arXiv subjects

Ying Jin

Publications and source records attributed to Ying Jin.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2026

Online Selective Conformal Prediction with Asymmetric Rules: A Permutation Test Approach

Selective conformal prediction aims to construct prediction sets with valid coverage for a test unit conditional on it being selected by a data-driven mechanism. While existing methods in the offline setting handle any selection mechanism that is permutation invariant to the labeled data, their extension to the online setting -- where data arrives sequentially and later decisions depend on earlier ones -- is challenged by the fact that the selection mechanism is naturally asymmetric. As such, existing methods only address a limited collection of selection mechanisms. In this paper, we propose PErmutation-based Mondrian Conformal Inference (PEMI), a general permutation-based framework for selective conformal prediction with arbitrary asymmetric selection rules. Motivated by full and Mondrian conformal prediction, PEMI identifies all permutations of the observed data (or a Monte-Carlo subset thereof) that lead to the same selection event, and calibrates a prediction set using conformity scores over this selection-preserving reference set. Under standard exchangeability conditions, our prediction sets achieve finite-sample exact selection-conditional coverage for any asymmetric selection mechanism and any prediction model. PEMI naturally incorporates additional offline labeled data, extends to selection mechanisms with multiple test samples, and achieves FCR control with fine-grained selection taxonomies. We further work out several efficient instantiations for commonly-used online selection rules, including covariate-based rules, conformal p/e-values-based procedures, and selection based on earlier outcomes. Finally, we demonstrate the efficacy of our methods across various selection rules on a real drug discovery dataset and investigate their performance via simulations.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

The Illusion of Readiness in Health AI

Large language models have demonstrated remarkable performance in a wide range of medical benchmarks. Yet underneath the seemingly promising results lie salient growth areas, especially in cutting-edge frontiers such as multimodal reasoning. In this paper, we introduce a series of adversarial stress tests to systematically assess the robustness of flagship models and medical benchmarks. Our study reveals prevalent brittleness in the presence of simple adversarial transformations: leading systems can guess the right answer even with key inputs removed, yet may get confused by the slightest prompt alterations, while fabricating convincing yet flawed reasoning traces. Using clinician-guided rubrics, we demonstrate that popular medical benchmarks vary widely in what they truly measure. Our study reveals significant competency gaps of frontier AI in attaining real-world readiness for health applications. If we want AI to earn trust in healthcare, we must demand more than leaderboard wins and must hold AI systems accountable to ensure robustness, sound reasoning, and alignment with real medical demands.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Cross-Balancing for Data-Informed Design and Efficient Analysis of Observational Studies

Causal inference starts with a simple idea: compare groups that differ by treatment, not much else. Traditionally, similar groups are constructed using only observed covariates; however, it remains a long-standing challenge to incorporate available outcome data into the study design while preserving valid inference. In this paper, we study the general problem of covariate adjustment, effect estimation, and statistical inference when balancing features are constructed or selected with the aid of outcome information from the data. We propose cross-balancing, a method that uses sample splitting to separate the error in feature construction from the error in weight estimation. Our framework addresses two cases: one where the features are learned functions and one where they are selected from a potentially high-dimensional dictionary. In both cases, we establish mild and general conditions under which cross-balancing produces consistent, asymptotically normal, and efficient estimators. In the learned-function case, cross-balancing achieves finite-sample bias reduction relative to plug-in-type estimators, and is multiply robust when the learned features converge at slow rates. In the variable-selection case, cross-balancing only requires a product condition on how well the selected variables approximate true functions. We illustrate cross-balancing in extensive simulations and an observational study, showing that careful use of outcome information can substantially improve both estimation and inference while maintaining interpretability.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

ACS: An interactive framework for conformal selection

This paper presents adaptive conformal selection (ACS), an interactive framework for model-free selection with guaranteed error control. Building on conformal selection (Jin and Candès, 2023b), ACS generalizes the approach to support human-in-the-loop adaptive data analysis. Under the ACS framework, we can partially reuse the data to boost the selection power, make decisions on the fly while exploring the data, and incorporate new information or preferences as they arise. The key to ACS is a carefully designed principle that controls the information available for decision making, allowing the data analyst to explore the data adaptively while maintaining rigorous control of the false discovery rate (FDR). Based on the ACS framework, we provide concrete selection algorithms for various goals, including model update/selection, diversified selection, and incorporating newly available labeled data. The effectiveness of ACS is demonstrated through extensive numerical simulations and real-data applications in large language model (LLM) deployment and drug discovery.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

UniCombine: Unified Multi-Conditional Combination with Diffusion Transformer

With the rapid development of diffusion models in image generation, the demand for more powerful and flexible controllable frameworks is increasing. Although existing methods can guide generation beyond text prompts, the challenge of effectively combining multiple conditional inputs while maintaining consistency with all of them remains unsolved. To address this, we introduce UniCombine, a DiT-based multi-conditional controllable generative framework capable of handling any combination of conditions, including but not limited to text prompts, spatial maps, and subject images. Specifically, we introduce a novel Conditional MMDiT Attention mechanism and incorporate a trainable LoRA module to build both the training-free and training-based versions. Additionally, we propose a new pipeline to construct SubjectSpatial200K, the first dataset designed for multi-conditional generative tasks covering both the subject-driven and spatially-aligned conditions. Extensive experimental results on multi-conditional generation demonstrate the outstanding universality and powerful capability of our approach with state-of-the-art performance.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Policy learning "without" overlap: Pessimism and generalized empirical Bernstein's inequality

This paper studies offline policy learning, which aims at utilizing observations collected a priori (from either fixed or adaptively evolving behavior policies) to learn an optimal individualized decision rule that achieves the best overall outcomes for a given population. Existing policy learning methods rely on a uniform overlap assumption, i.e., the propensities of exploring all actions for all individual characteristics must be lower bounded. As one has no control over the data collection process, this assumption can be unrealistic in many situations, especially when the behavior policies are allowed to evolve over time with diminishing propensities for certain actions. In this paper, we propose Pessimistic Policy Learning (PPL), a new algorithm that optimizes lower confidence bounds (LCBs) -- instead of point estimates -- of the policy values. The LCBs are constructed using knowledge of the behavior policies for collecting the offline data. Without assuming any uniform overlap condition, we establish a data-dependent upper bound for the suboptimality of our algorithm, which only depends on (i) the overlap for the optimal policy, and (ii) the complexity of the policy class we optimize over. As an implication, for adaptively collected data, we ensure efficient policy learning as long as the propensities for optimal actions are lower bounded over time, while those for suboptimal ones are allowed to diminish arbitrarily fast. In our theoretical analysis, we develop a new self-normalized type concentration inequality for inverse-propensity-weighting estimators, generalizing the well-known empirical Bernstein's inequality to unbounded and non-i.i.d. data. We complement our theory with an efficient optimization algorithm via Majorization-Minimization and policy tree search, as well as extensive simulation studies and real-world applications that demonstrate the efficacy of PPL.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Cross-Layer Feature Pyramid Transformer for Small Object Detection in Aerial Images

Object detection in aerial images has always been a challenging task due to the generally small size of the objects. Most current detectors prioritize the development of new detection frameworks, often overlooking research on fundamental components such as feature pyramid networks. In this paper, we introduce the Cross-Layer Feature Pyramid Transformer (CFPT), a novel upsampler-free feature pyramid network designed specifically for small object detection in aerial images. CFPT incorporates two meticulously designed attention blocks with linear computational complexity: Cross-Layer Channel-Wise Attention (CCA) and Cross-Layer Spatial-Wise Attention (CSA). CCA achieves cross-layer interaction by dividing channel-wise token groups to perceive cross-layer global information along the spatial dimension, while CSA enables cross-layer interaction by dividing spatial-wise token groups to perceive cross-layer global information along the channel dimension. By integrating these modules, CFPT enables efficient cross-layer interaction in a single step, thereby avoiding the semantic gap and information loss associated with element-wise summation and layer-by-layer transmission. In addition, CFPT incorporates global contextual information, which improves detection performance for small objects. To further enhance location awareness during cross-layer interaction, we propose the Cross-Layer Consistent Relative Positional Encoding (CCPE) based on inter-layer mutual receptive fields. We evaluate the effectiveness of CFPT on three challenging object detection datasets in aerial images: VisDrone2019-DET, TinyPerson, and xView. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CFPT outperforms state-of-the-art feature pyramid networks while incurring lower computational costs. The code is available at https://github.com/duzw9311/CFPT.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

X-Reasoner: Towards Generalizable Reasoning Across Modalities and Domains

Recent proprietary models (e.g., o3) have begun to demonstrate strong multimodal reasoning capabilities. Yet, most existing open-source research concentrates on training text-only reasoning models, with evaluations limited to mainly mathematical and general-domain tasks. Therefore, it remains unclear how to effectively extend reasoning capabilities beyond text input and general domains. This paper explores a fundamental research question: Is reasoning generalizable across modalities and domains? Our findings support an affirmative answer: General-domain text-based post-training can enable such strong generalizable reasoning. Leveraging this finding, we introduce X-Reasoner, a vision-language model post-trained solely on general-domain text for generalizable reasoning, using a two-stage approach: an initial supervised fine-tuning phase with distilled long chain-of-thoughts, followed by reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards. Experiments show that X-Reasoner successfully transfers reasoning capabilities to both multimodal and out-of-domain settings, outperforming existing state-of-the-art models trained with in-domain and multimodal data across various general and medical benchmarks (Figure 1). Additionally, we find that X-Reasoner's performance in specialized domains can be further enhanced through continued training on domain-specific text-only data. Building upon this, we introduce X-Reasoner-Med, a medical-specialized variant that achieves new state of the art on numerous text-only and multimodal medical benchmarks.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Dual-Interrelated Diffusion Model for Few-Shot Anomaly Image Generation

The performance of anomaly inspection in industrial manufacturing is constrained by the scarcity of anomaly data. To overcome this challenge, researchers have started employing anomaly generation approaches to augment the anomaly dataset. However, existing anomaly generation methods suffer from limited diversity in the generated anomalies and struggle to achieve a seamless blending of this anomaly with the original image. Moreover, the generated mask is usually not aligned with the generated anomaly. In this paper, we overcome these challenges from a new perspective, simultaneously generating a pair of the overall image and the corresponding anomaly part. We propose DualAnoDiff, a novel diffusion-based few-shot anomaly image generation model, which can generate diverse and realistic anomaly images by using a dual-interrelated diffusion model, where one of them is employed to generate the whole image while the other one generates the anomaly part. Moreover, we extract background and shape information to mitigate the distortion and blurriness phenomenon in few-shot image generation. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of our proposed model over state-of-the-art methods in terms of diversity, realism and the accuracy of mask. Overall, our approach significantly improves the performance of downstream anomaly inspection tasks, including anomaly detection, anomaly localization, and anomaly classification tasks.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Confidence on the Focal: Conformal Prediction with Selection-Conditional Coverage

Conformal prediction builds marginally valid prediction intervals that cover the unknown outcome of a randomly drawn test point with a prescribed probability. However, in practice, data-driven methods are often used to identify specific test unit(s) of interest, requiring uncertainty quantification tailored to these focal units. In such cases, marginally valid conformal prediction intervals may fail to provide valid coverage for the focal unit(s) due to selection bias. This paper presents a general framework for constructing a prediction set with finite-sample exact coverage, conditional on the unit being selected by a given procedure. The general form of our method accommodates arbitrary selection rules that are invariant to the permutation of the calibration units, and generalizes Mondrian Conformal Prediction to multiple test units and non-equivariant classifiers. We also work out computationally efficient implementation of our framework for a number of realistic selection rules, including top-K selection, optimization-based selection, selection based on conformal p-values, and selection based on properties of preliminary conformal prediction sets. The performance of our methods is demonstrated via applications in drug discovery and health risk prediction.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Automated Hypothesis Validation with Agentic Sequential Falsifications

Hypotheses are central to information acquisition, decision-making, and discovery. However, many real-world hypotheses are abstract, high-level statements that are difficult to validate directly. This challenge is further intensified by the rise of hypothesis generation from Large Language Models (LLMs), which are prone to hallucination and produce hypotheses in volumes that make manual validation impractical. Here we propose Popper, an agentic framework for rigorous automated validation of free-form hypotheses. Guided by Karl Popper's principle of falsification, Popper validates a hypothesis using LLM agents that design and execute falsification experiments targeting its measurable implications. A novel sequential testing framework ensures strict Type-I error control while actively gathering evidence from diverse observations, whether drawn from existing data or newly conducted procedures. We demonstrate Popper on six domains including biology, economics, and sociology. Popper delivers robust error control, high power, and scalability. Furthermore, compared to human scientists, Popper achieved comparable performance in validating complex biological hypotheses while reducing time by 10 folds, providing a scalable, rigorous solution for hypothesis validation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Beyond Reweighting: On the Predictive Role of Covariate Shift in Effect Generalization

Many existing approaches to generalizing statistical inference amidst distribution shift operate under the covariate shift assumption, which posits that the conditional distribution of unobserved variables given observable ones is invariant across populations. However, recent empirical investigations have demonstrated that adjusting for shift in observed variables (covariate shift) is often insufficient for generalization. In other words, covariate shift does not typically ``explain away'' the distribution shift between settings. As such, addressing the unknown yet non-negligible shift in the unobserved variables given observed ones (conditional shift) is crucial for generalizable inference. In this paper, we present a series of empirical evidence from two large-scale multi-site replication studies to support a new role of covariate shift in ``predicting'' the strength of the unknown conditional shift. Analyzing 680 studies across 65 sites, we find that even though the conditional shift is non-negligible, its strength can often be bounded by that of the observable covariate shift. However, this pattern only emerges when the two sources of shifts are quantified by our proposed standardized, ``pivotal'' measures. We then interpret this phenomenon by connecting it to similar patterns that can be theoretically derived from a random distribution shift model. Finally, we demonstrate that exploiting the predictive role of covariate shift leads to reliable and efficient uncertainty quantification for target estimates in generalization tasks with partially observed data. Overall, our empirical and theoretical analyses suggest a new way to approach the problem of distributional shift, generalizability, and external validity.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2024

DAug: Diffusion-based Channel Augmentation for Radiology Image Retrieval and Classification

Medical image understanding requires meticulous examination of fine visual details, with particular regions requiring additional attention. While radiologists build such expertise over years of experience, it is challenging for AI models to learn where to look with limited amounts of training data. This limitation results in unsatisfying robustness in medical image understanding. To address this issue, we propose Diffusion-based Feature Augmentation (DAug), a portable method that improves a perception model's performance with a generative model's output. Specifically, we extend a radiology image to multiple channels, with the additional channels being the heatmaps of regions where diseases tend to develop. A diffusion-based image-to-image translation model was used to generate such heatmaps conditioned on selected disease classes. Our method is motivated by the fact that generative models learn the distribution of normal and abnormal images, and such knowledge is complementary to image understanding tasks. In addition, we propose the Image-Text-Class Hybrid Contrastive learning to utilize both text and class labels. With two novel approaches combined, our method surpasses baseline models without changing the model architecture, and achieves state-of-the-art performance on both medical image retrieval and classification tasks.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

Dynamic Prediction of High-density Generalized Functional Data with Fast Generalized Functional Principal Component Analysis

Dynamic prediction, which typically refers to the prediction of future outcomes using historical records, is often of interest in biomedical research. For datasets with large sample sizes, high measurement density, and complex correlation structures, traditional methods are often infeasible because of the computational burden associated with both data scale and model complexity. Moreover, many models do not directly facilitate out-of-sample predictions for generalized outcomes. To address these issues, we develop a novel approach for dynamic predictions based on a recently developed method estimating complex patterns of variation for exponential family data: fast Generalized Functional Principal Components Analysis (fGFPCA). Our method is able to handle large-scale, high-density repeated measures much more efficiently with its implementation feasible even on personal computational resources (e.g., a standard desktop or laptop computer). The proposed method makes highly flexible and accurate predictions of future trajectories for data that exhibit high degrees of nonlinearity, and allows for out-of-sample predictions to be obtained without reestimating any parameters. A simulation study is designed and implemented to illustrate the advantages of this method. To demonstrate its practical utility, we also conducted a case study to predict diurnal active/inactive patterns using accelerometry data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2011-2014. Both the simulation study and the data application demonstrate the better predictive performance and high computational efficiency of the proposed method compared to existing methods. The proposed method also obtains more personalized prediction that improves as more information becomes available, which is an essential goal of dynamic prediction that other methods fail to achieve.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

LDA-AQU: Adaptive Query-guided Upsampling via Local Deformable Attention

Feature upsampling is an essential operation in constructing deep convolutional neural networks. However, existing upsamplers either lack specific feature guidance or necessitate the utilization of high-resolution feature maps, resulting in a loss of performance and flexibility. In this paper, we find that the local self-attention naturally has the feature guidance capability, and its computational paradigm aligns closely with the essence of feature upsampling (\ie feature reassembly of neighboring points). Therefore, we introduce local self-attention into the upsampling task and demonstrate that the majority of existing upsamplers can be regarded as special cases of upsamplers based on local self-attention. Considering the potential semantic gap between upsampled points and their neighboring points, we further introduce the deformation mechanism into the upsampler based on local self-attention, thereby proposing LDA-AQU. As a novel dynamic kernel-based upsampler, LDA-AQU utilizes the feature of queries to guide the model in adaptively adjusting the position and aggregation weight of neighboring points, thereby meeting the upsampling requirements across various complex scenarios. In addition, LDA-AQU is lightweight and can be easily integrated into various model architectures. We evaluate the effectiveness of LDA-AQU across four dense prediction tasks: object detection, instance segmentation, panoptic segmentation, and semantic segmentation. LDA-AQU consistently outperforms previous state-of-the-art upsamplers, achieving performance enhancements of 1.7 AP, 1.5 AP, 2.0 PQ, and 2.5 mIoU compared to the baseline models in the aforementioned four tasks, respectively. Code is available at \url{https://github.com/duzw9311/LDA-AQU}.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

Optimized Conformal Selection: Powerful Selective Inference After Conformity Score Optimization

Model selection/optimization in conformal inference is challenging, since it may break the exchangeability between labeled and unlabeled data. We study this problem in the context of conformal selection, which uses conformal p-values to select ``interesting'' instances with large unobserved labels from a pool of unlabeled data, while controlling the FDR in finite sample. For validity, existing solutions require the model choice to be independent of the data used to construct the p-values and calibrate the selection set. However, when presented with many model choices and limited labeled data, it is desirable to (i) select the best model in a data-driven manner, and (ii) mitigate power loss due to sample splitting. This paper presents OptCS, a general framework that allows valid statistical testing (selection) after flexible data-driven model optimization. We introduce general conditions under which OptCS constructs valid conformal p-values despite substantial data reuse and handles complex p-value dependencies to maintain finite-sample FDR control via a novel multiple testing procedure. We instantiate this general recipe to propose three FDR-controlling procedures, each optimizing the models differently: (i) selecting the most powerful one among multiple pre-trained candidate models, (ii) using all data for model fitting without sample splitting, and (iii) combining full-sample model fitting and selection. We demonstrate the efficacy of our methods via simulation studies and real applications in drug discovery and alignment of large language models in radiology report generation.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Conformal Alignment: Knowing When to Trust Foundation Models with Guarantees

Before deploying outputs from foundation models in high-stakes tasks, it is imperative to ensure that they align with human values. For instance, in radiology report generation, reports generated by a vision-language model must align with human evaluations before their use in medical decision-making. This paper presents Conformal Alignment, a general framework for identifying units whose outputs meet a user-specified alignment criterion. It is guaranteed that on average, a prescribed fraction of selected units indeed meet the alignment criterion, regardless of the foundation model or the data distribution. Given any pre-trained model and new units with model-generated outputs, Conformal Alignment leverages a set of reference data with ground-truth alignment status to train an alignment predictor. It then selects new units whose predicted alignment scores surpass a data-dependent threshold, certifying their corresponding outputs as trustworthy. Through applications to question answering and radiology report generation, we demonstrate that our method is able to accurately identify units with trustworthy outputs via lightweight training over a moderate amount of reference data. En route, we investigate the informativeness of various features in alignment prediction and combine them with standard models to construct the alignment predictor.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

MedImageInsight: An Open-Source Embedding Model for General Domain Medical Imaging

In this work, we present MedImageInsight, an open-source medical imaging embedding model. MedImageInsight is trained on medical images with associated text and labels across a diverse collection of domains, including X-Ray, CT, MRI, dermoscopy, OCT, fundus photography, ultrasound, histopathology, and mammography. Rigorous evaluations demonstrate MedImageInsight's ability to achieve state-of-the-art (SOTA) or human expert level performance across classification, image-image search, and fine-tuning tasks. Specifically, on public datasets, MedImageInsight achieves SOTA in CT 3D medical image retrieval, as well as SOTA in disease classification and search for chest X-ray, dermatology, and OCT imaging. Furthermore, MedImageInsight achieves human expert performance in bone age estimation (on both public and partner data), as well as AUC above 0.9 in most other domains. When paired with a text decoder, MedImageInsight achieves near SOTA level single image report findings generation with less than 10\% the parameters of other models. Compared to fine-tuning GPT-4o with only MIMIC-CXR data for the same task, MedImageInsight outperforms in clinical metrics, but underperforms on lexical metrics where GPT-4o sets a new SOTA. Importantly for regulatory purposes, MedImageInsight can generate ROC curves, adjust sensitivity and specificity based on clinical need, and provide evidence-based decision support through image-image search (which can also enable retrieval augmented generation). In an independent clinical evaluation of image-image search in chest X-ray, MedImageInsight outperformed every other publicly available foundation model evaluated by large margins (over 6 points AUC), and significantly outperformed other models in terms of AI fairness (across age and gender). We hope releasing MedImageInsight will help enhance collective progress in medical imaging AI research and development.

eess.IV↗