, Bayesian updating approaches, and other state-of-the-art machine-learning baselines.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Covariance Matrix Estimation for High-Dimensional Interval-Valued Data with Positive Definiteness

In the realm of high-dimensional data analysis, the estimation of covariance matrices is a fundamental task, and this holds true for interval-valued data as well. However, there is no unified definition for the covariance matrix of interval-valued data, let alone established estimation methods in high-dimensional settings. This paper presents a novel approach to estimating covariance matrices for high-dimensional interval-valued data while ensuring positive definiteness. We begin by assuming that the upper and lower bounds of interval-valued variables share the same dependency structure. Based on this assumption, we extend the classical soft-thresholding covariance matrix estimator to the interval-valued scenario, referred to as the Interval-valued Soft-Thresholding (IST) estimator. Subsequently, to ensure the positive definiteness of the estimator, we impose a positive definiteness constraint on the IST estimator. We derive an alternating direction method to solve the proposed problem and establish its convergence. Under some very mild conditions, we develop a non-asymptotic statistical theory for the proposed estimator. Simulation studies and applications to high-frequency financial data from the CSI 300 Index demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed estimator.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2026

Machine Learning-Assisted High-Dimensional Matrix Estimation

Efficient estimation of high-dimensional matrices-including covariance and precision matrices-is a cornerstone of modern multivariate statistics. Most existing studies have focused primarily on the theoretical properties of the estimators (e.g., consistency and sparsity), while largely overlooking the computational challenges inherent in high-dimensional settings. Motivated by recent advances in learning-based optimization method-which integrate data-driven structures with classical optimization algorithms-we explore high-dimensional matrix estimation assisted by machine learning. Specifically, for the optimization problem of high-dimensional matrix estimation, we first present a solution procedure based on the Linearized Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (LADMM). We then introduce learnable parameters and model the proximal operators in the iterative scheme with neural networks, thereby improving estimation accuracy and accelerating convergence. Theoretically, we first prove the convergence of LADMM, and then establish the convergence, convergence rate, and monotonicity of its reparameterized counterpart; importantly, we show that the reparameterized LADMM enjoys a faster convergence rate. Notably, the proposed reparameterization theory and methodology are applicable to the estimation of both high-dimensional covariance and precision matrices. We validate the effectiveness of our method by comparing it with several classical optimization algorithms across different structures and dimensions of high-dimensional matrices.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Sharper Generalization Bounds for Transformer

This paper studies generalization error bounds for Transformer models. Based on the offset Rademacher complexity, we derive sharper generalization bounds for different Transformer architectures, including single-layer single-head, single-layer multi-head, and multi-layer Transformers. We first express the excess risk of Transformers in terms of the offset Rademacher complexity. By exploiting its connection with the empirical covering numbers of the corresponding hypothesis spaces, we obtain excess risk bounds that achieve optimal convergence rates up to constant factors. We then derive refined excess risk bounds by upper bounding the covering numbers of Transformer hypothesis spaces using matrix ranks and matrix norms, leading to precise, architecture-dependent generalization bounds. Finally, we relax the boundedness assumption on feature mappings and extend our theoretical results to settings with unbounded (sub-Gaussian) features and heavy-tailed distributions.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Adaptive Robust Estimator for Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

Multi-agent collaboration has emerged as a powerful paradigm for enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models, yet it suffers from interaction-level ambiguity that blurs generation, critique, and revision, making credit assignment across agents difficult. Moreover, policy optimization in this setting is vulnerable to heavy-tailed and noisy rewards, which can bias advantage estimation and trigger unstable or even divergent training. To address both issues, we propose a robust multi-agent reinforcement learning framework for collaborative reasoning, consisting of two components: Dual-Agent Answer-Critique-Rewrite (DACR) and an Adaptive Robust Estimator (ARE). DACR decomposes reasoning into a structured three-stage pipeline: answer, critique, and rewrite, while enabling explicit attribution of each agent's marginal contribution to its partner's performance. ARE provides robust estimation of batch experience means during multi-agent policy optimization. Across mathematical reasoning and embodied intelligence benchmarks, even under noisy rewards, our method consistently outperforms the baseline in both homogeneous and heterogeneous settings. These results indicate stronger robustness to reward noise and more stable training dynamics, effectively preventing optimization failures caused by noisy reward signals.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Optimal low-rank stochastic gradient estimation for LLM training

Large language model (LLM) training is often bottlenecked by memory constraints and stochastic gradient noise in extremely high-dimensional parameter spaces. Motivated by empirical evidence that many LLM gradient matrices are effectively low-rank during training, we present an unbiased, memory-efficient, low-rank matrix estimator with the lowest variance that is applicable across common stochastic gradient estimation paradigms. The core idea is to project a high-dimensional stochastic gradient estimator onto a random low-dimensional subspace and lift it back, reducing memory while keeping the estimator unbiased and controlling mean-squared error via an optimally designed projection distribution, including Haar--Stiefel projections. The projection distribution is derived by solving a constrained functional optimization problem, yielding an optimal random projector that guides algorithm design. Empirically, the resulting low-rank gradient estimators deliver both practical memory savings and improved training behavior. In RoBERTa-large fine-tuning, our method attains the lowest peak GPU memory among compared methods (e.g., 3.83GB versus 16.7GB for full BP) while remaining competitive in accuracy; in autoregressive LLM pretraining (LLaMA-20M/60M/100M), our method outperforms the traditional methods, supporting the benefit of the proposed optimal projection strategy.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Omni-Masked Gradient Descent: Memory-Efficient Optimization via Mask Traversal with Improved Convergence

Memory-efficient optimization methods have recently gained increasing attention for scaling full-parameter training of large language models under the GPU-memory bottleneck. Existing approaches either lack clear convergence guarantees, or only achieve the standard ${\mathcal{O}}(\epsilon^{-4})$ iteration complexity in the nonconvex settings. We propose Omni-Masked Gradient Descent (OMGD), an optimization method based on mask traversal for memory efficient training, and provide a nonconvex convergence analysis that establishes a strictly improved iteration complexity of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\epsilon^{-3})$ for finding an $\epsilon$-approximate stationary point. Empirically, OMGD is a lightweight, plug-and-play approach that integrates seamlessly into most mainstream optimizers, yielding consistent improvements over competitive baselines in both fine-tuning and pre-training tasks.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Nonparametric Bayesian Optimization for General Rewards

This work focuses on Bayesian optimization (BO) under reward model uncertainty. We propose the first BO algorithm that achieves no-regret guarantee in a general reward setting, requiring only Lipschitz continuity of the objective function and accommodating a broad class of measurement noise. The core of our approach is a novel surrogate model, termed as infinite Gaussian process ($\infty$-GP). It is a Bayesian nonparametric model that places a prior on the space of reward distributions, enabling it to represent a substantially broader class of reward models than classical Gaussian process (GP). The $\infty$-GP is used in combination with Thompson Sampling (TS) to enable effective exploration and exploitation. Correspondingly, we develop a new TS regret analysis framework for general rewards, which relates the regret to the total variation distance between the surrogate model and the true reward distribution. Furthermore, with a truncated Gibbs sampling procedure, our method is computationally scalable, incurring minimal additional memory and computational complexities compared to classical GP. Empirical results demonstrate state-of-the-art performance, particularly in settings with non-stationary, heavy-tailed, or other ill-conditioned rewards.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

LLM-Inspired Pretrain-Then-Finetune for Small-Data, Large-Scale Optimization

We consider small-data, large-scale decision problems in which a firm must make many operational decisions simultaneously (e.g., across a large product portfolio) while observing only a few, potentially noisy, data points per instance. Inspired by the success of large language models (LLMs), we propose a pretrain-then-finetune approach built on a designed Transformer model to address this challenge. The model is first pretrained on large-scale, domain-informed synthetic data that encode managerial knowledge and structural features of the decision environment, and is then fine-tuned on real observations. This new pipeline offers two complementary advantages: pretraining injects domain knowledge into the learning process and enables the training of high-capacity models using abundant synthetic data, while finetuning adapts the pretrained model to the operational environment and improves alignment with the true data-generating regime. While we have leveraged the Transformer's state-of-the-art representational capacity, particularly its attention mechanism, to efficiently extract cross-task structure, our approach is not an off-the-shelf application. Instead, it relies on problem-specific architectural design and a tailored training procedure to match the decision setting. Theoretically, we develop the first comprehensive error analysis regarding Transformer learning in relevant contexts, establishing nonasymptotic guarantees that validate the method's effectiveness. Critically, our analysis reveals how pretraining and fine-tuning jointly determine performance, with the dominant contribution governed by whichever is more favorable. In particular, finetuning exhibits an economies-of-scale effect, whereby transfer learning becomes increasingly effective as the number of instances grows.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

InterCorpRel-LLM: Enhancing Financial Relational Understanding with Graph-Language Models

Identifying inter-firm relationships such as supply and competitive ties is critical for financial analysis and corporate governance, yet remains challenging due to the scale, sparsity, and contextual dependence of corporate data. Graph-based methods capture structure but miss semantic depth, while large language models (LLMs) excel at text but remain limited in their ability to represent relational dependencies. To address this, we propose InterCorpRel-LLM, a cross-modal framework that integrates GNNs with LLMs, supported by a proprietary dataset derived from FactSet supply chain records and three tailored training tasks: company graph matching, industry classification, and supply relation prediction. This design enables effective joint modeling of structure and semantics. Experiments show that InterCorpRel-LLM substantially outperforms strong baselines, including GPT-5, on a supply relation identification task, achieving an F-score of 0.8543 vs. 0.2287 with only a 7B-parameter backbone and lightweight training. The model also generalizes to zero-shot competitor identification, underscoring its ability to capture nuanced inter-firm dynamics. Our framework thus provides analysts and strategists with a robust tool for mapping and reasoning about complex corporate networks, enhancing decision-making and risk management in dynamic markets.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

Stochastic Approximation Methods for Distortion Risk Measure Optimization

Distortion Risk Measures (DRMs) capture risk preferences in decision-making and serve as general criteria for managing uncertainty. This paper proposes gradient descent algorithms for DRM optimization based on two dual representations: the Distortion-Measure (DM) form and Quantile-Function (QF) form. The DM-form employs a three-timescale algorithm to track quantiles, compute their gradients, and update decision variables, utilizing the Generalized Likelihood Ratio and kernel-based density estimation. The QF-form provides a simpler two-timescale approach that avoids the need for complex quantile gradient estimation. A hybrid form integrates both approaches, applying the DM-form for robust performance around distortion function jumps and the QF-form for efficiency in smooth regions. Proofs of strong convergence and convergence rates for the proposed algorithms are provided. In particular, the DM-form achieves an optimal rate of $O(k^{-4/7})$, while the QF-form attains a faster rate of $O(k^{-2/3})$. Numerical experiments confirm their effectiveness and demonstrate substantial improvements over baselines in robust portfolio selection tasks. The method's scalability is further illustrated through integration into deep reinforcement learning. Specifically, a DRM-based Proximal Policy Optimization algorithm is developed and applied to multi-echelon dynamic inventory management, showcasing its practical applicability.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

Closing the Loop: Coordinating Inventory and Recommendation via Deep Reinforcement Learning on Multiple Timescales

Effective cross-functional coordination is essential for enhancing firm-wide profitability, particularly in the face of growing organizational complexity and scale. Recent advances in artificial intelligence, especially in reinforcement learning (RL), offer promising avenues to address this fundamental challenge. This paper proposes a unified multi-agent RL framework tailored for joint optimization across distinct functional modules, exemplified via coordinating inventory replenishment and personalized product recommendation. We first develop an integrated theoretical model to capture the intricate interplay between these functions and derive analytical benchmarks that characterize optimal coordination. The analysis reveals synchronized adjustment patterns across products and over time, highlighting the importance of coordinated decision-making. Leveraging these insights, we design a novel multi-timescale multi-agent RL architecture that decomposes policy components according to departmental functions and assigns distinct learning speeds based on task complexity and responsiveness. Our model-free multi-agent design improves scalability and deployment flexibility, while multi-timescale updates enhance convergence stability and adaptability across heterogeneous decisions. We further establish the asymptotic convergence of the proposed algorithm. Extensive simulation experiments demonstrate that the proposed approach significantly improves profitability relative to siloed decision-making frameworks, while the behaviors of the trained RL agents align closely with the managerial insights from our theoretical model. Taken together, this work provides a scalable, interpretable RL-based solution to enable effective cross-functional coordination in complex business settings.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2025

RiskPO: Risk-based Policy Optimization via Verifiable Reward for LLM Post-Training

Reinforcement learning with verifiable reward has recently emerged as a central paradigm for post-training large language models (LLMs); however, prevailing mean-based methods, such as Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), suffer from entropy collapse and limited reasoning gains. We argue that these issues stem from overemphasizing high-probability output sequences while neglecting rare but informative reasoning paths. To address these challenges, we propose Risk-based Policy Optimization (RiskPO), which substitutes classical mean-based objectives with principled risk measures. Specifically, we introduce a Mixed Value-at-Risk objective that integrates weighted attention over multiple regions of the reward distribution, thereby amplifying gradient signals on challenging instances and preventing overconfident convergence. We further design a bundling scheme that aggregates multiple questions into bundles, thus enriching the feedback signal and yielding more stable and informative training dynamics. Theoretically, we prove that the risk-averse update alleviates entropy collapse and promotes exploration. Numerically, RiskPO achieves consistent and significant improvements in mathematical reasoning, multi-modal reasoning, and code generation benchmarks, surpassing GRPO and its variants on both Pass@1 and Pass@k metrics. Our results demonstrate that risk-based optimization provides a rigorous and effective paradigm for enhancing LLM reasoning capabilities.

cs.LG↗